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Aethix Cipher Pro2Aethix Cipher Pro: AI-Enhanced Crypto Signal Indicator grok Ai made signal created for aethix users. Unlock the future of crypto trading with Aethix Cipher Pro—a powerhouse indicator inspired by Market Cipher A, turbocharged for Aethix.io users! Built on WaveTrend Oscillator, 8-EMA Ribbon, RSI+MFI, and custom enhancements like Grok AI confidence levels (70-100%), on-chain whale volume thresholds, and fun meme alerts ("To the moon! 🌕"). Key Features: WaveTrend Signals: Spot overbought/oversold with levels at ±53/60/100—crosses trigger red diamonds, blood diamonds, yellow X's for high-prob buy/sell entries. Neon Teal EMA Ribbon: Dynamic 5-34 EMA gradient (bullish teal/bearish red) for trend direction—crossovers plot green/red circles, blue triangles. RSI+MFI Fusion: Overbought (70+)/oversold (30-) with long snippets for sentiment edges.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh axi13
High Volume SessionES High Volume Session — Indicador multi-sesión con niveles persistentes Este indicador detecta la vela con mayor volumen dentro de sesiones definidas por el usuario y traza sus niveles clave: - High, Low y Mid (50%) de la vela con mayor volumen. - Compatible con hasta 4 sesiones independientes, cada una con su propio rango horario, color y timeframe de cálculo. - Los niveles se mantienen visibles hasta que inicia la siguiente sesión, permitiendo una lectura clara y continua. - El cálculo se realiza en el timeframe que elijas, independientemente del gráfico actual. - Estructura optimizada con arrays y lógica modular para máxima eficiencia y escalabilidad. Ideal para traders que analizan apertura de mercado, bloques institucionales, o zonas de interés basadas en volumen. EN High Volume Session — Multi-session indicator with persistent levels This indicator identifies the highest-volume candle within user-defined sessions and plots its key levels: - High, Low, and Midpoint (50%) of the highest-volume candle - Supports up to 4 independent sessions, each with customizable time range, color, and calculation timeframe - Levels remain visible until the next session begins, ensuring clear and continuous visual tracking - Calculations are performed on the selected timeframe, independent of the chart’s resolution - Optimized with arrays and modular logic for maximum efficiency and scalability Perfect for traders analyzing market opens, institutional blocks, or volume-based zones of interest.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh rngpmx
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster Plain-English overview This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism. What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it • Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve. • Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon. • Core strengths in quant finance . – Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?” – Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic. – Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess. • Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.” How this indicator builds its probability cone 1) Seasonal pattern discovery The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives: • A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information. • A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day. It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day. 2) Choice of randomness engine You can pick how the future shocks are generated: • Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock. • Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution. Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands. 3) Volatility scaling to current conditions Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa. 4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles: • 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone). • 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone). • 50th → the median or “expected path.” These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion. 5) A historical overlay (optional) Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward. Inputs you control and how to think about them Monte Carlo Simulation • Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close. • Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing. • Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon. • Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty. • Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice). • Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history. • Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context. Plotting & UI • Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes. • Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone. • Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context. • Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts. What appears on your chart • A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band. • A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone. • An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent. • Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars. How to use it in trading 1) Position sizing and stop logic The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances. • Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play. • Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable. • If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality. 2) Entry timing with seasonal bias When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system. 3) Target selection Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive. 4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs” Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through. 5) Options and vol tactics • When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate. • When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics. Reading the probability cone like a pro • Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite. • Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained. • Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone. • Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst. Methodological notes (what the code actually does) • Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price. • Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives. • Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable. • Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation. • Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better. • Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones. • Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive. • Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history. Strengths and limitations • Strengths : – Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing. – Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit. – Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic. • Limitations : – Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events. – The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision. – The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts. – Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories. Tuning guide • Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets. • Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes. • Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong. • Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence. Workflow examples • Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band. • Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated. • Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range. Good habits • Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality. • Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt. • Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects. Summary The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh BackQuant
2
Stock Profit Calculator — Live Mode ## Overview This Pine Script indicator calculates, in real time, the financial impact of a stock trade, including purchase/sale commissions, capital gains tax (CGT), and return on investment (ROI). It displays a compact table with key values and also calculates the breakeven price to see at what level the net P/L returns to zero. --- ## Inputs and customization - **Number of shares:** `shares` defines the purchased quantity. - **Purchase price:** `buyPrice` is the unit cost; the total purchase is calculated from this. - **Live selling price:** `sellPrice = close` uses the last bar’s price for live valuation. - **Fixed or percentage commissions:** `useFixedComm` selects the model. - **Fixed:** `buyCommFixed`, `sellCommFixed`. - **Percentage:** `buyCommPct`, `sellCommPct` (applied to notional value). - **CGT rate:** `cgtRate` is the percentage rate, applied only in case of profit. - **Table position:** `tablePosition` with predefined options. - **Visual style:** `colTxt`, `colPos`, `colNeg`, `colBg`, `colHdr`, `colFrame` for text color, positive/negative P/L, background, header, and borders. > Tip: if your broker uses minimum fees or composite fees, turn on “Use fixed commissions?” and enter the two fixed fees; otherwise, use the percentage model. --- ## Calculation logic #### Purchase costs - **Total purchase:** \ - **Purchase commission:** \ - **Net entry cost:** \ #### Sale revenues - **Total sale (with live price):** \ - **Sale commission:** \ - **Net exit revenue:** \ #### P/L and taxes - **Gross P/L:** \ - **CGT (only on positive P/L):** \ - **Net P/L:** \ #### ROI - **Percentage ROI on invested capital:** \ #### Breakeven - **Gross breakeven** shown in the table: the unit price that makes the net P/L exactly zero, including purchase cost and an estimate of the sale commission. \ In the script, if commissions are fixed it adds the fixed sale fee; if percentage-based, the sale component is not included in this row (conservative approximation). - **Breakeven with tax** (calculated but not shown): \ Useful when you want the post-CGT result to be exactly zero. Not displayed in the table but ready for use. > Note: CGT applies only on positive profits; near breakeven, the tax effect is null or only kicks in beyond a threshold. That’s why the script distinguishes between the “gross” and “with tax” versions. --- ## On-screen table - **Displayed rows:** - **Purchase:** total net entry cost (with commissions). - **Sale:** total net exit revenue (with commissions). - **Gross P/L:** difference between netSell and netBuy. - **CGT:** estimated tax only if there’s a gain. - **Net P/L:** P/L after taxes. - **ROI (%):** percentage return on netBuy. - **Breakeven:** gross unit breakeven price. - **Conditional colors:** - **P/L and ROI:** green for ≥ 0, red for < 0. - **Headers and cells:** customizable via the color inputs. - **Efficient refresh:** the table updates only on the last bar via `barstate.islast` to avoid unnecessary redraws. --- ## Behavior and performance - **Overlay:** displayed on the price chart. - **Persistent variable:** table is created once with `var table`. - **Live price:** `sellPrice` follows the current `close`, making P/L, ROI, and breakeven dynamic. --- ## Limitations and suggestions - **Commission model:** when using percentage commissions, the breakeven in the table doesn’t add the sale percentage fee in the “breakevenPrice” formula. For more precision, you could solve the equation including the percentage fee on exit. - **Breakeven with tax:** `breakevenWithTax` is a linear estimate; near zero profit, tax may be null. You might choose to display it instead of, or alongside, the gross breakeven. - **Precision and formatting:** values are shown with `format.mintick`. If the symbol has very small ticks, consider a custom format for better readability. - **Edge cases:** ROI is undefined if `netBuy = 0` (unlikely in practice but good to note). > Pro tip: if you want to show the breakeven with tax, add a “Breakeven (post-CGT)” row printing `breakevenWithTax`. If you prefer a single row, replace the shown value with the post-CGT one. ---
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh Roger_Kint
EMA + SMA - R.AR.A. Trader - Multi-MA Suite (EMA & SMA) 1. Overview Welcome, students of R.A. Trader! This indicator is a powerful and versatile tool designed specifically to support the trading methodologies taught by Rudá Alves. The R.A. Trader Multi-MA Suite combines two fully customizable groups of moving averages into a single, clean indicator. Its purpose is to eliminate chart clutter and provide a clear, at-a-glance view of market trends, momentum, and dynamic levels of support and resistance across multiple timeframes. By integrating key short-term and long-term moving averages, this tool will help you apply the R.A. Trader analytical framework with greater efficiency and precision. 2. Core Features Dual Moving Average Groups: Configure two independent sets of moving averages, perfect for separating short-term (EMA) and long-term (SMA) analysis. Four MAs Per Group: Each group contains four fully customizable moving averages. Multiple MA Types: Choose between several types of moving averages for each group (SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, RMA). Toggle Visibility: Easily show or hide each group with a single click in the settings panel. Custom Styling: Key moving averages are styled for instant recognition, including thicker lines for longer periods and a special dotted line for the 250-period SMA. Clean and Efficient: The code is lightweight and optimized to run smoothly on the TradingView platform. Group 1 (Default: EMAs) This group is pre-configured for shorter-term Exponential Moving Averages but is fully customizable. Setting Label Description MA Type - EMA Select the type of moving average for this entire group (e.g., EMA, SMA). EMA 5 Sets the period for the first moving average. EMA 10 Sets the period for the second moving average. EMA 20 Sets the period for the third moving average. EMA 400 Sets the period for the fourth moving average. Show EMA Group A checkbox to show or hide all MAs in this group. Exportar para as Planilhas Group 2 (Default: SMAs) This group is pre-configured for longer-term Simple Moving Averages, often used to identify major trends. Setting Label Description MA Type - SMA Select the type of moving average for this entire group. SMA 50 Sets the period for the first moving average. SMA 100 Sets the period for the second moving average. SMA 200 Sets the period for the third moving average. SMA 250 Sets the period for the fourth moving average (styled as a dotted line). Show SMA Group A checkbox to show or hide all MAs in this group.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh tulyodetarso
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952. Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather." The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients. Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance. The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios. The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification. Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting. The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing. The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years. The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions. Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets. In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors. The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts. Understanding the Four Economic Seasons The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks. This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously. Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework. The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities. The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility. The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits. The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns. Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001). Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios. During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance. More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time. The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly. However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money." Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies. To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes. For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error. At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges. The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management. For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations. The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance. Understanding the Indicator's Functionality The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software. The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets. DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS Portfolio Configuration Module The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period. The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs. Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures. The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures. Visual Display System The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table. Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit. Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention. Advanced Label System The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol. "Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail. "Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required. Professional Color Themes Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts. "Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations. Real-Time Portfolio Tracking The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift. Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors. Performance Analytics Suite The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance. Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality. Data Quality Monitoring Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations. When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions. Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns. Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s. Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times. Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management. Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities. Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities. ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually. Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees. Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually. For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000. Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth. Alternative Implementations and Customizations While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities. Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies. Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts. Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management. Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error. Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence. The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth. Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance. The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation. For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons. As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds. STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance. Initial Setup Process Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart. Portfolio Configuration Settings Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision. Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking. Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection. Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading. Display Configuration Options Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users. Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions. Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities. Advanced Label Customization Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods. Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF. Appearance Customization Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making. Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme. Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility. Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components. When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels. If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization. COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster. Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates. Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster. BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research. Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations. Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research. ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187. Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39. Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127. Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53. Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46. BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292. Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press. Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91. Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43. PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons. Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427. Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427. ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press. Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education. RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House. Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House. Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12. CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59. Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press. Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar. PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky. Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes. Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh EdgeTools
BitLogic - Kalman CompositeBitLogic Kalman Composite (BL-KC) What it is A momentum/condition oscillator that filters price with a multi-stage Kalman and blends two normalized branches into one composite line with a compact score histogram. Built for cleaner flips and fewer whipsaws. How it works Kalman filter (5-stage) on your chosen price source; selectable output (Stage1/Stage5/Average). Branch A : RSI on Kalman price → normalized to ~ . Branch B (selectable) : - Residual Z: z-score of the Kalman residual (observation − predicted state), squashed for stability (distinct vs classic KSO) - Williams %R on Kalman price (normalized). Gain-weighted blend : the composite weights Branch B by the average Kalman gain (when the filter trusts new info more, residual matters more). Zero-line hysteresis : small band around 0 to reduce flip noise. Score (columns) : quadrant logic → 1, 0.5, −0.5, −1 for quick read of bias + slope. No repainting : updates/alerts on bar close. Inputs you’ll care about Q/R (process/measurement noise) : responsiveness vs smoothness. Blend : base weight + gain weighting. Residual Z : lookback & squash scale (controls sensitivity). Hysteresis band and optional EMA smoothing of the composite. Reading it Line (ci) : above 0 → bullish zone; below 0 → bearish zone. Columns (KC_score) : show strength/weakness inside each zone (green ≥ 0, orange < 0). Alerts : bullish/bearish flip fire on close when the composite crosses the band edges. Tips For faster markets: raise Q, lower smoothing, keep a small hysteresis (e.g., 0.03–0.05). For trend following: use Stage5/Average Kalman output and a slightly wider band (0.06–0.10). Want “classic” feel? Switch Branch B to Williams %R. Credits Inspired by the community idea behind the Kalman Synergy Oscillator (Kalman + RSI + %R). This is an independent, from-scratch implementation with a residual z-score branch and gain-weighted blending for distinct behavior. Disclaimer For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh BitLogic_X
Advanced VWAP CalendarThe Advanced VWAP Calendar is a designed to plot Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) lines anchored to user-defined and preset time periods, including weekly, monthly, quarterly, and custom anchors. As of August 15, 2025, this indicator provides traders with a robust tool for analyzing price trends relative to volume-weighted averages, with clear labeling and extensive customization options. Below is a summary of its key features and functionality, with technical details and code references updated to focus on user-facing behavior and presentation, while preserving all other aspects of the original summary. Key Features Multiple Time Period VWAPs: Weekly VWAPs: Supports up to five VWAPs for a user-selected month and year, starting at midnight each Monday (e.g., W1 Aug 2025, W2 Aug 2025). Enabled via a single toggle, with anchors automatically set to the first Monday of the chosen month. Monthly VWAPs: Plots VWAPs for all 12 months of a selected year (e.g., Jan 2025, Feb 2025) or a single user-specified month/year. Labels use month abbreviations (e.g., "Aug 2025"). Quarterly VWAPs: Covers four quarters of a selected year (e.g., Q1 2025, Q2 2025), with options to enable all quarters or individual ones (Q1–Q4). Legacy VWAPs: Provides monthly and quarterly VWAPs for a user-selected legacy year (e.g., 2024), labeled with a "Legacy" prefix (e.g., "Legacy Jan 2024," "Legacy Q1 2024"), with similar enablement options. Custom VWAPs: Includes 10 fully customizable VWAPs, each with user-defined anchor times, labels (e.g., "Q1 2025"), colors, line widths (1–5), text colors, bubble styles, text sizes (8–40), and background options. Clear and Dynamic Labeling: Labels appear to the right of the chart, showing the VWAP value (e.g., "Q1 2025 123.45"). Weekly labels follow a "W# Month Year" format (e.g., "W1 Aug 2025"). Monthly labels use abbreviated months (e.g., "Aug 2025"), while quarterly labels use "Q# Year" (e.g., "Q3 2025"). Legacy labels include a "Legacy" prefix (e.g., "Legacy Q1 2024"). Labels support customizable text sizes (tiny to huge) and can be displayed with or without a background, with optional bubble styles. Flexible Customization: Each VWAP can be enabled or disabled independently, with user inputs for anchor times, labels, and visual properties. Colors are predefined for weekly (red, orange, blue, green, purple), monthly (varied), quarterly (red, blue, green, yellow), and legacy VWAPs, but custom VWAPs allow any color selection. Line widths and text sizes are adjustable, ensuring visual clarity and chart readability. This indicator was a dual effort, code was heavily contributed in effort by AzDxB, major credit and THANKS goes to him www.tradingview.com
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh fragilety
Multiple Session Pre-market High/LowThis indicator marks each day’s pre-market range and projects it into the opening move so you can see how price reacts after the bell. It tracks the **pre-market high/low** within a user-defined window (default **04:00–09:29 ET**) and, at **09:30 ET**, draws two solid horizontal lines from **09:30 to 11:00 ET** at those levels. For additional context, you can optionally show matching **dotted lines** across the pre-market window itself. Everything is anchored to **America/New\_York** time (DST-safe), and colors/widths for both the RTH and pre-market lines are fully customizable. It’s built for **back testing and review**: levels are finalized at 09:30 and **do not repaint**, so what you see historically is what you would have had live. Use it to study opening drive behavior, VWAP/OR confluence, gap fills, and rejection/acceptance around the pre-market extremes. Works on any intraday timeframe; for stocks, enable **Extended Hours** so the 04:00–09:29 bars are available (futures usually include them by default). Adjust the pre-market start/end inputs to match your playbook (e.g., 07:00–09:29) and evaluate your strategies consistently across months of data.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh bigislandconstruction
Heikin Ashi Doji with High VolumeThis indicator detects Heikin Ashi Doji candles that occur on unusually high volume. A bar is marked when: The Heikin Ashi candle body is small relative to the total range (below a configurable percentage threshold). The volume is greater than a moving average of volume multiplied by a configurable factor. Features: Adjustable Doji body threshold (% of total range). Adjustable volume MA length and volume multiplier. Displays a gray circle below bars that meet both conditions. Built-in alert condition so you can receive notifications when a high-volume Doji appears. Usage Ideas: High-volume Doji candles can indicate market indecision at key turning points. Combined with other analysis (e.g., support/resistance, VWAP, or trend tools), these signals can help identify potential reversals or pauses in price movement. Note: This tool uses Heikin Ashi calculations internally regardless of your chart’s candle type. The plotted dots correspond to the Heikin Ashi candle conditions, not the raw chart candles.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh nwfjf6m8
Coin Jin Multi SMA+ BB+ SMA forecast Ver 2.0Coin Jin Multi SMA + BB + SMA Forecast 2.0 개요 여러 개의 단순이동평균(SMA: 5/20/60/112/224/448/896 + 사용자 정의 X1/X2), 볼린저 밴드(BB), 그리고 접선 기반 곡선 예측선을 한 번에 표시합니다. 예측선은 선형회귀 기울기와 그 변화율(가속도)을 EMA로 스무딩해 곡선 외삽으로 앞으로 그려지며, 어떤 줌에서도 깔끔하게 보이도록 점선(dotted) 스타일을 강제할 수 있습니다. 스택 마커(정배열/역배열) 안내 조건: 이동평균이 정배열(5>20>60>112>224>448>(896)) 또는 역배열(5<20<60<112<224<448<(896))로 새로 전환되는 순간 삼각형 마커가 생성됩니다. 896일선 포함(with 896): SOLID 마커로 표시, Bull = 초록색, Bear = 빨간색. 896일선 미포함(no 896): HOLLOW(윤곽) 마커로 표시, 시선을 덜 끌도록 투명도 70 적용(Bull = 연두, Bear = 빨강 동일색). 방향: Bull = ▼(위, abovebar) / Bear = ▲(아래, belowbar) 로 배치됩니다. 주요 기능 SMA 7종 기본 + 사용자 정의 SMA 2개(X1/X2) 추가(기본 꺼짐, 길이/색/두께/타입 자유). BB: 길이/배수/선두께/밴드 채움(기본 90% 투명) 지원. 예측선: Forward bars(1–100, 기본 30), 기울기 산출 길이, 스무딩 강도, 세그먼트 개수, 점/대시 스타일 선택 및 도트 강제. 스택(정/역배열) 전환 마커: with 896=SOLID, no 896=HOLLOW(투명도 70). 처음 사용하는 분들을 위한 팁 (중요) 가격 스케일을 ‘우측’으로 고정하세요. 방법 ① 차트 우측 축을 사용(기본). 방법 ② 지표 레전드의 ‘⋯’ 메뉴 → Move to → Right scale. 예측선이 본선과 어긋나 보이면 스케일이 좌측/양측으로 되어 있거나 자동 합침된 경우이니 Right scale로 맞춰주세요. 입력 요약 MA Source, 각 SMA on/off·길이·색·두께·타입 BB length/mult/width/fill/opacity(기본 90) Forecast bars ahead(1–100), slope lookback, smoothing, segments, style/opacity, 적용 대상 선택(SMA별) 주의/면책 예측선은 가격 예언 도구가 아니라 시각적 외삽 보조지표입니다. 단독 매매 판단에 사용하지 마세요. 공개 스크린샷은 본 지표만 보이도록 깔끔하게 캡처해 주세요(다른 지표/드로잉 혼합 금지). 변경사항(v2.0) 곡선 예측선 안정화 및 도트 강제 개선. 스택 마커 no 896 상태 HOLLOW 투명도 70 적용(가독성 향상). 사용자 정의 SMA X1/X2 추가(기본 OFF). Coin Jin Multi SMA + BB + SMA Forecast 2.0 (English) Overview This indicator plots multiple Simple Moving Averages (SMA: 5/20/60/112/224/448/896 + two user-defined X1/X2), Bollinger Bands, and a tangent-based curved forecast in one overlay. The forecast extrapolates forward using the linear-regression slope and its rate of change (acceleration) smoothed by EMA, and you can force a dotted look so it stays clean at any zoom level. Stack Markers (Bullish/Bearish alignment) Markers appear only when a full bullish stack (5>20>60>112>224>448>(896)) or bearish stack (5<20<60<112<224<448<(896)) is newly formed. With 896 included: shown as SOLID triangles — Bull = green, Bear = red. Without 896: shown as HOLLOW (outline) with 70 transparency to reduce visual weight — Bull = lime, Bear = red (same hue). Orientation: Bull = ▼ abovebar, Bear = ▲ belowbar. Features 7 standard SMAs + two custom SMAs (X1/X2) (default OFF; fully configurable length/color/width/style). BB with length/multiplier/width/fill (default fill opacity 90%). Forecast controls: forward bars (1–100, default 30), slope window, smoothing, segment count, style/opacity, force dotted option. Stack markers: with 896 = SOLID, without 896 = HOLLOW (70 transparency). First-time setup (Important) Pin the indicator to the Right price scale. Option A: Use the right price axis. Option B: Indicator legend “⋯” → Move to → Right scale. If the forecast appears detached from the MA, your series is likely on the left/both scales; switch to Right scale. Inputs MA source; per-SMA on/off, length, color, width, style BB length/multiplier/width/fill/opacity (default 90) Forecast bars ahead (1–100), slope lookback, smoothing, segments, style/opacity, per-SMA apply switches Disclaimer The forecast is a visual extrapolation, not a price prediction. Do not use it alone to make trading decisions. For publication, please use a clean screenshot that shows only this indicator (no mixed overlays). What’s new in v2.0 More robust curved forecast with improved “force dotted” rendering. HOLLOW (no 896) markers now use 70 transparency for better readability. Added two user-defined SMAs (X1/X2), OFF by default.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh myjustapex
PLAIN VAMSThe PLAIN VAMS (Volatility-Adjusted Momentum Score) is a visual tool designed to help traders identify momentum shifts relative to prevailing volatility conditions. Unlike traditional momentum indicators, VAMS adapts dynamically to price fluctuations by comparing current price levels to volatility-based boundaries derived from customizable moving averages. Key Features: - Volatility-Adjusted Zones: Prices are evaluated against upper and lower dynamic boundaries, signaling potential overbought or oversold momentum conditions. Two Modes: - PLAIN VAMS (default): Uses a longer lookback period for smoother, trend-following behavior. - RAW VAMS: A shorter lookback for high-sensitivity, intraday or scalping setups. Customizable Moving Averages: Choose from multiple MA types (EMA, SMA, WMA, etc.) to match your strategy preferences. Visual Clarity: - Color-coded candles for quick signal recognition. - Optional background shading for immediate context. - Boundary lines to define momentum thresholds. How It Works: The script calculates a moving average (based on user-selected type and period) and applies an upper and lower multiplier to create dynamic price boundaries. When price closes beyond these bands, it suggests a strong directional momentum move. The indicator is fully customizable to adapt to your trading style and timeframe. Use Cases: - Identify potential breakouts or trend continuations. - Filter entries/exits based on momentum strength. - Combine with other tools for confirmation in your strategy. This indicator does not repaint or use future-looking data. It’s designed for discretionary and systematic traders looking for an adaptive way to visualize momentum relative to market volatility.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh La_Von
Live NY Session Movement (points)//@version=5 indicator("Live NY Session Movement (points)", overlay=true) // --- Inputs --- nySession = input.session("0830-1700", "NY Session (local NY time)") nyTimezone = input.string("America/New_York", "Session Timezone") showShade = input.bool(true, "Shade NY Session") // --- In-session detection (per-bar) --- inNy = not na(time(timeframe.period, nySession, nyTimezone)) // --- Track session H/L and live movement --- var float sessHigh = na var float sessLow = na var label liveLab = na var bool wasIn = false // session edge flags justStarted = inNy and not wasIn justEnded = not inNy and wasIn wasIn := inNy if justStarted sessHigh := high sessLow := low if inNy sessHigh := na(sessHigh) ? high : math.max(sessHigh, high) sessLow := na(sessLow) ? low : math.min(sessLow, low) movePts = sessHigh - sessLow // create once, then update in place each bar if na(liveLab) liveLab := label.new(bar_index, high, "NY Move: " + str.tostring(movePts, format.mintick), style=label.style_label_down, textcolor=color.white, color=color.new(color.blue, 0), size=size.small) label.set_x(liveLab, bar_index) label.set_y(liveLab, high) label.set_text(liveLab, "NY Move: " + str.tostring(movePts, format.mintick)) else // clean up at end of session sessHigh := na sessLow := na if not na(liveLab) label.delete(liveLab) liveLab := na // Optional: shade the session so you can see it clearly bgcolor(showShade and inNy ? color.new(color.blue, 92) : na)
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh DM_Empires
EMA with Adaptive Straight SegmentsThis script transforms a traditional Exponential Moving Average (EMA) into a series of straight-line segments, making trend direction clearer and easier to follow. Instead of plotting every curve of the EMA, it connects key points with angled steps, giving a trend-line style look that removes noise and highlights slope. What makes this version special is its adaptive segmentation: Segment length automatically adjusts based on market volatility (ATR%). In low volatility, segments stretch longer to smooth things out. In high volatility, segments shorten to stay responsive to price swings. Features: Clean, step-style EMA representation. Adjustable minimum/maximum segment lengths. Customisable number of historical segments. Optional display of the original EMA for comparison. HUD label showing current ATR%, segment length, and segment count. This tool is especially useful if, like me, you prefer structural analysis over noisy indicators. It keeps your chart tidy while still reflecting the true slope of the EMA. I find 50 and 200 are the most useful.
Penunjuk Pine Script®
oleh TregTrader