Z Score Filter

Composite Risk Filter

This indicator works because it aggregates several independent but structurally important stress channels (currency strength, rates, equity volatility, bond volatility, and credit conditions) into a single normalized measure. Each input is transformed into a z-score, meaning the composite does not care about absolute levels, narratives, or regimes; it only measures whether conditions are tightening or easing relative to what has been normal recently. That makes the output robust to inflation, secular trends, and structural shifts that break simpler correlations.

What the indicator captures is not direction but constraint. Markets do not move because risk is “on” or “off”; they move because certain behaviors are more or less permitted under prevailing financial conditions. By identifying when systemic pressure is elevated, relaxed, or neutral, the indicator helps align trade expectations with the environment price is operating in. When used as a filter — not a signal — it reduces false confidence, improves expectancy selection, and keeps price in the primary role where it belongs.