ECG chart - mauricioofsousaMGO Primary – Matriz Gráficos ON
The Blockchain of Trading applied to price behavior
The MGO Primary is the foundation of Matriz Gráficos ON — an advanced graphical methodology that transforms market movement into a logical, predictable, and objective sequence, inspired by blockchain architecture and periodic oscillatory phenomena.
This indicator replaces emotional candlestick reading with a mathematical interpretation of price blocks, cycles, and frequency. Its mission is to eliminate noise, anticipate reversals, and clearly show where capital is entering or exiting the market.
What MGO Primary detects:
Oscillatory phenomena that reveal the true behavior of orders in the book:
RPA – Breakout of Bullish Pivot
RPB – Breakout of Bearish Pivot
RBA – Sharp Bullish Breakout
RBB – Sharp Bearish Breakout
Rhythmic patterns that repeat in medium timeframes (especially on 12H and 4H)
Wave and block frequency, highlighting critical entry and exit zones
Validation through Primary and Secondary RSI, measuring the real strength behind movements
Who is this indicator for:
Traders seeking statistical clarity and visual logic
Operators who want to escape the subjectivity of candlesticks
Anyone who values technical precision with operational discipline
Recommended use:
Ideal timeframes: 12H (high precision) and 4H (moderate intensity)
Recommended assets: indices (e.g., NASDAQ), liquid stocks, and futures
Combine with: structured risk management and macro context analysis
Real-world performance:
The MGO12H achieved a 92% accuracy rate in 2025 on the NASDAQ, outperforming the average performance of major global quantitative strategies, with a net score of over 6,200 points for the year.
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Nifty50 Swing Trading Super Indicator# 🚀 Nifty50 Swing Trading Super Indicator - Complete Guide
**Created by:** Gaurav
**Date:** August 8, 2025
**Version:** 1.0 - Optimized for Indian Markets
---
## 📋 Table of Contents
1. (#quick-start-guide)
2. (#indicator-overview)
3. (#installation-instructions)
4. (#parameter-settings)
5. (#signal-interpretation)
6. (#trading-strategy)
7. (#risk-management)
8. (#optimization-tips)
9. (#troubleshooting)
---
## 🎯 Quick Start Guide
### What You Get
✅ **2 Complete Pine Script Indicators:**
- `swing_trading_super_indicator.pine` - Universal version for all markets
- `nifty_optimized_super_indicator.pine` - Specifically optimized for Nifty50 & Indian stocks
✅ **Key Features:**
- Multi-component signal confirmation system
- Optimized for daily and 3-hour timeframes
- Built-in risk management with dynamic stops and targets
- Real-time signal strength monitoring
- Gap analysis for Indian market characteristics
### Immediate Setup
1. Copy the Pine Script code from `nifty_optimized_super_indicator.pine`
2. Paste into TradingView Pine Editor
3. Add to chart on daily or 3-hour timeframe
4. Look for 🚀BUY and 🔻SELL signals
5. Use the information table for signal confirmation
---
## 🔍 Indicator Overview
### Core Components Integration
**🎯 Range Filter (35% Weight)**
- Primary trend identification using adaptive volatility filtering
- Optimized sampling period: 21 bars for Indian market volatility
- Enhanced range multiplier: 3.0 to handle market gaps
- Provides trend direction and strength measurement
**⚡ PMAX (30% Weight)**
- Volatility-adjusted trend confirmation using ATR-based calculations
- Dynamic multiplier adjustment based on market volatility
- 14-period ATR with 2.5 multiplier for swing trading sensitivity
- Offers trailing stop functionality
**🏗️ Support/Resistance (20% Weight)**
- Dynamic level identification using pivot point analysis
- Tighter channel width (3%) for precise Indian market levels
- Enhanced strength calculation with historical interaction weighting
- Provides entry/exit timing and breakout signals
**📊 EMA Alignment (15% Weight)**
- Multi-timeframe moving average confirmation
- Key EMAs: 9, 21, 50, 200 (popular in Indian markets)
- Hierarchical alignment scoring for trend strength
- Additional trend validation layer
### Advanced Features
**🌅 Gap Analysis**
- Automatic detection of significant price gaps (>2%)
- Gap strength measurement and impact on signals
- Specific optimization for Indian market overnight gaps
- Visual gap markers on chart
**⏰ Multi-Timeframe Integration**
- Higher timeframe bias from daily/weekly data
- Configurable daily bias weight (default 70%)
- 3-hour confirmation for precise entry timing
- Prevents counter-trend trades against major timeframe
**🛡️ Risk Management**
- Dynamic stop-loss calculation using multiple methods
- Automatic profit target identification
- Position sizing guidance based on signal strength
- Anti-whipsaw logic to prevent false signals
---
## 📥 Installation Instructions
### Step 1: Access TradingView
1. Open TradingView.com
2. Navigate to Pine Editor (bottom panel)
3. Create a new indicator
### Step 2: Copy the Code
**For Nifty50 & Indian Stocks (Recommended):**
```pinescript
// Copy entire content from nifty_optimized_super_indicator.pine
```
**For Universal Use:**
```pinescript
// Copy entire content from swing_trading_super_indicator.pine
```
### Step 3: Configure and Apply
1. Click "Add to Chart"
2. Select daily or 3-hour timeframe
3. Adjust parameters if needed (defaults are optimized)
4. Enable alerts for signal notifications
### Step 4: Verify Installation
- Check that all components are visible
- Confirm information table appears in top-right
- Test with known trending stocks for signal validation
---
## ⚙️ Parameter Settings
### 🎯 Range Filter Settings
```
Sampling Period: 21 (optimized for Indian market volatility)
Range Multiplier: 3.0 (handles overnight gaps effectively)
Source: Close (most reliable for swing trading)
```
### ⚡ PMAX Settings
```
ATR Length: 14 (standard for daily/3H timeframes)
ATR Multiplier: 2.5 (balanced for swing trading sensitivity)
Moving Average Type: EMA (responsive to price changes)
MA Length: 14 (matches ATR period for consistency)
```
### 🏗️ Support/Resistance Settings
```
Pivot Period: 8 (shorter for Indian market dynamics)
Channel Width: 3% (tighter for precise levels)
Minimum Strength: 3 (higher quality levels only)
Maximum Levels: 4 (focus on strongest levels)
Lookback Period: 150 (sufficient historical data)
```
### 🚀 Super Indicator Settings
```
Signal Sensitivity: 0.65 (balanced for swing trading)
Trend Strength Requirement: 0.75 (high quality signals)
Gap Threshold: 2.0% (significant gap detection)
Daily Bias Weight: 0.7 (strong higher timeframe influence)
```
### 🎨 Display Options
```
Show Range Filter: ✅ (trend visualization)
Show PMAX: ✅ (trailing stops)
Show S/R Levels: ✅ (key price levels)
Show Key EMAs: ✅ (trend confirmation)
Show Signals: ✅ (buy/sell alerts)
Show Trend Background: ✅ (visual trend state)
Show Gap Markers: ✅ (gap identification)
```
---
## 📊 Signal Interpretation
### 🚀 BUY Signals
**Requirements for BUY Signal:**
- Price above Range Filter with upward trend
- PMAX showing bullish direction (MA > PMAX line)
- Support/resistance breakout or favorable positioning
- EMA alignment supporting upward movement
- Higher timeframe bias confirmation
- Overall signal strength > 75%
**Signal Strength Indicators:**
- **90-100%:** Extremely strong - Maximum position size
- **80-89%:** Very strong - Large position size
- **75-79%:** Strong - Standard position size
- **65-74%:** Moderate - Reduced position size
- **<65%:** Weak - Wait for better opportunity
### 🔻 SELL Signals
**Requirements for SELL Signal:**
- Price below Range Filter with downward trend
- PMAX showing bearish direction (MA < PMAX line)
- Resistance breakdown or unfavorable positioning
- EMA alignment supporting downward movement
- Higher timeframe bias confirmation
- Overall signal strength > 75%
### ⚖️ NEUTRAL Signals
**Characteristics:**
- Conflicting signals between components
- Low overall signal strength (<65%)
- Range-bound market conditions
- Wait for clearer directional bias
### 📈 Information Table Guide
**Component Status:**
- **BULL/BEAR:** Current signal direction
- **Strength %:** Component contribution strength
- **Status:** Additional context (STRONG/WEAK/ACTIVE/etc.)
**Overall Signal:**
- **🚀 STRONG BUY:** All systems aligned bullish
- **🔻 STRONG SELL:** All systems aligned bearish
- **⚖️ NEUTRAL:** Mixed or weak signals
---
## 💼 Trading Strategy
### Daily Timeframe Strategy
**Setup:**
1. Apply indicator to daily chart of Nifty50 or Indian stocks
2. Wait for 🚀BUY or 🔻SELL signal with >75% strength
3. Confirm higher timeframe bias alignment
4. Check for significant support/resistance levels
**Entry:**
- Enter on signal bar close or next bar open
- Use 3-hour chart for precise entry timing
- Avoid entries during major news events
- Consider gap analysis for overnight positions
**Position Sizing:**
- **>90% Strength:** 3-4% of portfolio
- **80-89% Strength:** 2-3% of portfolio
- **75-79% Strength:** 1-2% of portfolio
- **<75% Strength:** Avoid or minimal size
### 3-Hour Timeframe Strategy
**Setup:**
1. Confirm daily timeframe bias first
2. Apply indicator to 3-hour chart
3. Look for signals aligned with daily trend
4. Use for entry/exit timing optimization
**Entry Refinement:**
- Wait for 3H signal confirmation
- Enter on pullbacks to key levels
- Use tighter stops for better risk/reward
- Monitor intraday support/resistance
### Risk Management Rules
**Stop Loss Placement:**
1. **Primary:** Use indicator's dynamic stop level
2. **Secondary:** Below/above nearest support/resistance
3. **Maximum:** 2-3% of portfolio per trade
4. **Trailing:** Move stops with PMAX line
**Profit Taking:**
1. **Target 1:** First resistance/support level (50% position)
2. **Target 2:** Second resistance/support level (30% position)
3. **Runner:** Trail remaining 20% with PMAX
**Position Management:**
- Review positions at daily close
- Adjust stops based on new signals
- Exit if trend changes to opposite direction
- Reduce size during high volatility periods
---
## 🎯 Optimization Tips
### For Nifty50 Trading
- Use daily timeframe for primary signals
- Monitor sector rotation impact
- Consider index futures for better liquidity
- Watch for RBI policy and global cues impact
### For Individual Stocks
- Verify stock follows Nifty correlation
- Check sector-specific news and events
- Ensure adequate liquidity for position size
- Monitor earnings calendar for volatility
### Market Condition Adaptations
**Trending Markets:**
- Increase position sizes for strong signals
- Use wider stops to avoid whipsaws
- Focus on trend continuation signals
- Reduce counter-trend trading
**Range-Bound Markets:**
- Reduce position sizes
- Use tighter stops and quicker profits
- Focus on support/resistance bounces
- Increase signal strength requirements
**High Volatility Periods:**
- Reduce overall exposure
- Use smaller position sizes
- Increase stop-loss distances
- Wait for clearer signals
### Performance Monitoring
- Track win rate and average profit/loss
- Monitor signal quality over time
- Adjust parameters based on market changes
- Keep trading journal for pattern recognition
---
## 🔧 Troubleshooting
### Common Issues
**Q: Signals appear too frequently**
A: Increase "Trend Strength Requirement" to 0.8-0.9
**Q: Missing obvious trends**
A: Decrease "Signal Sensitivity" to 0.5-0.6
**Q: Too many false signals**
A: Enable "3H Confirmation" and increase strength requirements
**Q: Indicator not loading**
A: Check Pine Script version compatibility (requires v5)
### Parameter Adjustments
**For More Sensitive Signals:**
- Decrease Signal Sensitivity to 0.5-0.6
- Decrease Trend Strength Requirement to 0.6-0.7
- Increase Range Filter multiplier to 3.5-4.0
**For More Conservative Signals:**
- Increase Signal Sensitivity to 0.7-0.8
- Increase Trend Strength Requirement to 0.8-0.9
- Enable all confirmation features
### Performance Issues
- Reduce lookback periods if chart loads slowly
- Disable some visual elements for better performance
- Use on liquid stocks/indices for best results
---
## 📞 Support & Updates
This super indicator combines the best of Range Filter, PMAX, and Support/Resistance analysis specifically optimized for Indian market swing trading. The multi-component approach significantly improves signal quality while the built-in risk management features help protect capital.
**Remember:** No indicator is 100% accurate. Always combine with proper risk management, market analysis, and your trading experience for best results.
**Happy Trading! 🚀**
Binance Funding Rates [vichtoreb]Source: www.binance.com
The funding rate has two components: the interest rate and the average Premium Index.
Binance furnishes the Premium Index data for crypto assets on the TradingView platform. This script uses that data to calculate the funding rate.
Binance updates the Premium Index every 5 seconds.
The average Premium Index (denoted **P\_avg**) is the time-weighted average of all Premium Index data points:
P_avg = wma(Premium Index, n)
where **n** is the averaging length.
At each change time—8:00 PM, 4:00 AM, and 12:00 PM (UTC-4)—Binance sets
P_avg = wma(Premium Index, 5 760)
This is the weighted moving average of the last 8 hours because 5 760 × 5 s = 8 h. Binance then calculates the new funding rate:
Funding Rate = P_avg + clamp(interest rate − P_avg, −0.05 %, 0.05 %)
This value updates only at those change times (8:00 PM, 4:00 AM, and 12:00 PM, UTC-4).
**Indicator precision**
TradingView limits historical requests to 5 000 candles. To match Binance exactly, 5 760 candles are required. As a workaround, the script samples the Premium Index every *resolution* seconds (or minutes), where *resolution* is the indicator’s timeframe input.
If it weren't for this limitation, setting resolution = 5 sec, we would get EXACTLY the same result as the official one
**Interest rate**
On Binance Futures, the interest rate is 0.03 % per day by default (0.01 % per funding interval, as funding occurs every 8 hours). This does not apply to certain contracts, such as ETH/BTC, for which the interest rate is 0 %.
**Estimate line**
If the “show estimate” input is enabled, the indicator plots
wma(Premium Index, n) + clamp(interest rate − P_avg, −0.05 %, 0.05 %)
with **n** equal to the number of bars that have elapsed since the last funding-rate change.
Volume Profile (Simple)Simple Volume Profile (Simple)
Master the Market's Structure with a Clear View of Volume
by mercaderoaurum
The Simple Volume Profile (Simple) indicator removes the guesswork by showing you exactly where the most significant trading activity has occurred. By visualizing the Point of Control (POC) and Value Area (VA) for today and yesterday, you can instantly identify the price levels that matter most, giving you a critical edge in your intraday trading.
This tool is specifically optimized for day trading SPY on a 1-minute chart, but it's fully customizable for any symbol or timeframe.
Key Features
Multi-Day Analysis: Automatically plots the volume profiles for the current and previous trading sessions, allowing you to see how today's market is reacting to yesterday's key levels.
Automatic Key Level Plotting: Instantly see the most important levels from each session:
Point of Control (POC): The single price level with the highest traded volume, acting as a powerful magnet for price.
Value Area High (VAH): The upper boundary of the area where 50% of the volume was traded. It often acts as resistance.
Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the 50% value area, often acting as support.
Extended Levels: The POC, VAH, and VAL from previous sessions are automatically extended into the current day, providing a clear map of potential support and resistance zones.
Customizable Sessions: While optimized for the US stock market, you can define any session time and time zone, making it a versatile tool for forex, crypto, and futures traders.
Core Trading Strategies
The Simple Volume Profile helps you understand market context. Instead of trading blind, you can now make decisions based on where the market has shown the most interest.
1. Identifying Support and Resistance
This is the most direct way to use the indicator. The extended lines from the previous day are your roadmap for the current session.
Previous Day's POC (pPOC): This is the most significant level. Watch for price to react strongly here. It can act as powerful support if approached from above or strong resistance if approached from below.
Previous Day's VAH (pVAH): Expect this level to act as initial resistance. A clean break above pVAH can signal a strong bullish trend.
Previous Day's VAL (pVAL): Expect this level to act as initial support. A firm break below pVAL can indicate a strong bearish trend.
Example Strategy: If SPY opens and rallies up to the previous day's VAH and stalls, this is a high-probability area to look for a short entry, with a stop loss just above the level.
2. The "Open-Drive" Rejection
How the market opens in relation to the previous day's value area is a powerful tell.
Open Above Yesterday's Value Area: If the market opens above the pVAH, it signals strength. The first pullback to test the pVAH is often a key long entry point. The level is expected to flip from resistance to support.
Open Below Yesterday's Value Area: If the market opens below the pVAL, it signals weakness. The first rally to test the pVAL is a potential short entry, as the level is likely to act as new resistance.
3. Fading the Extremes
When price pushes far outside the previous day's value area, it can become overextended.
Reversal at Highs: If price rallies significantly above the pVAH and then starts to lose momentum (e.g., forming bearish divergence on RSI or a topping pattern), it could be an opportunity to short the market, targeting a move back toward the pVAH or pPOC.
Reversal at Lows: Conversely, if price drops far below the pVAL and shows signs of bottoming, it can be a good opportunity to look for a long entry, targeting a reversion back to the value area.
Recommended Settings (SPY Intraday)
These settings are the default and are optimized for scalping or day trading SPY on a 1-minute chart.
Value Area (%): 50%. This creates a tighter, more sensitive value area, perfect for identifying the most critical intraday zones.
Number of Rows: 1000. This high resolution is essential for a low-volatility instrument like SPY, ensuring that the profile is detailed and the levels are precise.
Session Time: 0400-1800 in America/New_York. This captures the full pre-market and core session, which is crucial for understanding the day's complete volume story.
Ready to trade with an edge? Add the Simple Volume Profile (Multi-Day) to your chart now and see the market in a new light!
Position Size 📐 DT/ST (Today's Open)💡 Purpose:
This indicator automatically calculates intraday (DT) and swing trading (ST) position sizes based on your account capital, risk per trade, and stop-loss percentage, using today’s daily open price as the entry price reference.
⚙️ Main Functionalities:
Dynamic Position Sizing
Calculates Full size position based on the maximum risk you allow per trade.
Breaks it down into ¼ Size, ⅓ Size, and ½ Size positions for flexible scaling.
Two Distinct Trading Styles:
DT (Day Trading) – Uses your specified intraday stop-loss % (default: 2%).
ST (Swing Trading) – Uses your specified swing stop-loss % (default: 10%).
Lot Size Rounding
Automatically rounds quantities to a chosen lot size (e.g., 1 for cash equity or futures lot size for derivatives).
Customizable Table Position
Display the table anywhere on your chart: Top Right, Top Left, Bottom Right, or Bottom Left.
Optimized for Dark or Light Themes
Yellow header with black text for visibility.
Blue row labels for strategy type.
Grey background with white text for calculated values.
Live Market Adaptation
All values update in real-time as today’s daily open price changes (on new daily candles).
Works for any symbol, asset class, or time frame.
🧮 Formula:
Position Size (Full) = Max Risk ₹ / (Price × StopLoss%)
¼, ⅓, and ½ Sizes = Scaled from Full size
📌 Ideal For:
Traders who want quick, ready-to-use position sizes right on their chart.
Those who follow fixed risk-per-trade and need fast decision-making without manual calculations.
Liquidation Heatmap Proxy [victhoreb]Author: victhoreb
This script was inspired by the Coinglass indicator: www.coinglass.com
It divides each bar into subbars determined by the intrabar period. For each bar, it considers subbars with a positive OID (open interest delta) (if the user sets "Filter by Signal" to true, it only considers subbars with OID > 0 from a main bar that had a peak in open interest). In these subbars, it considers opened long/short positions based on the intrabar price movement and the dispersion factor (which becomes completely unnecessary if the user is using Intrabar Resolution in ticks; in this case, set the dispersion factor = 0).
After determining the opened long and short positions, it determines, based on the user-selected leverages, the liquidation level for each position. The width of each level is given by syminfo.mintick * scale. The script uses the intrabar OID from the previous step to store an estimate of the number of contracts to be liquidated at each level. This estimate is used to color the levels by order of magnitude.
If there is a subsequent increase in liquidations at a pre-existing level, the script accumulates the estimated number of contracts to be liquidated and repaints the level. A note about a visual limitation of the script is important: in Coinglass' version, when there is a subsequent increase in liquidations at a pre-existing level, Coinglass paints the level a brighter color ONLY from the moment of the increase—however, this script does not do this; it repaints the entire level with the brighter color. Note: While accurate, this script is only a proxy. Use at your own risk.
This script has alerts for when there is liquidation in the long or short direction.
%ATR + ΔClose HighlightScript Overview
This indicator displays on your chart:
Table of the last N bars that passed the ATR-based range filter:
Columns: Bar #, High, Range (High–Low), Low
Summary row: ATR(N), suggested Stop-Loss (SL = X % of ATR), and the current bar’s range as a percentage of ATR
Red badge on the most recent bar showing ΔClose% (the absolute difference between today’s and yesterday’s close, expressed as % of ATR)
Background highlights:
Blue fill under the most recent bar that met the filter
Yellow fill under bars that failed the filter
Hidden plots of ATR, %ATR, and ΔClose% (for use in strategies or alerts)
All table elements, fills, and plots can be toggled off with a single switch so that only the red ΔClose% badge remains visible.
Inputs
Setting Description Default
Length (bars) Lookback period for ATR and range filter (bars) 5
Upper deviation (%) Upper filter threshold (% of average ATR) 150%
Lower deviation (%) Lower filter threshold (% of average ATR) 50%
SL as % of ATR Stop-loss distance (% of ATR) 10%
Label position Table position relative to bar (“above” or “below”) above
Vertical offset (×ATR) Vertical spacing from the bar in ATR units 2.0
Show table & ATR plots Show or hide table, background highlights, and plots true
How It Works
ATR Calculation & Filtering
Computes average True Range over the last N bars.
Marks bars whose daily range falls within the specified upper/lower deviation band.
Table Construction
Gathers up to N most recent bars that passed the filter (or backfills from the most recent pass).
Formats each bar’s High, Low, and Range into fixed-width columns for neat alignment.
Stop-Loss & Percent Metrics
Calculates a recommended SL distance as a percentage of ATR.
Computes today’s bar range and ΔClose (absolute change in close) as % of ATR.
Chart Display
Table: Shows detailed per-bar data and summary metrics.
Background fills: Blue for the latest valid bar, yellow for invalid bars.
Hidden plots: ATR, %ATR, and ΔClose% (useful for backtesting).
Red badge: Always visible on the right side of the last bar, displaying ΔClose%.
Tips
Disable the table & ATR plots to reduce chart clutter—leave only the red ΔClose% badge for a minimalist volatility alert.
Use the hidden ATR fields (plot outputs) in TradingView Strategies or Alerts to automate volatility-based entries/exits.
Adjust the deviation band to capture “normal” intraday moves vs. outsized volatility spikes.
Load this script on any US market chart (stocks, futures, crypto, etc.) to instantly visualize recent volatility structure, set dynamic SL levels, and highlight today’s price change relative to average true range.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
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Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
Map Multiple QQQ Levels to NQ (Custom Labels)maps user-defined price levels from the QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, tracking the NASDAQ-100) to equivalent levels on the NQ (NASDAQ-100 futures) chart, displaying them as colored lines with optional labels. It’s designed to overlay on the NQ chart, helping traders visualize QQQ price levels in terms of NQ values based on the ratio between their prices.
Key Features:
Inputs for QQQ Levels: Users can specify up to four QQQ price levels (default: 300, 310, 320, 330) with a step of 0.1 for precision.
Customizable Appearance: Each level has its own color (default: teal, orange, purple, green) and a shared line width (default: 2).
Time Filters:
Option to display levels only for the current day (show_today_only).
Option to show levels only after 9:30 AM Eastern Time (show_after_open), aligning with market open.
Custom Labels: Each level can have a toggleable label with a customizable template (e.g., "QQQ {qqq} → NQ {mapped}"), showing the QQQ level and its mapped NQ value, formatted to two decimal places.
Dynamic Mapping: Calculates the ratio between NQ and QQQ closing prices to map QQQ levels to NQ equivalents in real-time.
Conditional Display: Levels are plotted only when user-defined conditions (day and time filters) are met, otherwise hidden (na).
Label Placement: Labels are displayed on the last confirmed historical bar, unaffected by time filters, ensuring visibility without cluttering real-time bars.
CAGR 5 & 10 Years, Auto-Detect Timeframe# CAGR 5 & 10 Years, Auto-Detect Timeframe
## Overview
This indicator automatically calculates the **Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)** for 5-year and 10-year periods, adapting intelligently to different asset types and timeframes.
## Key Features
### 🤖 **Smart Market Detection**
- **Automatically detects** if the asset operates 24/7 (crypto, crypto futures) or traditional hours (stocks, forex)
### ⏰ **Multi-Timeframe Support**
**Compatible timeframes**: 1H, 2H, 3H, 4H, 6H, 8H, 12H, 1D, 3D, 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 12M
### 📊 **Visual Display**
- **Green line**: 5-year CAGR percentage
- **Blue line**: 10-year CAGR percentage
- **Zero reference line** for easy interpretation
## Use Cases
- **Long-term performance analysis** across different timeframes
- **Cross-asset comparison** with automatic market type adjustment
- **Investment planning** with standardized annual growth rates
- **Historical perspective** on asset performance
Perfect for investors and analysts who need consistent, comparable growth metrics across different assets and market types.
SuperTrend Strategy with Trend-Based Exits🟩 SuperTrend Strategy with Trend-Based Exits
This is a fully automated trend-following strategy based on the popular SuperTrend indicator, enhanced with a position sizing algorithm tied to stop-loss distance and dynamic entry/exit rules. The strategy is designed for futures trading with an emphasis on sustainable risk, realistic backtesting, and transparent logic.
🧠 Concept and Methodology
The strategy uses the SuperTrend indicator, which is derived from ATR (Average True Range) and is widely used to capture medium- to long-term market trends.
Key features:
✅ Entries are triggered only when the SuperTrend direction changes (trend reversal).
✅ Exits are performed using a dynamic stop-loss placed at the SuperTrend line.
✅ Position size is automatically calculated based on the trader’s fixed dollar risk per trade and the current distance to the stop-loss.
✅ Rounding logic is included to ensure quantity is valid for the exchange’s lot size.
This strategy does not use any take-profit or classic trailing stop — the position is only closed when the trend reverses or the stop is hit by touching the SuperTrend line.
⚙️ Default Parameters
ATR Length: 300
Factor: 7.5
Risk per trade: $90 (3% of the default $3,000 capital)
Lot step: 10
Commission: 0.05%
These default parameters are not universal. They were optimized specifically for STXUSDT swap at 15M timeframe at Bybit and may not produce viable results on other pairs and timeframes.
Users are encouraged to customize the settings according to specific asset’s volatility, timeframe and other characteristics.
❗ These default settings yield meaningful backtesting results on STXUSDT with a reasonable number of trades (105+) over 7-month period. If applied to other assets, results may vary significantly.
📈 Position Sizing Logic
The strategy uses a dynamic position sizing formula:
Pine Script®
position_size = floor((risk_per_trade / stop_loss_distance) / lot_step) * lot_step
This ensures the trader always risks a fixed dollar amount per trade and never exceeds a sustainable equity exposure (recommended 2% or less).
✅ Realism in Backtesting
To ensure realistic and non-misleading backtest results, this strategy includes:
— Slippage and commission settings matching average exchange conditions (commission = 0.05%, slippage 5 ticks).
— Position sizing based on stop-loss distance (not fixed contract quantity).*
— A fixed risk-per-trade model that adheres to responsible capital management principles.
— This is in compliance with TradingView's Script publishing rules and House Rules.
📌 How to Use
Apply the strategy to a clean chart (preferably 15M for STXUSDT by default).
If using another asset, adjust:
- ATR Length
- Factor
- Risk per trade
- Qty step (lot precision for the symbol)
Avoid using with other indicators unless you understand their purpose.
Use the Strategy Tester to evaluate performance and optimize parameters.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Always perform forward testing and assess risk before deploying any strategy on live capital. The strategy is designed for educational and experimental use.
Basic ORB [MOT]Basic ORB – Opening Range Breakout Tool
The Basic ORB is a visual tool designed to assist intraday traders by identifying the opening range from 9:30–9:45 AM ET. It automatically plots the high, low, and midpoint of this range to help traders analyze potential areas of interest.
This script provides a simple and customizable way to frame market structure during the early trading session. It is intended to support various intraday strategies across multiple asset classes including futures, stocks, ETFs, indexes, and crypto.
🔹 Key Features
1. Opening Range Levels
- Automatically plots the High, Low, and Midline of the 9:30–9:45 AM ET session.
- Midline helps visualize the midpoint of the range.
- Customizable colors and line thickness.
2. Previous ORB Ranges
- Option to display previous days’ ORB levels for visual pattern recognition.
- Useful for spotting recurring reactions to prior day levels.
3. Dynamic Price Labels
- Adds price labels to each ORB line for quick reference.
- Fully customizable: adjust text size, background color, label position, and offset.
4. Clean Settings Panel
- Customize all visual elements to match your charting style.
- Control how many previous ORBs to display.
- Toggle features on or off for a simplified interface.
🧠 How to Use
- Best viewed on 1m, 5m, or 15m charts.
- Combine with your existing entry/exit criteria to monitor how price interacts with the opening range.
- Common use cases include breakout confirmation, rejection trades, and support/resistance analysis based on prior ORBs.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries risk, and users should test any tools in a demo environment before live use. Always implement proper risk management.
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator [BackQuant]Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator
1. Big-picture idea
Traditional percentile or stochastic oscillators treat every bar in the look-back window as equally important. That is fine when markets are slow, but if volatility regime changes quickly yesterday’s print should matter more than last month’s. The Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator attempts to fix that blind spot by assigning an adjustable weight to every past price before it is ranked. The result is a percentile score that “breathes” with market tempo much faster to flag new extremes yet still smooth enough to ignore random noise.
2. What the script actually does
Build a weight curve
• You pick a look-back length (default 28 bars).
• You decide whether weights fall Linearly , Exponentially , by Power-law or Logarithmically .
• A decay factor (lower = faster fade) shapes how quickly the oldest price loses influence.
• The array is normalised so all weights still sum to 1.
Rank prices by weighted mass
• Every close in the window is paired with its weight.
• The pairs are sorted from low to high.
• The cumulative weight is walked until it equals your chosen percentile level (default 50 = median).
• That price becomes the Time-Decayed Percentile .
Find dispersion with robust statistics
• Instead of a fragile standard deviation the script measures weighted Median-Absolute-Deviation about the new percentile.
• You multiply that deviation by the Deviation Multiplier slider (default 1.0) to get a non-parametric volatility band.
Build an adaptive channel
• Upper band = percentile + (multiplier × deviation)
• Lower band = percentile – (multiplier × deviation)
Normalise into a 0-100 oscillator
• The current close is mapped inside that band:
0 = lower band, 50 = centre, 100 = upper band.
• If the channel squeezes, tiny moves still travel the full scale; if volatility explodes, it automatically widens.
Optional smoothing
• A second-stage moving average (EMA, SMA, DEMA, TEMA, etc.) tames the jitter.
• Length 22 EMA by default—change it to tune reaction speed.
Threshold logic
• Upper Threshold 70 and Lower Threshold 30 separate standard overbought/oversold states.
• Extreme bands 85 and 15 paint background heat when aggressive fade or breakout trades might trigger.
Divergence engine
• Looks back twenty bars.
• Flags Bullish divergence when price makes a lower low but oscillator refuses to confirm (value < 40).
• Flags Bearish divergence when price prints a higher high but oscillator stalls (value > 60).
3. Component walk-through
• Source – Any price series. Close by default, switch to typical price or custom OHLC4 for futures spreads.
• Look-back Period – How many bars to rank. Short = faster, long = slower.
• Base Percentile Level – 50 shows relative position around the median; set to 25 / 75 for quartile tracking or 90 / 10 for extreme tails.
• Deviation Multiplier – Higher values widen the dynamic channel, lowering whipsaw but delaying signals.
• Decay Settings
– Type decides the curve shape. Exponential (default 1.16) mimics EMA logic.
– Factor < 1 shrinks influence faster; > 1 spreads influence flatter.
– Toggle Enable Time Decay off to compare with classic equal-weight stochastic.
• Smoothing Block – Choose one of seven MA flavours plus length.
• Thresholds – Overbought / Oversold / Extreme levels. Push them out when working on very mean-reverting assets like FX; pull them in for trend monsters like crypto.
• Display toggles – Show or hide threshold lines, extreme filler zones, bar colouring, divergence labels.
• Colours – Bullish green, bearish red, neutral grey. Every gradient step is automatically blended to generate a heat map across the 0-100 range.
4. How to read the chart
• Oscillator creeping above 70 = market auctioning near the top of its adaptive range.
• Fast poke above 85 with no follow-through = exhaustion fade candidate.
• Slow grind that lives above 70 for many bars = valid bullish trend, not a fade.
• Cross back through 50 shows balance has shifted; treat it like a micro trend change.
• Divergence arrows add extra confidence when you already see two-bar reversal candles at range extremes.
• Background shading (semi-transparent red / green) warns of extreme states and throttles your position size.
5. Practical trading playbook
Mean-reversion scalps
1. Wait for oscillator to reach your desired OB/ OS levels
2. Check the slope of the smoothing MA—if it is flattening the squeeze is mature.
3. Look for a one- or two-bar reversal pattern.
4. Enter against the move; first target = midline 50, second target = opposite threshold.
5. Stop loss just beyond the extreme band.
Trend continuation pullbacks
1. Identify a clean directional trend on the price chart.
2. During the trend, TDP will oscillate between midline and extreme of that side.
3. Buy dips when oscillator hits OS levels, and the same for OB levels & shorting
4. Exit when oscillator re-tags the same-side extreme or prints divergence.
Volatility regime filter
• Use the Enable Time Decay switch as a regime test.
• If equal-weight oscillator and decayed oscillator diverge widely, market is entering a new volatility regime—tighten stops and trade smaller.
Divergence confirmation for other indicators
• Pair TDP divergence arrows with MACD histogram or RSI to filter false positives.
• The weighted nature means TDP often spots divergence a bar or two earlier than standard RSI.
Swing breakout strategy
1. During consolidation, band width compresses and oscillator oscillates around 50.
2. Watch for sudden expansion where oscillator blasts through extreme bands and stays pinned.
3. Enter with momentum in breakout direction; trail stop behind upper or lower band as it re-expands.
6. Customising decay mathematics
Linear – Each older bar loses the same fixed amount of influence. Intuitive and stable; good for slow swing charts.
Exponential – Influence halves every “decay factor” steps. Mirrors EMA thinking and is fastest to react.
Power-law – Mid-history bars keep more authority than exponential but oldest data still fades. Handy for commodities where seasonality matters.
Logarithmic – The gentlest curve; weight drops sharply at first then levels off. Mimics how traders remember dramatic moves for weeks but forget ordinary noise quickly.
Turn decay off to verify the tool’s added value; most users never switch back.
7. Alert catalogue
• TD Overbought / TD Oversold – Cross of regular thresholds.
• TD Extreme OB / OS – Breach of danger zones.
• TD Bullish / Bearish Divergence – High-probability reversal watch.
• TD Midline Cross – Momentum shift that often precedes a window where trend-following systems perform.
8. Visual hygiene tips
• If you already plot price on a dark background pick Bullish Color and Bearish Color default; change to pastel tones for light themes.
• Hide threshold lines after you memorise the zones to declutter scalping layouts.
• Overlay mode set to false so the oscillator lives in its own panel; keep height about 30 % of screen for best resolution.
9. Final notes
Time-Decaying Percentile Oscillator marries robust statistical ranking, adaptive dispersion and decay-aware weighting into a simple oscillator. It respects both recent order-flow shocks and historical context, offers granular control over responsiveness and ships with divergence and alert plumbing out of the box. Bolt it onto your price action framework, trend-following system or volatility mean-reversion playbook and see how much sooner it recognises genuine extremes compared to legacy oscillators.
Backtest thoroughly, experiment with decay curves on each asset class and remember: in trading, timing beats timidity but patience beats impulse. May this tool help you find that edge.
COT INDEX
// Users & Producers: Commercial Positions
// Large Specs (Hedge Fonds): Non-commercial Positions
// Retail: Non-reportable Positions
//@version=5
int weeks = input.int(26, "Number of weeks", minval=1)
int upperExtreme = input.int(80, "Upper Threshold in %", minval=50)
int lowerExtreme = input.int(20, "Lower Threshold in %", minval=1)
bool hideCurrentWeek = input(true, "Hide the current week until market close")
bool markExtremes = input(false, "Mark long and short extremes")
bool showSmallSpecs = input(true, "Show small speculators index")
bool showProducers = input(true, "Show producers index")
bool showLargeSpecs = input(true, "Show large speculators index")
indicator("COT INDEX", shorttitle="COT INDEX", format=format.percent, precision=0)
import TradingView/LibraryCOT/2 as cot
// Function to fix some symbols.
var string Root_Symbol = syminfo.root
var string CFTC_Code_fixed = cot.convertRootToCOTCode("Auto")
if Root_Symbol == "HG"
CFTC_Code_fixed := "085692"
else if Root_Symbol == "LBR"
CFTC_Code_fixed := "058644"
// Function to request COT data for Futures only.
dataRequest(metricName, isLong) =>
tickerId = cot.COTTickerid('Legacy', CFTC_Code_fixed, false, metricName, isLong ? "Long" : "Short", "All")
value = request.security(tickerId, "1D", close, ignore_invalid_symbol = true)
if barstate.islastconfirmedhistory and na(value)
runtime.error("Could not find relevant COT data based on the current symbol.")
value
// Function to calculate net long positions.
netLongCommercialPositions() =>
commercialLong = dataRequest("Commercial Positions", true)
commercialShort = dataRequest("Commercial Positions", false)
commercialLong - commercialShort
netLongLargePositions() =>
largeSpecsLong = dataRequest("Noncommercial Positions", true)
largeSpecsShort = dataRequest("Noncommercial Positions", false)
largeSpecsLong - largeSpecsShort
netLongSmallPositions() =>
smallSpecsLong = dataRequest("Nonreportable Positions", true)
smallSpecsShort = dataRequest("Nonreportable Positions", false)
smallSpecsLong - smallSpecsShort
calcIndex(netPos) =>
minNetPos = ta.lowest(netPos, weeks)
maxNetPos = ta.highest(netPos, weeks)
if maxNetPos != minNetPos
100 * (netPos - minNetPos) / (maxNetPos - minNetPos)
else
na
// Calculate the Commercials Position Index.
commercialsIndex = calcIndex(netLongCommercialPositions())
largeSpecsIndex = calcIndex(netLongLargePositions())
smallSpecsIndex = calcIndex(netLongSmallPositions())
// Conditional logic based on user input
plotValueCommercials = hideCurrentWeek ? (timenow >= time_close ? commercialsIndex : na) : (showProducers ? commercialsIndex : na)
plotValueLarge = hideCurrentWeek ? (timenow >= time_close ? largeSpecsIndex : na) : (showLargeSpecs ? largeSpecsIndex : na)
plotValueSmall = hideCurrentWeek ? (timenow >= time_close ? smallSpecsIndex : na) : (showSmallSpecs ? smallSpecsIndex : na)
// Plot the index and horizontal lines
plot(plotValueCommercials, "Commercials", color=color.blue, style=plot.style_line, linewidth=2)
plot(plotValueLarge, "Large Speculators", color=color.red, style=plot.style_line, linewidth=1)
plot(plotValueSmall, "Small Speculators", color=color.green, style=plot.style_line, linewidth=1)
hline(upperExtreme, "Upper Threshold", color=color.green, linestyle=hline.style_solid, linewidth=1)
hline(lowerExtreme, "Lower Threshold", color=color.red, linestyle=hline.style_solid, linewidth=1)
/// Marking extremes with background color
bgcolor(markExtremes and (commercialsIndex >= upperExtreme or largeSpecsIndex >= upperExtreme or smallSpecsIndex >= upperExtreme) ? color.new(color.gray, 90) : na, title="Upper Threshold")
bgcolor(markExtremes and (commercialsIndex <= lowerExtreme or largeSpecsIndex <= lowerExtreme or smallSpecsIndex <= lowerExtreme) ? color.new(color.gray, 90) : na, title="Lower Threshold")
Neural Network Buy and Sell SignalsTrend Architect Suite Lite - Neural Network Buy and Sell Signals
Advanced AI-Powered Signal Scoring
This indicator provides neural network market analysis on buy and sell signals designed for scalpers and day traders who use 30s to 5m charts. Signals are generated based on an ATR system and then filtered and scored using an advanced AI-driven system.
Features
Neural Network Signal Engine
5-Layer Deep Learning analysis combining market structure, momentum, and market state detection
AI-based Letter Grade Scoring (A+ through F) for instant signal quality assessment
Normalized Input Processing with Z-score standardization and outlier clipping
Real-time Signal Evaluation using 5 market dimensions
Advanced Candle Types
Standard Candlesticks - Raw price action
Heikin Ashi - Trend smoothing and noise reduction
Linear Regression - Mathematical trend visualization
Independent Signal vs Display - Calculate signals on one type, display another
Key Settings
Signal Configuration
- Signal Trigger Sensitivity (Default: 1.7) - Controls signal frequency vs quality
- Stop Loss ATR Multiplier (Default: 1.5) - Risk management sizing
- Signal Candle Type (Default: Candlesticks) - Data source for signal calculations
- Display Candle Type (Default: Linear Regression) - Visual candle display
Display Options
- Signal Distance (Default: 1.35 ATR) - Label positioning from price
- Label Size (Default: Medium) - Optimal readability
Trading Applications
Scalping
- Fast pace signal detection with quality filtering
- ATR-based stop management prevents signal overlap
- Neural network attempts to reduces false signals in choppy markets
Day Trading
- Multi-timeframe compatible with adaptation settings
- Clear trend visualization with Linear Regression candles
- Support/resistance integration for better entries/exits
Signal Filtering
- Use A+/A grades for highest probability setups
- B grades for confirmation in trending markets
- C-F grades help identify market uncertainty
Why Choose Trend Architect Lite?
No Lag - Real-time neural network processing
No Repainting - Signals appear and stay fixed
Clean Charts - Focus on price action, not indicators
Smart Filtering - AI reduces noise and false signals
Flexible and customizable - Works across all timeframes and instruments
Compatibility
- All Timeframes - 1m to Monthly charts
- All Instruments - Forex, Crypto, Stocks, Futures, Indices
Risk Disclaimer
This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
EZThis script is designed to provide a clear, visual confirmation of trend direction, momentum shifts, and institutional bias by combining multiple EMA layers and smoothed Heiken Ashi waves.
Features:
• EMA Trend Band (8, 13, 21 EMA): Highlights short-term trend strength and clean stacking conditions.
• 35 EMA Momentum Line: Captures medium-term momentum shifts for better trade entries.
• 200 SMA Institutional Bias Line: Filters trades aligned with higher timeframe bias.
• Triple-Smoothed Heiken Ashi Waves: Changes background & candle colors to reflect momentum waves, filtering out noise and false signals.
• Liquidity Sweep Zones & Inverse FVGs (Optional): Helps identify smart money footprints and potential reversal zones.
Use Case:
• Best suited for trend-following traders, scalpers, and swing traders who rely on multi-timeframe confluence.
• Works effectively on Forex, Futures, Indices, and Crypto charts.
• Designed to filter out fakeouts and highlight high-probability trade zones.
Disclaimer:
This script is for educational purposes only. It does not guarantee profits and should be used in combination with proper risk management and trading experience.
Зміщена MA з урахуванням волатильності (ATR)This is an experimental script designed to mark potential entry points for spot or long futures trades.
It uses a moving average (SMA or EMA) that is dynamically shifted downward based on current ATR (volatility). When the price crosses above this adjusted MA, a potential long entry signal is generated.
A stoploss line is plotted below the adjusted MA — offset
Adaptive Market Profile – Auto Detect & Dynamic Activity ZonesAdaptive Market Profile is an advanced indicator that automatically detects and displays the most relevant trend channel and market profile for any asset and timeframe. Unlike standard regression channel tools, this script uses a fully adaptive approach to identify the optimal period, providing you with the channel that best fits the current market dynamics. The calculation is based on maximizing the statistical significance of the trend using Pearson’s R coefficient, ensuring that the most relevant trend is always selected.
Within the selected channel, the indicator generates a dynamic market profile, breaking the price range into configurable zones and displaying the most active areas based on volume or the number of touches. This allows you to instantly identify high-activity price levels and potential support/resistance zones. The “most active lines” are plotted in real-time and always stay parallel to the channel, dynamically adapting to market structure.
Key features:
- Automatic detection of the optimal regression period: The script scans a wide range of lengths and selects the channel that statistically represents the strongest trend.
- Dynamic market profile: Visualizes the distribution of volume or price touches inside the trend channel, with customizable section count.
- Most active zones: Highlights the most traded or touched price levels as dynamic, parallel lines for precise support/resistance reading.
- Manual override: Optionally, users can select their own channel period for full control.
- Supports both linear and logarithmic charts: Simple toggle to match your chart scaling.
Use cases:
- Trend following and channel trading strategies.
- Quick identification of dynamic support/resistance and liquidity zones.
- Objective selection of the most statistically significant trend channel, without manual guesswork.
- Suitable for all assets and timeframes (crypto, stocks, forex, futures).
Originality:
This script goes beyond basic regression channels by integrating dynamic profile analysis and fully adaptive period detection, offering a comprehensive tool for modern technical analysts. The combination of trend detection, market profile, and activity zone mapping is unique and not available in TradingView built-ins.
Instructions:
Add Adaptive Market Profile to your chart. By default, the script automatically detects the optimal channel period and displays the corresponding regression channel with dynamic profile and activity zones. If you prefer manual control, disable “Auto trend channel period” and set your preferred period. Adjust profile settings as needed for your asset and timeframe.
For questions, suggestions, or further customization, contact Julien Eche (@Julien_Eche) directly on TradingView.
TZtraderTZtrader
This is a TrendZones version with features to set stoploss and targets in short and long positions meant for use in intraday charts. It aims to provide signals for opening and closing long and short positions. In the comments under the TrendZones publication several people expressed a need for features for a short position similar to those for a long position as implemented in TrendZones, some want to use it for scalping, some asked for alerts. When I proposed to create a version for day trading with target lines based on ATR, several people liked the idea.
Full disclosure: I don’t do day trading, because, after I lost a lot of money, I had to promise my wife to stay away from it. I restrict myself to long term investing in stocks which are in uptrend. However I understand what a day trader needs. I gather from my experience that day trading or scalping is an attempt to earn something by opening a position in the morning and close, reopen and close it again during the day with a profit. It is usually done with leveraged instruments like CFD’s, futures, options, and what have you. Opening and closing positions is done within minutes, so the trader needs a quick and efficient way to set proper stoploss and target. TZtrader supports this by showing only three or four numbers on the price bar: The price of the instrument, The logical stop level (gray or green or maroon dots), and the target level (navy). All other numbers are suppressed to prevent mistakes. Also a clear feedback for current settings at the top-center of the pane and an alert feedback at bottom that flashes alerts during the development of the current bar and gives suppression status.
The script
First I made a bare bones version of TrendZones to which I added code for long and short trading setups and a bare setup for no position. The code for the logical stops in long setup had to be reviewed, after which this became the basis for stops in short setup.
Then I added code for 10 alert messages, which was a hassle, because this is the first time I coded alerts and the first time I used an array as a stack to avoid a complicated if-then construction. During testing the array caused a runtime error which I solved by adding ‘array.clear’ to the code, also I discovered that in TradingView separate alerts have to be created for all three setups - short, long and bare. Flipping setups is done in the inputs with a dropdown menu because Pine Script has no function for a clickable button.
One visual with three setups.
The visual has the TrendZones structure: Three near parallel very smooth curves, which border the moderate uptrend (green) and downtrend (orange) zone over and under the curve in the middle, the COG (Center Of Gravity). Where the price breaks out of these curves, strong trend zones show up over and under the curves, respectively strong uptrend (blue) and strong downtrend (red).
Three setups were made clearly different to avoid confusion and to provide oversight in case of multiple trades going on simultaneously which I imagine are monitored in one screen. You have to see which one is long, which short and which have no position. The long setup should not trigger short signals, nor should the short trigger long signals nor the bare setup exclusive long or short signals.
The Long setup is default, shown on the example chart. In this setup the Stoploss suggestions (green, gray and maroon dots) are under the price bars and the target line (navy) at a set distance above the High Border. A zone with a width of 1 ATR is drawn under the Low Border. In this setup 5 specific alerts are provided
The Short setup has the Stoploss suggestions over the price bars, the target line at a set distance under the Low Border. A zone with a width of 1 ATR is drawn above the High Border. This setup also has 5 specific alerts.
The Bare setup has no Stoploss suggestions, no target line and supports 4 alerts, 2 in common with the Long setup and 2 with Short.
The table below gives a summary of scripted alerts:
Setup = Where = When = Purpose
Long, Bare = Green Zone = Bars come from lower zones = Uptrend starts
Long, Bare = Green Zone = Sideways ends in uptrend = Uptrend resumes
Long = COG = First crossing = Uptrend might end warning
Long = Orange Zone = Bars come from higher zones = Uptrend ended take care
Long = Red Zone = Bars come from higher zones = Strong downtrend->close Long
Short, Bare = Orange Zone = Bars come from higher zones = Downtrend starts
Short, Bare = Orange Zone = Sideways ends in downtrend = Downtrend resumes
Short = COG = First crossing = Downtrend might end warning
Short = Green Zone = Bars come from lower zones = Downtrend ended take care
Short = Blue Zone = Bars come from lower zones = Strong uptrend -> close short
You can use script alerts in TradingView by clicking the clock in the sidebar, then ‘create alert’ or plus, as condition you choose ‘Tztrader’ in the dialog box, then the “Any alert() function call” option (the first item in the list). The script lets the valid alert trigger by TradingView after the bar is completed, this can differ from the flashed messages during its formation.
When you create alerts in Tradingview, I advice to do that for each setup, then to make only the alert active which matches the current setup, pause the other ones.
Suppressing false and annoying signals
The script has two ways to suppress such signals, which have to do with the numbers in the alert feedback. The numbers left and right of the message with a colored background, depict the zones in which the previous (left) and current (right) bar move. 1 is the strong downtrend zone (red), 2 the moderate downtrend zone (orange), 3 the sideways zones (gray), 4 the COG (gray), 5 the moderate uptrend zone (green), 6 the strong uptrend zone (blue), 7 something went wrong with assigning a zone (black). In extensive testing the number 7 never occurs, because I catch that error in the code. The idea is that an alert is only triggered if the previous bar was in a different zone. When the bars are in the same zone, no alert is possible. This way all annoying signals are suppressed and long, short and bare get the appropriate alerts.
The third number is a counter. It counts how often the COG is crossed without touching the outer curves. The counter will reset to zero when the upper or lower curve is touched. When the count is 1 you have zone situation 4 and appropriate alerts are flashed. When the count is 2 or higher, a sideways situation (3) is called and while the recrossings are going on, no alerts can be flashed. This suppresses false signals. The ATR zone and curves are brownish-gray where sideways happens(ed). When the channel is narrowed down to just the three curves, some false signals still might occur.
Inputs
“Setup”, default is long, drop down menu provides long, short and bare.
“Target ATR”, default is 2, sets the amount of ATR for the target line. In 1 minute charts 4 seems an appropriate setting, you have to learn by experience which setting works.
“show feedback …” default is on, This creates two feedback labels, a Setup feedback on top of the pane, which shows charted instrument, Setup type, Trend and timeframe of the chart. Background color of Trend feedback is green when it matches the setup, red when mismatches and gray when no match. The alert feedback at the bottom of the pane shows a number, a message and two numbers. The numbers will be explained in the chapter about false and annoying signals below. During formation of the bar, valid alerts are flashed with a blue background, otherwise the message ‘alerts for current bar suppressed’.
Logical Stops
The curves are the logical place to put stops, because, as these are averages of the high and low border of a Donchian channel, they signify the ‘natural’ current highest, lowest and main level in the lookback period that fit the monitored trend setup. A downtrend turns into an uptrend when a breakout of the upper curve occurs. If you are short, that is where you want to close position, so the logical place for the stoploss is the upper curve. Vice versa, when you are long, the logical stop is on the lower curve. The stops show up as green or gray dots on the curves, the green dots signify a nice entry level, the gray stops are there to suggest levels where unrealized profits might be secured, the maroon dots indicate that the trend mismatches the setup.
COG versus other lines
Any line used to identify a trend, be it some MA or some other line, is interpreted the same way: When the bars move above the line there is an uptrend and when below, a downtrend. COG is not different in that sense. If you put such a line in the same chart as TZtrader, you can see situations in which the other line shows uptrend or downtrend earlier than COG, also some other lines, e.g. Hull MA, are very good at showing tops and bottoms, while COG ignores these. On the other hand the other lines are usually a little nervous and let you shake out of position too soon. Just like the other lines, COG gives false signals when it is near horizontal. The advantage of the placement COG is the tolerance for pull backs. This way TZtrader keeps you longer in the trend. Such pull backs are often ‘flags’ which are interpreted in TA as confirming the trend. Tztrader aims to get you in position reasonably soon when a trend begins and out of position as soon as the trend turns against you. The placement of COG is done with a fundamentally different algorithm than other lines as it is not an average of prices, but the middle of two averages of borders of a Donchian channel. This gives the two zones between the curves the same quality as the two zones above and below the middle line of a standard Donchian Channel.
A multi timeframe application.
In this scenario you put a 5 minutes and 1 minute chart with Tztrader side by side. If the 5 minutes shows uptrend, set the 1 minute on long trading and open positions when the trend matches uptrend en close when it mismatches. Don’t open short positions. Once the 5 minute changes to downtrend, set Tztrader in the 1 minute to short trading and open positions when the trend matches downtrend and close when it mismatches.
The idea is that in a long ‘context’, provided by the 5 minutes, the uptrends in the 1 minute will last longer and go further, vice versa for the short ‘context’. This way you do swing trading in the 5 minute in a smart way, maximizing profits.
You can do this with any timeframe pairs with a proportion of around 5:1, 4:1, 6:1, like e.g. 60 minutes and 15 minutes or weeks and days (5 trading days in a week).
Dear day-traders, may this tool be helpful and may your days be blessed.
Take care
Auto-Pivot Levels with Alerts and 4 methods [ChartWhizzperer]🚀 Auto-Pivot Levels – Dynamic Edition
Now with
Live Mode,
4 Pivot Methods
PineConnector-Ready Alerts!
Free, Open Source, Pine Script v6-compliant.
🟢 NEW: Live Mode (Ultra-Dynamic, Repainting) – Switchable in UI!
Instantly switch between Classic (session-based, repaint-free) and Live (rolling window, real-time, repainting) using the simple checkbox in the settings!
Live Mode recalculates all pivots on every tick/bar, using the current high/low/close for the chosen session (daily, weekly, monthly).
Perfect for:
Scalping and high-frequency trading
Real-time bot/automation setups (PineConnector-ready)
Fast-moving or breakout markets
Classic Mode: For traditional, stable levels based on confirmed session data – ideal for backtesting and trading history.
📊 Four Calculation Methods (Choose What Fits YOU):
1️⃣ Classic
Standard pivot calculation.
Based on previous session’s High, Low, Close.
Simple, proven, and suitable for any asset.
2️⃣ Fibonacci
Projects levels using Fibonacci ratios of the prior session’s range.
Great for traders who want to align pivots with fib retracements and extensions.
3️⃣ Camarilla
Uses unique multipliers for support/resistance, focusing on mean reversion and volatility.
Popular among futures and forex day traders.
4️⃣ Woodie
Puts extra weight on previous Close for more responsive pivots.
Often used in trending or choppy conditions.
Switch methods anytime in the UI – the script recalculates instantly and keeps your chart clean!
🔔 Level-Specific Alerts – PineConnector Ready!
Dedicated alert for EVERY level and direction (Up/Down):
Pivot (P), R1, R2, R3, S1, S2, S3
No configuration hassle:
All alerts are pre-defined in the TradingView Alert Panel.
Machine-readable message format:
PIVOT=R1 DIR=UP SYMBOL={{ticker}} PRICE={{close}}
Direct plug-and-play with PineConnector, webhooks, Discord, Telegram, bots, and other automation tools.
Never miss a breakout, reversal, or key support/resistance touch.
🛠 Powerful Customization & Performance
Session selection: Daily, Weekly, Monthly (choose what suits your trading style).
Show/hide any level (Pivot, R1–R3, S1–S3) for minimal chart clutter.
Color selection for each level to match your theme or highlight key pivots.
Auto-cleanup: Old lines and labels are cleared on every recalculation or session change for maximum performance and visual clarity.
Zero runtime errors: Strict Pine Script v6 practices for stability.
💡 How To Use – Quick Start
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart.
Pick your calculation method (Classic, Fibonacci, Camarilla, Woodie).
Set session type (Daily, Weekly, Monthly).
Switch between Classic and Live Mode with a single click in settings.
Customize your levels (on/off, colors).
Open the Alert Panel, select any pre-configured alert (e.g. "R2 Cross Down"), and go live!
Connect with PineConnector or any webhook system instantly using the pre-formatted alert messages.
🤖 Who Is It For?
Active scalpers & bot traders: Live Mode + PineConnector-ready alerts = instant, automated reactions.
Swing and position traders: Use Classic Mode for stable, repaint-free levels.
Strategy developers: Seamless integration into automated and manual trading workflows.
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Recession Warning Model [BackQuant]Recession Warning Model
Overview
The Recession Warning Model (RWM) is a Pine Script® indicator designed to estimate the probability of an economic recession by integrating multiple macroeconomic, market sentiment, and labor market indicators. It combines over a dozen data series into a transparent, adaptive, and actionable tool for traders, portfolio managers, and researchers. The model provides customizable complexity levels, display modes, and data processing options to accommodate various analytical requirements while ensuring robustness through dynamic weighting and regime-aware adjustments.
Purpose
The RWM fulfills the need for a concise yet comprehensive tool to monitor recession risk. Unlike approaches relying on a single metric, such as yield-curve inversion, or extensive economic reports, it consolidates multiple data sources into a single probability output. The model identifies active indicators, their confidence levels, and the current economic regime, enabling users to anticipate downturns and adjust strategies accordingly.
Core Features
- Indicator Families : Incorporates 13 indicators across five categories: Yield, Labor, Sentiment, Production, and Financial Stress.
- Dynamic Weighting : Adjusts indicator weights based on recent predictive accuracy, constrained within user-defined boundaries.
- Leading and Coincident Split : Separates early-warning (leading) and confirmatory (coincident) signals, with adjustable weighting (default 60/40 mix).
- Economic Regime Sensitivity : Modulates output sensitivity based on market conditions (Expansion, Late-Cycle, Stress, Crisis), using a composite of VIX, yield-curve, financial conditions, and credit spreads.
- Display Options : Supports four modes—Probability (0-100%), Binary (four risk bins), Lead/Coincident, and Ensemble (blended probability).
- Confidence Intervals : Reflects model stability, widening during high volatility or conflicting signals.
- Alerts : Configurable thresholds (Watch, Caution, Warning, Alert) with persistence filters to minimize false signals.
- Data Export : Enables CSV output for probabilities, signals, and regimes, facilitating external analysis in Python or R.
Model Complexity Levels
Users can select from four tiers to balance simplicity and depth:
1. Essential : Focuses on three core indicators—yield-curve spread, jobless claims, and unemployment change—for minimalistic monitoring.
2. Standard : Expands to nine indicators, adding consumer confidence, PMI, VIX, S&P 500 trend, money supply vs. GDP, and the Sahm Rule.
3. Professional : Includes all 13 indicators, incorporating financial conditions, credit spreads, JOLTS vacancies, and wage growth.
4. Research : Unlocks all indicators plus experimental settings for advanced users.
Key Indicators
Below is a summary of the 13 indicators, their data sources, and economic significance:
- Yield-Curve Spread : Difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. Negative spreads signal banking sector stress.
- Jobless Claims : Four-week moving average of unemployment claims. Sustained increases indicate rising layoffs.
- Unemployment Change : Three-month change in unemployment rate. Sharp rises often precede recessions.
- Sahm Rule : Triggers when unemployment rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, a reliable recession indicator.
- Consumer Confidence : University of Michigan survey. Declines reflect household pessimism, impacting spending.
- PMI : Purchasing Managers’ Index. Values below 50 indicate manufacturing contraction.
- VIX : CBOE Volatility Index. Elevated levels suggest market anticipation of economic distress.
- S&P 500 Growth : Weekly moving average trend. Declines reduce wealth effects, curbing consumption.
- M2 + GDP Trend : Monitors money supply and real GDP. Simultaneous declines signal credit contraction.
- NFCI : Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index. Positive values indicate tighter conditions.
- Credit Spreads : Proxy for corporate bond spreads using 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury yields. Widening spreads reflect stress.
- JOLTS Vacancies : Job openings data. Significant drops precede hiring slowdowns.
- Wage Growth : Year-over-year change in average hourly earnings. Late-cycle spikes often signal economic overheating.
Data Processing
- Rate of Change (ROC) : Optionally applied to capture momentum in data series (default: 21-bar period).
- Z-Score Normalization : Standardizes indicators to a common scale (default: 252-bar lookback).
- Smoothing : Applies a short moving average to final signals (default: 5-bar period) to reduce noise.
- Binary Signals : Generated for each indicator (e.g., yield-curve inverted or PMI below 50) based on thresholds or Z-score deviations.
Probability Calculation
1. Each indicator’s binary signal is weighted according to user settings or dynamic performance.
2. Weights are normalized to sum to 100% across active indicators.
3. Leading and coincident signals are aggregated separately (if split mode is enabled) and combined using the specified mix.
4. The probability is adjusted by a regime multiplier, amplifying risk during Stress or Crisis regimes.
5. Optional smoothing ensures stable outputs.
Display and Visualization
- Probability Mode : Plots a continuous 0-100% recession probability with color gradients and confidence bands.
- Binary Mode : Categorizes risk into four levels (Minimal, Watch, Caution, Alert) for simplified dashboards.
- Lead/Coincident Mode : Displays leading and coincident probabilities separately to track signal divergence.
- Ensemble Mode : Averages traditional and split probabilities for a balanced view.
- Regime Background : Color-coded overlays (green for Expansion, orange for Late-Cycle, amber for Stress, red for Crisis).
- Analytics Table : Optional dashboard showing probability, confidence, regime, and top indicator statuses.
Practical Applications
- Asset Allocation : Adjust equity or bond exposures based on sustained probability increases.
- Risk Management : Hedge portfolios with VIX futures or options during regime shifts to Stress or Crisis.
- Sector Rotation : Shift toward defensive sectors when coincident signals rise above 50%.
- Trading Filters : Disable short-term strategies during high-risk regimes.
- Event Timing : Scale positions ahead of high-impact data releases when probability and VIX are elevated.
Configuration Guidelines
- Enable ROC and Z-score for consistent indicator comparison unless raw data is preferred.
- Use dynamic weighting with at least one economic cycle of data for optimal performance.
- Monitor stress composite scores above 80 alongside probabilities above 70 for critical risk signals.
- Adjust adaptation speed (default: 0.1) to 0.2 during Crisis regimes for faster indicator prioritization.
- Combine RWM with complementary tools (e.g., liquidity metrics) for intraday or short-term trading.
Limitations
- Macro indicators lag intraday market moves, making RWM better suited for strategic rather than tactical trading.
- Historical data availability may constrain dynamic weighting on shorter timeframes.
- Model accuracy depends on the quality and timeliness of economic data feeds.
Final Note
The Recession Warning Model provides a disciplined framework for monitoring economic downturn risks. By integrating diverse indicators with transparent weighting and regime-aware adjustments, it empowers users to make informed decisions in portfolio management, risk hedging, or macroeconomic research. Regular review of model outputs alongside market-specific tools ensures its effective application across varying market conditions.
FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator [BackQuant]FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator
1. Concept and Rationale
The United States Federal Funds Rate is the anchor around which global dollar liquidity and risk-free yield expectations revolve. When the Fed hikes, borrowing costs rise, liquidity tightens and most risk assets encounter head-winds. When it cuts, liquidity expands, speculative appetite often recovers. Bitcoin, a 24-hour permissionless asset sometimes described as “digital gold with venture-capital-like convexity,” is particularly sensitive to macro-liquidity swings.
The FED Divergence Oscillator quantifies the behavioural gap between short-term monetary policy (proxied by the effective Fed Funds Rate) and Bitcoin’s own percentage price change. By converting each series into identical rate-of-change units, subtracting them, then optionally smoothing the result, the script produces a single bounded-yet-dynamic line that tells you, at a glance, whether Bitcoin is outperforming or underperforming the policy backdrop—and by how much.
2. Data Pipeline
• Fed Funds Rate – Pulled directly from the FRED database via the ticker “FRED:FEDFUNDS,” sampled at daily frequency to synchronise with crypto closes.
• Bitcoin Price – By default the script forces a daily timeframe so that both series share time alignment, although you can disable that and plot the oscillator on intraday charts if you prefer.
• User Source Flexibility – The BTC series is not hard-wired; you can select any exchange-specific symbol or even swap BTC for another crypto or risk asset whose interaction with the Fed rate you wish to study.
3. Math under the Hood
(1) Rate of Change (ROC) – Both the Fed rate and BTC close are converted to percent return over a user-chosen lookback (default 30 bars). This means a cut from 5.25 percent to 5.00 percent feeds in as –4.76 percent, while a climb from 25 000 to 30 000 USD in BTC over the same window converts to +20 percent.
(2) Divergence Construction – The script subtracts the Fed ROC from the BTC ROC. Positive values show BTC appreciating faster than policy is tightening (or falling slower than the rate is cutting); negative values show the opposite.
(3) Optional Smoothing – Macro series are noisy. Toggle “Apply Smoothing” to calm the line with your preferred moving-average flavour: SMA, EMA, DEMA, TEMA, RMA, WMA or Hull. The default EMA-25 removes day-to-day whips while keeping turning points alive.
(4) Dynamic Colour Mapping – Rather than using a single hue, the oscillator line employs a gradient where deep greens represent strong bullish divergence and dark reds flag sharp bearish divergence. This heat-map approach lets you gauge intensity without squinting at numbers.
(5) Threshold Grid – Five horizontal guides create a structured regime map:
• Lower Extreme (–50 pct) and Upper Extreme (+50 pct) identify panic capitulations and euphoria blow-offs.
• Oversold (–20 pct) and Overbought (+20 pct) act as early warning alarms.
• Zero Line demarcates neutral alignment.
4. Chart Furniture and User Interface
• Oscillator fill with a secondary DEMA-30 “shader” offers depth perception: fat ribbons often precede high-volatility macro shifts.
• Optional bar-colouring paints candles green when the oscillator is above zero and red below, handy for visual correlation.
• Background tints when the line breaches extreme zones, making macro inflection weeks pop out in the replay bar.
• Everything—line width, thresholds, colours—can be customised so the indicator blends into any template.
5. Interpretation Guide
Macro Liquidity Pulse
• When the oscillator spends weeks above +20 while the Fed is still raising rates, Bitcoin is signalling liquidity tolerance or an anticipatory pivot view. That condition often marks the embryonic phase of major bull cycles (e.g., March 2020 rebound).
• Sustained prints below –20 while the Fed is already dovish indicate risk aversion or idiosyncratic crypto stress—think exchange scandals or broad flight to safety.
Regime Transition Signals
• Bullish cross through zero after a long sub-zero stint shows Bitcoin regaining upward escape velocity versus policy.
• Bearish cross under zero during a hiking cycle tells you monetary tightening has finally started to bite.
Momentum Exhaustion and Mean-Reversion
• Touches of +50 (or –50) come rarely; they are statistically stretched events. Fade strategies either taking profits or hedging have historically enjoyed positive expectancy.
• Inside-bar candlestick patterns or lower-timeframe bearish engulfings simultaneously with an extreme overbought print make high-probability short scalp setups, especially near weekly resistance. The same logic mirrors for oversold.
Pair Trading / Relative Value
• Combine the oscillator with spreads like BTC versus Nasdaq 100. When both the FED Divergence oscillator and the BTC–NDQ relative-strength line roll south together, the cross-asset confirmation amplifies conviction in a mean-reversion short.
• Swap BTC for miners, altcoins or high-beta equities to test who is the divergence leader.
Event-Driven Tactics
• FOMC days: plot the oscillator on an hourly chart (disable ‘Force Daily TF’). Watch for micro-structural spikes that resolve in the first hour after the statement; rapid flips across zero can front-run post-FOMC swings.
• CPI and NFP prints: extremes reached into the release often mean positioning is one-sided. A reversion toward neutral in the first 24 hours is common.
6. Alerts Suite
Pre-bundled conditions let you automate workflows:
• Bullish / Bearish zero crosses – queue spot or futures entries.
• Standard OB / OS – notify for first contact with actionable zones.
• Extreme OB / OS – prime time to review hedges, take profits or build contrarian swing positions.
7. Parameter Playground
• Shorten ROC Lookback to 14 for tactical traders; lengthen to 90 for macro investors.
• Raise extreme thresholds (for example ±80) when plotting on altcoins that exhibit higher volatility than BTC.
• Try HMA smoothing for responsive yet smooth curves on intraday charts.
• Colour-blind users can easily swap bull and bear palette selections for preferred contrasts.
8. Limitations and Best Practices
• The Fed Funds series is step-wise; it only changes on meeting days. Rapid BTC oscillations in between may dominate the calculation. Keep that perspective when interpreting very high-frequency signals.
• Divergence does not equal causation. Crypto-native catalysts (ETF approvals, hack headlines) can overwhelm macro links temporarily.
• Use in conjunction with classical confirmation tools—order-flow footprints, market-profile ledges, or simple price action to avoid “pure-indicator” traps.
9. Final Thoughts
The FEDFUNDS Rate Divergence Oscillator distills an entire macro narrative monetary policy versus risk sentiment into a single colourful heartbeat. It will not magically predict every pivot, yet it excels at framing market context, spotting stretches and timing regime changes. Treat it as a strategic compass rather than a tactical sniper scope, combine it with sound risk management and multi-factor confirmation, and you will possess a robust edge anchored in the world’s most influential interest-rate benchmark.
Trade consciously, stay adaptive, and let the policy-price tension guide your roadmap.
Drawdown Distribution Analysis (DDA) ACADEMIC FOUNDATION AND RESEARCH BACKGROUND
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator implements quantitative risk management principles, drawing upon decades of academic research in portfolio theory, behavioral finance, and statistical risk modeling. This tool provides risk assessment capabilities for traders and portfolio managers seeking to understand their current position within historical drawdown patterns.
The theoretical foundation of this indicator rests on modern portfolio theory as established by Markowitz (1952), who introduced the fundamental concepts of risk-return optimization that continue to underpin contemporary portfolio management. Sharpe (1966) later expanded this framework by developing risk-adjusted performance measures, most notably the Sharpe ratio, which remains a cornerstone of performance evaluation in financial markets.
The specific focus on drawdown analysis builds upon the work of Chekhlov, Uryasev and Zabarankin (2005), who provided the mathematical framework for incorporating drawdown measures into portfolio optimization. Their research demonstrated that traditional mean-variance optimization often fails to capture the full risk profile of investment strategies, particularly regarding sequential losses. More recent work by Goldberg and Mahmoud (2017) has brought these theoretical concepts into practical application within institutional risk management frameworks.
Value at Risk methodology, as comprehensively outlined by Jorion (2007), provides the statistical foundation for the risk measurement components of this indicator. The coherent risk measures framework developed by Artzner et al. (1999) ensures that the risk metrics employed satisfy the mathematical properties required for sound risk management decisions. Additionally, the focus on downside risk follows the framework established by Sortino and Price (1994), while the drawdown-adjusted performance measures implement concepts introduced by Young (1991).
MATHEMATICAL METHODOLOGY
The core calculation methodology centers on a peak-tracking algorithm that continuously monitors the maximum price level achieved and calculates the percentage decline from this peak. The drawdown at any time t is defined as DD(t) = (P(t) - Peak(t)) / Peak(t) × 100, where P(t) represents the asset price at time t and Peak(t) represents the running maximum price observed up to time t.
Statistical distribution analysis forms the analytical backbone of the indicator. The system calculates key percentiles using the ta.percentile_nearest_rank() function to establish the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentiles of the historical drawdown distribution. This approach provides a complete picture of how the current drawdown compares to historical patterns.
Statistical significance assessment employs standard deviation bands at one, two, and three standard deviations from the mean, following the conventional approach where the upper band equals μ + nσ and the lower band equals μ - nσ. The Z-score calculation, defined as Z = (DD - μ) / σ, enables the identification of statistically extreme events, with thresholds set at |Z| > 2.5 for extreme drawdowns and |Z| > 3.0 for severe drawdowns, corresponding to confidence levels exceeding 99.4% and 99.7% respectively.
ADVANCED RISK METRICS
The indicator incorporates several risk-adjusted performance measures that extend beyond basic drawdown analysis. The Sharpe ratio calculation follows the standard formula Sharpe = (R - Rf) / σ, where R represents the annualized return, Rf represents the risk-free rate, and σ represents the annualized volatility. The system supports dynamic sourcing of the risk-free rate from the US 10-year Treasury yield or allows for manual specification.
The Sortino ratio addresses the limitation of the Sharpe ratio by focusing exclusively on downside risk, calculated as Sortino = (R - Rf) / σd, where σd represents the downside deviation computed using only negative returns. This measure provides a more accurate assessment of risk-adjusted performance for strategies that exhibit asymmetric return distributions.
The Calmar ratio, defined as Annual Return divided by the absolute value of Maximum Drawdown, offers a direct measure of return per unit of drawdown risk. This metric proves particularly valuable for comparing strategies or assets with different risk profiles, as it directly relates performance to the maximum historical loss experienced.
Value at Risk calculations provide quantitative estimates of potential losses at specified confidence levels. The 95% VaR corresponds to the 5th percentile of the drawdown distribution, while the 99% VaR corresponds to the 1st percentile. Conditional VaR, also known as Expected Shortfall, estimates the average loss in the worst 5% of scenarios, providing insight into tail risk that standard VaR measures may not capture.
To enable fair comparison across assets with different volatility characteristics, the indicator calculates volatility-adjusted drawdowns using the formula Adjusted DD = Raw DD / (Volatility / 20%). This normalization allows for meaningful comparison between high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies and lower-volatility instruments like government bonds.
The Risk Efficiency Score represents a composite measure ranging from 0 to 100 that combines the Sharpe ratio and current percentile rank to provide a single metric for quick asset assessment. Higher scores indicate superior risk-adjusted performance relative to historical patterns.
COLOR SCHEMES AND VISUALIZATION
The indicator implements eight distinct color themes designed to accommodate different analytical preferences and market contexts. The EdgeTools theme employs a corporate blue palette that matches the design system used throughout the edgetools.org platform, ensuring visual consistency across analytical tools.
The Gold theme specifically targets precious metals analysis with warm tones that complement gold chart analysis, while the Quant theme provides a grayscale scheme suitable for analytical environments that prioritize clarity over aesthetic appeal. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color coding, using green to represent greed-driven market conditions and red to indicate fear-driven environments.
Additional themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes, each designed for specific market conditions or user preferences. All themes function effectively with both dark and light mode trading platforms, ensuring accessibility across different user interface configurations.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
Asset allocation and portfolio construction represent primary use cases for this analytical framework. When comparing multiple assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, traders can examine Risk Efficiency Scores to identify instruments offering superior risk-adjusted performance. The 95% VaR provides worst-case scenario comparisons, while volatility-adjusted drawdowns enable fair comparison despite varying volatility profiles.
The practical decision framework suggests that assets with Risk Efficiency Scores above 70 may be suitable for aggressive portfolio allocations, scores between 40 and 70 indicate moderate allocation potential, and scores below 40 suggest defensive positioning or avoidance. These thresholds should be adjusted based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions.
Risk management and position sizing applications utilize the current percentile rank to guide allocation decisions. When the current drawdown ranks above the 75th percentile of historical data, indicating that current conditions are better than 75% of historical periods, position increases may be warranted. Conversely, when percentile rankings fall below the 25th percentile, indicating elevated risk conditions, position reductions become advisable.
Institutional portfolio monitoring applications include hedge fund risk dashboard implementations where multiple strategies can be monitored simultaneously. Sharpe ratio tracking identifies deteriorating risk-adjusted performance across strategies, VaR monitoring ensures portfolios remain within established risk limits, and drawdown duration tracking provides valuable information for investor reporting requirements.
Market timing applications combine the statistical analysis with trend identification techniques. Strong buy signals may emerge when risk levels register as "Low" in conjunction with established uptrends, while extreme risk levels combined with downtrends may indicate exit or hedging opportunities. Z-scores exceeding 3.0 often signal statistically oversold conditions that may precede trend reversals.
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND VALIDATION
The indicator provides 95% confidence intervals around current drawdown levels using the standard formula CI = μ ± 1.96σ. This statistical framework enables users to assess whether current conditions fall within normal market variation or represent statistically significant departures from historical patterns.
Risk level classification employs a dynamic assessment system based on percentile ranking within the historical distribution. Low risk designation applies when current drawdowns perform better than 50% of historical data, moderate risk encompasses the 25th to 50th percentile range, high risk covers the 10th to 25th percentile range, and extreme risk applies to the worst 10% of historical drawdowns.
Sample size considerations play a crucial role in statistical reliability. For daily data, the system requires a minimum of 252 trading days (approximately one year) but performs better with 500 or more observations. Weekly data analysis benefits from at least 104 weeks (two years) of history, while monthly data requires a minimum of 60 months (five years) for reliable statistical inference.
IMPLEMENTATION BEST PRACTICES
Parameter optimization should consider the specific characteristics of different asset classes. Equity analysis typically benefits from 500-day lookback periods with 21-day smoothing, while cryptocurrency analysis may employ 365-day lookback periods with 14-day smoothing to account for higher volatility patterns. Fixed income analysis often requires longer lookback periods of 756 days with 34-day smoothing to capture the lower volatility environment.
Multi-timeframe analysis provides hierarchical risk assessment capabilities. Daily timeframe analysis supports tactical risk management decisions, weekly analysis informs strategic positioning choices, and monthly analysis guides long-term allocation decisions. This hierarchical approach ensures that risk assessment occurs at appropriate temporal scales for different investment objectives.
Integration with complementary indicators enhances the analytical framework. Trend indicators such as RSI and moving averages provide directional bias context, volume analysis helps confirm the severity of drawdown conditions, and volatility measures like VIX or ATR assist in market regime identification.
ALERT SYSTEM AND AUTOMATION
The automated alert system monitors five distinct categories of risk events. Risk level changes trigger notifications when drawdowns move between risk categories, enabling proactive risk management responses. Statistical significance alerts activate when Z-scores exceed established threshold levels of 2.5 or 3.0 standard deviations.
New maximum drawdown alerts notify users when historical maximum levels are exceeded, indicating entry into uncharted risk territory. Poor risk efficiency alerts trigger when the composite risk efficiency score falls below 30, suggesting deteriorating risk-adjusted performance. Sharpe ratio decline alerts activate when risk-adjusted performance turns negative, indicating that returns no longer compensate for the risk undertaken.
TRADING STRATEGIES
Conservative risk parity strategies can be implemented by monitoring Risk Efficiency Scores across a diversified asset portfolio. Monthly rebalancing maintains equal risk contribution from each asset, with allocation reductions triggered when risk levels reach "High" status and complete exits executed when "Extreme" risk levels emerge. This approach typically results in lower overall portfolio volatility, improved risk-adjusted returns, and reduced maximum drawdown periods.
Tactical asset rotation strategies compare Risk Efficiency Scores across different asset classes to guide allocation decisions. Assets with scores exceeding 60 receive overweight allocations, while assets scoring below 40 receive underweight positions. Percentile rankings provide timing guidance for allocation adjustments, creating a systematic approach to asset allocation that responds to changing risk-return profiles.
Market timing strategies with statistical edges can be constructed by entering positions when Z-scores fall below -2.5, indicating statistically oversold conditions, and scaling out when Z-scores exceed 2.5, suggesting overbought conditions. The 95% VaR serves as a stop-loss reference point, while trend confirmation indicators provide additional validation for position entry and exit decisions.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
Several statistical limitations affect the interpretation and application of these risk measures. Historical bias represents a fundamental challenge, as past drawdown patterns may not accurately predict future risk characteristics, particularly during structural market changes or regime shifts. Sample dependence means that results can be sensitive to the selected lookback period, with shorter periods providing more responsive but potentially less stable estimates.
Market regime changes can significantly alter the statistical parameters underlying the analysis. During periods of structural market evolution, historical distributions may provide poor guidance for future expectations. Additionally, many financial assets exhibit return distributions with fat tails that deviate from normal distribution assumptions, potentially leading to underestimation of extreme event probabilities.
Practical limitations include execution risk, where theoretical signals may not translate directly into actual trading results due to factors such as slippage, timing delays, and market impact. Liquidity constraints mean that risk metrics assume perfect liquidity, which may not hold during stressed market conditions when risk management becomes most critical.
Transaction costs are not incorporated into risk-adjusted return calculations, potentially overstating the attractiveness of strategies that require frequent trading. Behavioral factors represent another limitation, as human psychology may override statistical signals, particularly during periods of extreme market stress when disciplined risk management becomes most challenging.
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION
Performance optimization ensures reliable operation across different market conditions and timeframes. All technical analysis functions are extracted from conditional statements to maintain Pine Script compliance and ensure consistent execution. Memory efficiency is achieved through optimized variable scoping and array usage, while computational speed benefits from vectorized calculations where possible.
Data quality requirements include clean price data without gaps or errors that could distort distribution analysis. Sufficient historical data is essential, with a minimum of 100 bars required and 500 or more preferred for reliable statistical inference. Time alignment across related assets ensures meaningful comparison when conducting multi-asset analysis.
The configuration parameters are organized into logical groups to enhance usability. Core settings include the Distribution Analysis Period (100-2000 bars), Drawdown Smoothing Period (1-50 bars), and Price Source selection. Advanced metrics settings control risk-free rate sourcing, either from live market data or fixed rate specification, along with toggles for various risk-adjusted metric calculations.
Display options provide flexibility in visual presentation, including color theme selection from eight available schemes, automatic dark mode optimization, and control over table display, position lines, percentile bands, and standard deviation overlays. These options ensure that the indicator can be adapted to different analytical workflows and visual preferences.
CONCLUSION
The Drawdown Distribution Analysis indicator provides risk management tools for traders seeking to understand their current position within historical risk patterns. By combining established statistical methodology with practical usability features, the tool enables evidence-based risk assessment and portfolio optimization decisions.
The implementation draws upon established academic research while providing practical features that address real-world trading requirements. Dynamic risk-free rate integration ensures accurate risk-adjusted performance calculations, while multiple color schemes accommodate different analytical preferences and use cases.
Academic compliance is maintained through transparent methodology and acknowledgment of limitations. The tool implements peer-reviewed statistical techniques while clearly communicating the constraints and assumptions underlying the analysis. This approach ensures that users can make informed decisions about the appropriate application of the risk assessment framework within their broader trading and investment processes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M. and Heath, D. (1999) 'Coherent Measures of Risk', Mathematical Finance, 9(3), pp. 203-228.
Chekhlov, A., Uryasev, S. and Zabarankin, M. (2005) 'Drawdown Measure in Portfolio Optimization', International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 8(1), pp. 13-58.
Goldberg, L.R. and Mahmoud, O. (2017) 'Drawdown: From Practice to Theory and Back Again', Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 10(2), pp. 140-152.
Jorion, P. (2007) Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. 3rd edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Markowitz, H. (1952) 'Portfolio Selection', Journal of Finance, 7(1), pp. 77-91.
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) 'Mutual Fund Performance', Journal of Business, 39(1), pp. 119-138.
Sortino, F.A. and Price, L.N. (1994) 'Performance Measurement in a Downside Risk Framework', Journal of Investing, 3(3), pp. 59-64.
Young, T.W. (1991) 'Calmar Ratio: A Smoother Tool', Futures, 20(1), pp. 40-42.
