Global M2 Lead

7 hari lalu

Global M2 Lead – Liquidity Forecasting Framework for BTC
Tracks aggregated global M2 money supply across key economies as a forward-looking macro indicator for Bitcoin. Includes correlation modeling and customizable delay parameters.

Full Description:
This script constructs a composite liquidity indicator by aggregating M2 money supply data from multiple major and emerging economies, converted to USD and offset by a customizable time delay (default: 78 days). It aims to serve as a leading macroeconomic signal for Bitcoin price action.

Key Features:

• Aggregates M2 from 20+ economies including the US, Eurozone, China, and Japan
  
• Currency conversion to USD using live FX rates
  
• Offset mechanism to simulate delayed macroeconomic impact on BTC
  
• Rolling correlation calculation (default: 180-day window)
  
• Dynamic coloring based on correlation strength and direction
  
• Configurable correlation label with actionable interpretation
  
• Optional background shading to reflect correlation states
  
• Alerts when correlation crosses defined thresholds
  
• Timeframe-limited to Daily (1D) to ensure macro-consistent data granularity
  

Intended Use Case:
Designed for macro-driven traders, institutional strategists, and data-informed DAO frameworks. This script supports long-term directional positioning based on global liquidity flows and their historical correlation with Bitcoin.

Important:
This script is restricted to the Daily (1D) timeframe due to the low frequency of M2 data updates. Using it on intraday charts may produce misleading signals.

Technical Documentation

Data Sources:

• M2 monetary aggregates from the TradingView ECONOMICS: namespace (e.g., ECONOMICS:USM2, EUM2)
  
• FX rates from FX_IDC feed (e.g., FX_IDC:EURUSD) for USD conversion
  
• Coverage includes both developed and emerging economies
  

Currency Conversion & Aggregation:

• Each M2 value is converted to USD using corresponding FX rates
  
• Sum of all selected economies normalized via scaling divisor (default: 1e12)
  
• Aggregate curve is time-shifted backward by user-defined offset
  

Correlation Analysis:

• Pearson correlation between delayed M2 index and BTC closing price
  
• Window length is user-defined (default: 180 days)
  
• Output is color-coded and optionally displayed as text label
  

Interpretation Framework (Label Logic):

• > +0.7 → Strong positive correlation: BTC likely to follow liquidity
  
• +0.3 to +0.7 → Moderate correlation: macro alignment possible
  
• –0.3 to +0.3 → Low or no correlation: no clear signal
  
• –0.7 to –0.3 → Moderate negative correlation: BTC may diverge
  
• < –0.7 → Strong negative correlation: BTC likely to diverge
  

Visualization Elements:

• Main plot: shifted global M2 composite
  
• Correlation color applied dynamically
  
• Optional label showing percentage and qualitative assessment
  
• Background shading available as toggle
  

Timeframe Guard:

• Script is locked to 1D resolution
  
• In non-daily timeframes, a warning label is displayed
  
• All calculations are suppressed outside 1D
  

Alerts:

• Correlation crosses above +0.3 → Indicates potential macro alignment
  
• Correlation crosses below –0.3 → Signals decoupling or divergence
  

Disclaimer:
This tool provides correlation-based context but does not imply causality. Use alongside other macro indicators and market structure analysis. FX conversions and economic updates may be delayed or revised.

7 hari lalu

Nota Keluaran

Update v1.0 – Branded Final Release (Bitcoin Belezza)
This version introduces final refinements to the Global M2 Lead indicator and officially aligns the script with the Bitcoin Belezza brand.

What’s new:

• Branded title: “Global M2 Lead | Bitcoin Belezza”
  
• Header added with author, copyright, and macro strategy context
  
• Chart screenshot updated to reflect current correlation and labeling structure