TFPS - TradFi-Pressure-Score (Adaptive)

The data-driven answer to an irreversible market reality.
This indicator quantifies the combined pressure from the S&P 500, VIX, DXY, and US10Y, whose correlation to crypto has reached peak values of 0.87. Your decisive macro edge, in real-time.

This indicator is built on a fundamental analysis of market data from the last five years. The analysis proves an irreversible transformation: The crypto market has evolved into a high-beta risk asset, its fate inextricably linked to Traditional Finance (TradFi).

The empirical data is clear:

• Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged version of the S&P 500.
  
• The correlation to stock indices, with peak values of up to 0.87, is statistically highly significant.
  
• The "digital gold" safe-haven narrative is refuted by the data; the correlation to gold (0.04) is virtually non-existent and statistically insignificant.
  

This means: Standard indicators like RSI or MACD are insufficient for today's market conditions. They only see price, ignoring the powerful external context that now dominates price action.

The TradFi Pressure Score (TFPS) is the answer to this data-driven reality. It's your institutional-grade macro dashboard, aggregating the four most dominant external forces into a single, actionable score:

1. S&P 500 (SPY): The pulse of global risk appetite. A rising S&P signals a "risk-on" environment, fueling capital flows into crypto.
   
2. VIX: The market's "Fear Gauge". A rising VIX signals a "risk-off" flight to safety, draining liquidity from crypto.
   
3. DXY (US-Dollar Index): The counter-pole to risk assets. A strong Dollar (rising DXY) tightens global liquidity, creating significant headwinds for Bitcoin.
   
4. US 10Y Yield: The opportunity cost of capital. Rising yields make risk-free assets more attractive, pulling capital away from non-yielding assets like crypto.
   

What makes TFPS truly unique?
Dynamic Weighting (its secret weapon): Which factor matters most today? The DXY or the VIX? TFPS continuously analyzes the correlation of all four factors to your chosen asset (e.g., Bitcoin) and automatically adjusts their weight in real-time. This ensures you're always focused on what's currently driving the market.
Adaptive Engine: What drives a 15-minute chart is different from a daily chart. The TFPS engine automatically adapts its lookback periods and calculations to your chosen timeframe for optimal relevance.

Clear, Actionable Signals Designed for Traders:
Pressure Line (>0 or <0): Instantly see if the world's largest financial forces are providing a tailwind or a headwind for your trade.
Z-Score (Extreme Readings): Get early warnings of extreme macro "Greed" or "Fear". Readings above +2 or below -2 have historically pinpointed moments of market exhaustion that often precede major trend reversals.
Regime Change: A fundamental shift in the nature of TradFi pressure is visualized with a clear signal, providing unambiguous macro insights.
Lead/Lag Status: Gain a critical edge by knowing who's in the driver's seat. The dashboard tells you if TradFi is LEADING the price action or if crypto is moving independently, allowing you to focus on the right information source.

This is a private beta. I am granting exclusive access to a limited number of traders who understand this new market reality. In exchange for your valuable feedback, you will be among the first to leverage what I believe is the new standard for macro analysis in crypto trading.

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