4H Candle Curves4H Candle Curves - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator reveals curve vs continuation behavior in NQ Futures by analyzing how price responds after breaking the first-hour range. Based on 10+ years of statistical analysis (2013-2025, 3,136+ trading days), it identifies which 4-hour sessions exhibit mean reversion (curve) behavior versus trend continuation when Q2 (second hour) breaks Q1 (first hour) extremes.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All curve probabilities and statistics were derived from a decade-long dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: THE CURVE
What is a "Curve"?
A curve occurs when price breaks out of the first hour's range in Q2 (hour 2), but then reverses direction in the second half (Q3+Q4) to make a new extreme on the opposite side.
Curve Example (Upside Break → Downside Reversal):
Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050
Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100
Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price curves back down, makes new LOW below 25,000
Result: Q2 broke high, but second half curved back to make new low below Q1 = CURVE
What is "Continuation"?
Continuation occurs when Q2 breaks Q1 range and the second half extends further in the same direction.
Continuation Example (Upside Break → Further Upside):
Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050
Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100
Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price continues higher, makes new HIGH above 25,100
Result: Q2 broke high, second half made new high above Q2 = CONTINUATION
THE CRITICAL DISCOVERY: 6AM IS THE CURVE SESSION
Curve Probabilities by Session:
When Q2 Breaks Q1 HIGH:
6AM: 60.6% curve (new low below Q1) | 38.5% continuation
2AM: 38.4% curve | 46.7% continuation (balanced)
10AM: 17.2% curve | 60.4% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias
6PM: 29.6% curve | 59.0% continuation
10PM: 27.5% curve | 55.1% continuation
When Q2 Breaks Q1 LOW:
6AM: 64.4% curve (new high above Q1) | 35.0% continuation ← HIGHEST curve
2AM: 42.8% curve | 43.3% continuation (balanced)
10AM: 16.7% curve | 51.6% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias
6PM: 33.7% curve | 51.1% continuation
10PM: 33.1% curve | 48.6% continuation
Key Insight:
6AM is THE ONLY SESSION with >60% curve probability in both directions. This makes it a uniquely exploitable mean reversion session. When Q2 breaks Q1 range during 6AM, expect the second half to curve back 60-64% of the time.
10AM shows the opposite: Strong continuation bias (60% when Q2 breaks high, 52% when Q2 breaks low). 10AM breakouts tend to follow through.
HOW IT WORKS: THE QUARTER SYSTEM
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
Each trading day (6pm-5pm) is divided into six 4-hour periods:
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open | Blue box
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session | Purple box
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London | Orange box
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open | Green box ← THE CURVE SESSION
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning | Red box ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon | Yellow box (3 hours only)
The Four Quarters:
Each 4-hour candle (except 2PM) is divided into four 1-hour quarters:
Q1 (Hour 1, minutes 0-60): Establishes initial range
Q2 (Hour 2, minutes 60-120): Tests Q1 range - breaks or holds?
Q3 (Hour 3, minutes 120-180): Second half begins
Q4 (Hour 4, minutes 180-240): Second half completes
2PM candle only has 3 hours (14:00-17:00), so quarters are adjusted accordingly.
The Three-Step Analysis:
STEP 1: Q1 Establishes Range
The first hour sets the high and low for the session. This becomes the reference range.
STEP 2: Q2 Break Detection
The indicator monitors whether Q2 (hour 2) breaks above Q1 high or below Q1 low.
STEP 3: Second Half Response
Once Q2 breaks Q1 range, the indicator tracks what happens in Q3+Q4:
Does price CURVE back to make new extreme on opposite side?
Does price CONTINUE to make new extreme in same direction?
Or does price stay within the established range?
VISUAL ELEMENTS EXPLAINED
1. 4-Hour Candle Boxes
Colored boxes display the high-to-low range of each 4H candle:
Blue = 6PM (evening session start)
Purple = 10PM (Asia session)
Orange = 2AM (early London)
Green = 6AM ← THE CURVE SESSION (watch for mean reversion)
Red = 10AM ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION (trend follow-through)
Yellow = 2PM (afternoon close, 3 hours only)
2. Quarter Separator Lines
Vertical dotted lines mark the boundaries between quarters (1H, 2H, 3H marks). This helps you see:
When Q1 ends (after 1 hour)
When Q2 ends / second half begins (after 2 hours)
When Q3 ends (after 3 hours)
3. Candle Name Labels
At the 2-hour mark (Q2/Q3 boundary), a label shows:
Candle name (e.g., "6am")
Directional indicator:
🔼 = Q2 broke Q1 HIGH
🔽 = Q2 broke Q1 LOW
⚠️ = Q2 broke BOTH Q1 high and low (extended range)
No symbol = Q2 stayed within Q1 range
THE LIVE STATUS TABLE
Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-right), this table shows real-time analysis of the current 4H candle.
Header Row:
"LIVE: CANDLE" - Shows which 4H session you're currently in
Quarter Row:
"Quarter: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 (Hour X)" - Shows which quarter you're currently forming
STATUS Section:
The status updates dynamically based on what has happened:
During Q1-Q2 (First Half):
"⏳ Q1 Building..." - First hour forming, range being established
"⏳ Q2 Building..." - Second hour in progress, Q2 within Q1 range so far
"🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" - Q2 has broken above Q1 high
"🔽 Q2 Broke Q1 LOW" - Q2 has broken below Q1 low
"⚠️ Q2 Broke BOTH Q1 Extremes" - Q2 extended range in both directions
During Q3-Q4 (Second Half):
"✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half reversed to opposite side
"✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half extended further same direction
"⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" - Q2 broke Q1, waiting to see if curve or continuation
"📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" - Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no curve/continuation setup)
EXPECTATION Section:
Shows the probabilities based on the current state:
When Q2 breaks Q1 high in 6AM:
EXPECT 2nd half:
CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%
CONT (high > Q2): 38.5%
This tells you there's a 60.6% chance the second half will curve back to make a new low below Q1, versus 38.5% chance it continues higher above Q2.
When curve/continuation is confirmed:
Q2 broke high → 2nd half made new LOW below Q1
Curve: 60.6%
Shows what actually happened and the historical probability.
Color Coding:
Purple background = Curve confirmed (mean reversion occurred)
Green background = Continuation confirmed (upside extension)
Red background = Continuation confirmed (downside extension)
Blue background = Second half in progress, watching
Yellow background = No Q2 break (no setup)
Gray background = Still in first half, building
THE CURVE REFERENCE TABLE
Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-left), this table provides a quick reference for all sessions.
Table Structure:
TOP SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 HIGH"
BOTTOM SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW"
How to Read:
"Curve" column = % of time second half makes new extreme on OPPOSITE side
"Cont" column = % of time second half makes new extreme in SAME direction
"Winner" column = Which behavior is more likely
Purple highlight = Curve is the winner (higher %)
Blue highlight = Continuation is the winner
🔥 symbol = Strong edge (>60%)
Quick Reference Usage:
You're in 10AM session, Q2 just broke Q1 high. Look at top section, 10AM row:
Curve: 17.2%
Cont: 60.4%
Winner: CONT
Interpretation: 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. Only 17% chance of curving back. Trade with the break, not against it.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: Perfect 6AM Curve Setup
Scenario:
6AM candle in progress
7:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,000 - 18,050
7:30 AM: Price breaks above 18,050, reaches 18,075 (Q2 broke Q1 high)
Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH"
Expectation: "CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%"
Trading Decision:
Even though price broke to new highs, the 60.6% curve probability suggests looking for short opportunities expecting price to curve back below 18,000 in Q3-Q4.
Typical Outcome:
8:15 AM (Q3): Price starts declining
9:15 AM (Q4): Price makes new low at 17,990
Result: ✓ CURVE CONFIRMED
Example 2: 10AM Continuation Signal
Scenario:
10AM candle in progress
11:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,100 - 18,150
11:45 AM: Price breaks above 18,150, reaches 18,180 (Q2 broke Q1 high)
Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH"
Expectation: "CONT (high > Q2): 60.4%"
Trading Decision:
With 60.4% continuation probability, breakout likely to follow through. Look for long opportunities expecting extension above 18,180 in Q3-Q4.
Typical Outcome:
12:30 PM (Q3): Price continues higher to 18,200
1:15 PM (Q4): Price makes new high at 18,225
Result: ✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED
Example 3: Using Reference Table During Live Trading
You see Q2 breaking Q1 low during 2AM session:
Quick reference check:
2AM row, "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" section
Curve: 42.8% | Cont: 43.3% | Winner: Balanced
Interpretation: This is a coin flip - 2AM session is balanced when Q2 breaks low. Don't force a directional bias. Wait for second half price action confirmation or skip the setup.
Example 4: No Setup Scenario
Scenario:
6AM candle, Q2 ends at 8:00 AM
Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no break above or below)
Live table shows: "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred"
Trading Decision:
No curve/continuation setup exists. This analysis only applies when Q2 breaks Q1 range. Monitor for different strategies or wait for next 4H candle.
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY
Data Foundation:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars for precise quarter tracking
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Total 4H Candles Analyzed: ~18,800+ individual sessions
Analysis Process:
For each 4H candle in the dataset:
Calculate Q1 high and low (first hour range)
Track whether Q2 breaks Q1 high, Q1 low, both, or neither
When Q2 breaks Q1 range, measure second half response:
Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q1? (curve when Q2 broke high)
Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q1? (curve when Q2 broke low)
Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke high)
Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke low)
Calculate percentages for each session
Why NQ-Specific?
Different futures contracts exhibit different intraday personality:
NQ (NASDAQ):
Tech-heavy, volatility-prone
6AM shows extreme curve behavior (60-64%) due to NY Open reversal tendency
10AM shows strong continuation (60%) as trends establish
ES (S&P 500) would show different probabilities because:
Lower volatility than NQ
Different institutional participation patterns
Different response to macro events
The indicator's probabilities are calibrated specifically to NQ behavior patterns. Using it on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce misleading signals.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Quarter-Based Curve Analysis: Unlike traditional indicators that only identify breakouts, this tracks what happens after the breakout. The curve vs continuation framework is novel and provides directional edge.
Session-Specific Behavior: Recognizes that 6AM behaves fundamentally differently than 10AM. Most indicators apply the same logic across all sessions. This indicator provides session-specific probabilities.
Statistical Validation: Every probability shown is backed by 10+ years of data (2,900+ candles per session). Not based on theory or discretionary observation.
Real-Time Quarter Tracking: Precisely identifies which quarter you're in and what stage of the pattern is forming. Provides forward-looking probabilities based on current state.
The 6AM Discovery: The 60-64% curve probability in 6AM is a quantified, repeatable edge that contradicts traditional "breakout = continuation" assumptions. This session exhibits mean reversion characteristics that most traders miss.
Dual-Direction Analysis: Tracks both upside breaks (Q2 > Q1 high) and downside breaks (Q2 < Q1 low) separately, as they can have different probabilities.
Visual Quarter System: The combination of colored boxes, quarter separators, and real-time labels provides instant visual understanding of pattern stage and expected behavior.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Identify Current 4H Candle
Check which colored box you're in and what session it represents.
Step 2: Wait for Q2 to Complete
The setup doesn't exist until Q2 (hour 2) breaks Q1 range. Monitor the live table.
Step 3: Check Q2 Break Status
Did Q2 break Q1 high? Q1 low? Both? Or neither?
Step 4: Consult Reference Table
Look up current session in curve reference table. What's the probability?
Step 5: Apply Session-Specific Strategy
For 6AM (60-64% curve):
Q2 breaks high → Expect curve back for new low
Q2 breaks low → Expect curve back for new high
Strategy: FADE the Q2 break, look for reversal entries in Q3-Q4
For 10AM (52-60% continuation):
Q2 breaks high → Expect continuation higher
Q2 breaks low → Expect continuation lower
Strategy: TRADE WITH the Q2 break, look for continuation entries in Q3-Q4
For 2AM (38-43% curve, 43-47% continuation):
Balanced probabilities
Strategy: Wait for Q3 price action to confirm direction, or skip
For 6PM/10PM (50-59% continuation):
Moderate continuation bias
Strategy: Lean with the break but use tight stops
Step 6: Monitor Live Status
Watch the live table for confirmation:
"✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" = Mean reversion occurred
"✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" = Follow-through occurred
"⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" = Still developing
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 6AM for curve trades - This is THE high-probability mean reversion session
Focus on 10AM for continuation trades - This is THE high-probability breakout session
Be cautious with 2AM - Balanced probabilities mean lower edge
Use quarter separators - Enter trades early in Q3 after Q2 break, don't wait for Q4
Combine with price action - Don't blindly fade 6AM or follow 10AM; wait for confirming price structure
Respect the 60% rule - 6AM curve happens 60% of time, which means 40% it doesn't. Manage risk accordingly
Watch for "No Q2 Break" - If Q2 doesn't break Q1, this analysis doesn't apply
Consider overnight context - If 6AM opens with huge gap, curve probability may be affected
SETTINGS & CUSTOMIZATION
Display Settings:
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Toggle colored range boxes
Box Colors - Customize color for each session
Show Quarter Separators - Show/hide 1H, 2H, 3H lines
Show Candle Name Labels - Show/hide session labels at 2H mark
Separator Line Style - Solid/Dashed/Dotted
Max Historical Candles - How many past 4H candles to display (1-50)
Table Settings:
Show Live Status Table - Toggle real-time analysis table
Show Curve Reference Table - Toggle probability reference table
Table Positions - Place tables in any corner
Table Text Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - All probabilities are NQ-specific, do not use on other instruments
Requires Q2 break - No curve/continuation setup exists if Q2 stays within Q1 range
Probabilities, not certainties - 60% means it happens 6 out of 10 times, not every time
Lower timeframe noise - 1-minute tracking can be choppy, consider using 5min+ for entries
Gap days - Large overnight gaps may affect curve/continuation probabilities
Not standalone - Use as confluence with your strategy, not as sole decision factor
Historical performance - Past statistics don't guarantee future results
WHY THE CURVE CONCEPT MATTERS
Traditional trading wisdom says: "Breakout = Continuation"
This indicator proves that's not always true. Specifically, during the 6AM session (late London + NY Open), when Q2 breaks the Q1 range, price curves back to the opposite extreme 60-64% of the time.
This creates a unique exploitable edge:
Most breakout traders go LONG when Q2 breaks Q1 high
But in 6AM, 60.6% of the time, price curves back down for new low
Shorting the breakout (counter-intuitive) is the higher-probability trade
The 10AM session shows the opposite:
Breakouts in 10AM tend to follow through (52-60%)
Traditional "trade the breakout" strategy works better here
By knowing which session you're in, you can adapt your strategy to match the session's personality.
FINAL NOTES
This indicator distills 10+ years of NQ intraday behavior into actionable, session-specific probabilities. The discovery that 6AM exhibits 60-64% curve behavior while 10AM exhibits 52-60% continuation behavior provides a statistical edge for mean reversion and trend-following traders respectively.
The highest-probability setups:
6AM Q2 break → FADE (60-64% edge for curve)
10AM Q2 break → FOLLOW (52-60% edge for continuation)
2AM = SKIP (balanced probabilities, no clear edge)
Master the 6AM curve and 10AM continuation first. These two sessions provide the clearest statistical edges.
Remember: Trade with proper risk management. This tool provides probabilities based on historical behavior, not predictions of future performance.
Penunjuk dan strategi
4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator is a data-driven probability framework for NQ Futures traders that predicts High-of-Day (HOD) and Low-of-Day (LOD) placement based on statistical analysis of 3,136+ trading days (2013-2025). Unlike traditional indicators that rely on technical signals, this tool uses checkpoint-based state analysis with zero forward-looking bias to provide real-time probabilities of whether the daily range is complete.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All probabilities, patterns, and statistics were derived from a 10+ year historical dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: CHECKPOINT METHODOLOGY
What is a Checkpoint?
A checkpoint occurs when a 4-hour candle closes. At this moment, the indicator "locks" the current market state and calculates probabilities for the remainder of the trading day. The key innovation is that state never changes after locking - probabilities remain constant throughout the session until the next checkpoint.
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon (3 hours only)
Five Checkpoints:
10PM Checkpoint - After 6PM closes
2AM Checkpoint - After 10PM closes
6AM Checkpoint - After 2AM closes
10AM Checkpoint - After 6AM closes (most critical)
2PM Checkpoint - After 10AM closes (highest conviction fade signals)
HOW IT WORKS: THE THREE-FACTOR STATE SYSTEM
At each checkpoint, the indicator evaluates three critical factors to determine probability:
1. ELIMINATIONS (Quantity)
An "elimination" occurs when a candle trades beyond a previous candle's high or low, effectively removing that candle from contention for HOD/LOD.
Example at 10AM Checkpoint:
6PM high = 18,000
10PM high = 18,050 (eliminates 6PM high)
2AM high = 18,100 (eliminates 10PM high)
6AM high = 18,075 (does NOT eliminate 2AM high)
Result: 2 eliminations
The number of eliminations indicates trend strength:
0 eliminations = Range-bound, high probability extremes already set
1-2 eliminations = Moderate trend
3-4 eliminations = Strong trend day, range likely to extend
2. STRUCTURE (Pattern Type)
The indicator distinguishes between two elimination patterns:
Sequential: Eliminations occur in order (6pm → 10pm → 2am → 6am → 10am)
Indicates smooth, consistent trend
Example: 10pm eliminates 6pm, then 2am eliminates 10pm (sequential)
Skip: Eliminations skip candles
Indicates choppy/reversal behavior
Example: 2am eliminates 6pm but NOT 10pm (skip pattern)
Why it matters: Skip patterns show 2X probability differences compared to sequential patterns. At 10AM checkpoint with 2 eliminations, skip pattern shows 64% participation rate vs 36% for sequential pattern with previous survived.
3. PREVIOUS CANDLE STATUS
Did the immediately prior candle get eliminated?
Eliminated: Previous candle's high/low was taken out
Indicates relentless trend
Higher probability of continuation
Survived: Previous candle's high/low still intact
Indicates trend pause
Higher probability of mean reversion or range completion
Critical insight: High and low are tracked separately. At 2AM checkpoint, 10PM might have eliminated 6PM high (relentless uptrend) but NOT eliminated 6PM low (low survived). This creates different probabilities for HOD vs LOD.
VISUAL ELEMENTS
4-Hour Candle Boxes
Each 4H candle is displayed as a colored box showing its range:
Gray = 6PM (evening)
Blue = 10PM (Asia)
Purple = 2AM (early London)
Orange = 6AM (London + NY Open) - THE CURVE SESSION
Teal = 10AM (NY morning) - THE MONEY SESSION
Red = 2PM (NY afternoon) - THE FADE SESSION
HOD/LOD Lines
Black horizontal lines extend from current HOD/LOD with labels showing:
Which candle set the extreme
Current price level
THE CHECKPOINT TABLE EXPLAINED
Table Header:
Shows current checkpoint (e.g., "🎯 10AM CHECKPOINT") or "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" if between checkpoints.
Main Metrics (Side-by-Side Comparison):
The table displays HOD and LOD separately in two columns because they can have different patterns:
METRIC
HODLOD Eliminations
Number of candles eliminated so far for highs
Number of candles eliminated so far for lows
Structure
Sequential or Skip pattern for highs
Sequential or Skip pattern for lows
Prev Candle
Was previous candle's high eliminated or did it survive?
Was previous candle's low eliminated or did it survive?
Pattern
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Color Coding:
Structure Row:
White = Sequential (smooth trend)
Orange = Skip (choppy/reversal)
Previous Candle Row:
Red = Eliminated (relentless trend continuing)
Blue = Survived (trend paused)
Pattern Row:
Red = Relentless (previous eliminated + sequential = strong trend)
Blue = Paused (previous survived + sequential = trend pause)
Orange = Skip/Chop (skip pattern = reversal likely)
Gray = Early (0-1 eliminations, too early to tell)
Probability Section:
Prob Already In: Percentage chance that HOD/LOD has already been set
Color coding:
Green (>75%) = High confidence extreme is in, FADE
Yellow (45-75%) = Moderate confidence
Red (<45%) = Low confidence extreme is in, CONTINUATION likely
Sample Size: Shows how many historical occurrences match this exact state (n=XXX)
Larger samples = higher confidence
Most common states have n=500-2,000+
Current: Which candle currently holds HOD/LOD
Pattern Guide Section:
Appears when you have 2+ eliminations. Provides interpretation:
📈 Paused: Trend has paused, 2pm more likely to set extreme
📈 Relentless: Breaking higher/lower, continuation expected
📈 Skip/Chop: Choppy pattern, next session likely
Same for lows with 📉 symbol.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: High Conviction Fade Setup
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 0 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: None (no eliminations yet)
Prev Candle: Survived
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 68.9% (n=582)
LOD Prob Already In: 73.6% (n=785)
Interpretation: Range is likely complete. Fade extremes. With 0 eliminations and 70%+ probability, this is a high-conviction mean reversion signal.
Example 2: Strong Continuation Signal
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 3 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Eliminated (relentless)
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 29.8% (n=1,758)
LOD Prob Already In: 34.6% (n=1,451)
Pattern: 📈 Relentless / 📉 Relentless
Interpretation: Strong trend day. Only 30-35% chance range is complete. Look for breakouts in direction of trend. 10AM and 2PM likely to extend range.
Example 3: Pattern Structure Edge
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Skip (orange background)
Prev Candle: Eliminated vs Alternative State:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Survived
Result: Skip pattern shows 64% chance 10AM participates vs 36% for sequential+survived. Skip pattern = 2X more likely to see 10AM high. This structural edge is unique to this indicator.
Example 4: Different HOD vs LOD Patterns
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
HOD: 2 eliminations, Sequential, Previous Eliminated (Relentless) = 46.7% in
LOD: 2 eliminations, Skip, Previous Eliminated (Choppy) = 48.4% in
Interpretation: Highs show relentless uptrend but lows show choppy behavior. This divergence suggests potential for upside continuation but with volatility. Not a clean trend day.
KEY CHECKPOINT STATISTICS (DERIVED FROM 10-YEAR DATASET)
10PM Checkpoint (After 6PM):
Very early in day
13.5% HOD in, 21.3% LOD in
Most likely outcome: Range extends into 6AM/10AM
2AM Checkpoint (After 10PM):
Still early
With 0 elims: 22-31% in (balanced)
With 1 elim: 8-12% in (strong trend signal)
6AM Checkpoint (After 2AM) - Critical Decision Point:
With 0 elims: 40-47% in (balanced, could go either way)
With 2 elims: 18-22% in (strong trend into 6AM/10AM)
Most likely outcome: 10AM sets extremes (~38-40%)
10AM Checkpoint (After 6AM) - Highest Conviction:
With 0 elims: 69-74% in → FADE (high confidence)
With 3 elims: 30-35% in → BUY/SELL continuation
This is THE money checkpoint for high-probability setups
2PM Checkpoint (After 10AM) - Maximum Fade Conviction:
With 0-3 elims: 67-95% in → FADE strongly
With 4 elims: 49-61% in (monster trend, weaker fade)
2PM is primarily a mean reversion session
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DATA
All probabilities are derived from analysis of:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Methodology: Real-time checkpoint analysis with zero forward-looking bias
Why NQ-Specific?
Each futures contract has unique:
Session characteristics (6AM in NQ shows 60-64% curve behavior, other sessions differ)
Timing patterns (NQ's 10AM session has 67-74% immediate takeouts)
Volatility profiles (NQ 2PM shows 56% bullish bias vs ES shows different bias)
Using this indicator on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce inaccurate results because the probability tables are NQ-specific.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Zero Forward-Looking Bias: State locks at checkpoint moments. Traditional indicators recalculate continuously, introducing bias. This indicator freezes probabilities at the exact moment a 4H candle closes.
Three-Factor State System: Combines elimination count, structure pattern, and previous candle status. Most indicators only track one dimension. This multi-factor approach provides 2X+ probability differentials.
Separate HOD/LOD Tracking: Highs and lows can have different patterns simultaneously (relentless high with choppy low). This indicator tracks them separately for precision.
Pattern Structure Analysis: Distinguishes between sequential and skip patterns, a concept not found in standard indicators. Skip patterns show mean reversion while sequential shows continuation.
10+ Year Statistical Foundation: Every probability is backed by hundreds to thousands of historical occurrences (sample sizes shown in table). Not based on theories or assumptions.
Checkpoint-Specific Probabilities: Different checkpoints have different probability profiles. 10AM checkpoint with 0 eliminations = 70%+ fade. 6AM checkpoint with same state = 40%+ fade. Context matters.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Wait for Checkpoint
The table will show "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" until a 4H candle closes. Probabilities are only valid at checkpoint moments.
Step 2: Read the State
Check the three factors:
How many eliminations?
Sequential or skip?
Previous candle eliminated or survived?
Step 3: Check Probability
Look at "Prob Already In" percentage:
>75% (Green) = High confidence extreme is set, fade
45-75% (Yellow) = Moderate confidence, use other confirmation
<45% (Red) = Low confidence extreme is set, continuation likely
Step 4: Check Sample Size
Larger sample (n=1,000+) = higher confidence
Smaller sample (n=50-200) = use caution, edge is real but less robust
Step 5: Consider Pattern
Read the pattern guide:
Relentless = trend continuing
Paused = trend stalled, mean reversion
Skip/Chop = reversal/range likely
Step 6: Compare HOD vs LOD
If both show similar patterns = cleaner signal
If divergent patterns = complex day, be cautious
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 10AM and 2PM checkpoints - These have the highest conviction signals
Combine with price action - Don't fade blindly at 90% probability if price is breaking out strongly
Larger samples = better edges - Prioritize setups with n=500+
Watch for pattern divergence - When HOD and LOD show different patterns, expect complexity
Remember session characteristics:
6AM = THE CURVE SESSION (60-64% mean reversion when Q2 breaks Q1)
10AM = THE MONEY SESSION (67-74% immediate takeouts, highest conviction)
2PM = THE FADE SESSION (67-95% extremes already in)
SETTINGS
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Display colored boxes for each 4H candle
Show HOD/LOD Lines - Display horizontal lines at current extremes
Show Checkpoint Analysis - Display probability table
Table Position - Choose where to place the checkpoint table
Table Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
Colors - Customize box colors for each session
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - Do not use on other instruments
Not a standalone system - Use as confluence with your strategy
Historical data - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
Sample size variance - Some states have smaller samples, use judgment
Requires understanding - Read this guide fully before trading with this tool
FINAL NOTES
This indicator represents 10+ years of NQ futures data distilled into actionable, real-time probabilities. The checkpoint methodology ensures zero forward-looking bias, while the three-factor state system provides granular edge that traditional indicators miss.
Remember: This tool provides probabilities, not certainties. Trade with proper risk management, and use this as one input in your decision-making process.
deKoder | VWAP | Volume Weighted Average PriceAn advanced, open-source Volume Weighted Average Price indicator with multi-period anchoring, standard deviation bands, previous period value area extension, comprehensive alerts, and enhanced visual context.
This script is a significant upgrade over standard VWAP implementations (including TradingView's built-in VWAP (the basis for this script) and typical community versions). It is designed for experienced intraday, swing, and positional traders who require precise, context-aware mean reference levels with minimal chart clutter.
Key Features & Trading Value
1 | Previous Period Value Area Extension
Automatically extends the prior anchor period's VWAP and ±1σ bands into the current period as reference lines.
Optional translucent fill between the previous ±1σ bands creates a clear "previous value area" zone.
Why it matters : The edges of the prior period's value area often act as dynamic support/resistance or mean reversion zones. This visual persistence eliminates manual drawing and provides immediate context for reactions at prior fair value zones. These are especially powerful on intraday charts when using Daily/Weekly/Quarterly anchors.
2 | Comprehensive Approach Alerts
Configurable proximity-based alerts trigger when price approaches (from either side) any plotted level: current VWAP, all six deviation bands (±1σ, ±2σ, ±3σ), and previous period VWAP/±1σ value area.
Adjustable trigger percentage and minimum bar cooldown prevent alert spam during consolidation.
Why it matters : Enables hands-off monitoring of potential mean reversion setups, deviation extremes, or breakout/rejection candidates without constant screen watching.
3 | Additional Professional-Grade Enhancements
Flexible Anchor Periods : Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly (default), Yearly, Decade, Century, plus event-based resets (Earnings, Dividends, Splits).
Intelligent Visibility Controls :
Hide entire indicator on selected higher timeframes (1H and above).
Dynamic distance filter removes off-screen levels (based on % from price).
Limit plotting to last X bars for performance and clarity.
Real-Time Info Table :
Displays current anchor, timeframe, and rounded live values for VWAP and all bands, enabling fast access to precise level values for order placement.
Fully customisable position, text size, font (monospace option), and price level decimal rounding.
Right-Side Labels with Tooltips :
Clean, minimal labels at current levels with hover tooltips allow you to quickly identify the level without cluttering the chart.
Customizable Styling :
Independently adjustable colours for VWAP and each deviation band pair.
Offset support for forward/backward shifting.
Recommended Use Cases
Intraday Scalping/Mean Reversion : 5m–15m charts with Daily anchor + previous value area as primary reference.
Swing Entries : Higher timeframes (1H–4H) using Weekly or Quarterly VWAP for bias, with previous quarter's value area as major confluence.
Deviation Trading : Watch for price interaction with ±2σ/±3σ bands combined with approach alerts for potential exhaustion.
Institutional Benchmarking : Quarterly/Yearly anchors approximate common institutional VWAP reset periods.
Additional Notes
Source fixed to hlc3 (industry standard for VWAP).
Enjoy cleaner, more contextual VWAP analysis.
| | deKoder | |
Released December 2025 | Open Source
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AlgoDesk SENSEX Option Buyer v1.4//@version=6
indicator("AlgoDesk SENSEX Option Buyer v1.4", overlay=true) // timeframe removed
//---------------------- Inputs --------------------------
rsiLength = input.int(14,"RSI Length")
macdFast = input.int(12,"MACD Fast")
macdSlow = input.int(26,"MACD Slow")
macdSig = input.int(9,"MACD Signal")
bbLength = input.int(20,"Bollinger Length")
bbMult = input.float(2.0,"BB Multiplier")
//---------------------- Indicator Calculations ----------
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
macd = ta.ema(close, macdFast) - ta.ema(close, macdSlow)
signal = ta.ema(macd, macdSig)
basis = ta.sma(close, bbLength)
dev = bbMult * ta.stdev(close, bbLength)
upperBand = basis + dev
lowerBand = basis - dev
vwap = ta.vwap(close)
//---------------------- Conditions ----------------------
bullish_rsi = rsi > 60
bearish_rsi = rsi < 40
macd_bull = ta.crossover(macd, signal)
macd_bear = ta.crossunder(macd, signal)
above_vwap = close > vwap
below_vwap = close < vwap
bb_up = close > upperBand
bb_dn = close < lowerBand
//---------------------- Signal Logic --------------------
callSignal = bullish_rsi and macd_bull and above_vwap and bb_up
putSignal = bearish_rsi and macd_bear and below_vwap and bb_dn
//---------------------- ATM Strike Detect ---------------
atm = math.round(close/100) * 100
//---------------------- Plot Signals --------------------
plotshape(callSignal,
title="CALL BUY",
style=shape.labelup,
location=location.belowbar,
color=color.new(color.green,0),
size=size.large,
text="CALL")
plotshape(putSignal,
title="PUT BUY",
style=shape.labeldown,
location=location.abovebar,
color=color.new(color.red,0),
size=size.large,
text="PUT")
plotshape(not callSignal and not putSignal,
title="NO TRADE",
style=shape.circle,
location=location.bottom,
color=color.new(color.gray,70),
size=size.tiny,
text="NT")
//---------------------- Display BB + VWAP ----------------
plot(upperBand,"Upper BB",color=color.green)
plot(lowerBand,"Lower BB",color=color.red)
plot(vwap,"VWAP",color=color.yellow)
//---------------------- Webhook JSON --------------------
alertMessageCall = str.format(
'{"sensex":"{0}","rsi":"{1}","signal":"CALL","strike":"{2}"}',
close, rsi, atm)
alertMessagePut = str.format(
'{"sensex":"{0}","rsi":"{1}","signal":"PUT","strike":"{2}"}',
close, rsi, atm)
// Alerts fire on signal confirmation
if callSignal
alert(alertMessageCall, alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
if putSignal
alert(alertMessagePut, alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
AlgoDesk SENSEX Option Buyer v1.4//@version=6
indicator("AlgoDesk SENSEX Option Buyer v1.4", overlay=true) // timeframe removed
//---------------------- Inputs --------------------------
rsiLength = input.int(14,"RSI Length")
macdFast = input.int(12,"MACD Fast")
macdSlow = input.int(26,"MACD Slow")
macdSig = input.int(9,"MACD Signal")
bbLength = input.int(20,"Bollinger Length")
bbMult = input.float(2.0,"BB Multiplier")
//---------------------- Indicator Calculations ----------
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
macd = ta.ema(close, macdFast) - ta.ema(close, macdSlow)
signal = ta.ema(macd, macdSig)
basis = ta.sma(close, bbLength)
dev = bbMult * ta.stdev(close, bbLength)
upperBand = basis + dev
lowerBand = basis - dev
vwap = ta.vwap(close)
//---------------------- Conditions ----------------------
bullish_rsi = rsi > 60
bearish_rsi = rsi < 40
macd_bull = ta.crossover(macd, signal)
macd_bear = ta.crossunder(macd, signal)
above_vwap = close > vwap
below_vwap = close < vwap
bb_up = close > upperBand
bb_dn = close < lowerBand
//---------------------- Signal Logic --------------------
callSignal = bullish_rsi and macd_bull and above_vwap and bb_up
putSignal = bearish_rsi and macd_bear and below_vwap and bb_dn
//---------------------- ATM Strike Detect ---------------
atm = math.round(close/100) * 100
//---------------------- Plot Signals --------------------
plotshape(callSignal,
title="CALL BUY",
style=shape.labelup,
location=location.belowbar,
color=color.new(color.green,0),
size=size.large,
text="CALL")
plotshape(putSignal,
title="PUT BUY",
style=shape.labeldown,
location=location.abovebar,
color=color.new(color.red,0),
size=size.large,
text="PUT")
plotshape(not callSignal and not putSignal,
title="NO TRADE",
style=shape.circle,
location=location.bottom,
color=color.new(color.gray,70),
size=size.tiny,
text="NT")
//---------------------- Display BB + VWAP ----------------
plot(upperBand,"Upper BB",color=color.green)
plot(lowerBand,"Lower BB",color=color.red)
plot(vwap,"VWAP",color=color.yellow)
//---------------------- Webhook JSON --------------------
alertMessageCall = str.format(
'{"sensex":"{0}","rsi":"{1}","signal":"CALL","strike":"{2}"}',
close, rsi, atm)
alertMessagePut = str.format(
'{"sensex":"{0}","rsi":"{1}","signal":"PUT","strike":"{2}"}',
close, rsi, atm)
// Alerts fire on signal confirmation
if callSignal
alert(alertMessageCall, alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
if putSignal
alert(alertMessagePut, alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
jitfxjitfx
This indicator plots Central Pivot Range (CPR) along with daily Support & Resistance levels up to 5 levels directly on the price chart. It is designed for intraday and positional traders who want a clean, rule-based structure for market bias, entries, and targets.
Features
Today’s CPR (Pivot, BC, TC)
Next Day CPR calculated from the completed daily candle (useful after market close)
Support & Resistance levels: S1–S5 and R1–R5
On/Off toggles for CPR, Next Day CPR, and S/R levels
Plots neatly on the price chart (overlay)
How to Use
Price above CPR → bullish bias
Price below CPR → bearish bias
Narrow CPR → potential breakout day
Wide CPR → range-bound / mean reversion
Use R levels as potential resistance/targets and S levels as demand/bounce zones
Best For
Index & stock intraday trading
Pre-market planning using Next Day CPR
Identifying structure, bias, and objective targets
DT Key LevelsThis indicator provides you with key levels and pivot points.
Asia high
Asia low
Asia EQ
Daily pivot
PDH
PDL
PWH
PWL
EQ
Resistance level 1,2 & 3
Support level 1,2 & 3
Currency VolumeShows the volumes in the currency of the chart including a custom moving average for noise attenuation.
BoxesLibLibrary "BoxesLib"
isOverlappingBox(_boxes, _top, _bottom)
Parameters:
_boxes (array)
_top (float)
_bottom (float)
isTooCloseBox(_boxes, _top, _bottom, zoneProximityPct)
Parameters:
_boxes (array)
_top (float)
_bottom (float)
zoneProximityPct (float)
createBox(_boxes, _top, _bottom, _leftBarIndex, _color, _txt, _is_breakout, numberLimit, zoneProximityPct, currentClose, isConfirmed)
Parameters:
_boxes (array)
_top (float)
_bottom (float)
_leftBarIndex (int)
_color (color)
_txt (string)
_is_breakout (bool)
numberLimit (int)
zoneProximityPct (float)
currentClose (float)
isConfirmed (bool)
manageBoxes(_boxes, _is_breakout, currentClose, isConfirmed)
Parameters:
_boxes (array)
_is_breakout (bool)
currentClose (float)
isConfirmed (bool)
Z-PointThe Z Point indicator is a clean and effective tool for tracking key intraday price levels. It focuses on the high and low of a specific target candle to provide daily reference points, helping traders gauge market sentiment and identify potential support and resistance zones.
How It Works:
Previous Day's Range (Gray Box): At the start of a new trading session, the indicator automatically identifies the high/low range of the target candle from the previous day. This range is then projected onto the current day as a gray box, visually highlighting a key area of interest that may act as support or resistance.
Current Day's Levels (Horizontal Lines): Once the target candle for the current day has formed, the gray box is automatically removed. The indicator then plots two new horizontal lines: a green line for that candle's high and a red line for its low. These lines serve as the primary reference levels for the remainder of the day.
Key Features:
Dynamic Reference: Automatically shifts focus from the previous day's range to the current day's levels.
Clean Visuals: Uses a simple box and line system that doesn't clutter the chart.
Intraday Analysis: Perfect for day traders looking to capitalize on reactions to key daily levels.
This indicator is best used on lower timeframes, such as the 5-minute chart.
THE ELVINATORTHE ELVINATOR is my trend-following momentum indicator built on the 20 EMA, 50 EMA, and 200 EMA, designed for trading **XAUUSD during the New York session (9:30–17:00 NY time), Monday through Friday**.
**How to trade it:**
* **Trend filter:** Only take **longs above the 200 EMA** and **shorts below the 200 EMA**. This keeps trades aligned with Gold’s dominant direction.
* **Long setups:** A **20 EMA cross above the 50 EMA** signals bullish momentum. Best entries come after a pullback into the 20–50 EMA zone followed by strong continuation candles.
* **Short setups:** A **20 EMA cross below the 50 EMA** signals bearish momentum. Look for pullbacks into the EMA zone and rejection before continuation lower.
* **Timing:** Focus on NY open and high-volume moves. Avoid choppy conditions and late-session exhaustion.
* **Risk & exits:** Place stops beyond recent swings or EMA structure. Targets can be prior highs/lows or scaled with trend continuation.
THE ELVINATOR is built for **structure, patience, and disciplined execution**, allowing traders to capitalize on Gold’s volatility without chasing noise.
Volume Edge Pro[wjdtks255]Volume Edge Pro: Indicator Description
Volume Edge Pro is an advanced volume analysis tool designed to identify institutional accumulation and significant supply levels. Unlike standard volume bars, this indicator categorizes trading volume into four distinct types based on price action and historical comparisons, helping traders spot high-probability breakout opportunities.
Key Components:
Blue Bars (PPV - Pocket Pivot Volume): Indicates institutional accumulation. It appears when up-day volume exceeds the highest down-day volume of the last 10 trading sessions.
Green Bars (RGV - Recent Green Volume): Represents strong buying pressure where up-day volume is higher than the 50-period moving average.
Red Bars (RRV - Recent Red Volume): Signifies heavy supply or selling pressure where down-day volume is higher than the 50-period moving average.
Grey Bars: Represents standard market volume without significant institutional involvement.
Trading Strategy (How to Trade)
1. Identifying Accumulation (The Base)
Look for multiple Blue Bars (PPV) during a consolidation phase or within a "base." This suggests that "Smart Money" is quietly accumulating shares without significantly driving up the price yet.
2. The Buy Signal
The ideal entry point is when the price breaks out of a consolidation resistance level, especially when the breakout is confirmed by a Blue (PPV) or Green (RGV) bar. The presence of PPV signals within the base increases the reliability of the breakout.
3. Overcoming Supply (The RRV Rule)
When a Red Bar (RRV) appears, it marks a level of "unconsumed supply."
Treat the high of the RRV candle as a resistance level.
A bullish reversal or continuation is confirmed only when the price reclaims the high of the RRV day or when subsequent PPVs/RGVs overwhelm the previous selling volume.
4. Risk Management
If a massive Red Bar (RRV) appears after a long uptrend and the price breaks below the prior support, it may indicate institutional distribution (selling), signaling a time to exit or tighten stop-losses.
Simple ema and sma cross
A simple EMA and SMA cross is an indicator that uses alpha from two moving averages: SMA (simple moving average) and EMA (exponential moving average).
The point where the EMA and SMA cross is usually a good place to enter a position.
The indicator includes smoothing settings to help you find the right calibration for your trading needs.
It also marks signals with triangles for easier use and includes alerts so you never miss a cross.
ATR Bands (MA Distance)ATR Bands (MA Distance) plots volatility-based bands at a multiple of ATR away from a selected moving average.
Unlike percentage envelopes or standard deviation bands, this indicator measures distance from the moving average using ATR, representing the market’s normal “breathing range” rather than statistical probability.
Key Features
The center line is a selectable moving average (EMA, SMA, RMA/Wilder, or WMA).
Upper and lower bands are calculated as:
Moving Average ± ATR × Multiplier
Band width automatically adapts to changing market volatility.
Designed for consistent use across different markets and timeframes without parameter re-optimization.
Non-repainting: all values are calculated only from confirmed historical bars.
Intended Use
ATR Bands (MA Distance) is best used as a context and preparation tool , not as a direct entry or exit signal.
Typical use cases include:
Identifying areas where price is extended relative to its recent volatility.
Visualizing normal vs. stretched price distance from the moving average.
Supporting range-based analysis or trade preparation when combined with other indicators (e.g., oscillators).
Important Notes / How NOT to Use
This indicator does NOT generate buy or sell signals by itself .
Touching or crossing a band does not imply an automatic reversal.
In strong trending markets, price may stay outside the bands for extended periods.
ATR Bands should not be interpreted as overbought/oversold levels on their own.
This indicator does NOT repaint. Once a bar is closed, its values will not change.
For best results:
Use ATR Bands as a preparation zone, then wait for confirmation from your own entry logic.
Disable or ignore band-based mean-reversion ideas during strong trend conditions.
Concept Summary (Short)
ATR Bands (MA Distance) visualize how far price has moved from its moving average in terms of volatility, without repainting and without relying on percentage deviation or statistical assumptions.
Optional Short Description (Preview)
Volatility-based, non-repainting ATR bands plotted at a distance from a moving average.
Designed for market context and trade preparation — not standalone signals.
Sarina - 6 EMA Smart Signals - V12292025Overview
This advanced trend-following indicator combines 6 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) into three synchronized layers to provide a comprehensive view of market structure, momentum, and potential future direction. Designed with visual clarity and professional analysis in mind, it uses a dynamic "ribbon" system and a composite momentum engine.
Key Features
Triple-Layer Ribbon System: EMAs are paired in three sets (Fast, Medium, Slow). The space between each pair is dynamically colored based on the relationship between price action and momentum.
4-Stage Dynamic Coloring: The fill color isn't just about the trend; it's about strength.
Strong Bullish/Bearish: Trend and Momentum are aligned.
Weak Bullish/Bearish: Trend is present, but momentum is fading.
Composite Trend Projection: Using a physics-based velocity and acceleration algorithm, the indicator plots three non-linear projection curves to forecast potential EMA paths.
Fully Customizable Signals: Includes 12 different signal types (EMA Crossovers and MACD Zero-Cross) for each layer, all toggleable and pre-configured for a clean chart experience.
Scale-Stable UI: Optimized for TradingView’s scaling system, ensuring projection lines stay perfectly aligned with price action during manual chart adjustments.
How to Use
Trend Ribbon: Look for "Strong" colors (Solid Green/Red) for high-probability trend following.
Soft Transparency: Use the opacity settings (35%, 50%, 75%) to overlay multiple layers without cluttering your view.
Projections: Observe the curvature of the projection lines. A flattening curve often precedes a trend reversal or consolidation.
Signal Layers: Enable EMA signals for trend entries and MACD signals for early momentum warnings.
Settings
Global Colors: Customize the 4-stage trend colors to fit your dark or light theme.
Layer Controls: Independent periods for all 6 EMAs and 3 MACD oscillators.
Projection Toggle: Enable/Disable the curve forecasting system.
Historical Returns [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
The Historical Returns indicator visualizes daily and monthly return data to help traders assess seasonal performance and volatility behavior. It provides a clean and informative dashboard showing the current month’s daily return bubbles, monthly return curves, and a snapshot of the current month and year performance. This tool is ideal for spotting recurring return patterns and understanding the broader profitability context of a symbol.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Daily Return Bubbles: Each trading day is analyzed for its return percentage, and plotted as a bubble with size proportional to the return magnitude.
Monthly Performance Curves: Average or cumulative returns are calculated and plotted to show how the current month is performing relative to historical averages.
Current Year Return: Current year performance as a single return value, giving traders context on long-term profitability.
Current Month Average Return: Current month average performance as a single return value, giving traders context on short-term profitability.
Extreme Return Labels: Optionally highlights daily returns above +4% or below -4% with labeled percentages for spike recognition.
🔵 FEATURES
Shows daily return bubbles (1%–7%+), color-coded by direction.
Labels monthly returns with the month name and percentage value.
Displays a performance dashboard with:
Daily return heatmap for the current month.
Average return for the current month.
Year-to-date return.
Toggle between average and cumulative modes for monthly return curves.
Clearly marks days with abnormal return spikes using optional labels.
Clean fallback warning if not on a daily chart ("⚠️USE DAILY TIMEFRAME").
Custom color themes for bullish and bearish values.
🔵 HOW TO USE
Use the monthly return curve to compare how the current month is performing against historical averages.
Look for clusters of positive or negative bubbles as signals of strong directional weeks.
Watch extreme return labels for volatility spikes or catalyst days.
Use year-to-date return to assess how the asset is trending in the broader macro cycle.
Combine with other BigBeluga tools to align trades with historically favorable periods.
🔵 CONCLUSION
Historical Returns is your visual companion for return analytics — helping you identify profitable months, detect volatility surges, and understand historical seasonality at a glance. With a clean dashboard and insightful overlays, this tool supports better timing and improved statistical edge in both short- and long-term trades.
NQ vs ES-RTY-YM Divergence MTF OSOpen source script version for my NQ vs ES-RTY-YM Divergence MTF indicator
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope + EMA Filter (Optimized for BTC)Best Way to Use This Nadaraya-Watson EnvelopeThis indicator is not a standalone "holy grail" system — it's a powerful predictive tool that estimates where price is "likely" to go based on historical patterns.Core Idea:The orange line = predicted "fair value" or mean price path
The blue cloud = expected range (dynamic support/resistance)
Price tends to mean-revert to the orange line
Best Practices:Trade bounces in ranging markets:BUY at lower band (green) when price is below orange line
SELL at upper band (red) when price is above orange line
Target: the orange line or opposite band
Trade breakouts in trending markets:If price breaks and closes strongly outside the cloud → potential trend start
Wait for pullback to orange line for entry in trend direction
Best timeframes:5m–15m: Scalping bounces
1H–4H: Swing trading mean reversion
Add confluence for higher win rate:Only take BUY if price is above EMA 200 (uptrend bias)
Combine with volume spike or RSI oversold/overbought
Use with support/resistance levels
Risk management:Stop loss: just outside the envelope
Take profit: at orange line or next band
enjoy
BO Rule: Body & Filter Duplicates** **
**BO Rule: Advanced Breakout & Retest (Body Only + Strict Sequence)**
This indicator is designed for Price Action traders who focus on **Structure Break & Retest** setups. Unlike standard fractal indicators, this script employs a strict "New Price Rule" and "Body-Only" logic to filter out noise and identifying high-probability trend reversals.
**Key Logic & Features:**
1. **Classic Levels (Body Only):**
* Resistance is defined by a Green candle followed by a Red candle.
* Support is defined by a Red candle followed by a Green candle.
* **Crucial:** The script strictly uses Candle **Bodies** (Open/Close) to define levels, ignoring Wicks to avoid fakeouts caused by market volatility.
2. **Strict Sequence (New Price Rule):**
* The "Reset Logic" ensures that once a signal is confirmed, all previous structure levels are considered obsolete.
* The script resets its memory and only looks for *new* structure levels formed *after* the latest confirmed signal.
3. **Breakout & Retest Confirmation:**
* The script waits for a valid breakout of the classic level.
* It then monitors for a **Retest & Rejection**.
* Signal is generated only when price revisits the broken level and closes respecting the new direction.
4. **Trend Filter (No Duplicates):**
* **Option Included:** You can enable "Filter Duplicate Signals" to see only Trend Reversals (e.g., Buy -> Sell -> Buy). This hides consecutive signals in the same direction to keep the chart clean.
5. **MTF Dashboard:**
* Monitor up to 5 different timeframes simultaneously on one chart.
**How to Use:**
* **Green Dashed Line:** Bullish Confirmation (Breakout + Retest).
* **Red Dashed Line:** Bearish Confirmation (Breakdown + Retest).
* **Settings:** You can toggle the "Filter Duplicates" and "New Price Rule" in the settings menu.
-------------------------------------------------------
** **
**BO Rule: 經典水平突破回踩 (實體判斷 + 嚴格序列規則)**
這是一個專為裸K交易者 (Price Action) 設計的突破回踩指標。與傳統指標不同，它採用了嚴格的「新價格規則」與「僅看實體」邏輯，能有效過濾假突破並識別趨勢反轉。
**核心邏輯與功能：**
1. **經典水平 (僅看實體 Body Only)：**
* 阻力位：由「綠K」接「紅K」形成。
* 支撐位：由「紅K」接「綠K」形成。
* **重點：** 系統僅使用 K棒實體 (收盤/開盤) 來定義水平，完全忽略影線 (Wicks)，以避免影線造成的假訊號。
2. **新價格規則 (嚴格序列)：**
* 採用「最新優先」原則。一旦當前訊號確認，之前所有的舊結構水平立即作廢。
* 系統只會尋找在「最新訊號之後」形成的新水平，確保交易邏輯符合當下的市場結構。
3. **突破回踩確認：**
* 偵測到實體突破後，系統會進入監控模式。
* 只有當價格回踩該水平並成功「拒絕」(收盤守住) 時，才會發出訊號。
4. **過濾重複訊號 (只看反轉)：**
* **設定選項：** 您可以勾選「過濾重複方向訊號」。
* 勾選後，若當前是多頭，系統會隱藏後續的多頭訊號，直到出現空頭訊號為止 (呈現：多 -> 空 -> 多)，讓圖表更乾淨。
5. **多週期 (MTF) 監控：**
* 可同時監控 5 個不同時間級別的突破狀態。
**使用說明：**
* **綠色虛線**：多頭確認 (5 多)。
* **紅色虛線**：空頭確認 (5 空)。
VaRz BTC/Gold Risk MeterVaRz Risk Meter (BTC vs Risk-On & Gold Safe-Haven Proxy)
The VaRz Risk Meter is a macro sentiment oscillator designed to measure Bitcoin’s relative strength and directional bias using key risk-appetite and safe-haven flows.
Indicator Components
VIX → Market fear & volatility benchmark
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) → Primary risk-on proxy (growth/tech capital flow)
Gold (XAUUSD) → Safe-haven strength alternative to USD index
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) → Used only for normalization reference, not bias calculation
Core Logic
All assets are normalized on a 0–100 scale using a 100-period rolling window to create a balanced comparison across markets.
The Bitcoin Macro Bias Histogram is calculated as:
NASDAQ strength − VIX fear − Gold safe-haven strength
This produces a macro directional regime for Bitcoin:
Market Regimes Interpretation
Indicator State Meaning for BTC
NASDAQ high + VIX low + Gold weak Risk-On environment → Bullish for Bitcoin
Gold strong + VIX rising + NASDAQ weak Risk-Off / flight to safety → Bearish pressure on BTC
All assets near 50 with no trend Neutral / Sideways → Macro indecision
How to Use
This is not a direct entry signal, but a macro bias filter
Best combined with:
Market Structure, Liquidity zones, Orderflow, Volume analysis, and Elliott Wave context
Bias becomes more reliable on higher timeframes (1W, 1M) but works on any chart
Key Insight
Bitcoin behaves as a hybrid risk asset. This indicator helps track when capital is:
Rotating into risk markets (favorable for BTC)
or
Seeking protection in gold and volatility hedges (unfavorable for BTC)
The histogram visually maps these shifts to give traders a clear macro regime awareness in one window.
MTG v2MTG v2 is a complete trend-following trading system that combines:
PSAR (Parabolic SAR) - Trend direction
200 EMA - Trend direction
EMAs (5, 13, 50) - Momentum confirmation
AMA (Adaptive Moving Average) - Intelligent exits
Smart Filters - Volume, ATR, choppy market detection
Purpose: Catch strong trends early and ride them for maximum profit.
CSA Infinity BridgeCSA Infinity Bridge - Major Update: Full Transparency + Stricter Consensus
Update Notes (December 29, 2025):
- Big improvements based on real-user feedback!
- This version eliminates the confusion that sometimes occurred when the dashboard showed near-unanimous agreement (like 13/14) but one indicator was silently disagreeing.
Key Changes:
- All 14 indicators are now fully visible in the dashboard. Added a dedicated "TTM" column for the standalone TTM Wave (previously hidden). No more guessing which indicator is the holdout—you’ll see every single Bull/Bear vote clearly.
- Stricter consensus thresholds for higher-conviction signals:
- Strong Bullish/Bearish now requires 12+ out of 14 (previously 11+)
- Trending ↑/↓ requires 9+ out of 14 (previously 8+)
- This reduces whipsaws and makes LONG/SHORT signals more reliable, especially for novice traders.
Keeps the popular OBV replacement (volume confirmation instead of basic candle color).
- Perfect for anyone who wants a clean, trustworthy consensus dashboard without hidden surprises. Ideal for futures, stocks, crypto—any market with volume.
- Test it, compare it to the previous version, and let me know what you think!
Breakout SignalShow big bars closing on the high or low
This script allows you to find highlighted bars (bullish green and bearish red ) for bars that close with a particular Internal Bar Strength and ATR. I set the default at showing bars with an ATR > ATR10 and the IBS can be effected to show if the bar closes at its high or low.
I also put a EMA filter here. i usually set this quite low to about 7 but can be changed depending on your preference.
