Consumption Oscillator

24 Feb 2023

OVERVIEW
The Consumption Oscillator combines Core Consumer Price Index (USCCPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditure (USPCEPI). It can be a useful tool for understanding inflationary and deflationary pressure in the economy.

CONCEPTS
Defining some thresholds may aid in interpreting the oscillator but interpretation needs context. Also, the thresholds may need adjusting. Overall, using this oscillator in combination with other economic indicators may provide some insights into macroeconomic conditions.

• Strong positive signal: If the oscillator rises above a threshold value of +2, it may be considered a strong positive signal. This could suggest that the CCPI is growing faster than the PCE, indicating stronger inflationary pressure and potentially higher levels of economic growth.
  
  
• Weak positive signal: If the oscillator rises above a threshold value of +1, it may be considered a weak positive signal. This could suggest that the CCPI is growing slightly faster than the PCE, which may still indicate some level of inflationary pressure and moderate economic growth.
  
  
• No signal: If the oscillator is between -1 and +1, it may be considered a neutral signal. This indicates that the CCPI and PCE are growing at roughly the same rate, and there may be no significant inflationary or deflationary pressure in the economy.
  
  
• Weak negative signal: If the oscillator falls below a threshold value of -1, it may be considered a weak negative signal. This could suggest that the PCE is growing slightly faster than the CCPI, which may indicate some level of deflationary pressure and slower economic growth.
  
  
• Strong negative signal: If the oscillator falls below a threshold value of -2, it may be considered a strong negative signal. This could suggest that the PCE is growing much faster than the CCPI, indicating stronger deflationary pressure and potentially lower levels of economic growth