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Sudden MOVE Spikes Buy Signal
This Pine Script indicator, titled "Sudden MOVE Spikes Buy Signal", is designed for TradingView charts to identify potential buy opportunities in risk assets (e.g., BTC, stocks, or any charted symbol) based on spikes in the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury bond volatility, often called the "VIX for bonds"). It leverages the observation that sharp MOVE spikes above a threshold (indicating bond market stress or illiquidity) have historically preceded liquidity injections from the Fed or Treasury, leading to rallies in risk assets post-2020 (e.g.,
March 2020 COVID crash, October 2022 rate hike volatility, March 2023 banking crisis). The indicator filters out false positives, like the February 2022 geopolitical spike from the Russia-Ukraine invasion, using WTI crude oil price surges as a proxy.Key features:Signal Detection: Fires a "Buy" label when the daily MOVE index crosses above the threshold (default 130) with a sudden rate of change (ROC > 27% over 5 days), signaling potential liquidity-driven bottoms.
Geopolitical Filter: Excludes signals if oil ROC exceeds 20% over 5 days, to avoid non-macro events.
Time Restriction: Only shows signals from January 1, 2020, onward, as the strategy is tuned to the post-COVID regime.
Visuals: Plots a green "Buy" label below the bar on the chart and optionally highlights the bar with a green background (85% opacity) for emphasis.
Alerts: Supports alerts for new signals via TradingView's alert system.
The indicator is versatile and can be applied to any asset chart, though it's optimized for risk assets like cryptocurrencies or equities. Backtesting shows high hit rates for rallies in S&P 500 and BTC after valid signals, but it's a heuristic tool—combine with other analysis for trading decisions.
March 2020 COVID crash, October 2022 rate hike volatility, March 2023 banking crisis). The indicator filters out false positives, like the February 2022 geopolitical spike from the Russia-Ukraine invasion, using WTI crude oil price surges as a proxy.Key features:Signal Detection: Fires a "Buy" label when the daily MOVE index crosses above the threshold (default 130) with a sudden rate of change (ROC > 27% over 5 days), signaling potential liquidity-driven bottoms.
Geopolitical Filter: Excludes signals if oil ROC exceeds 20% over 5 days, to avoid non-macro events.
Time Restriction: Only shows signals from January 1, 2020, onward, as the strategy is tuned to the post-COVID regime.
Visuals: Plots a green "Buy" label below the bar on the chart and optionally highlights the bar with a green background (85% opacity) for emphasis.
Alerts: Supports alerts for new signals via TradingView's alert system.
The indicator is versatile and can be applied to any asset chart, though it's optimized for risk assets like cryptocurrencies or equities. Backtesting shows high hit rates for rallies in S&P 500 and BTC after valid signals, but it's a heuristic tool—combine with other analysis for trading decisions.
Skrip dilindungi
Skrip ini diterbitkan sebagai sumber tertutup. Akan tetapi, anda boleh menggunakannya dengan percuma dan tanpa had – ketahui lebih lanjut di sini.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Skrip dilindungi
Skrip ini diterbitkan sebagai sumber tertutup. Akan tetapi, anda boleh menggunakannya dengan percuma dan tanpa had – ketahui lebih lanjut di sini.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.