[INVX] Post-Earnings Announcement DriftWhat does this strategy do?
This Pine Script strategy implements the Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) strategy, which is a financial market anomaly where a stock's price tends to drift in the direction of the firm's earnings surprise for an extended period of time.
Ref: en.wikipedia.org
An earnings announcement is an official public statement of a company's profitability for a specific time period, typically a quarter or a year. It includes various financial metrics but the most watched figure is the Earnings Per Share (EPS). Analysts estimate the EPS before the announcement, and the actual EPS is compared to this estimate to determine if there was an earnings surprise.
An earnings surprise occurs when the actual EPS is significantly different from the analysts' estimates. A positive earnings surprise indicates that the actual EPS is higher than the estimate, while a negative earnings surprise suggests the EPS is lower than anticipated.
The script takes the following inputs
" Holding periods (bar) " : This input defines the number of periods (or bars) the script will hold a position after the earnings announcement.
" Surprise threshold (%) ": This input sets the minimum percentage for an earnings surprise, which triggers the strategy to enter either a long or short position. In essence, it represents the minimum deviation between the estimated and actual Earnings Per Share (EPS) that will trigger a trade. A higher threshold may lead to fewer, potentially more significant trades, while a lower threshold might result in more frequent, possibly less impactful trades. This parameter allows you to adjust the sensitivity of the strategy to earnings surprises.
Positive earnings surprise
After the earnings announcement, the script compares the actual EPS with the estimated EPS to identify an earnings surprise. If there is a positive earnings surprise, the script will enter a long position. A long position is a bullish strategy where the investor expects the stock price to rise.
Negative earnings surprise
On the other hand, if there is a negative earnings surprise, the script will enter a short position. A short position is a bearish strategy where the investor expects the stock price to fall.
In both scenarios, the position (either long or short) is held for the number of periods specified in the "Holding periods (bar)" input. This strategy is based on the assumption that the stock price will continue to drift in the direction of the earnings surprise for the specified holding period.
Disclaimer: The script provided herein is for educational purposes only. It should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The results of the Pine Script backtesting are hypothetical and should not be considered as a true reflection of the results that might be achieved in a live trading environment. The backtest results are based on historical data and may not take into account certain factors such as actual transaction costs, taxes, or changes in market conditions.
Investors should consult with their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of all invested capital.
Analisis Fundamental
RunRox - Backtesting System (ASMC)Introducing RunRox - Backtesting System (ASMC), a specially designed backtesting system built on the robust structure of our Advanced SMC indicator. This innovative tool evaluates various Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading setups and serves as an automatic optimizer, displaying which entry and exit points have historically shown the best results. With cutting-edge technology, RunRox - Backtesting System (ASMC) provides you with effective strategies, maximizing your trading potential and taking your trading to the next level
🟠 HOW OUR BACKTESTING SYSTEM WORKS
Our backtesting system for the Advanced SMC (ASMC) indicator is meticulously designed to provide traders with a thorough analysis of their Smart Money Concept (SMC) strategies. Here’s an overview of how it works:
🔸 Advanced SMC Structure
Our ASMC indicator is built upon an enhanced SMC structure that integrates the Institutional Distribution Model (IDM), precise retracements, and five types of order blocks (CHoCH OB, IDM OB, Local OB, BOS OB, Extreme OB). These components allow for a detailed understanding of market dynamics and the identification of key trading opportunities.
🔸 Data Integration and Analysis
1. Historical Data Testing:
Our system tests various entry and exit points using historical market data.
The ASMC indicator is used to simulate trades based on predefined SMC setups, evaluating their effectiveness over a specified time period.
Traders can select different parameters such as entry points, stop-loss, and take-profit levels to see how these setups would have performed historically.
2. Entry and Exit Events:
The backtester can simulate trades based on 12 different entry events, 14 target events, and 14 stop-loss events, providing a comprehensive testing framework.
It allows for testing with multiple combinations of entry and exit strategies, ensuring a robust evaluation of trading setups.
3. Order Block Sensitivity:
The system uses the sensitivity settings from the ASMC indicator to determine the most relevant order blocks and fair value gaps (FVGs) for entry and exit points.
It distinguishes between different types of order blocks, helping traders identify strong institutional zones versus local zones.
🔸 Optimization Capabilities
1. Auto-Optimizer:
The backtester includes an auto-optimizer feature that evaluates various setups to find those with the best historical performance.
It automatically adjusts parameters to identify the most effective strategies for both trend-following and counter-trend trading.
2. Stop Loss and Take Profit Optimization:
It optimizes stop-loss and take-profit levels by testing different settings and identifying those that provided the best historical results.
This helps traders refine their risk management and maximize potential returns.
3. Trailing Stop Optimization:
The system also optimizes trailing stops, ensuring that traders can maximize their profits by adjusting their stops dynamically as the market moves.
🔸 Comprehensive Reporting
1. Performance Metrics:
The backtesting system provides detailed reports, including key performance metrics such as Net Profit, Win Rate, Profit Factor, and Max Drawdown.
These metrics help traders understand the historical performance of their strategies and make data-driven decisions.
2. Flexible Settings:
Traders can adjust initial balance, commission rates, and risk per trade settings to simulate real-world trading conditions.
The system supports testing with different leverage settings, allowing for realistic assessments even with tight stop-loss levels.
🔸 Conclusion
The RunRox Backtesting System (ASMC) is a powerful tool for traders seeking to validate and optimize their SMC strategies. By leveraging historical data and sophisticated optimization algorithms, it provides insights into the most effective setups, enhancing trading performance and decision-making.
🟠 HERE ARE THE AVAILABLE FEATURES
Historical backtesting for any setup – Select any entry point, exit point, and various stop-loss options to see the results of your setup on historical data.
Auto-optimizer for finding the best setups – The indicator displays settings that have shown the best results historically, providing valuable insights.
Auto-optimizer for counter-trend setups – Discover entry and exit points for counter-trend trading based on historical performance.
Auto-optimizer for stop-loss – The indicator shows stop-loss points that have been most effective historically.
Auto-optimizer for take-profit – The indicator identifies take-profit points that have performed well in historical trading data.
Auto-optimizer for trailing stop – The indicator presents trailing stop settings that have shown the best historical results.
And much more within our indicator, all of which we will cover in this post. Next, we will showcase the possible entry points, targets, and stop-loss options available for testing your strategies
🟠 ENTRY SETTINGS
12 Event Triggers for Trade Entry
Extr. ChoCh OB
Extr. ChoCh FVG
ChoCh
ChoCh OB
ChoCh FVG
IDM OB
IDM FVG
BoS FVG
BoS OB
BoS
Extr. BoS FVG
Extr. BoS OB
3 Trade Direction Options
Long Only: Enter long positions only
Short Only: Enter short positions only
Long and Short: Enter both long and short positions based on trend
3 Levels for Order Block/FVG Entries
Beginning: Enter the trade at the first touch of the Order Block/FVG
Middle: Enter the trade when the middle of the Order Block/FVG is reached
End: Enter the trade upon full filling of the Order Block/FVG
*Three levels work only for Order Blocks and FVG. For trade entries based on BOS or CHoCH, these settings do not apply as these parameters are not available for these types of entries
You can choose any combination of trade entries imaginable.
🟠 TARGET SETTINGS
14 Target Events, Including Fixed % and Fixed RR (Risk/Reward):
Fixed - % change in price
Fixed RR - Risk Reward per trade
Extr. ChoCh OB
Extr. ChoCh FVG
ChoCh
ChoCh OB
ChoCh FVG
IDM OB
IDM FVG
BoS FVG
BoS OB
BoS
Extr. BoS FVG
Extr. BoS OB
3 Levels of Order Block/FVG for Target
Beginning: Close the trade at the first touch of your target.
Middle: Close the trade at the midpoint of your chosen target.
End: Close the trade when your target is fully filled.
Customizable Parameters
Easily set your Fixed % and Fixed RR targets with a user-friendly input field. This field works only for the Fixed and Fixed RR entry parameters. When selecting a different entry point, this field is ignored
Choose any combination of target events to suit your trading strategy.
🟠 STOPLOSS SETTINGS
14 Possible StopLoss Events Including Entry Orderblock/FVG
Fixed - Fix the loss on the trade when the price moves by N%
Entry Block
Extr. ChoCh OB
Extr. ChoCh FVG
ChoCh
ChoCh OB
ChoCh FVG
IDM OB
IDM FVG
BoS FVG
BoS OB
BoS
Extr. BoS FVG
Extr. BoS OB
3 Levels for Order Blocks/FVG Exits
Beginning: Exit the trade at the first touch of the order block/FVG.
Middle: Exit the trade at the middle of the order block/FVG.
End: Exit the trade at the full completion of the order block/FVG.
Dedicated Field for Setting Fixed % Value
Set a fixed % value in a dedicated field for the Fixed parameter. This field works only for the Fixed parameter. When selecting other exit parameters, this field is ignored.
🟠 ADDITIONAL SETTINGS
Trailing Stop, %
Set a Trailing Stop as a percentage of your trade to potentially increase profit based on historical data.
Move SL to Breakeven, bars
Move your StopLoss to breakeven after exiting the entry zone for a specified number of bars. This can enhance your potential WinRate based on historical performance.
Skip trade if RR less than
This feature allows you to skip trades where the potential Risk-to-Reward ratio is less than the number set in this field.
🟠 EXAMPLE OF MANUAL SETUP
For example, let me show you how it works on the chart. You select entry parameters, stop loss parameters, and take profit parameters for your trades, and the strategy automatically tests this setup on historical data, allowing you to see the results of this strategy.
In the screenshot above, the parameters were as follows:
Trade Entry: CHoCH OB (Beginning)
Stop Loss: Entry Block
Take Profit: Break of BOS
The indicator will automatically test all possible trades on the chart and display the results for this setup.
🟠 AUTO OPTIMIZATION SETTINGS
In the screenshot above, you can see the optimization table displaying various entry points, exits, and stop-loss settings, along with their historical performance results and other parameters. This feature allows you to identify trading setups that have shown the best historical outcomes.
This functionality will enhance your trading approach, providing you with valuable insights based on historical data. You’ll be aware of the Smart Money Concept settings that have historically worked best for any specific chart and timeframe.
Our indicator includes various optimization options designed to help you find the most effective settings based on historical data. There are 5 optimization modes, each offering unique benefits for every trader
Trend Entry - Optimization of the best settings for trend-following trades. The strategy will enter trades only in the direction of the trend. If the trend is upward, it will look for long entry points and vice versa.
Counter Trend Entry - Finding setups against the trend. If the trend is upward, the script will search for short entry points. This is the opposite of trend entry optimization.
Stop Loss - Identifying stop-loss points that showed the best historical performance for the specific setup you have configured. This helps in finding effective exit points to minimize losses.
Take Profit - Determining targets for the configured setup based on historical performance, helping to identify potentially profitable take profit levels.
Trailing Stop - Finding optimal percentages for the trailing stop function based on historical data, which can potentially increase the profit of your trades.
Ability to set parameters for auto-optimization within a specified range. For example, if you choose FixRR TP from 1 to 10, the indicator will automatically test all possible Risk Reward Take Profit variations from 1 to 10 and display the results for each parameter individually.
Ability to set initial deposit parameters, position commissions, and risk per trade as a fixed percentage or fixed amount. Additionally, you can set the maximum leverage for a trade.
There are times when the stop loss is very close to the entry point, and adhering to the risk per trade values set in the settings may not allow for such a loss in any situation. That’s why we added the ability to set the maximum possible leverage, allowing you to test your trading strategy even with very tight stop losses.
Duplicated Smart Money Structure settings from our Advanced SMC indicator that you can adjust to match your trading style flexibly. All these settings will be taken into account during the optimization process or when manually calculating settings.
Additionally, you can test your strategy based on higher timeframe order blocks. For example, you can test a strategy on a 1-minute chart while displaying order blocks from a 15-minute timeframe. The auto-optimizer will consider all these parameters, including higher timeframe order blocks, and will enter trades based on these order blocks.
Highly flexible dashboard and results optimization settings allow you to display the tables you need and sort results by six different criteria: Profit Factor, Profit, Winrate, Max Drawdown, Wins, and Trades. This enables you to find the exact setup you desire, based on these comprehensive data points.
🟠 ALERT CUSTOMIZATION
With this indicator, you can set up buy and sell alerts based on the test results, allowing you to create a comprehensive trading strategy. This feature enables you to receive real-time signals, making it a powerful tool for implementing your trading strategies.
🟠 STRATEGY PROPERTIES
For backtesting, we used realistic initial data for entering trades, such as:
Starting balance: $1000
Commission: 0.01%
Risk per trade: 1%
To ensure realistic data, we used the above settings. We offer two methods for calculating your order size, and in our case, we used a 1% risk per trade. Here’s what it means:
Risk per trade: This is the maximum loss from your deposit if the trade goes against you. The trade volume can change depending on your stop-loss distance from the entry point. Here’s the formula we use to calculate the possible volume for a single trade:
1. quantity = percentage_risk * balance / loss_per_1_contract (incl. fee)
Then, we calculate the maximum allowed volume based on the specified maximum leverage:
2. max_quantity = maxLeverage * balance / entry_price
3. If quantity < max_quantity, meaning the leverage is less than the maximum allowed, we keep quantity. If quantity > max_quantity, we use max_quantity (the maximum allowed volume according to the set leverage).
This way, depending on the stop-loss distance, the position size can vary and be up to 100% of your deposit, but the loss in each trade will not exceed the set percentage, which in our case is 1% for this backtest. This is a standard risk calculation method based on your stop-loss distance.
🔸 Statistical Significance of Trade Data
In our strategy, you may notice there weren’t enough trades to form statistically significant data. This is inherent to the Smart Money Concept (SMC) strategy, where the focus is not on the number of trades but rather on the risk-to-reward ratio per trade. In SMC strategies, it’s crucial to avoid taking numerous uncertain setups and instead perform a comprehensive analysis of the market situation.
Therefore, our strategy results show fewer than 100 trades. It’s important to understand that this small sample size isn’t statistically significant and shouldn’t be relied upon for strategy analysis. Backtesting with a small number of trades should not be used to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of a strategy.
🔸 Versatile Use Cases
The methods of using this indicator are numerous, ranging from identifying potentially the best-performing order blocks on the chart to creating a comprehensive trading strategy based on the data provided by our indicator. We believe that every trader will find a valuable application for this tool, enhancing their entry and exit points in trades.
Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown by this indicator do not guarantee similar outcomes in the future. Use this tool as part of a comprehensive trading strategy, considering all market conditions and risks.
How to access
For access to this indicator, please read the author’s instructions below this post
Intelle_city - World Cycle - Ath & Atl - Logarithmic - Strategy.Overview
Indicators: Strategy !
INTELLECT_city - World Cycle - ATH & ATL - Timeframe 1D and 1W - Logarithmic - Strategy - The Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Oscillator is an adaptation of the original Pi Cycle Top chart. It compares the 111-Day Moving Average circle and the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average circle of Bitcoin’s Price. These two moving averages were selected as 350 / 111 = 3.153; An approximation of the important mathematical number Pi.
When the 111-Day Moving Average circle reaches the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average circle, it indicates that the market is becoming overheated. That is because the mid time frame momentum reference of the 111-Day Moving Average has caught up with the long timeframe momentum reference of the 2 * 350-Day Moving Average.
Historically this has occurred within 3 days of the very top of each market cycle.
When the 111 Day Moving Average circle falls back beneath the 2 * 350 Day Moving Average circle, it indicates that the market momentum of that cycle is significantly cooling down. The oscillator drops down into the lower green band shown where the 111 Day Moving Average is moving at a 75% discount relative to the 2 * 350 Day Moving Average.
Historically, this has highlighted broad areas of bear market lows.
IMPORTANT: You need to set a LOGARITHMIC graph. (The function is located at the bottom right of the screen)
IMPORTANT: The INTELLECT_city indicator is made for a buy-sell strategy; there is also a signal indicator from INTELLECT_city
IMPORTANT: The Chart shows all cycles, both buying and selling.
IMPORTANT: Suitable timeframes are 1 daily (recommended) and 1 weekly
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Описание на русском:
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Обзор индикатора
INTELLECT_city - World Cycle - ATH & ATL - Timeframe 1D and 1W - Logarithmic - Strategy - Логарифмический - Сигнал - Осциллятор вершины и основания цикла Пи представляет собой адаптацию оригинального графика вершины цикла Пи. Он сравнивает круг 111-дневной скользящей средней и круг 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней цены Биткойна. Эти две скользящие средние были выбраны как 350/111 = 3,153; Приближение важного математического числа Пи.
Когда круг 111-дневной скользящей средней достигает круга 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней, это указывает на то, что рынок перегревается. Это происходит потому, что опорный моментум среднего временного интервала 111-дневной скользящей средней догнал опорный момент импульса длинного таймфрейма 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней.
Исторически это происходило в течение трех дней после вершины каждого рыночного цикла.
Когда круг 111-дневной скользящей средней опускается ниже круга 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней, это указывает на то, что рыночный импульс этого цикла значительно снижается. Осциллятор опускается в нижнюю зеленую полосу, показанную там, где 111-дневная скользящая средняя движется со скидкой 75% относительно 2 * 350-дневной скользящей средней.
Исторически это высветило широкие области минимумов медвежьего рынка.
ВАЖНО: Выставлять нужно ЛОГАРИФМИЧЕСКИЙ график. (Находиться функция с правой нижней части экрана)
ВАЖНО: Индикатор INTELLECT_city сделан для стратегии покупок продаж, есть также и сигнальный от INTELLECT_сity
ВАЖНО: На Графике видны все циклы, как на покупку так и на продажу.
ВАЖНО: Подходящие таймфреймы 1 дневной (рекомендовано) и 1 недельный
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Beschreibung - Deutsch
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Indikatorübersicht
INTELLECT_city – Weltzyklus – ATH & ATL – Zeitrahmen 1T und 1W – Logarithmisch – Strategy – Der Pi-Zyklus-Top- und Bottom-Oszillator ist eine Anpassung des ursprünglichen Pi-Zyklus-Top-Diagramms. Er vergleicht den 111-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis und den 2 * 350-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis des Bitcoin-Preises. Diese beiden gleitenden Durchschnitte wurden als 350 / 111 = 3,153 ausgewählt; eine Annäherung an die wichtige mathematische Zahl Pi.
Wenn der 111-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis den 2 * 350-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnittskreis erreicht, deutet dies darauf hin, dass der Markt überhitzt. Das liegt daran, dass der Momentum-Referenzwert des 111-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnitts im mittleren Zeitrahmen den Momentum-Referenzwert des 2 * 350-Tage-Gleitenden-Durchschnitts im langen Zeitrahmen eingeholt hat.
Historisch gesehen geschah dies innerhalb von 3 Tagen nach dem Höhepunkt jedes Marktzyklus.
Wenn der Kreis des 111-Tage-Durchschnitts wieder unter den Kreis des 2 x 350-Tage-Durchschnitts fällt, deutet dies darauf hin, dass die Marktdynamik dieses Zyklus deutlich nachlässt. Der Oszillator fällt in das untere grüne Band, in dem der 111-Tage-Durchschnitt mit einem Abschlag von 75 % gegenüber dem 2 x 350-Tage-Durchschnitt verläuft.
Historisch hat dies breite Bereiche mit Tiefstständen in der Baisse hervorgehoben.
WICHTIG: Sie müssen ein logarithmisches Diagramm festlegen. (Die Funktion befindet sich unten rechts auf dem Bildschirm)
WICHTIG: Der INTELLECT_city-Indikator ist für eine Kauf-Verkaufs-Strategie konzipiert; es gibt auch einen Signalindikator von INTELLECT_city
WICHTIG: Das Diagramm zeigt alle Zyklen, sowohl Kauf- als auch Verkaufszyklen.
WICHTIG: Geeignete Zeitrahmen sind 1 täglich (empfohlen) und 1 wöchentlich
TASC 2024.06 REIT ETF Trading System█ OVERVIEW
This strategy script demonstrates the application of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) ETF trading system presented in the article by Markos Katsanos titled "Is The Price REIT?" from TASC's June 2024 edition of Traders' Tips .
█ CONCEPTS
REIT stocks and ETFs offer a simplified, diversified approach to real estate investment. They exhibit sensitivity to interest rates, often moving inversely to interest rate and treasury yield changes. Markos Katsanos explores this relationship and the correlation of prices with the broader market to develop a trading strategy for REIT ETFs.
The script employs Bollinger Bands and Donchian channel indicators to identify oversold conditions and trends in REIT ETFs. It incorporates the 10-year treasury yield index (TNX) as a proxy for interest rates and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a benchmark for the overall market. The system filters trade entries based on their behavior and correlation with the REIT ETF price.
█ CALCULATIONS
The strategy initiates long entries (buy signals) under two conditions:
1. Oversold condition
The weekly ETF low price dips below the 15-week Bollinger Band bottom, the closing price is above the value by at least 0.2 * ATR ( Average True Range ), and the price exceeds the week's median.
Either of the following:
– The TNX index is down over 15% from its 25-week high, and its correlation with the ETF price is less than 0.3.
– The yield is below 2%.
2. Uptrend
The weekly ETF price crosses above the previous week's 30-week Donchian channel high.
The SPY ETF is above its 20-week moving average.
Either of the following:
– Over ten weeks have passed since the TNX index was at its 30-week high.
– The correlation between the TNX value and the ETF price exceeds 0.3.
– The yield is below 2%.
The strategy also includes three exit (sell) rules:
1. Trailing (Chandelier) stop
The weekly close drops below the highest close over the last five weeks by over 1.5 * ATR.
The TNX value rises over the latest 25 weeks, with a yield exceeding 4%, or its value surges over 15% above the 25-week low.
2. Stop-loss
The ETF's price declines by at least 8% of the previous week's close and falls below the 30-week moving average.
The SPY price is down by at least 8%, or its correlation with the ETF's price is negative.
3. Overbought condition
The ETF's value rises above the 100-week low by over 50%.
The ETF's price falls over 1.5 * ATR below the 3-week high.
The ETF's 10-week Stochastic indicator exceeds 90 within the last three weeks.
█ DISCLAIMER
This strategy script educates users on the system outlined by the TASC article. However, note that its default properties might not fully represent real-world trading conditions for an individual. By default, it uses 10% of equity as the order size and a slippage amount of 5 ticks. Traders should adjust these settings and the commission amount when using this script. Additionally, since this strategy utilizes compound conditions on weekly data to trigger orders, it will generate significantly fewer trades than other, higher-frequency strategies.
RunRox - Backtesting System (SM)RunRox - Backtesting System (SM) is designed for flexible and comprehensive testing of trading strategies, closely integrated with our RunRox - Signals Master indicator. This combination enhances your ability to refine strategies efficiently, providing you with insights to adapt and optimize your trading tactics seamlessly.
The Backtesting System (SM) excels in pinpointing the optimal settings for the RunRox - Signals Master indicator, efficiently highlighting the most effective configurations.
Capabilities of the Backtesting System (SM)
Optimal Settings Determination: Identifies the best configurations for the Signals Master indicator to enhance its effectiveness.
Timeframe-Specific Strategy Testing: Allows strategies to be tested over specific historical time periods to assess their viability.
Customizable Initial Conditions: Enables setting of initial deposit, risk per trade, and commission rates to mirror real-world trading conditions.
Flexible Money Management: Provides options to set take profits and stop losses, optimizing potential returns and risk management.
Intuitive Dashboard: Features a user-friendly dashboard that visually displays all pertinent information, making it easy to analyze and adjust strategies.
Trading Flexibility Across Three Modes:
Dual-Direction Trading: Engage in both buying and selling with this mode. Our dashboard optimizes and identifies the best settings for trading in two directions, streamlining the process to maximize effectiveness for both buy and sell orders.
Buy-Only Mode: Tailored for traders focusing exclusively on purchasing assets. In this mode, our backtester pinpoints the most advantageous sensitivity, speed reaction, and filter settings specifically for buying. Optimal settings in this mode may differ from those used in dual-direction trading, providing a customized approach to single-direction strategies.
Sell-Only Mode: Perfect for strategies primarily based on selling. This setting allows you to discover the ideal configurations for asset sales, which can be particularly useful if you are looking for optimal exit points in long-term transactions or under specific market conditions.
Here's an example of how profits can differ on the same asset when trading using two distinct strategies: exclusively buying or trading in both directions.
Above in the image, you can see how one-directional trading influences the results of backtests on historical data. While this does not guarantee future outcomes, it provides insight into how the strategy's performance can vary with different trading directions.
As you can also see from the image, one-directional trading has affected the optimal combination of settings for Sensitivity, Speed Reaction, and Filters.
Stop Loss and Take Profit
Our backtesting system, as you might have gathered, includes flexible settings for take profits and stop losses. Here are the main features:
Multiple Take Profits: Ability to set from 1 to 4 take profit levels.
Fixed Percentage: Option to assign a fixed percentage for each take profit.
Trade Proportion Fixation: Ability to set a fixed size from the trade for securing profits.
Stop Loss Installation: Option to establish a stop loss.
Break-Even Stop Loss: Ability to move the stop loss to a break-even point upon reaching a specified take profit level.
These settings offer extensive flexibility and can be customized according to your preferences and trading style. They are suitable for both novice and professional traders looking to test their trading strategies on historical data.
As illustrated in the image above, we have implemented money management by setting fixed take profits and stop losses. Utilizing money management has improved indicators such as profit, maximum drawdown, and profit factor, turning even historically unprofitable strategies into profitable ones. Although this does not guarantee future results, it serves as a valuable tool for understanding the effectiveness of money management.
Additionally, as you can see, the optimal settings for Signals Master have been adjusted, highlighting the best configurations for the most favorable outcomes.
Disclaimer:
Historical data is not indicative of future results. All indicators and strategies provided by RunRox are intended for integration with traders' strategies and should be used as tools for analysis rather than standalone solutions. Traders should use their own discretion and understand that all trading involves risk.
Bitcoin 5A Strategy@LilibtcIn our long-term strategy, we have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, we found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, we have built a predictive model and adjusted our investment strategy accordingly based on this model. In practice, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations.
When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but we have taken the first step in exploring.
Table of contents:
Usage Guide
Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
Step 5: Develop a Bitcoin 5A strategy
Step 6: Verify the performance of the Bitcoin 5A strategy
Usage Restrictions
🦮Usage Guide:
1. On the main interface, modify the code, find the BTCUSD trading pair, and select the BITSTAMP exchange for trading.
2. Set the time period to the daily chart.
3. Select a logarithmic chart in the chart type to better identify price trends.
4. In the strategy settings, adjust the options according to personal needs, including language, display indicators, display strategies, display performance, display optimizations, sell alerts, buy prompts, opening days, backtesting start year, backtesting start month, and backtesting start date.
🏃Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
📖Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence
In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation.
For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance.
Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin.
🏃Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
📖Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin?
Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model.
From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Marx in "Das Kapital" that "prices fluctuate around values."
The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows:
btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log)
btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply
🏃Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
📖Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top?
By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market.
This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends.
🏃Step 4:Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
📖Price Upper Limit
According to the data calculated on February 25, 2024, the 🟠upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $194,287, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025. That is where you should sell the Bitcoin. and the upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $190,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on February 25, 2024, was $51,729, with an expected increase of 2.7 times.
🏃Step 5: Bitcoin 5A Strategy Formulation
📖Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose?
We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost.
In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities.
Specifically, we can find the key trading points by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1.
To ensure that all five key trading points generate trading signals, we set the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the smallest of the two highest values, 1. Then, we buy when the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, and sell when it is above 1.
In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day.
📖Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy
Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators:
• Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance.
• Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values.
Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations.
In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy.
🏃Step 6: Validating the performance of the Bitcoin 5A Strategy
📖Model interpretability validation: How to explain the Bitcoin price model?
The interpretability of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R squared, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the interpretability of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well.
The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R squared is as follows:
residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log
residual_square = residual * residual
train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days)
train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days
train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days)
📖Model stability verification: How to affirm the stability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available?
Model stability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the stability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the interpretability of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as stability. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the stability of this model.
📖Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results?
After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include:
• Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy.
The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows:
Trading range: 2015-8-19 to 2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18 to 2024-2-18
Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers.
In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data:
• Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times.
• Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy.
• Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy.
Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
⚠️Usage Restrictions: Strategy Application in Specific Situations
Please note that this strategy is designed specifically for Bitcoin and should not be applied to other assets or markets without authorization. In actual operations, we should make careful decisions according to our risk tolerance and investment goals.
Bitcoin 5A Strategy - Price Upper & Lower Limit@LilibtcIn our long-term strategy, we have deeply explored the key factors influencing the price of Bitcoin. By precisely calculating the correlation between these factors and the price of Bitcoin, we found that they are closely linked to the value of Bitcoin. To more effectively predict the fair price of Bitcoin, we have built a predictive model and adjusted our investment strategy accordingly based on this model. In practice, the prediction results of this model correspond quite high with actual values, fully demonstrating its reliability in predicting price fluctuations.
When the future is uncertain and the outlook is unclear, people often choose to hold back and avoid risks, or even abandon their original plans. However, the prediction of Bitcoin is full of challenges, but we have taken the first step in exploring.
Table of contents:
Usage Guide
Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
Step 3: Find indicators for warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
Step 4: Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
Step 5: Develop a Bitcoin 5A strategy
Step 6: Verify the performance of the Bitcoin 5A strategy
Usage Restrictions
🦮Usage Guide:
1. On the main interface, modify the code, find the BTCUSD trading pair, and select the BITSTAMP exchange for trading.
2. Set the time period to the daily chart.
3. Select a logarithmic chart in the chart type to better identify price trends.
4. In the strategy settings, adjust the options according to personal needs, including language, display indicators, display strategies, display performance, display optimizations, sell alerts, buy prompts, opening days, backtesting start year, backtesting start month, and backtesting start date.
🏃Step 1: Identify the factors that have the greatest impact on Bitcoin price
📖Correlation Coefficient: A mathematical concept for measuring influence
In order to predict the price trend of Bitcoin, we need to delve into the factors that have the greatest impact on its price. These factors or variables can be expressed in mathematical or statistical correlation coefficients. The correlation coefficient is an indicator of the degree of association between two variables, ranging from -1 to 1. A value of 1 indicates a perfect positive correlation, while a value of -1 indicates a perfect negative correlation.
For example, if the price of corn rises, the price of live pigs usually rises accordingly, because corn is the main feed source for pig breeding. In this case, the correlation coefficient between corn and live pig prices is approximately 0.3. This means that corn is a factor affecting the price of live pigs. On the other hand, if a shooter's performance improves while another shooter's performance deteriorates due to increased psychological pressure, we can say that the former is a factor affecting the latter's performance.
Therefore, in order to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin, we need to find the factors with the highest correlation coefficients with the price of Bitcoin. If, through the analysis of the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the data on the chain, we find that a certain data factor on the chain has the highest correlation coefficient with the price of Bitcoin, then this data factor on the chain can be identified as the factor that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. Through calculation, we found that the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is one of the factors that has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin. From historical data, it can be clearly seen that the growth rate of the 🔵 number of Bitcoin blocks is basically consistent with the movement direction of the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the past ten years of data, we obtained a daily correlation coefficient of 0.93 between the number of Bitcoin blocks and the price of Bitcoin.
🏃Step 2: Build a Bitcoin price prediction model
📖Predictive Model: What formula is used to predict the price of Bitcoin?
Among various prediction models, the linear function is the preferred model due to its high accuracy. Take the standard weight as an example, its linear function graph is a straight line, which is why we choose the linear function model. However, the growth rate of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks is extremely fast, which does not conform to the characteristics of the linear function. Therefore, in order to make them more in line with the characteristics of the linear function, we first take the logarithm of both. By observing the logarithmic graph of the price of Bitcoin and the number of blocks, we can find that after the logarithm transformation, the two are more in line with the characteristics of the linear function. Based on this feature, we choose the linear regression model to establish the prediction model.
From the graph below, we can see that the actual red and green K-line fluctuates around the predicted blue and 🟢green line. These predicted values are based on fundamental factors of Bitcoin, which support its value and reflect its reasonable value. This picture is consistent with the theory proposed by Marx in "Das Kapital" that "prices fluctuate around values."
The predicted logarithm of the market cap of Bitcoin is calculated through the model. The specific calculation formula of the Bitcoin price prediction value is as follows:
btc_predicted_marketcap = math.exp(btc_predicted_marketcap_log)
btc_predicted_price = btc_predicted_marketcap / btc_supply
🏃Step 3: Find indicators for early warning of bear market bottoms and bull market tops
📖Warning Indicator: How to Determine Whether the Bitcoin Price has Reached the Bear Market Bottom or the Bull Market Top?
By observing the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart mentioned above, we notice that the actual price often falls below the predicted value at the bottom of a bear market; during the peak of a bull market, the actual price exceeds the predicted price. This pattern indicates that the deviation between the actual price and the predicted price can serve as an early warning signal. When the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very low, as shown by the chart with 🟩green background, it usually means that we are at the bottom of the bear market; Conversely, when the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation is very high, the chart with a 🟥red background indicates that we are at the peak of the bull market.
This pattern has been validated through six bull and bear markets, and the deviation value indeed serves as an early warning signal, which can be used as an important reference for us to judge market trends.
🏃Step 4:Predict Bitcoin Price in 2025
📖Price Upper Limit
According to the data calculated on March 10, 2023(If you want to check latest data, please contact with author), the 🟠upper limit of the Bitcoin price is $132,453, which is the price ceiling of this bull market. The peak of the last bull market was on November 9, 2021, at $68,664. The bull-bear market cycle is 4 years, so the highest point of this bull market is expected in 2025, and the 🟠upper limit of the Bitcoin price will exceed $130,000. The closing price of Bitcoin on March 10, 2024, was $68,515, with an expected increase of 90%.
🏃Step 5: Bitcoin 5A Strategy Formulation
📖Strategy: When to buy or sell, and how many to choose?
We introduce the Bitcoin 5A strategy. This strategy requires us to generate trading signals based on the critical values of the warning indicators, simulate the trades, and collect performance data for evaluation. In the Bitcoin 5A strategy, there are three key parameters: buying warning indicator, batch trading days, and selling warning indicator. Batch trading days are set to ensure that we can make purchases in batches after the trading signal is sent, thus buying at a lower price, selling at a higher price, and reducing the trading impact cost.
In order to find the optimal warning indicator critical value and batch trading days, we need to adjust these parameters repeatedly and perform backtesting. Backtesting is a method established by observing historical data, which can help us better understand market trends and trading opportunities.
Specifically, we can find the key trading points by watching the Bitcoin price log and the Bitcoin price deviation chart. For example, on August 25, 2015, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value of -1.11; on December 17, 2017, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.69; on March 16, 2020, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -0.91; on March 13, 2021, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its highest value at the time, 1.1; on December 31, 2022, the 🔴 Bitcoin price deviation was at its lowest value at the time, -1.
To ensure that all five key trading points generate trading signals, we set the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation to the larger of the three lowest values, -0.9, and the smallest of the two highest values, 1. Then, we buy when the warning indicator Bitcoin price deviation is below -0.9, and sell when it is above 1.
In addition, we set the batch trading days as 25 days to implement a strategy that averages purchases and sales. Within these 25 days, we will invest all funds into the market evenly, buying once a day. At the same time, we also sell positions at the same pace, selling once a day.
📖Adjusting the threshold: a key step to optimizing trading strategy
Adjusting the threshold is an indispensable step for better performance. Here are some suggestions for adjusting the batch trading days and critical values of warning indicators:
• Batch trading days: Try different days like 25 to see how it affects overall performance.
• Buy and sell critical values for warning indicators: iteratively fine-tune the buy threshold value of -0.9 and the sell threshold value of 1 exhaustively to find the best combination of threshold values.
Through such careful adjustments, we may find an optimized approach with a lower maximum drawdown rate (e.g., 11%) and a higher cumulative return rate for closed trades (e.g., 474 times). The chart below is a backtest optimization chart for the Bitcoin 5A strategy, providing an intuitive display of strategy adjustments and optimizations.
In this way, we can better grasp market trends and trading opportunities, thereby achieving a more robust and efficient trading strategy.
🏃Step 6: Validating the performance of the Bitcoin 5A Strategy
📖Model accuracy validation: How to judge the accuracy of the Bitcoin price model?
The accuracy of the model is represented by the coefficient of determination R square, which reflects the degree of match between the predicted value and the actual value. I divided all the historical data from August 18, 2015 into two groups, and used the data from August 18, 2011 to August 18, 2015 as training data to generate the model. The calculation result shows that the coefficient of determination R squared during the 2011-2015 training period is as high as 0.81, which shows that the accuracy of this model is quite high. From the Bitcoin price logarithmic prediction chart in the figure below, we can see that the deviation between the predicted value and the actual value is not far, which means that most of the predicted values can explain the actual value well.
The calculation formula for the coefficient of determination R square is as follows:
residual = btc_close_log - btc_predicted_price_log
residual_square = residual * residual
train_residual_square_sum = math.sum(residual_square, train_days)
train_mse = train_residual_square_sum / train_days
train_r2 = 1 - train_mse / ta.variance(btc_close_log, train_days)
📖Model reliability verification: How to affirm the reliability of the Bitcoin price model when new data is available?
Model reliability is achieved through model verification. I set the last day of the training period to February 2, 2024 as the "verification group" and used it as verification data to verify the reliability of the model. This means that after generating the model if there is new data, I will use these new data together with the model for prediction, and then evaluate the accuracy of the model. If the coefficient of determination when using verification data is close to the previous training one and both remain at a high level, then we can consider this model as reliable. The coefficient of determination calculated from the validation period data and model prediction results is as high as 0.83, which is close to the previous 0.81, further proving the reliability of this model.
📖Performance evaluation: How to accurately evaluate historical backtesting results?
After detailed strategy testing, to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the results, we need to carry out a detailed performance evaluation on the backtest results. The key evaluation indices include:
• Net value curve: As shown in the rose line, it intuitively reflects the growth of the account net value. By observing the net value curve, we can understand the overall performance and profitability of the strategy.
The basic attributes of this strategy are as follows:
Trading range: 2015-8-19 to 2024-2-18, backtest range: 2011-8-18 to 2024-2-18
Initial capital: 1000USD, order size: 1 contract, pyramid: 50 orders, commission rate: 0.2%, slippage: 20 markers.
In the strategy tester overview chart, we also obtained the following key data:
• Net profit rate of closed trades: as high as 474 times, far exceeding the benchmark, as shown in the strategy tester performance summary chart, Bitcoin buys and holds 210 times.
• Number of closed trades and winning percentage: 100 trades were all profitable, showing the stability and reliability of the strategy.
• Drawdown rate & win-loose ratio: The maximum drawdown rate is only 11%, far lower than Bitcoin's 78%. Profit factor, or win-loose ratio, reached 500, further proving the advantage of the strategy.
Through these detailed evaluations, we can see clearly the excellent balance between risk and return of the Bitcoin 5A strategy.
⚠️Usage Restrictions: Strategy Application in Specific Situations
Please note that this strategy is designed specifically for Bitcoin and should not be applied to other assets or markets without authorization. In actual operations, we should make careful decisions according to our risk tolerance and investment goals.
Crypto MVRV ZScore - Strategy [PresentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Crypto Valuation Extremes: MVRV ZScore - Strategy " represents a cutting-edge approach to cryptocurrency trading, leveraging the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This metric is pivotal for identifying overvalued or undervalued conditions in the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin. It assesses the current market valuation against the realized capitalization, providing insights that are not apparent through conventional analysis.
BTCUSD 6h Long/Short Performance
Local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy leverages the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, specifically designed for cryptocurrencies, with a focus on Bitcoin. This metric is crucial for determining whether Bitcoin is currently undervalued or overvalued compared to its historical 'realized' price. Below is an in-depth explanation of the strategy's components and calculations.
🔶Conceptual Foundation
- Market Capitalization (MC): This represents the total dollar market value of Bitcoin's circulating supply. It is calculated as the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation.
- Realized Capitalization (RC): Unlike MC, which values all coins at the current market price, RC is computed by valuing each coin at the price it was last moved or traded. Essentially, it is a summation of the value of all bitcoins, priced at the time they were last transacted.
- MVRV Ratio: This ratio is derived by dividing the Market Capitalization by the Realized Capitalization (The ratio of MC to RC (MVRV Ratio = MC / RC)). A ratio greater than 1 indicates that the current price is higher than the average price at which all bitcoins were purchased, suggesting potential overvaluation. Conversely, a ratio below 1 suggests undervaluation.
🔶 MVRV Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score is a statistical measure that indicates the number of standard deviations an element is from the mean. For this strategy, the MVRV Z-Score is calculated as follows:
MVRV Z-Score = (MC - RC) / Standard Deviation of (MC - RC)
This formula quantifies Bitcoin's deviation from its 'normal' valuation range, offering insights into market sentiment and potential price reversals.
🔶 Spread Z-Score for Trading Signals
The strategy refines this approach by calculating a 'spread Z-Score', which adjusts the MVRV Z-Score over a specific period (default: 252 days). This is done to smooth out short-term market volatility and focus on longer-term valuation trends. The spread Z-Score is calculated as follows:
Spread Z-Score = (Market Z-Score - MVVR Ratio - SMA of Spread) / Standard Deviation of Spread
Where:
- SMA of Spread is the simple moving average of the spread over the specified period.
- Spread refers to the difference between the Market Z-Score and the MVRV Ratio.
🔶 Trading Signals
- Long Entry Condition: A long (buy) signal is generated when the spread Z-Score crosses above the long entry threshold, indicating that Bitcoin is potentially undervalued.
- Short Entry Condition: A short (sell) signal is triggered when the spread Z-Score falls below the short entry threshold, suggesting overvaluation.
These conditions are based on the premise that extreme deviations from the mean (as indicated by the Z-Score) are likely to revert to the mean over time, presenting opportunities for strategic entry and exit points.
█ Practical Application
Traders use these signals to make informed decisions about opening or closing positions in the Bitcoin market. By quantifying market valuation extremes, the strategy aims to capitalize on the cyclical nature of price movements, identifying high-probability entry and exit points based on historical valuation norms.
█ Trade Direction
A unique feature of this strategy is its configurable trade direction. Users can specify their preference for engaging in long positions, short positions, or both. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the strategy according to their risk tolerance, market outlook, or trading style, making it adaptable to various market conditions and trader objectives.
█ Usage
To implement this strategy, traders should first adjust the input parameters to align with their trading preferences and risk management practices. These parameters include the trade direction, Z-Score calculation period, and the thresholds for long and short entries. Once configured, the strategy automatically generates trading signals based on the calculated spread Z-Score, providing clear indications for potential entry and exit points.
It is advisable for traders to backtest the strategy under different market conditions to validate its effectiveness and adjust the settings as necessary. Continuous monitoring and adjustment are crucial, as market dynamics evolve over time.
█ Default Settings
- Trade Direction: Both (Allows for both long and short positions)
- Z-Score Calculation Period: 252 days (Approximately one trading year, capturing a comprehensive market cycle)
- Long Entry Threshold: 0.382 (Indicative of moderate undervaluation)
- Short Entry Threshold: -0.382 (Signifies moderate overvaluation)
These default settings are designed to balance sensitivity to market valuation extremes with a pragmatic approach to trade execution. They aim to filter out noise and focus on significant market movements, providing a solid foundation for both new and experienced traders looking to exploit the unique insights offered by the MVRV Z-Score in the cryptocurrency market.
Financial Ratios Fundamental StrategyWhat are financial ratios?
Financial ratios are basic calculations using quantitative data from a company’s financial statements. They are used to get insights and important information on the company’s performance, profitability, and financial health.
Common financial ratios come from a company’s balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement.
Businesses use financial ratios to determine liquidity, debt concentration, growth, profitability, and market value.
The common financial ratios every business should track are
1) liquidity ratios
2) leverage ratios
3)efficiency ratio
4) profitability ratios
5) market value ratios.
Initially I had a big list of 20 different ratios for testing, but in the end I decided to stick for the strategy with these ones :
Current ratio: Current Assets / Current Liabilities
The current ratio measures how a business’s current assets, such as cash, cash equivalents, accounts receivable, and inventories, are used to settle current liabilities such as accounts payable.
Interest coverage ratio: EBIT / Interest expenses
Companies generally pay interest on corporate debt. The interest coverage ratio shows if a company’s revenue after operating expenses can cover interest liabilities.
Payables turnover ratio: Cost of Goods sold (or net credit purchases) / Average Accounts Payable
The payables turnover ratio calculates how quickly a business pays its suppliers and creditors.
Gross margin: Gross profit / Net sales
The gross margin ratio measures how much profit a business makes after the cost of goods and services compared to net sales.
With this data, I have created the long and long exit strategy:
For long, if any of the 4 listed ratios,such as current ratio or interest coverage ratio or payable turn ratio or gross margin ratio is ascending after a quarter, its a potential long entry.
For example in january the gross margin ratio is at 10% and in april is at 15%, this is an increase from a quarter to another, so it will get a long entry trigger.
The same could happen if any of the 4 listed ratios follow the ascending condition since they are all treated equally as important
For exit, if any of the 4 listed ratios are descending after a quarter, such as current ratio or interest coverage ratio or payable turn ratio or gross margin ratio is descending after a quarter, its a potential long exit.
For example in april we entered a long trade, and in july data from gross margin comes as 12% .
In this case it fell down from 15% to 12%, triggering an exit for our trade.
However there is a special case with this strategy, in order to make it more re active and make use of the compound effect:
So lets say on july 1 when the data came in, the gross margin data came descending (indicating an exit for the long trade), however at the same the interest coverage ratio came as positive, or any of the other 3 left ratios left . In that case the next day after the trade closed, it will enter a new long position and wait again until a new quarter data for the financial is being published.
Regarding the guidelines of tradingview, they recommend to have more than 100 trades.
With this type of strategy, using Daily timeframe and data from financials coming each quarter(4 times a year), we only have the financial data available since 2016, so that makes 28 quarters of data, making a maximum potential of 28 trades.
This can however be "bypassed" to check the integrity of the strategy and its edge, by taking for example multiple stocks and test them in a row, for example, appl, msft, goog, brk and so on, and you can see the correlation between them all.
At the same time I have to say that this strategy is more as an educational one since it miss a risk management and other additional filters to make it more adapted for real live trading, and instead serves as a guiding tool for those that want to make use of fundamentals in their trades
If you have any questions, please let me know !
Range BreakerStrategy Description: Range Breaker
The Range Breaker strategy is a breakout trading strategy that aims to capture profits when the price of a financial instrument moves out of a defined range. The strategy identifies swing highs and swing lows over a specified lookback period and enters long or short positions when the price breaks above the swing high or below the swing low, respectively. It also employs stop targets based on a percentage to manage risk and protect profits.
Beginner's Guide:
Understand the concepts:
a. Swing High: A swing high is a local peak in price where the price is higher than the surrounding prices.
b. Swing Low: A swing low is a local trough in price where the price is lower than the surrounding prices.
c. Lookback Period: The number of bars or periods the strategy analyzes to determine swing highs and swing lows.
d. Stop Target: A predetermined price level at which the strategy will exit the position to manage risk and protect profits.
Configure the strategy:
a. Set the initial capital, order size, commission, and pyramiding as needed for your specific trading account.
b. Choose the desired lookback period to identify the swing highs and lows.
c. Set the stop target multiplier and stop target percentage as desired to manage risk and protect profits.
Backtest the strategy:
a. Set the backtest start date to analyze the strategy's historical performance.
b. Observe the backtesting results to evaluate the strategy's effectiveness and adjust the parameters if necessary.
Implement the strategy:
a. Apply the strategy to your preferred financial instrument on the TradingView platform.
b. Monitor the strategy's performance and adjust the parameters as needed to optimize its effectiveness.
Risk management:
a. Always use a stop target to protect your trading capital and manage risk.
b. Don't risk more than a small percentage of your trading capital on a single trade.
c. Be prepared to adjust the strategy or stop trading it if the market conditions change significantly.
Adjusting the Lookback Period and Timeframes for Optimal Strategy Performance
The Range Breaker strategy uses a lookback period to identify swing highs and lows, which serve as the basis for determining entry and exit points for long and short positions. By adjusting the lookback period and analyzing different timeframes, you can potentially find the best strategy configuration for each specific asset.
Adjusting the lookback period:
The lookback period is a critical parameter that affects the sensitivity of the strategy to price movements. A shorter lookback period will make the strategy more sensitive to smaller price fluctuations, resulting in more frequent trading signals. On the other hand, a longer lookback period will make the strategy less sensitive, generating fewer signals but potentially capturing larger price movements.
To optimize the lookback period for a specific asset, you can test different lookback values and compare their performance in terms of risk-adjusted returns, win rate, and other relevant metrics. Keep in mind that using an overly short lookback period may lead to overtrading and increased transaction costs, while an overly long lookback period may cause the strategy to miss profitable trading opportunities.
Analyzing different timeframes:
Timeframes refer to the duration of each bar or candlestick on the chart. Shorter timeframes (e.g., 5-minute, 15-minute, or 30-minute) focus on intraday price movements, while longer timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly, or monthly) capture longer-term trends. The choice of timeframe affects the number of trading signals generated by the strategy and the length of time each position is held.
To find the best strategy for each asset, you can test the Range Breaker strategy on different timeframes and analyze its performance. Keep in mind that shorter timeframes may require more active monitoring and management due to the increased frequency of trading signals. Longer timeframes, on the other hand, may require more patience as positions are held for extended periods.
Finding the best strategy for each asset:
Every asset has unique price characteristics that may affect the performance of a trading strategy. To find the best strategy for each asset, you should:
a. Test various lookback periods and timeframes, observing the strategy's performance in terms of profitability, risk-adjusted returns, and win rate.
b. Consider the asset's historical price behavior, such as its volatility, liquidity, and trend-following or mean-reverting tendencies.
c. Evaluate the strategy's performance during different market conditions, such as bullish, bearish, or sideways markets, to ensure its robustness.
d. Keep in mind that each asset may require a unique set of strategy parameters for optimal performance, and there may be no one-size-fits-all solution.
By experimenting with different lookback periods and timeframes, you can fine-tune the Range Breaker strategy for each specific asset, potentially improving its overall performance and adaptability to changing market conditions. Always practice proper risk management and be prepared to make adjustments as needed.
Remember that trading strategies carry inherent risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always practice proper risk management and consider your own risk tolerance before trading with real money.
MVRV Z Score and MVRV Free Float Z-ScoreIMPORTANT: This script needs as much historic data as possible. Please run it on INDEX:BTCUSD , BNC:BLX or another chart of sufficient length.
MVRV
The MVRV (Market Value to Realised Value Ratio) simply divides bitcoins market cap by bitcoins realized market cap. This was previously impossible on Tradingview but has now been made possible thanks to Coinmetrics providing us with the realized market cap data.
In the free float version, the free float market cap is used instead of the regular market cap.
Z-Score
The MVRV Z-score divides the difference between Market cap and realized market cap by the historic standard deviation of the market cap.
Historically, this has been insanely accurate at detecting bitcoin tops and bottoms:
A Z-Score above 7 means bitcoin is vastly overpriced and at a local top.
A Z-Score below 0.1 means bitcoin is underpriced and at a local bottom.
In the free float version, the free float market cap is used instead of the regular market cap.
The Z-Score, also known as the standard score is hugely popular in a wide range of mathematical and statistical fields and is usually used to measure the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured.
Credits
MVRV Z Score initially created by aweandwonder
MVRV initially created by Murad Mahmudov and David Puell
Big Whale Purchases and SalesBig Whale Purchases and Sales - plots big whale transactions on your chart!
People that hold more than 1% of a crypto currencies circulating supply are considered whales and have a huge influence on price, not just because they can move the market with their huge transactions, but also because other traders often track their wallets and follow their example. Taking a look at whale holdings, one can see why whale worship is so common in crypto: While Bitcoin has a relatively low whale concentration, many of the Top 100 Cryptocurrencies have whales control 60% or more of their circulating supply.
Integrating IntoTheBlock data, this script plots the transactions of these whales and, in strategy mode, copy trades them.
Features:
Strategy Mode: Switches the script between an indicator and a strategy.
Standard Deviations: The number of Standard Deviations that a transaction needs to surpass to be considered worth plotting. Setting this to 0 will show all whale transactions, higher settings will only show the biggest transactions.
Blockchain: The Chain on which Whale activity is tracked.
Misery index strategyHi all,
It's bear market so let's have a look at the misery index.
Misery index = inflation(%) + unemployment (%)
It's only possible to use this chart on the monthly (as misery index is updated monthly), but just for fun I added a strategy to it. If misery index increases you short and you go long when MI decreases.
Enjoy
p.s. the band is pretty cool too
USD Liquidity Conditions Index Swing Stock Strategy Original credits goes to @ElDoggo22 www.tradingview.com
I looked in the post created by him, of USD liquidity and I have noticed that if you are going to apply a percentile top and bottom to it, can become an interesting swing strategy for US Stocks.
So in this case I decided to create a 99th percentile for top and 4th percentile for bot with a big length, preferably 100+ candles, for this example i took 150.
Rules for entry :
Long : either bot or top lines are ascending
We exit long either the top line is descending, or we have sudden cross of the moving average with both top and bot within the same candle
Short: we enter short when we have a sudden cross down of the moving average with both top and bot within the same candle
We exit short when we have a cross over of the moving average with both top and bot within the same candle ( or we have a long entry condition)
If there are qny questions, please let me know !
BTC Profitable Wallets StrategyBTC Profitable Wallets Strategy - plots the percentage of profitable BTC wallets and places long orders when the profitable wallet share crosses above 50%, historically a very accurate point to catch the next Bull Run early.
The only setting is a smoothing option using the Moving Average method and length of your choice.
On Chain Data is queried from IntoTheBlock.
This is a 'HODL' strategy, with no exit given. If you'd like to see the historical performance check the Open Profit or place a sell order at the current date.
BTC Hashrate ribbonsBTC Hash Rate ribbons / Hash Rate cross
This strategy goes long when BTCs Hash Rate 30 day moving average crosses above the 60 day moving average, signifying that miner capitulation is over and recovery has started.
When the opposite signal is given, which signifies the beginning of miner capitulation, the strategy goes short (or flat, depending on configuration). This is generally considered the most popular Hash Rate related strategy.
The strategy is based on this medium article: medium.com
Thanks to the recent integration of IntoTheBlock data into Tradingview, we can now effortlessly show Hash Rate data on our chart,
keep in mind however, that IntoTheBlock doesn't provide Hash Rate data on timeframes below daily, so this strategy is based used on the daily, weekly or even monthly time frames.
Hash Rate definition:
The Bitcoin hash rate is the number of times per second that computers on the Bitcoin network are hashing data to verify transactions and perform the encryption that secures the network. The hash rate is an indicator of how healthy the Bitcoin network is at any given time, and is driven primarily by difficulty mining and the number of miners. Generally, a high hash rate is considered a good thing.
More precisely, the Bitcoin hash rate is the number of times per second that computers on the Bitcoin network are hashing data to verify transactions and perform the encryption that secures the network.
MA trading Tool V2.0Background to the tool
The tool was built out of frustration. Having traded for many years with a reasonable level of success I was always frustrated that my trading never went up a level. The world of trading is filled with people having so much more success than me and this level of FOMO really bothered me and resulted in inconsistency and countless hours sitting in front of a screen, hoping for the best. I also became a little bit of an indicator junkie - was there a holy grail indicator out there for me? I always felt that as a retail trader I was behind the curve. I started to investigate how the major market participants trade and make money and I was astounded at the level of success that they get from creating strategies and sticking to it. The market is driven largely by a "black boxes" which, for us retail traders are outside of our ability to access. I wanted to build a tool that could give me a traders edge.
Another factor that has always bothered me was when reading investing books there is a general assumption that a standard entry, say 8/13 cross over, works on all stocks. However, it is not the case and it can be frustrating for a trader using a set up and not realizing that the set up was/is the problem, not the trader. This realization alone has made a huge impact on my trading. The big boxes that control the market know this already.
Also, a lot of indicators that are available don’t take advantage of the backtesting capability provided in Tradingview. It is fairly simple to find 8-9 trades where a set up worked and then fall into the trade of assuming that it cannot fail. Knowing which set ups work and how frequently it will print will change the way that you trade.
The goal with the tool is to identify setups that have worked in the past with a high degree of profitability, high profit factor and low drawdown and using the planning tool allows you to customize the setup to find exactly what you are looking for across any tradeable asset on TradingView.
Over the past 20 years I have realized the following:
1) Not all entries and signals work the same on all stocks and knowing the historical performance of a strategy is critical
2) Not having a plan in advance lowers your probability of success
3) Developing consistency in analysis is critical
4) Developing confidence in your own plan is more important than whose trades you try to copy
5) Having 30 indicators does not help you trade better - it leads to more frustration
So here is the product of these realisations:
1) The tool looks across the most common entry strategies (RMA / EMA / SMA / HMA / WMA cross on 5 dimensions of type and 5 common crossovers) and can be used on 19 different time frames giving you guidance on what the best set up is for the stock you are analysing
2) It incorporates volatility into the strategy – when stocks are trading outside of a predetermined volatility band, a trade will not be entered. This accommodates traders who tend to get shaken out of trades too early.
3) It looks at the impact of “buying the dip” – often a common strategy employed by many traders which now can be backtested and reviewed to see if it actually helped or hindered the trade.
4) It measures your trade plan against your R – what you are willing to risk – and calculates your target profit based on your R multiple
5) It provides a non repaint signal on your base strategy and provides you with signals to trade smaller or shorter signals within the bigger strategy.
6) This includes elements from the Squeeze Tool namely the histogram and. stochastic entry and exit criteria
There are some additional visual tools:
• Squeeze signals - I am a big fan of the TTM squeeze however the Squeeze by itself can be hard to trade. Seeing a squeeze fire long on a chart can add to trade confidence.
• Seeing zones of support and resistance rather than single lines can also give you some leeway in terms of not getting pushed out of a trade too soon.
The backtester is always reviewed on a 2 to 3 year period to get an understanding of win rate %, profit ratio and average duration of trade. As an option trader knowing that a high probability move is playing out allows me to make sure that I don’t undercut the time frame for the expiration of the option relative to the historical average duration of a trade. Backtesting on shorter times is unrealistic.
Key benefits
1) It will save you a ton of time. I don’t have to sit in front of a screen watching ticks each day. I can plan for an entry, set an alert for a trade and when the conditions are met the TradingView system sends me a message and I will go and confirm a trade, execute it, set my alerts for control and move on with my life.
2) It allows me to review trade ideas in a consistent manner using the best trade plan and set up for a stock.
3) It forces me to be patient and not panic (always a good thing). With an adjustable volatility feature I can modify the volatility band in the trade plan to accommodate choppy market conditions.
4) It looks at both sides of the market (long and short) and you can calculate the impact of being market neutral or having a directional bias.
I hope this tool helps you to achieve some degree of peace in your trading.
To get access to the tool, please contact the author.
Dividend Pension TableHello, you all know about dividend retirement.
It was very difficult to calculate the retirement with dividends by making regular purchases in shares. Thanks to this tool, it is now very easy.
You can start the strategy by choosing the history of the dividend investment, choosing how many units you will receive in a regular amount each month, or the value for money.
In the table on the side, you will see the amount of your regular purchases, dividend income and the amount of your purchases.
Your total investment and savings will also be visible at the top of the chart.
With this table, you will be able to see the analysis of all dividend-paying stocks. Excel era is over :)
When was the last time we were in stagflation?Here I coded a strategy that indicates when we should enter a long position in the US dollar. The three indicators I used were the Inflation Rate, 10Y interest rate, and GDP growth rate. Right now in our economy, It seems as though we are in stagflation due to high inflation and declining GDP growth. Thoughts on how our government should handle the oversupply of money in the economy right now are another conversation. The reason I built this indicator is to see when the last time our country was in this type of market environment was and to see how far the dollar rose from that point on. It is necessary to say that the US dollar generally does not show these steep increases in value unless there is a hard cut in the Money supply. However, what we see is that the last time we were in stagflation was around the early 1980s when the dollar value rose to around 107( the levels we're at right now) and did not stop until It hit its peak at 150!!!! This isn't all that exciting really because if the FED follows a similar path as It did back in the '80s then we are going to see a whole lot more money supply being cut, an increase in interest rates, and a declining GDP Growth rate.
ATTENTION: This indicator does not tell you to buy any financial instrument that follows the DXY(US Dollar index), with that being said please feel free to comment and tell me your opinion. whether it's how bad my coding is(I'm a beginner sorry!!) or whether my ideas on our market environment right now are bogus or just do not make sense.
Gotobi TeriyakiUSDJPY Anomaly.
This anomaly originated in Japan.
Buy from 2:00 pm Japan time.
Sell at 9:55 Japan time.
Japanese importers often settle payments to suppliers in dollars, and exchange yen for dollars on settlement days (days falling on a 5 or 10, so-called goto days).
Therefore, on goto days, there is sometimes a shortage of dollars held by financial institutions. This is called the "middle price shortage," and financial institutions purchase dollars through the foreign exchange market to resolve the middle price shortage.
As a result, the dollar currency is bought and USD/JPY depreciates against the yen. Since the yen has historically appreciated against the dollar, exporting companies make forward exchange contracts with financial institutions as a risk hedge.
Financial institutions are therefore forced to procure dollars in the market because they do not have enough dollars in their balance sheets to deliver to exporters.
Five days is called "GO" in Japanese.
Ten days is called "TO" in Japanese.
In Japanese, a day is called "BI".
Now I can eat teriyaki all day long :)
ドル円ゴトー日ストラテジーを作ってみました。
BEST Strategy Template AutoviewHello Traders
I've build a strategy template building for you the AUTOVIEW commands
I made this template based on this documentation: use.autoview.with.pink
You can select whether you want to use an SL or not, a TP or not, using the borrow/repay feature (only for Binance), ... and it will build dynamically the Autoview commands and will send them when entry/exit alerts trigger.
The template accept SL/TP in percentage or pips/USD distance from the entry price
MAGICAL !!!! (not really, just some dumb coding)
Users will have to specify from the settings:
- the Autoview account name
- the symbol name: I couldn't capture it from the chart because sometimes the symbol name on the broker side is different than the one from the TradingView side
- the position size
- the broker name (Tradovate, Binance, Bitmex, FTX, ...)
- if you want to send the alerts to your DEMO or LIVE account
- a debug mode to check if your alerts are well formatted
- and a few other interesting options...
If you want to use it, you'll have to update the dummy entries logic lines 97-98 and replacing those two lines by your own stuff
I'll make the ProfitView and 3Commas and Alertatron versions shortly.
Basically the same script but with the commands built for those 3 automation third-parties.
Best regards
Dave
Nabz-BBMACD-2022-V1.1I have tried to make script which triggers indicators on combination of different feedback including Bollinger bands and MACD. Also used some of my logic by trial and error, It gave 744%+ profit on back-testing on coin RUNE/USDT from Jan 2021. It is my first script, I am happy to help the community. Please share your feedback.
