Custom Checklist# Custom Checklist - Trading Preparation & Reminders
A fully customizable checklist overlay indicator for TradingView that helps traders maintain discipline and follow their trading routine systematically.
## 🎯 Purpose
This indicator serves as a visual reminder system on your charts to ensure you complete all necessary analysis steps before entering a trade. Perfect for traders who want to maintain consistency and avoid emotional or rushed trading decisions.
## ✨ Key Features
- **20 Customizable Lines**: Create your own checklist items with any text you need
- **Flexible Display Options**:
- Show/hide title header
- Toggle entire checklist on/off
- Position anywhere on chart (9 positions available)
- Adjustable text size (tiny to huge)
- **Symbol Filtering**: Option to show checklist only on specific symbols (BTC/USD, GOLD, SPX500, USOIL)
- **Customizable Appearance**:
- Background color
- Text color
- Border color
- Transparency controls
- **Clean Interface**: Empty by default - add only the items you need
## 📋 Use Cases
- **Morning Routine**: Daily market preparation checklist
- **Trade Entry Rules**: Verify all setup conditions are met
- **Risk Management**: Confirm stop-loss, position size, and exit strategy
- **Multi-Timeframe Analysis**: Ensure you checked all required timeframes
- **Technical Analysis**: Track which indicators and patterns you've reviewed
- **News & Events**: Remember to check economic calendar and news
- **Personal Rules**: Your custom trading rules and reminders
## 🎨 Customization
Every aspect is customizable:
- All 20 lines can be edited to your needs
- Only non-empty lines are displayed
- Table position adjustable to any corner or middle position
- Color scheme fully customizable to match your chart theme
- Text size scalable for different screen sizes
## 💡 How to Use
1. Add indicator to your chart
2. Open Settings > Checklist Items
3. Fill in your checklist items (Line 1, Line 2, etc.)
4. Customize colors and position in Display Settings
5. Optional: Enable "Show Only on Specific Symbols" to show on select instruments
## 🔧 Display Settings
- **Checklist Title**: Custom header for your checklist
- **Show Title Header**: Toggle title display
- **Show Checklist**: Master on/off switch
- **Symbol Filter**: Restrict display to specific trading instruments
- **Position**: 9 placement options (corners and middle positions)
- **Text Size**: 5 size options (tiny, small, normal, large, huge)
- **Colors**: Background, text, and border fully customizable
## 📝 Example Checklist Ideas
**Swing Trading:**
- Support/Resistance levels identified
- Trend direction confirmed
- Volume analysis completed
- RSI/MACD signals checked
- Risk/Reward ratio calculated
**Day Trading:**
- Pre-market review done
- Key levels marked
- Economic calendar checked
- Trading plan written
- Position size calculated
**Technical Analysis:**
- Multiple timeframe alignment
- Chart patterns identified
- Moving averages reviewed
- Fibonacci levels drawn
- Volume profile analyzed
## ⚙️ Technical Details
- Pine Script v6
- Overlay indicator (displays on main chart)
- Lightweight - no complex calculations
- No repainting
- Works on all timeframes and instruments
## 🎓 Perfect For
- Beginner traders learning systematic analysis
- Experienced traders maintaining discipline
- Anyone who wants visual trading reminders
- Traders following multi-step strategies
- Those prone to FOMO or emotional trading
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**Note**: This is a visual tool only. It does not generate trading signals or perform analysis. It serves as a reminder checklist to help you follow your own trading process consistently.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "GOLD"
Advanced Multi-Timeframe Moving AveragesThis indicator combines three fully customizable Moving Averages (MA30, MA80, MA120 by default) with multi-timeframe support, trend detection, and visual highlights — all in one lightweight script.
⚙️ Features
🕒 Multi-Timeframe Control – set a custom timeframe for each MA (e.g. MA30 from 1H, MA80 from 4H, MA120 from Daily).
🟢 Dynamic Trend Coloring – candles and background turn green when price is above all MAs, and red when below.
⚡ Crossover Alerts – built-in alerts for MA1↔MA2, MA2↔MA3, and MA1↔MA3 crossovers.
🎨 Optimized Colors – clear, bright MA colors for better visibility:
MA 1 (short-term): Gold (#FFD700)
MA 2 (mid-term): Deep Sky Blue (#00BFFF)
MA 3 (long-term): Hot Pink (#FF69B4)
🧩 Simple, Modular Design – easily adjust lengths, types (SMA/EMA), and timeframes from inputs.
🧠 How to Use
Add the indicator to your chart.
Set your preferred lengths (e.g. 30, 80, 120).
Optionally assign different timeframes for higher-TF analysis.
Use the color cues and crossovers to spot momentum shifts and trend changes.
🪶 Notes
Works great on all assets (crypto, forex, stocks, indices).
Compatible with both light and dark themes.
Built with Pine Script v5 — no external dependencies.
Scientific Correlation Testing FrameworkScientific Correlation Testing Framework - Comprehensive Guide
Introduction to Correlation Analysis
What is Correlation?
Correlation is a statistical measure that describes the degree to which two assets move in relation to each other. Think of it like measuring how closely two dancers move together on a dance floor.
Perfect Positive Correlation (+1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync, same direction, same speed
Perfect Negative Correlation (-1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync but in opposite directions
Zero Correlation (0): The dancers move completely independently of each other
In financial markets, correlation helps us understand relationships between different assets, which is crucial for:
Portfolio diversification
Risk management
Pairs trading strategies
Hedging positions
Market analysis
Why This Script is Special
This script goes beyond simple correlation calculations by providing:
Two different correlation methods (Pearson and Spearman)
Statistical significance testing to ensure results are meaningful
Rolling correlation analysis to track how relationships change over time
Visual representation for easy interpretation
Comprehensive statistics table with detailed metrics
Deep Dive into the Script's Components
1. Input Parameters Explained-
Symbol Selection:
This allows you to select the second asset to compare with the chart's primary asset
Default is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), but you can change this to any symbol
Example: If you're viewing a Bitcoin chart, you might set this to "NASDAQ:TSLA" to see if Bitcoin and Tesla are correlated
Correlation Window (60): This is the number of periods used to calculate the main correlation
Larger values (e.g., 100-500) provide more stable, long-term correlation measures
Smaller values (e.g., 10-50) are more responsive to recent price movements
60 is a good balance for most daily charts (about 3 months of trading days)
Rolling Correlation Window (20): A shorter window to detect recent changes in correlation
This helps identify when the relationship between assets is strengthening or weakening
Default of 20 is roughly one month of trading days
Return Type: This determines how price changes are calculated
Simple Returns: (Today's Price - Yesterday's Price) / Yesterday's Price
Easy to understand: "The asset went up 2% today"
Log Returns: Natural logarithm of (Today's Price / Yesterday's Price)
More mathematically elegant for statistical analysis
Better for time-additive properties (returns over multiple periods)
Less sensitive to extreme values.
Confidence Level (95%): This determines how certain we want to be about our results
95% confidence means we accept a 5% chance of being wrong (false positive)
Higher confidence (e.g., 99%) makes the test more strict
Lower confidence (e.g., 90%) makes the test more lenient
95% is the standard in most scientific research
Show Statistical Significance: When enabled, the script will test if the correlation is statistically significant or just due to random chance.
Display options control what you see on the chart:
Show Pearson/Spearman/Rolling Correlation: Toggle each correlation type on/off
Show Scatter Plot: Displays a scatter plot of returns (limited to recent points to avoid performance issues)
Show Statistical Tests: Enables the detailed statistics table
Table Text Size: Adjusts the size of text in the statistics table
2.Functions explained-
calcReturns():
This function calculates price returns based on your selected method:
Log Returns:
Formula: ln(Price_t / Price_t-1)
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the log return is ln(101/100) = ln(1.01) ≈ 0.00995 or 0.995%
Benefits: More symmetric, time-additive, and better for statistical modeling
Simple Returns:
Formula: (Price_t - Price_t-1) / Price_t-1
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the simple return is (101-100)/100 = 0.01 or 1%
Benefits: More intuitive and easier to understand
rankArray():
This function calculates the rank of each value in an array, which is used for Spearman correlation:
How ranking works:
The smallest value gets rank 1
The second smallest gets rank 2, and so on
For ties (equal values), they get the average of their ranks
Example: For values
Sorted:
Ranks: (the two 2s tie for ranks 1 and 2, so they both get 1.5)
Why this matters: Spearman correlation uses ranks instead of actual values, making it less sensitive to outliers and non-linear relationships.
pearsonCorr():
This function calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient:
Mathematical Formula:
r = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / √
Where x and y are the two variables, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables
Values range from -1 (perfect negative linear relationship) to +1 (perfect positive linear relationship)
0 indicates no linear relationship
Example:
If two stocks have a Pearson correlation of 0.8, they have a strong positive linear relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up in a fairly consistent proportion
spearmanCorr():
This function calculates the Spearman rank correlation:
How it works:
Convert each value in both datasets to its rank
Calculate the Pearson correlation on the ranks instead of the original values
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the monotonic relationship between two variables
A monotonic relationship is one where as one variable increases, the other either consistently increases or decreases
It doesn't require the relationship to be linear
When to use it instead of Pearson:
When the relationship is monotonic but not linear
When there are significant outliers in the data
When the data is ordinal (ranked) rather than interval/ratio
Example:
If two stocks have a Spearman correlation of 0.7, they have a strong positive monotonic relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up, but not necessarily in a straight-line relationship
tStatistic():
This function calculates the t-statistic for correlation:
Mathematical Formula: t = r × √((n-2)/(1-r²))
Where r is the correlation coefficient and n is the sample size
What it measures:
How many standard errors the correlation is away from zero
Used to test the null hypothesis that the true correlation is zero
Interpretation:
Larger absolute t-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Generally, a t-value greater than 2 (in absolute terms) is considered statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
criticalT() and pValue():
These functions provide approximations for statistical significance testing:
criticalT():
Returns the critical t-value for a given degrees of freedom (df) and significance level
The critical value is the threshold that the t-statistic must exceed to be considered statistically significant
Uses approximations since Pine Script doesn't have built-in statistical distribution functions
pValue():
Estimates the p-value for a given t-statistic and degrees of freedom
The p-value is the probability of observing a correlation as strong as the one calculated, assuming the true correlation is zero
Smaller p-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Standard interpretation:
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence (marked with **)
p < 0.05: Strong evidence (marked with *)
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence, not statistically significant
stdev():
This function calculates the standard deviation of a dataset:
Mathematical Formula: σ = √(Σ(x-μ)²/(n-1))
Where x is each value, μ is the mean, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values
A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean
A high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range
Why it matters for correlation:
Standard deviation is used in calculating the correlation coefficient
It also provides information about the volatility of each asset's returns
Comparing standard deviations helps understand the relative riskiness of the two assets.
3.Getting Price Data-
price1: The closing price of the primary asset (the chart you're viewing)
price2: The closing price of the secondary asset (the one you selected in the input parameters)
Returns are used instead of raw prices because:
Returns are typically stationary (mean and variance stay constant over time)
Returns normalize for price levels, allowing comparison between assets of different values
Returns represent what investors actually care about: percentage changes in value
4.Information Table-
Creates a table to display statistics
Only shows on the last bar to avoid performance issues
Positioned in the top right of the chart
Has 2 columns and 15 rows
Populating the Table
The script then populates the table with various statistics:
Header Row: "Metric" and "Value"
Sample Information: Sample size and return type
Pearson Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Spearman Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Rolling Correlation: Current value
Standard Deviations: For both assets
Interpretation: Text description of the correlation strength
The table uses color coding to highlight important information:
Green for significant positive results
Red for significant negative results
Yellow for borderline significance
Color-coded headers for each section
=> Practical Applications and Interpretation
How to Interpret the Results
Correlation Strength
0.0 to 0.3 (or 0.0 to -0.3): Weak or no correlation
The assets move mostly independently of each other
Good for diversification purposes
0.3 to 0.7 (or -0.3 to -0.7): Moderate correlation
The assets show some tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
May be useful for certain trading strategies but not extremely reliable
0.7 to 1.0 (or -0.7 to -1.0): Strong correlation
The assets show a strong tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
Can be useful for pairs trading, hedging, or as a market indicator
Statistical Significance
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with ** in the table
Very unlikely to be due to random chance
p < 0.05: Strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with * in the table
Unlikely to be due to random chance
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence that the correlation is real
Not marked in the table
Could easily be due to random chance
Rolling Correlation
The rolling correlation shows how the relationship between assets changes over time
If the rolling correlation is much different from the long-term correlation, it suggests the relationship is changing
This can indicate:
A shift in market regime
Changing fundamentals of one or both assets
Temporary market dislocations that might present trading opportunities
Trading Applications
1. Portfolio Diversification
Goal: Reduce overall portfolio risk by combining assets that don't move together
Strategy: Look for assets with low or negative correlations
Example: If you hold tech stocks, you might add some utilities or bonds that have low correlation with tech
2. Pairs Trading
Goal: Profit from the relative price movements of two correlated assets
Strategy:
Find two assets with strong historical correlation
When their prices diverge (one goes up while the other goes down)
Buy the underperforming asset and short the outperforming asset
Close the positions when they converge back to their normal relationship
Example: If Coca-Cola and Pepsi are highly correlated but Coca-Cola drops while Pepsi rises, you might buy Coca-Cola and short Pepsi
3. Hedging
Goal: Reduce risk by taking an offsetting position in a negatively correlated asset
Strategy: Find assets that tend to move in opposite directions
Example: If you hold a portfolio of stocks, you might buy some gold or government bonds that tend to rise when stocks fall
4. Market Analysis
Goal: Understand market dynamics and interrelationships
Strategy: Analyze correlations between different sectors or asset classes
Example:
If tech stocks and semiconductor stocks are highly correlated, movements in one might predict movements in the other
If the correlation between stocks and bonds changes, it might signal a shift in market expectations
5. Risk Management
Goal: Understand and manage portfolio risk
Strategy: Monitor correlations to identify when diversification benefits might be breaking down
Example: During market crises, many assets that normally have low correlations can become highly correlated (correlation convergence), reducing diversification benefits
Advanced Interpretation and Caveats
Correlation vs. Causation
Important Note: Correlation does not imply causation
Example: Ice cream sales and drowning incidents are correlated (both increase in summer), but one doesn't cause the other
Implication: Just because two assets move together doesn't mean one causes the other to move
Solution: Look for fundamental economic reasons why assets might be correlated
Non-Stationary Correlations
Problem: Correlations between assets can change over time
Causes:
Changing market conditions
Shifts in monetary policy
Structural changes in the economy
Changes in the underlying businesses
Solution: Use rolling correlations to monitor how relationships change over time
Outliers and Extreme Events
Problem: Extreme market events can distort correlation measurements
Example: During a market crash, many assets may move in the same direction regardless of their normal relationship
Solution:
Use Spearman correlation, which is less sensitive to outliers
Be cautious when interpreting correlations during extreme market conditions
Sample Size Considerations
Problem: Small sample sizes can produce unreliable correlation estimates
Rule of Thumb: Use at least 30 data points for a rough estimate, 60+ for more reliable results
Solution:
Use the default correlation length of 60 or higher
Be skeptical of correlations calculated with small samples
Timeframe Considerations
Problem: Correlations can vary across different timeframes
Example: Two assets might be positively correlated on a daily basis but negatively correlated on a weekly basis
Solution:
Test correlations on multiple timeframes
Use the timeframe that matches your trading horizon
Look-Ahead Bias
Problem: Using information that wouldn't have been available at the time of trading
Example: Calculating correlation using future data
Solution: This script avoids look-ahead bias by using only historical data
Best Practices for Using This Script
1. Appropriate Parameter Selection
Correlation Window:
For short-term trading: 20-50 periods
For medium-term analysis: 50-100 periods
For long-term analysis: 100-500 periods
Rolling Window:
Should be shorter than the main correlation window
Typically 1/3 to 1/2 of the main window
Return Type:
For most applications: Log Returns (better statistical properties)
For simplicity: Simple Returns (easier to interpret)
2. Validation and Testing
Out-of-Sample Testing:
Calculate correlations on one time period
Test if they hold in a different time period
Multiple Timeframes:
Check if correlations are consistent across different timeframes
Economic Rationale:
Ensure there's a logical reason why assets should be correlated
3. Monitoring and Maintenance
Regular Review:
Correlations can change, so review them regularly
Alerts:
Set up alerts for significant correlation changes
Documentation:
Keep notes on why certain assets are correlated and what might change that relationship
4. Integration with Other Analysis
Fundamental Analysis:
Combine correlation analysis with fundamental factors
Technical Analysis:
Use correlation analysis alongside technical indicators
Market Context:
Consider how market conditions might affect correlations
Conclusion
This Scientific Correlation Testing Framework provides a comprehensive tool for analyzing relationships between financial assets. By offering both Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, statistical significance testing, and rolling correlation analysis, it goes beyond simple correlation measures to provide deeper insights.
For beginners, this script might seem complex, but it's built on fundamental statistical concepts that become clearer with use. Start with the default settings and focus on interpreting the main correlation lines and the statistics table. As you become more comfortable, you can adjust the parameters and explore more advanced applications.
Remember that correlation analysis is just one tool in a trader's toolkit. It should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and with a clear understanding of its limitations. When used properly, it can provide valuable insights for portfolio construction, risk management, and pair trading strategy development.
MA Cloud + Linha Média🧠 Description of “MA Cloud + Average Line” Indicator
This Pine Script indicator combines multiple moving averages (MAs) into a dynamic visualization that helps traders identify market trends, momentum shifts, and trend strength. It creates a colored cloud between the fastest and slowest moving averages, and also plots an average line representing the mean of all active MAs.
⚙️ 1. Core Features
Multiple Moving Averages (MAs)
Supports up to four customizable moving averages (MA1, MA2, MA3, MA4).
Each MA can use different types:
SMA (Simple Moving Average)
EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
WMA (Weighted Moving Average)
VWMA (Volume-Weighted Moving Average)
RMA (Smoothed Moving Average)
Hull MA (Hull Moving Average)
LSMA (Least Squares Moving Average)
The trader can define each MA’s period, color, and choose whether it’s active or not.
Trend Color Coding
Each MA changes color based on its slope:
Green (or chosen “Up Color”) when rising
Red (or chosen “Down Color”) when falling
This gives instant visual feedback on short-term direction.
MA Cloud (Trend Zone)
When the “Cloud” is active, the area between the minimum and maximum of all active MAs is shaded.
The cloud changes color based on alignment:
🟩 Green Cloud – all MAs are aligned upward (strong bullish trend).
🟥 Red Cloud – all MAs are aligned downward (strong bearish trend).
⚪ Gray Cloud – mixed alignment (no clear trend / consolidation).
Average Line (Mean of All MAs)
Calculates the average of all active MAs and plots it as a central “mean” line.
Serves as a dynamic trend guide — when price is above it, the market tends to be bullish; below it, bearish.
The color of the line follows the current cloud color for consistency.
📈 2. How It Helps Identify Trends
This indicator provides multiple layers of trend confirmation:
Visual Element Interpretation Trend Insight
MA Slope Color Green (Up) / Red (Down) Short-term momentum direction
MA Cloud Color Green / Red / Gray Overall trend alignment across timeframes
Average Line Mean of all MAs Acts as a “trend equilibrium” line
Price vs. Average Line Above = Bullish / Below = Bearish Confirms trend bias
🔍 3. Example Use Cases
Trend Following
Enter long trades when all MAs are aligned (Cloud = Green) and price is above the average line.
Enter short trades when the Cloud is Red and price is below the average line.
Trend Strength Confirmation
The wider the distance between MAs (thicker cloud), the stronger the ongoing trend.
A narrowing cloud or color shift (green → gray → red) can warn of trend reversal or consolidation.
Dynamic Support and Resistance
The MA Cloud acts as a support zone in uptrends and resistance zone in downtrends.
Traders can use the edges of the cloud to identify possible pullback entry zones.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
By using fast MAs (e.g., 20/50) and slow MAs (100/200), traders can visualize short-term vs. long-term trend interaction, similar to “Golden Cross” and “Death Cross” setups.
🧩 4. How to Use It Practically
Step 1: Enable only the MAs you need (e.g., 20, 50, 200).
Step 2: Observe the cloud color:
🟩 Green → Favor long trades
🟥 Red → Favor short trades
⚪ Gray → Wait for confirmation
Step 3: Use the average line as a filter:
Trade only in the direction of the average line’s slope.
Step 4: Combine with volume, RSI, or price action to refine entries.
💬 Summary
Indicator Name: MA Cloud + Average Line
Purpose: Visual trend detection and confirmation
Best For: Swing and trend-following traders
Signals Provided:
Trend alignment (via color-coded cloud)
Momentum shifts (via MA color changes)
Dynamic support/resistance (via cloud zones)
Overall trend bias (via average line)
RRG Sector Snapshot RRG Sector Snapshot · Clear UI — User Guide
What this indicator does
Purpose: Visualize sector rotation by comparing each sector’s Relative Strength (RS-Ratio) and RS-Momentum versus a benchmark (e.g., VNINDEX).
Output: A quadrant map (table overlay) that positions each sector into one of four regimes:
LEADING (top-right): Strong and accelerating — leadership zone.
WEAKENING (bottom-right): Strong but decelerating — may be topping or consolidating.
LAGGING (bottom-left): Weak and decelerating — avoid unless mean-reverting.
IMPROVING (top-left): Weak but accelerating — candidates for next rotation into leadership.
How it works (under the hood)
X-axis (Strength): RS-Ratio = Sector Close / Benchmark Close, then normalized with a Z-Score over a lookback (normLen).
Y-axis (Momentum): Linear-regression slope of RS-Ratio over rsLen, then normalized with a Z-Score (normLen).
Mapping to grid: Both axes are Z-Scores scaled to a square grid (rrgSize × rrgSize) using a zoom factor (rrgScale). The center is neutral (0,0). Momentum increases upward (Y=0 is the top row in the table).
Quick start (3 minutes)
Add to chart:
TradingView → Pine Editor → paste the script → Save → Add to chart.
Set a benchmark: In inputs, choose Benchmark (X axis) — default INDEX:VNINDEX. Use VN30 or another index if it better reflects your universe.
Load sectors: Fill S1..S10 with sector or index symbols you track (up to 10). Set Slots to Use to the number you actually use.
Adjust view:
rrgSize (grid cells): 18–24 is a good starting point.
rrgScale (zoom): 2.5–3.5 typically; decrease to “zoom out” (points cluster near center), increase to “zoom in” (points spread to edges).
Read the map:
Prioritize sectors in LEADING; shortlist sectors in IMPROVING (could rotate into LEADING).
WEAKENING often marks late-cycle strength; LAGGING is typically avoid.
Inputs — what they do and how to change them
General
Analysis TF: Timeframe used to compute RRG (can be different from chart’s TF). Daily for swing, 1H/4H for tactical rotation, Weekly for macro view.
Benchmark (X axis): The index used for RS baseline (e.g., INDEX:VNINDEX, INDEX:VN30, major ETFs, or a custom composite).
RRG Calculation
RS Lookback (rsLen): Bars used for slope of RS (momentum).
Daily: 30–60 (default 40)
Intraday (1H/4H): 20–40
Weekly: 26–52
Normalization Lookback (Z-Score) (normLen): Window for Z-Score on both axes.
Daily: 80–120 (default 100)
Intraday: 40–80
Weekly: 52–104
Tip: Shorter lookbacks = more responsive but noisier; longer = smoother but slower.
RRG HUD (Table)
Show RRG Snapshot (rrgEnable): Toggle the table on/off.
Position (rrgPos): top_right | top_left | bottom_right | bottom_left.
Grid Size (Cells) (rrgSize): Table dimensions (N×N). Larger = more resolution but takes more space.
Z-Scale (Zoom) (rrgScale): Maps Z-Scores to the grid.
Smaller (2.0–2.5): Zoom out (more points near center).
Larger (3.5–4.0): Zoom in (emphasize outliers).
Appearance
Tag length (tagLen): Characters per sector tag. Use 4–6 for clarity.
Text size (textSizeOp): Tiny | Small | Normal | Large. Use Large for presentation screens or dense lists.
Axis thickness (axisThick): 1 = thin axis; 2 = thicker double-strip axis.
Quadrant alpha (bgAlpha): Transparency of quadrant backgrounds. 80–90 makes text pop.
Sectors (Max 10)
Slots to Use (sectorSlots): How many sector slots are active (≤10).
S1..S10: Each slot is a symbol (index, sector index, or ETF). Replace defaults to fit your market/universe.
How to interpret the map
Quadrants:
Leading (top-right): Relative strength above average and improving — trend-follow candidates.
Weakening (bottom-right): Still strong but momentum cooling — watch for distribution or pauses.
Lagging (bottom-left): Underperforming and still losing momentum — avoid unless doing mean-reversion.
Improving (top-left): Early recovery — candidates to transition into Leading if the move persists.
Overlapping sectors in one cell: The indicator shows “TAG +n” where TAG is the first tag, +n is the number of additional sectors sharing that cell. If many overlap:
Increase rrgSize, or
Decrease rrgScale to zoom out, or
Reduce Slots to Use to a smaller selection.
Suggested workflows
Daily swing
Benchmark: VNINDEX or VN30
rsLen 40–60, normLen 100–120, rrgSize 18–24, rrgScale 2.5–3.5
Routine:
Identify Leading sectors (top-right).
Spot Improving sectors near the midline moving toward top-right.
Confirm with price/volume/breakout on sector charts or top components.
Intraday (1H/4H) tactical
rsLen 20–40, normLen 60–100, rrgScale 2.0–3.0
Expect faster rotations and more noise; tighten filters with your own entry rules.
Weekly (macro rotation)
rsLen 26–52, normLen 52–104, rrgScale 3.0–4.0
Great for portfolio tilts and sector allocation.
Tuning tips
If everything clusters near center: Increase rrgScale (zoom in) or reduce normLen (more contrast).
If points are too spread: Decrease rrgScale (zoom out) or increase normLen (smoother normalization).
If the table is too big/small: Change rrgSize (cells).
If tags are hard to read: Increase textSizeOp to Large, tagLen to 5–6, and consider bgAlpha ~80–85.
Troubleshooting
No table on chart:
Ensure Show RRG Snapshot is enabled.
Change Position to a different corner.
Reduce Grid Size if the table exceeds the chart area.
Many sectors “missing”:
They’re likely overlapping in the same cell; the cell will show “TAG +n”.
Increase rrgSize, decrease rrgScale, or reduce Slots to Use.
Early bars show nothing:
You need enough data for rsLen and normLen. Scroll back or reduce lookbacks temporarily.
Best practices
Use RRG for context and rotation scouting, then confirm with your execution tools (trend structure, breakouts, volume, risk metrics).
Benchmark selection matters. If most of your watchlist tracks VN30, use INDEX:VN30 as the benchmark to get a truer relative read.
Revisit settings per timeframe. Intraday needs more responsiveness (shorter lookbacks, smaller Z-Scale); weekly needs stability (longer lookbacks, larger Z-Scale).
FAQ
Can I use ETFs or custom indices as sectors? Yes. Any symbol supported by TradingView works.
Can I track individual stocks instead of sectors? Yes (up to 10); just replace the S1..S10 symbols.
Why Z-Score? It standardizes each axis to “how unusual” the value is versus its own history — more robust than raw ratios across different scales.
[ i]
How to Set Up (Your Market Template)
This is the most important part for customizing the indicator to any market.
Step 1: Choose Your TF & Benchmark
Open the indicator's Settings.
Analysis TF: Set the timeframe you want to analyze (e.g., D for medium-term, W for long-term).
Benchmark (Trục X): This is the index you want to compare against.
Vietnamese Market: Leave the default INDEX:VNINDEX.
US Market: Change to SP:SPX or NASDAQ:NDX.
Crypto Market: Change to TOTAL (entire market cap) or BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance).
Step 2: Input Your "Universe" (The 10 Slots)
This is where you decide what to track. You have 10 slots (S1 to S10).
For Vietnamese Sectors (Default):
Leave the default sector codes like INDEX:VNFINLEAD (Finance), INDEX:VNREAL (Real Estate), INDEX:VNIND (Industry), etc.
Template for Crypto "Sectors":
S1: BTC.D
S2: ETH.D
S3: TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap)
S4: TOTAL.DEFI (DeFi)
S5: CRYPTOCAP:GAME (GameFi)
...and so on.
Template for Blue Chip Stocks:
Benchmark: INDEX:VN30
S1: HOSE:FPT
S2: HOSE:VCB
S3: HOSE:HPG
S4: HOSE:MWG
...and so on.
Template for Commodities:
Benchmark: TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index)
S1: TVC:GOLD
S2: TVC:USOIL
S3: TVC:SILVER
S4: COMEX:HG1! (Copper)
...and so on.
Step 3: Fine-Tuning
RS Lookback: A larger number (e.g., 100) gives a smoother, long-term view. A smaller number (e.g., 20) is more sensitive to short-term changes.
Z-Scale (Zoom): This is the "magnification" of the map.
If all your sectors are crowded in the middle, increase this number (e.g., 4.0) to "zoom in."
If your sectors are stuck on the edges, decrease this number (e.g., 2.0) to "zoom out."
Tag length: How many letters to display for the ticker (e.g., 4 will show VNFI).
My Rate Of Change. Buy equities if crosses up from 0, Sell equities and switch to commodities like Gold if crosses down 40
Advanced Psychological Levels with Dynamic Spacing═══════════════════════════════════════
ADVANCED PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS WITH DYNAMIC SPACING
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A comprehensive psychological price level indicator that automatically identifies and displays round number levels across multiple timeframes. Features dynamic ATR-based spacing, smart crypto detection, distance tracking, and customizable alert system.
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WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES
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This indicator automatically draws psychological price levels (round numbers) that often act as support and resistance:
- Dynamic ATR-Based Spacing - Adapts level spacing to market volatility
- Multiple Level Types - Major (250 pip), Standard (100 pip), Mid, and Intraday levels
- Smart Asset Detection - Automatically adjusts for Forex, Crypto, Indices, and CFDs
- Crypto Price Adaptation - Intelligent level spacing based on cryptocurrency price magnitude
- Distance Information Table - Real-time percentage distance to nearest levels
- Combined Level Labels - Clear identification when multiple level types coincide
- Performance Optimized - Configurable visible range and label limits
- Comprehensive Alerts - Notifications when price crosses any level type
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HOW IT WORKS
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PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS CONCEPT:
Psychological levels are round numbers where traders tend to place orders, creating natural support and resistance zones. These include:
- Forex: 1.0000, 1.0100, 1.0050 (pips)
- Crypto: $100, $1,000, $10,000 (whole numbers)
- Indices: 10,000, 10,500, 11,000 (points)
Why They Matter:
- Traders naturally gravitate to round numbers
- Stop losses cluster at these levels
- Take profit orders concentrate here
- Institutional algorithmic trading often targets these levels
DYNAMIC ATR-BASED SPACING:
Traditional Method:
- Fixed spacing regardless of volatility
- May be too tight in volatile markets
- May be too wide in quiet markets
Dynamic Method (Recommended):
- Uses ATR (Average True Range) to measure volatility
- Automatically adjusts level spacing
- Tighter levels in low volatility
- Wider levels in high volatility
Calculation:
1. Calculate ATR over specified period (default: 14)
2. Multiply by ATR multiplier (default: 2.0)
3. Round to nearest psychological level
4. Generate levels at dynamic intervals
Benefits:
- Adapts to market conditions
- More relevant levels in all volatility regimes
- Reduces clutter in trending markets
- Provides more detail in ranging markets
LEVEL TYPES:
Major Levels (250 pip/point):
- Highest significance
- Primary support/resistance zones
- Color: Red (default)
- Style: Solid lines
- Spacing: 2.5x standard step
Standard Levels (100 pip/point):
- Secondary importance
- Common psychological barriers
- Color: Blue (default)
- Style: Dashed lines
- Spacing: Standard step
Mid Levels (50% between major):
- Optional intermediate levels
- Halfway between major levels
- Color: Gray (default)
- Style: Dotted lines
- Usage: Additional confluence points
Intraday Levels (sub-100 pip):
- For intraday traders
- Fine-grained precision
- Color: Yellow (default)
- Style: Dotted lines
- Only shown on intraday timeframes
SMART ASSET DETECTION:
Forex Pairs:
- Detects major currency pairs automatically
- Uses pip-based calculations
- Standard: 100 pips (0.0100)
- Major: 250 pips (0.0250)
- Intraday: 20, 50, 80 pip subdivisions
Cryptocurrencies:
- Automatic price magnitude detection
- Adaptive spacing based on price:
* Under $0.10: Levels at $0.01, $0.05
* $0.10-$1: Levels at $0.10, $0.50
* $1-$10: Levels at $1, $5
* $10-$100: Levels at $10, $50
* $100-$1,000: Levels at $100, $500
* $1,000-$10,000: Levels at $1,000, $5,000
* Over $10,000: Levels at $5,000, $10,000
Indices & CFDs:
- Fixed point-based system
- Major: 500 point intervals (with 250 sub-levels)
- Standard: 100 point intervals
- Suitable for stock indices like SPX, NASDAQ
COMBINED LEVEL LABELS:
When multiple level types coincide at the same price:
- Single line drawn (highest priority color)
- Combined label shows all types
- Priority: Major > Standard > Mid > Intraday
Example Label Formats:
- "1.1000 Major" - Major level only
- "1.1000 Std + Major" - Both standard and major
- "50000 Intra + Mid + Std" - Three levels coincide
Benefits:
- Cleaner chart appearance
- Clear identification of confluence
- Reduced visual clutter
- Easy to spot high-importance levels
DISTANCE INFORMATION TABLE:
Real-time tracking of nearest levels:
Table Contents:
- Nearest major level above (price and % distance)
- Nearest standard level above (price and % distance)
- Nearest standard level below (price and % distance)
Display:
- Top right corner (configurable)
- Color-coded by level type
- Real-time percentage calculations
- Helpful for position management
Usage:
- Identify proximity to key levels
- Set realistic profit targets
- Gauge potential move magnitude
- Monitor approaching resistance/support
ALERT SYSTEM:
Comprehensive crossing alerts:
Alert Types:
- Major Level Crosses
- Standard Level Crosses
- Intraday Level Crosses
Alert Modes:
- First Cross Only: Alert once when level is crossed
- All Crosses: Alert every time level is crossed
Alert Information:
- Level type crossed
- Specific price level
- Direction (above/below)
- One alert per bar to prevent spam
Configuration:
- Enable/disable by level type
- Choose alert frequency
- Customize for your trading style
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HOW TO USE
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INITIAL SETUP:
General Settings:
1. Enable "Use Dynamic ATR-Based Spacing" (recommended)
2. Set ATR Period (14 is standard)
3. Adjust ATR Multiplier (2.0 is balanced)
Visibility Settings:
1. Set Visible Range % (10% recommended for clarity)
2. Adjust Label Offset for readability
3. Configure performance limits if needed
Level Selection:
1. Enable/disable level types based on trading style
2. Adjust line counts for each type
3. Choose line styles and colors for visibility
TRADING STRATEGIES:
Breakout Trading:
1. Wait for price to approach major or standard level
2. Monitor for consolidation near level
3. Enter on confirmed break above/beyond level
4. Stop loss just beyond the broken level
5. Target: Next major or standard level
Rejection Trading:
1. Identify major psychological level
2. Wait for price to test the level
3. Look for rejection signals (wicks, bearish/bullish candles)
4. Enter in direction of rejection
5. Stop beyond the level
6. Target: Previous level or mid-level
Range Trading:
1. Identify range between two major levels
2. Buy at lower psychological level
3. Sell at upper psychological level
4. Use standard and mid-levels for position management
5. Exit if major level breaks with volume
Confluence Trading:
1. Look for combined levels (Std + Major)
2. These represent high-probability zones
3. Use as primary support/resistance
4. Increase position size at confluence
5. Expect stronger reactions at these levels
Session-Based Trading:
1. Note opening level at session start (Asian/London/NY)
2. Trade breakouts of major levels during high-volume sessions
3. London/NY sessions: More likely to break levels
4. Asian session: More likely to respect levels (range trading)
RISK MANAGEMENT WITH PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS:
Stop Loss Placement:
- Place stops just beyond psychological levels
- Add buffer (5-10 pips for forex)
- Avoid exact round numbers (stop hunting risk)
- Use previous major level as maximum stop
Take Profit Strategy:
- First target: Next standard level (partial profit)
- Second target: Next major level (remaining position)
- Trail stops to breakeven at first target
- Use distance table to calculate risk/reward
Position Sizing:
- Larger positions at major levels (higher probability)
- Smaller positions at intraday levels (lower probability)
- Scale in at standard levels between major levels
- Reduce size when multiple levels are close together
TIMEFRAME CONSIDERATIONS:
Higher Timeframes (4H, Daily, Weekly):
- Focus on Major and Standard levels only
- Disable Intraday and Mid levels
- Wider level spacing expected
- Use for swing trading and position trading
Lower Timeframes (5m, 15m, 1H):
- Enable all level types
- Use Intraday levels for precision
- Tighter level spacing acceptable
- Good for day trading and scalping
Multi-Timeframe Approach:
- Identify major levels on Daily/4H charts
- Refine entries using 15m/1H intraday levels
- Trade in direction of higher timeframe bias
- Use lower timeframe levels for position management
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CONFIGURATION GUIDE
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GENERAL SETTINGS:
Dynamic ATR-Based Spacing:
- Enabled: Recommended for most markets
- Disabled: Fixed psychological levels
- ATR Period: 14 (standard), 10 (responsive), 20 (smooth)
- ATR Multiplier: 1.0-5.0 (2.0 is balanced)
VISIBILITY SETTINGS:
Visible Range %:
- 5%: Very tight range, minimal clutter
- 10%: Balanced view (recommended)
- 20%: Wide range, more context
- 50%: Maximum range, all levels visible
Label Offset:
- 10-20 bars: Close to current price
- 30-50 bars: Moderate distance
- 50-100 bars: Far from price action
Performance Limits:
- Max Historical Bars: Reduce if indicator loads slowly
- Max Labels: Reduce for cleaner chart (20-30 recommended)
LEVEL CUSTOMIZATION:
Line Count:
- Lower (1-3): Cleaner chart, fewer levels
- Medium (4-6): Balanced view
- Higher (7-10): More context, busier chart
Line Styles:
- Solid: High importance, easy to see
- Dashed: Medium importance, clear but subtle
- Dotted: Low importance, minimal visual weight
Colors:
- Use contrasting colors for different level types
- Red/Blue/Yellow default works well
- Adjust based on chart background and personal preference
DISTANCE TABLE:
Position:
- Top Right: Doesn't interfere with price action
- Top Left: Good for right-side price scale
- Bottom positions: Less common but available
Colors:
- Default (white text, dark background) works for most charts
- Match your chart theme for consistency
- Ensure text is readable against background
ALERT CONFIGURATION:
Alert by Level Type:
- Major: Most important, fewer false signals
- Standard: Balance of frequency and importance
- Intraday: Many signals, best for active traders
Alert Frequency:
- First Cross Only: Cleaner, less noise (recommended for swing trading)
- All Crosses: Every touch, good for scalping
Alert Setup in TradingView:
1. Configure desired alert types in indicator settings
2. Right-click chart → Add Alert
3. Select this indicator
4. Choose "Any alert() function call"
5. Set delivery method (mobile, email, webhook)
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ASSET-SPECIFIC TIPS
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FOREX (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.):
- Major levels at x.x000, x.x500
- Standard levels at x.xx00
- Intraday levels at 20/50/80 pips
- Most effective during London/NY sessions
- Watch for "figure" levels (1.0000, 1.1000)
CRYPTOCURRENCIES (BTC, ETH, etc.):
- Enable dynamic spacing for volatile markets
- Levels adjust automatically based on price
- Watch major $1,000 increments for BTC
- $100 levels important for ETH
- Smaller caps: Use standard levels
- High volatility: Increase ATR multiplier to 3.0
STOCK INDICES (SPX, NASDAQ, etc.):
- 100-point levels most important
- 500-point levels for major S/R
- 50-point mid-levels for refinement
- Watch end-of-day for level reactions
- Futures often lead spot on level breaks
GOLD/COMMODITIES:
- Major levels at $50 increments ($1,900, $1,950)
- Standard levels at $10 increments
- Very reactive to psychological levels
- Watch for false breaks during low volume
- Best reactions during active trading hours
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BEST PRACTICES
───────────────────────────────────────
Chart Setup:
- Use clean price action charts
- Avoid too many indicators
- Ensure psychological levels are clearly visible
- Match colors to your chart theme
Level Selection:
- Start with Major and Standard levels only
- Add Mid and Intraday as needed
- Less is more - avoid chart clutter
- Adjust based on timeframe
Combining with Other Tools:
- Volume profile for confluence
- Trendlines intersecting psychological levels
- Moving averages near round numbers
- Fibonacci levels coinciding with psychological levels
Common Mistakes to Avoid:
- Trading every level touch (be selective)
- Ignoring volume confirmation
- Setting stops exactly at levels (stop hunting)
- Forgetting to adjust for different assets
- Over-relying on levels without price action confirmation
Performance Optimization:
- Reduce visible range for faster loading
- Lower max historical bars on lower timeframes
- Limit labels to 30-50 for clarity
- Disable unused level types
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EDUCATIONAL DISCLAIMER
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This indicator identifies psychological price levels based on round numbers that tend to act as support and resistance. The methodology includes:
- Round number detection algorithms
- ATR-based dynamic spacing calculations
- Asset-specific level determination
- Distance percentage calculations
Psychological levels are a recognized concept in technical analysis, studied by traders and institutions. However, they do not guarantee price reactions and should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy including proper risk management, volume analysis, and price action confirmation.
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USAGE DISCLAIMER
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This tool is for educational and analytical purposes. Psychological levels can act as support or resistance but price reactions are not guaranteed. Dynamic spacing may generate different levels in different market conditions. Always conduct independent analysis, use proper risk management, and never risk capital you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
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CREDITS & ATTRIBUTION
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Original Concept: Sonar Lab
Quantum Rotational Field MappingQuantum Rotational Field Mapping (QRFM):
Phase Coherence Detection Through Complex-Plane Oscillator Analysis
Quantum Rotational Field Mapping applies complex-plane mathematics and phase-space analysis to oscillator ensembles, identifying high-probability trend ignition points by measuring when multiple independent oscillators achieve phase coherence. Unlike traditional multi-oscillator approaches that simply stack indicators or use boolean AND/OR logic, this system converts each oscillator into a rotating phasor (vector) in the complex plane and calculates the Coherence Index (CI) —a mathematical measure of how tightly aligned the ensemble has become—then generates signals only when alignment, phase direction, and pairwise entanglement all converge.
The indicator combines three mathematical frameworks: phasor representation using analytic signal theory to extract phase and amplitude from each oscillator, coherence measurement using vector summation in the complex plane to quantify group alignment, and entanglement analysis that calculates pairwise phase agreement across all oscillator combinations. This creates a multi-dimensional confirmation system that distinguishes between random oscillator noise and genuine regime transitions.
What Makes This Original
Complex-Plane Phasor Framework
This indicator implements classical signal processing mathematics adapted for market oscillators. Each oscillator—whether RSI, MACD, Stochastic, CCI, Williams %R, MFI, ROC, or TSI—is first normalized to a common scale, then converted into a complex-plane representation using an in-phase (I) and quadrature (Q) component. The in-phase component is the oscillator value itself, while the quadrature component is calculated as the first difference (derivative proxy), creating a velocity-aware representation.
From these components, the system extracts:
Phase (φ) : Calculated as φ = atan2(Q, I), representing the oscillator's position in its cycle (mapped to -180° to +180°)
Amplitude (A) : Calculated as A = √(I² + Q²), representing the oscillator's strength or conviction
This mathematical approach is fundamentally different from simply reading oscillator values. A phasor captures both where an oscillator is in its cycle (phase angle) and how strongly it's expressing that position (amplitude). Two oscillators can have the same value but be in opposite phases of their cycles—traditional analysis would see them as identical, while QRFM sees them as 180° out of phase (contradictory).
Coherence Index Calculation
The core innovation is the Coherence Index (CI) , borrowed from physics and signal processing. When you have N oscillators, each with phase φₙ, you can represent each as a unit vector in the complex plane: e^(iφₙ) = cos(φₙ) + i·sin(φₙ).
The CI measures what happens when you sum all these vectors:
Resultant Vector : R = Σ e^(iφₙ) = Σ cos(φₙ) + i·Σ sin(φₙ)
Coherence Index : CI = |R| / N
Where |R| is the magnitude of the resultant vector and N is the number of active oscillators.
The CI ranges from 0 to 1:
CI = 1.0 : Perfect coherence—all oscillators have identical phase angles, vectors point in the same direction, creating maximum constructive interference
CI = 0.0 : Complete decoherence—oscillators are randomly distributed around the circle, vectors cancel out through destructive interference
0 < CI < 1 : Partial alignment—some clustering with some scatter
This is not a simple average or correlation. The CI captures phase synchronization across the entire ensemble simultaneously. When oscillators phase-lock (align their cycles), the CI spikes regardless of their individual values. This makes it sensitive to regime transitions that traditional indicators miss.
Dominant Phase and Direction Detection
Beyond measuring alignment strength, the system calculates the dominant phase of the ensemble—the direction the resultant vector points:
Dominant Phase : φ_dom = atan2(Σ sin(φₙ), Σ cos(φₙ))
This gives the "average direction" of all oscillator phases, mapped to -180° to +180°:
+90° to -90° (right half-plane): Bullish phase dominance
+90° to +180° or -90° to -180° (left half-plane): Bearish phase dominance
The combination of CI magnitude (coherence strength) and dominant phase angle (directional bias) creates a two-dimensional signal space. High CI alone is insufficient—you need high CI plus dominant phase pointing in a tradeable direction. This dual requirement is what separates QRFM from simple oscillator averaging.
Entanglement Matrix and Pairwise Coherence
While the CI measures global alignment, the entanglement matrix measures local pairwise relationships. For every pair of oscillators (i, j), the system calculates:
E(i,j) = |cos(φᵢ - φⱼ)|
This represents the phase agreement between oscillators i and j:
E = 1.0 : Oscillators are in-phase (0° or 360° apart)
E = 0.0 : Oscillators are in quadrature (90° apart, orthogonal)
E between 0 and 1 : Varying degrees of alignment
The system counts how many oscillator pairs exceed a user-defined entanglement threshold (e.g., 0.7). This entangled pairs count serves as a confirmation filter: signals require not just high global CI, but also a minimum number of strong pairwise agreements. This prevents false ignitions where CI is high but driven by only two oscillators while the rest remain scattered.
The entanglement matrix creates an N×N symmetric matrix that can be visualized as a web—when many cells are bright (high E values), the ensemble is highly interconnected. When cells are dark, oscillators are moving independently.
Phase-Lock Tolerance Mechanism
A complementary confirmation layer is the phase-lock detector . This calculates the maximum phase spread across all oscillators:
For all pairs (i,j), compute angular distance: Δφ = |φᵢ - φⱼ|, wrapping at 180°
Max Spread = maximum Δφ across all pairs
If max spread < user threshold (e.g., 35°), the ensemble is considered phase-locked —all oscillators are within a narrow angular band.
This differs from entanglement: entanglement measures pairwise cosine similarity (magnitude of alignment), while phase-lock measures maximum angular deviation (tightness of clustering). Both must be satisfied for the highest-conviction signals.
Multi-Layer Visual Architecture
QRFM includes six visual components that represent the same underlying mathematics from different perspectives:
Circular Orbit Plot : A polar coordinate grid showing each oscillator as a vector from origin to perimeter. Angle = phase, radius = amplitude. This is a real-time snapshot of the complex plane. When vectors converge (point in similar directions), coherence is high. When scattered randomly, coherence is low. Users can see phase alignment forming before CI numerically confirms it.
Phase-Time Heat Map : A 2D matrix with rows = oscillators and columns = time bins. Each cell is colored by the oscillator's phase at that time (using a gradient where color hue maps to angle). Horizontal color bands indicate sustained phase alignment over time. Vertical color bands show moments when all oscillators shared the same phase (ignition points). This provides historical pattern recognition.
Entanglement Web Matrix : An N×N grid showing E(i,j) for all pairs. Cells are colored by entanglement strength—bright yellow/gold for high E, dark gray for low E. This reveals which oscillators are driving coherence and which are lagging. For example, if RSI and MACD show high E but Stochastic shows low E with everything, Stochastic is the outlier.
Quantum Field Cloud : A background color overlay on the price chart. Color (green = bullish, red = bearish) is determined by dominant phase. Opacity is determined by CI—high CI creates dense, opaque cloud; low CI creates faint, nearly invisible cloud. This gives an atmospheric "feel" for regime strength without looking at numbers.
Phase Spiral : A smoothed plot of dominant phase over recent history, displayed as a curve that wraps around price. When the spiral is tight and rotating steadily, the ensemble is in coherent rotation (trending). When the spiral is loose or erratic, coherence is breaking down.
Dashboard : A table showing real-time metrics: CI (as percentage), dominant phase (in degrees with directional arrow), field strength (CI × average amplitude), entangled pairs count, phase-lock status (locked/unlocked), quantum state classification ("Ignition", "Coherent", "Collapse", "Chaos"), and collapse risk (recent CI change normalized to 0-100%).
Each component is independently toggleable, allowing users to customize their workspace. The orbit plot is the most essential—it provides intuitive, visual feedback on phase alignment that no numerical dashboard can match.
Core Components and How They Work Together
1. Oscillator Normalization Engine
The foundation is creating a common measurement scale. QRFM supports eight oscillators:
RSI : Normalized from to using overbought/oversold levels (70, 30) as anchors
MACD Histogram : Normalized by dividing by rolling standard deviation, then clamped to
Stochastic %K : Normalized from using (80, 20) anchors
CCI : Divided by 200 (typical extreme level), clamped to
Williams %R : Normalized from using (-20, -80) anchors
MFI : Normalized from using (80, 20) anchors
ROC : Divided by 10, clamped to
TSI : Divided by 50, clamped to
Each oscillator can be individually enabled/disabled. Only active oscillators contribute to phase calculations. The normalization removes scale differences—a reading of +0.8 means "strongly bullish" regardless of whether it came from RSI or TSI.
2. Analytic Signal Construction
For each active oscillator at each bar, the system constructs the analytic signal:
In-Phase (I) : The normalized oscillator value itself
Quadrature (Q) : The bar-to-bar change in the normalized value (first derivative approximation)
This creates a 2D representation: (I, Q). The phase is extracted as:
φ = atan2(Q, I) × (180 / π)
This maps the oscillator to a point on the unit circle. An oscillator at the same value but rising (positive Q) will have a different phase than one that is falling (negative Q). This velocity-awareness is critical—it distinguishes between "at resistance and stalling" versus "at resistance and breaking through."
The amplitude is extracted as:
A = √(I² + Q²)
This represents the distance from origin in the (I, Q) plane. High amplitude means the oscillator is far from neutral (strong conviction). Low amplitude means it's near zero (weak/transitional state).
3. Coherence Calculation Pipeline
For each bar (or every Nth bar if phase sample rate > 1 for performance):
Step 1 : Extract phase φₙ for each of the N active oscillators
Step 2 : Compute complex exponentials: Zₙ = e^(i·φₙ·π/180) = cos(φₙ·π/180) + i·sin(φₙ·π/180)
Step 3 : Sum the complex exponentials: R = Σ Zₙ = (Σ cos φₙ) + i·(Σ sin φₙ)
Step 4 : Calculate magnitude: |R| = √
Step 5 : Normalize by count: CI_raw = |R| / N
Step 6 : Smooth the CI: CI = SMA(CI_raw, smoothing_window)
The smoothing step (default 2 bars) removes single-bar noise spikes while preserving structural coherence changes. Users can adjust this to control reactivity versus stability.
The dominant phase is calculated as:
φ_dom = atan2(Σ sin φₙ, Σ cos φₙ) × (180 / π)
This is the angle of the resultant vector R in the complex plane.
4. Entanglement Matrix Construction
For all unique pairs of oscillators (i, j) where i < j:
Step 1 : Get phases φᵢ and φⱼ
Step 2 : Compute phase difference: Δφ = φᵢ - φⱼ (in radians)
Step 3 : Calculate entanglement: E(i,j) = |cos(Δφ)|
Step 4 : Store in symmetric matrix: matrix = matrix = E(i,j)
The matrix is then scanned: count how many E(i,j) values exceed the user-defined threshold (default 0.7). This count is the entangled pairs metric.
For visualization, the matrix is rendered as an N×N table where cell brightness maps to E(i,j) intensity.
5. Phase-Lock Detection
Step 1 : For all unique pairs (i, j), compute angular distance: Δφ = |φᵢ - φⱼ|
Step 2 : Wrap angles: if Δφ > 180°, set Δφ = 360° - Δφ
Step 3 : Find maximum: max_spread = max(Δφ) across all pairs
Step 4 : Compare to tolerance: phase_locked = (max_spread < tolerance)
If phase_locked is true, all oscillators are within the specified angular cone (e.g., 35°). This is a boolean confirmation filter.
6. Signal Generation Logic
Signals are generated through multi-layer confirmation:
Long Ignition Signal :
CI crosses above ignition threshold (e.g., 0.80)
AND dominant phase is in bullish range (-90° < φ_dom < +90°)
AND phase_locked = true
AND entangled_pairs >= minimum threshold (e.g., 4)
Short Ignition Signal :
CI crosses above ignition threshold
AND dominant phase is in bearish range (φ_dom < -90° OR φ_dom > +90°)
AND phase_locked = true
AND entangled_pairs >= minimum threshold
Collapse Signal :
CI at bar minus CI at current bar > collapse threshold (e.g., 0.55)
AND CI at bar was above 0.6 (must collapse from coherent state, not from already-low state)
These are strict conditions. A high CI alone does not generate a signal—dominant phase must align with direction, oscillators must be phase-locked, and sufficient pairwise entanglement must exist. This multi-factor gating dramatically reduces false signals compared to single-condition triggers.
Calculation Methodology
Phase 1: Oscillator Computation and Normalization
On each bar, the system calculates the raw values for all enabled oscillators using standard Pine Script functions:
RSI: ta.rsi(close, length)
MACD: ta.macd() returning histogram component
Stochastic: ta.stoch() smoothed with ta.sma()
CCI: ta.cci(close, length)
Williams %R: ta.wpr(length)
MFI: ta.mfi(hlc3, length)
ROC: ta.roc(close, length)
TSI: ta.tsi(close, short, long)
Each raw value is then passed through a normalization function:
normalize(value, overbought_level, oversold_level) = 2 × (value - oversold) / (overbought - oversold) - 1
This maps the oscillator's typical range to , where -1 represents extreme bearish, 0 represents neutral, and +1 represents extreme bullish.
For oscillators without fixed ranges (MACD, ROC, TSI), statistical normalization is used: divide by a rolling standard deviation or fixed divisor, then clamp to .
Phase 2: Phasor Extraction
For each normalized oscillator value val:
I = val (in-phase component)
Q = val - val (quadrature component, first difference)
Phase calculation:
phi_rad = atan2(Q, I)
phi_deg = phi_rad × (180 / π)
Amplitude calculation:
A = √(I² + Q²)
These values are stored in arrays: osc_phases and osc_amps for each oscillator n.
Phase 3: Complex Summation and Coherence
Initialize accumulators:
sum_cos = 0
sum_sin = 0
For each oscillator n = 0 to N-1:
phi_rad = osc_phases × (π / 180)
sum_cos += cos(phi_rad)
sum_sin += sin(phi_rad)
Resultant magnitude:
resultant_mag = √(sum_cos² + sum_sin²)
Coherence Index (raw):
CI_raw = resultant_mag / N
Smoothed CI:
CI = SMA(CI_raw, smoothing_window)
Dominant phase:
phi_dom_rad = atan2(sum_sin, sum_cos)
phi_dom_deg = phi_dom_rad × (180 / π)
Phase 4: Entanglement Matrix Population
For i = 0 to N-2:
For j = i+1 to N-1:
phi_i = osc_phases × (π / 180)
phi_j = osc_phases × (π / 180)
delta_phi = phi_i - phi_j
E = |cos(delta_phi)|
matrix_index_ij = i × N + j
matrix_index_ji = j × N + i
entangle_matrix = E
entangle_matrix = E
if E >= threshold:
entangled_pairs += 1
The matrix uses flat array storage with index mapping: index(row, col) = row × N + col.
Phase 5: Phase-Lock Check
max_spread = 0
For i = 0 to N-2:
For j = i+1 to N-1:
delta = |osc_phases - osc_phases |
if delta > 180:
delta = 360 - delta
max_spread = max(max_spread, delta)
phase_locked = (max_spread < tolerance)
Phase 6: Signal Evaluation
Ignition Long :
ignition_long = (CI crosses above threshold) AND
(phi_dom > -90 AND phi_dom < 90) AND
phase_locked AND
(entangled_pairs >= minimum)
Ignition Short :
ignition_short = (CI crosses above threshold) AND
(phi_dom < -90 OR phi_dom > 90) AND
phase_locked AND
(entangled_pairs >= minimum)
Collapse :
CI_prev = CI
collapse = (CI_prev - CI > collapse_threshold) AND (CI_prev > 0.6)
All signals are evaluated on bar close. The crossover and crossunder functions ensure signals fire only once when conditions transition from false to true.
Phase 7: Field Strength and Visualization Metrics
Average Amplitude :
avg_amp = (Σ osc_amps ) / N
Field Strength :
field_strength = CI × avg_amp
Collapse Risk (for dashboard):
collapse_risk = (CI - CI) / max(CI , 0.1)
collapse_risk_pct = clamp(collapse_risk × 100, 0, 100)
Quantum State Classification :
if (CI > threshold AND phase_locked):
state = "Ignition"
else if (CI > 0.6):
state = "Coherent"
else if (collapse):
state = "Collapse"
else:
state = "Chaos"
Phase 8: Visual Rendering
Orbit Plot : For each oscillator, convert polar (phase, amplitude) to Cartesian (x, y) for grid placement:
radius = amplitude × grid_center × 0.8
x = radius × cos(phase × π/180)
y = radius × sin(phase × π/180)
col = center + x (mapped to grid coordinates)
row = center - y
Heat Map : For each oscillator row and time column, retrieve historical phase value at lookback = (columns - col) × sample_rate, then map phase to color using a hue gradient.
Entanglement Web : Render matrix as table cell with background color opacity = E(i,j).
Field Cloud : Background color = (phi_dom > -90 AND phi_dom < 90) ? green : red, with opacity = mix(min_opacity, max_opacity, CI).
All visual components render only on the last bar (barstate.islast) to minimize computational overhead.
How to Use This Indicator
Step 1 : Apply QRFM to your chart. It works on all timeframes and asset classes, though 15-minute to 4-hour timeframes provide the best balance of responsiveness and noise reduction.
Step 2 : Enable the dashboard (default: top right) and the circular orbit plot (default: middle left). These are your primary visual feedback tools.
Step 3 : Optionally enable the heat map, entanglement web, and field cloud based on your preference. New users may find all visuals overwhelming; start with dashboard + orbit plot.
Step 4 : Observe for 50-100 bars to let the indicator establish baseline coherence patterns. Markets have different "normal" CI ranges—some instruments naturally run higher or lower coherence.
Understanding the Circular Orbit Plot
The orbit plot is a polar grid showing oscillator vectors in real-time:
Center point : Neutral (zero phase and amplitude)
Each vector : A line from center to a point on the grid
Vector angle : The oscillator's phase (0° = right/east, 90° = up/north, 180° = left/west, -90° = down/south)
Vector length : The oscillator's amplitude (short = weak signal, long = strong signal)
Vector label : First letter of oscillator name (R = RSI, M = MACD, etc.)
What to watch :
Convergence : When all vectors cluster in one quadrant or sector, CI is rising and coherence is forming. This is your pre-signal warning.
Scatter : When vectors point in random directions (360° spread), CI is low and the market is in a non-trending or transitional regime.
Rotation : When the cluster rotates smoothly around the circle, the ensemble is in coherent oscillation—typically seen during steady trends.
Sudden flips : When the cluster rapidly jumps from one side to the opposite (e.g., +90° to -90°), a phase reversal has occurred—often coinciding with trend reversals.
Example: If you see RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all pointing toward 45° (northeast) with long vectors, while CCI, TSI, and ROC point toward 40-50° as well, coherence is high and dominant phase is bullish. Expect an ignition signal if CI crosses threshold.
Reading Dashboard Metrics
The dashboard provides numerical confirmation of what the orbit plot shows visually:
CI : Displays as 0-100%. Above 70% = high coherence (strong regime), 40-70% = moderate, below 40% = low (poor conditions for trend entries).
Dom Phase : Angle in degrees with directional arrow. ⬆ = bullish bias, ⬇ = bearish bias, ⬌ = neutral.
Field Strength : CI weighted by amplitude. High values (> 0.6) indicate not just alignment but strong alignment.
Entangled Pairs : Count of oscillator pairs with E > threshold. Higher = more confirmation. If minimum is set to 4, you need at least 4 pairs entangled for signals.
Phase Lock : 🔒 YES (all oscillators within tolerance) or 🔓 NO (spread too wide).
State : Real-time classification:
🚀 IGNITION: CI just crossed threshold with phase-lock
⚡ COHERENT: CI is high and stable
💥 COLLAPSE: CI has dropped sharply
🌀 CHAOS: Low CI, scattered phases
Collapse Risk : 0-100% scale based on recent CI change. Above 50% warns of imminent breakdown.
Interpreting Signals
Long Ignition (Blue Triangle Below Price) :
Occurs when CI crosses above threshold (e.g., 0.80)
Dominant phase is in bullish range (-90° to +90°)
All oscillators are phase-locked (within tolerance)
Minimum entangled pairs requirement met
Interpretation : The oscillator ensemble has transitioned from disorder to coherent bullish alignment. This is a high-probability long entry point. The multi-layer confirmation (CI + phase direction + lock + entanglement) ensures this is not a single-oscillator whipsaw.
Short Ignition (Red Triangle Above Price) :
Same conditions as long, but dominant phase is in bearish range (< -90° or > +90°)
Interpretation : Coherent bearish alignment has formed. High-probability short entry.
Collapse (Circles Above and Below Price) :
CI has dropped by more than the collapse threshold (e.g., 0.55) over a 5-bar window
CI was previously above 0.6 (collapsing from coherent state)
Interpretation : Phase coherence has broken down. If you are in a position, this is an exit warning. If looking to enter, stand aside—regime is transitioning.
Phase-Time Heat Map Patterns
Enable the heat map and position it at bottom right. The rows represent individual oscillators, columns represent time bins (most recent on left).
Pattern: Horizontal Color Bands
If a row (e.g., RSI) shows consistent color across columns (say, green for several bins), that oscillator has maintained stable phase over time. If all rows show horizontal bands of similar color, the entire ensemble has been phase-locked for an extended period—this is a strong trending regime.
Pattern: Vertical Color Bands
If a column (single time bin) shows all cells with the same or very similar color, that moment in time had high coherence. These vertical bands often align with ignition signals or major price pivots.
Pattern: Rainbow Chaos
If cells are random colors (red, green, yellow mixed with no pattern), coherence is low. The ensemble is scattered. Avoid trading during these periods unless you have external confirmation.
Pattern: Color Transition
If you see a row transition from red to green (or vice versa) sharply, that oscillator has phase-flipped. If multiple rows do this simultaneously, a regime change is underway.
Entanglement Web Analysis
Enable the web matrix (default: opposite corner from heat map). It shows an N×N grid where N = number of active oscillators.
Bright Yellow/Gold Cells : High pairwise entanglement. For example, if the RSI-MACD cell is bright gold, those two oscillators are moving in phase. If the RSI-Stochastic cell is bright, they are entangled as well.
Dark Gray Cells : Low entanglement. Oscillators are decorrelated or in quadrature.
Diagonal : Always marked with "—" because an oscillator is always perfectly entangled with itself.
How to use :
Scan for clustering: If most cells are bright, coherence is high across the board. If only a few cells are bright, coherence is driven by a subset (e.g., RSI and MACD are aligned, but nothing else is—weak signal).
Identify laggards: If one row/column is entirely dark, that oscillator is the outlier. You may choose to disable it or monitor for when it joins the group (late confirmation).
Watch for web formation: During low-coherence periods, the matrix is mostly dark. As coherence builds, cells begin lighting up. A sudden "web" of connections forming visually precedes ignition signals.
Trading Workflow
Step 1: Monitor Coherence Level
Check the dashboard CI metric or observe the orbit plot. If CI is below 40% and vectors are scattered, conditions are poor for trend entries. Wait.
Step 2: Detect Coherence Building
When CI begins rising (say, from 30% to 50-60%) and you notice vectors on the orbit plot starting to cluster, coherence is forming. This is your alert phase—do not enter yet, but prepare.
Step 3: Confirm Phase Direction
Check the dominant phase angle and the orbit plot quadrant where clustering is occurring:
Clustering in right half (0° to ±90°): Bullish bias forming
Clustering in left half (±90° to 180°): Bearish bias forming
Verify the dashboard shows the corresponding directional arrow (⬆ or ⬇).
Step 4: Wait for Signal Confirmation
Do not enter based on rising CI alone. Wait for the full ignition signal:
CI crosses above threshold
Phase-lock indicator shows 🔒 YES
Entangled pairs count >= minimum
Directional triangle appears on chart
This ensures all layers have aligned.
Step 5: Execute Entry
Long : Blue triangle below price appears → enter long
Short : Red triangle above price appears → enter short
Step 6: Position Management
Initial Stop : Place stop loss based on your risk management rules (e.g., recent swing low/high, ATR-based buffer).
Monitoring :
Watch the field cloud density. If it remains opaque and colored in your direction, the regime is intact.
Check dashboard collapse risk. If it rises above 50%, prepare for exit.
Monitor the orbit plot. If vectors begin scattering or the cluster flips to the opposite side, coherence is breaking.
Exit Triggers :
Collapse signal fires (circles appear)
Dominant phase flips to opposite half-plane
CI drops below 40% (coherence lost)
Price hits your profit target or trailing stop
Step 7: Post-Exit Analysis
After exiting, observe whether a new ignition forms in the opposite direction (reversal) or if CI remains low (transition to range). Use this to decide whether to re-enter, reverse, or stand aside.
Best Practices
Use Price Structure as Context
QRFM identifies when coherence forms but does not specify where price will go. Combine ignition signals with support/resistance levels, trendlines, or chart patterns. For example:
Long ignition near a major support level after a pullback: high-probability bounce
Long ignition in the middle of a range with no structure: lower probability
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
Open QRFM on two timeframes simultaneously:
Higher timeframe (e.g., 4-hour): Use CI level to determine regime bias. If 4H CI is above 60% and dominant phase is bullish, the market is in a bullish regime.
Lower timeframe (e.g., 15-minute): Execute entries on ignition signals that align with the higher timeframe bias.
This prevents counter-trend trades and increases win rate.
Distinguish Between Regime Types
High CI, stable dominant phase (State: Coherent) : Trending market. Ignitions are continuation signals; collapses are profit-taking or reversal warnings.
Low CI, erratic dominant phase (State: Chaos) : Ranging or choppy market. Avoid ignition signals or reduce position size. Wait for coherence to establish.
Moderate CI with frequent collapses : Whipsaw environment. Use wider stops or stand aside.
Adjust Parameters to Instrument and Timeframe
Crypto/Forex (high volatility) : Lower ignition threshold (0.65-0.75), lower CI smoothing (2-3), shorter oscillator lengths (7-10).
Stocks/Indices (moderate volatility) : Standard settings (threshold 0.75-0.85, smoothing 5-7, oscillator lengths 14).
Lower timeframes (5-15 min) : Reduce phase sample rate to 1-2 for responsiveness.
Higher timeframes (daily+) : Increase CI smoothing and oscillator lengths for noise reduction.
Use Entanglement Count as Conviction Filter
The minimum entangled pairs setting controls signal strictness:
Low (1-2) : More signals, lower quality (acceptable if you have other confirmation)
Medium (3-5) : Balanced (recommended for most traders)
High (6+) : Very strict, fewer signals, highest quality
Adjust based on your trade frequency preference and risk tolerance.
Monitor Oscillator Contribution
Use the entanglement web to see which oscillators are driving coherence. If certain oscillators are consistently dark (low E with all others), they may be adding noise. Consider disabling them. For example:
On low-volume instruments, MFI may be unreliable → disable MFI
On strongly trending instruments, mean-reversion oscillators (Stochastic, RSI) may lag → reduce weight or disable
Respect the Collapse Signal
Collapse events are early warnings. Price may continue in the original direction for several bars after collapse fires, but the underlying regime has weakened. Best practice:
If in profit: Take partial or full profit on collapse
If at breakeven/small loss: Exit immediately
If collapse occurs shortly after entry: Likely a false ignition; exit to avoid drawdown
Collapses do not guarantee immediate reversals—they signal uncertainty .
Combine with Volume Analysis
If your instrument has reliable volume:
Ignitions with expanding volume: Higher conviction
Ignitions with declining volume: Weaker, possibly false
Collapses with volume spikes: Strong reversal signal
Collapses with low volume: May just be consolidation
Volume is not built into QRFM (except via MFI), so add it as external confirmation.
Observe the Phase Spiral
The spiral provides a quick visual cue for rotation consistency:
Tight, smooth spiral : Ensemble is rotating coherently (trending)
Loose, erratic spiral : Phase is jumping around (ranging or transitional)
If the spiral tightens, coherence is building. If it loosens, coherence is dissolving.
Do Not Overtrade Low-Coherence Periods
When CI is persistently below 40% and the state is "Chaos," the market is not in a regime where phase analysis is predictive. During these times:
Reduce position size
Widen stops
Wait for coherence to return
QRFM's strength is regime detection. If there is no regime, the tool correctly signals "stand aside."
Use Alerts Strategically
Set alerts for:
Long Ignition
Short Ignition
Collapse
Phase Lock (optional)
Configure alerts to "Once per bar close" to avoid intrabar repainting and noise. When an alert fires, manually verify:
Orbit plot shows clustering
Dashboard confirms all conditions
Price structure supports the trade
Do not blindly trade alerts—use them as prompts for analysis.
Ideal Market Conditions
Best Performance
Instruments :
Liquid, actively traded markets (major forex pairs, large-cap stocks, major indices, top-tier crypto)
Instruments with clear cyclical oscillator behavior (avoid extremely illiquid or manipulated markets)
Timeframes :
15-minute to 4-hour: Optimal balance of noise reduction and responsiveness
1-hour to daily: Slower, higher-conviction signals; good for swing trading
5-minute: Acceptable for scalping if parameters are tightened and you accept more noise
Market Regimes :
Trending markets with periodic retracements (where oscillators cycle through phases predictably)
Breakout environments (coherence forms before/during breakout; collapse occurs at exhaustion)
Rotational markets with clear swings (oscillators phase-lock at turning points)
Volatility :
Moderate to high volatility (oscillators have room to move through their ranges)
Stable volatility regimes (sudden VIX spikes or flash crashes may create false collapses)
Challenging Conditions
Instruments :
Very low liquidity markets (erratic price action creates unstable oscillator phases)
Heavily news-driven instruments (fundamentals may override technical coherence)
Highly correlated instruments (oscillators may all reflect the same underlying factor, reducing independence)
Market Regimes :
Deep, prolonged consolidation (oscillators remain near neutral, CI is chronically low, few signals fire)
Extreme chop with no directional bias (oscillators whipsaw, coherence never establishes)
Gap-driven markets (large overnight gaps create phase discontinuities)
Timeframes :
Sub-5-minute charts: Noise dominates; oscillators flip rapidly; coherence is fleeting and unreliable
Weekly/monthly: Oscillators move extremely slowly; signals are rare; better suited for long-term positioning than active trading
Special Cases :
During major economic releases or earnings: Oscillators may lag price or become decorrelated as fundamentals overwhelm technicals. Reduce position size or stand aside.
In extremely low-volatility environments (e.g., holiday periods): Oscillators compress to neutral, CI may be artificially high due to lack of movement, but signals lack follow-through.
Adaptive Behavior
QRFM is designed to self-adapt to poor conditions:
When coherence is genuinely absent, CI remains low and signals do not fire
When only a subset of oscillators aligns, entangled pairs count stays below threshold and signals are filtered out
When phase-lock cannot be achieved (oscillators too scattered), the lock filter prevents signals
This means the indicator will naturally produce fewer (or zero) signals during unfavorable conditions, rather than generating false signals. This is a feature —it keeps you out of low-probability trades.
Parameter Optimization by Trading Style
Scalping (5-15 Minute Charts)
Goal : Maximum responsiveness, accept higher noise
Oscillator Lengths :
RSI: 7-10
MACD: 8/17/6
Stochastic: 8-10, smooth 2-3
CCI: 14-16
Others: 8-12
Coherence Settings :
CI Smoothing Window: 2-3 bars (fast reaction)
Phase Sample Rate: 1 (every bar)
Ignition Threshold: 0.65-0.75 (lower for more signals)
Collapse Threshold: 0.40-0.50 (earlier exit warnings)
Confirmation :
Phase Lock Tolerance: 40-50° (looser, easier to achieve)
Min Entangled Pairs: 2-3 (fewer oscillators required)
Visuals :
Orbit Plot + Dashboard only (reduce screen clutter for fast decisions)
Disable heavy visuals (heat map, web) for performance
Alerts :
Enable all ignition and collapse alerts
Set to "Once per bar close"
Day Trading (15-Minute to 1-Hour Charts)
Goal : Balance between responsiveness and reliability
Oscillator Lengths :
RSI: 14 (standard)
MACD: 12/26/9 (standard)
Stochastic: 14, smooth 3
CCI: 20
Others: 10-14
Coherence Settings :
CI Smoothing Window: 3-5 bars (balanced)
Phase Sample Rate: 2-3
Ignition Threshold: 0.75-0.85 (moderate selectivity)
Collapse Threshold: 0.50-0.55 (balanced exit timing)
Confirmation :
Phase Lock Tolerance: 30-40° (moderate tightness)
Min Entangled Pairs: 4-5 (reasonable confirmation)
Visuals :
Orbit Plot + Dashboard + Heat Map or Web (choose one)
Field Cloud for regime backdrop
Alerts :
Ignition and collapse alerts
Optional phase-lock alert for advance warning
Swing Trading (4-Hour to Daily Charts)
Goal : High-conviction signals, minimal noise, fewer trades
Oscillator Lengths :
RSI: 14-21
MACD: 12/26/9 or 19/39/9 (longer variant)
Stochastic: 14-21, smooth 3-5
CCI: 20-30
Others: 14-20
Coherence Settings :
CI Smoothing Window: 5-10 bars (very smooth)
Phase Sample Rate: 3-5
Ignition Threshold: 0.80-0.90 (high bar for entry)
Collapse Threshold: 0.55-0.65 (only significant breakdowns)
Confirmation :
Phase Lock Tolerance: 20-30° (tight clustering required)
Min Entangled Pairs: 5-7 (strong confirmation)
Visuals :
All modules enabled (you have time to analyze)
Heat Map for multi-bar pattern recognition
Web for deep confirmation analysis
Alerts :
Ignition and collapse
Review manually before entering (no rush)
Position/Long-Term Trading (Daily to Weekly Charts)
Goal : Rare, very high-conviction regime shifts
Oscillator Lengths :
RSI: 21-30
MACD: 19/39/9 or 26/52/12
Stochastic: 21, smooth 5
CCI: 30-50
Others: 20-30
Coherence Settings :
CI Smoothing Window: 10-14 bars
Phase Sample Rate: 5 (every 5th bar to reduce computation)
Ignition Threshold: 0.85-0.95 (only extreme alignment)
Collapse Threshold: 0.60-0.70 (major regime breaks only)
Confirmation :
Phase Lock Tolerance: 15-25° (very tight)
Min Entangled Pairs: 6+ (broad consensus required)
Visuals :
Dashboard + Orbit Plot for quick checks
Heat Map to study historical coherence patterns
Web to verify deep entanglement
Alerts :
Ignition only (collapses are less critical on long timeframes)
Manual review with fundamental analysis overlay
Performance Optimization (Low-End Systems)
If you experience lag or slow rendering:
Reduce Visual Load :
Orbit Grid Size: 8-10 (instead of 12+)
Heat Map Time Bins: 5-8 (instead of 10+)
Disable Web Matrix entirely if not needed
Disable Field Cloud and Phase Spiral
Reduce Calculation Frequency :
Phase Sample Rate: 5-10 (calculate every 5-10 bars)
Max History Depth: 100-200 (instead of 500+)
Disable Unused Oscillators :
If you only want RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, disable the other five. Fewer oscillators = smaller matrices, faster loops.
Simplify Dashboard :
Choose "Small" dashboard size
Reduce number of metrics displayed
These settings will not significantly degrade signal quality (signals are based on bar-close calculations, which remain accurate), but will improve chart responsiveness.
Important Disclaimers
This indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to identify periods of phase coherence across an ensemble of oscillators. It is not a standalone trading system and does not guarantee profitable trades. The Coherence Index, dominant phase, and entanglement metrics are mathematical calculations applied to historical price data—they measure past oscillator behavior and do not predict future price movements with certainty.
No Predictive Guarantee : High coherence indicates that oscillators are currently aligned, which historically has coincided with trending or directional price movement. However, past alignment does not guarantee future trends. Markets can remain coherent while prices consolidate, or lose coherence suddenly due to news, liquidity changes, or other factors not captured by oscillator mathematics.
Signal Confirmation is Probabilistic : The multi-layer confirmation system (CI threshold + dominant phase + phase-lock + entanglement) is designed to filter out low-probability setups. This increases the proportion of valid signals relative to false signals, but does not eliminate false signals entirely. Users should combine QRFM with additional analysis—support and resistance levels, volume confirmation, multi-timeframe alignment, and fundamental context—before executing trades.
Collapse Signals are Warnings, Not Reversals : A coherence collapse indicates that the oscillator ensemble has lost alignment. This often precedes trend exhaustion or reversals, but can also occur during healthy pullbacks or consolidations. Price may continue in the original direction after a collapse. Use collapses as risk management cues (tighten stops, take partial profits) rather than automatic reversal entries.
Market Regime Dependency : QRFM performs best in markets where oscillators exhibit cyclical, mean-reverting behavior and where trends are punctuated by retracements. In markets dominated by fundamental shocks, gap openings, or extreme low-liquidity conditions, oscillator coherence may be less reliable. During such periods, reduce position size or stand aside.
Risk Management is Essential : All trading involves risk of loss. Use appropriate stop losses, position sizing, and risk-per-trade limits. The indicator does not specify stop loss or take profit levels—these must be determined by the user based on their risk tolerance and account size. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Parameter Sensitivity : The indicator's behavior changes with input parameters. Aggressive settings (low thresholds, loose tolerances) produce more signals with lower average quality. Conservative settings (high thresholds, tight tolerances) produce fewer signals with higher average quality. Users should backtest and forward-test parameter sets on their specific instruments and timeframes before committing real capital.
No Repainting by Design : All signal conditions are evaluated on bar close using bar-close values. However, the visual components (orbit plot, heat map, dashboard) update in real-time during bar formation for monitoring purposes. For trade execution, rely on the confirmed signals (triangles and circles) that appear only after the bar closes.
Computational Load : QRFM performs extensive calculations, including nested loops for entanglement matrices and real-time table rendering. On lower-powered devices or when running multiple indicators simultaneously, users may experience lag. Use the performance optimization settings (reduce visual complexity, increase phase sample rate, disable unused oscillators) to improve responsiveness.
This system is most effective when used as one component within a broader trading methodology that includes sound risk management, multi-timeframe analysis, market context awareness, and disciplined execution. It is a tool for regime detection and signal confirmation, not a substitute for comprehensive trade planning.
Technical Notes
Calculation Timing : All signal logic (ignition, collapse) is evaluated using bar-close values. The barstate.isconfirmed or implicit bar-close behavior ensures signals do not repaint. Visual components (tables, plots) render on every tick for real-time feedback but do not affect signal generation.
Phase Wrapping : Phase angles are calculated in the range -180° to +180° using atan2. Angular distance calculations account for wrapping (e.g., the distance between +170° and -170° is 20°, not 340°). This ensures phase-lock detection works correctly across the ±180° boundary.
Array Management : The indicator uses fixed-size arrays for oscillator phases, amplitudes, and the entanglement matrix. The maximum number of oscillators is 8. If fewer oscillators are enabled, array sizes shrink accordingly (only active oscillators are processed).
Matrix Indexing : The entanglement matrix is stored as a flat array with size N×N, where N is the number of active oscillators. Index mapping: index(row, col) = row × N + col. Symmetric pairs (i,j) and (j,i) are stored identically.
Normalization Stability : Oscillators are normalized to using fixed reference levels (e.g., RSI overbought/oversold at 70/30). For unbounded oscillators (MACD, ROC, TSI), statistical normalization (division by rolling standard deviation) is used, with clamping to prevent extreme outliers from distorting phase calculations.
Smoothing and Lag : The CI smoothing window (SMA) introduces lag proportional to the window size. This is intentional—it filters out single-bar noise spikes in coherence. Users requiring faster reaction can reduce the smoothing window to 1-2 bars, at the cost of increased sensitivity to noise.
Complex Number Representation : Pine Script does not have native complex number types. Complex arithmetic is implemented using separate real and imaginary accumulators (sum_cos, sum_sin) and manual calculation of magnitude (sqrt(real² + imag²)) and argument (atan2(imag, real)).
Lookback Limits : The indicator respects Pine Script's maximum lookback constraints. Historical phase and amplitude values are accessed using the operator, with lookback limited to the chart's available bar history (max_bars_back=5000 declared).
Visual Rendering Performance : Tables (orbit plot, heat map, web, dashboard) are conditionally deleted and recreated on each update using table.delete() and table.new(). This prevents memory leaks but incurs redraw overhead. Rendering is restricted to barstate.islast (last bar) to minimize computational load—historical bars do not render visuals.
Alert Condition Triggers : alertcondition() functions evaluate on bar close when their boolean conditions transition from false to true. Alerts do not fire repeatedly while a condition remains true (e.g., CI stays above threshold for 10 bars fires only once on the initial cross).
Color Gradient Functions : The phaseColor() function maps phase angles to RGB hues using sine waves offset by 120° (red, green, blue channels). This creates a continuous spectrum where -180° to +180° spans the full color wheel. The amplitudeColor() function maps amplitude to grayscale intensity. The coherenceColor() function uses cos(phase) to map contribution to CI (positive = green, negative = red).
No External Data Requests : QRFM operates entirely on the chart's symbol and timeframe. It does not use request.security() or access external data sources. All calculations are self-contained, avoiding lookahead bias from higher-timeframe requests.
Deterministic Behavior : Given identical input parameters and price data, QRFM produces identical outputs. There are no random elements, probabilistic sampling, or time-of-day dependencies.
— Dskyz, Engineering precision. Trading coherence.
Pre-London & London Session (Auto DST) MMMThis indicator automatically marks the Pre-London and London Open sessions for any trading day, with full U.S. Daylight Saving Time (DST) adjustment.
It’s ideal for traders backtesting Gold (XAUUSD) or other pairs sensitive to London liquidity, as it dynamically shifts between UTC-4 and UTC-5 to stay perfectly aligned with institutional session timing.
Features:
🕑 Auto-detects whether the date falls under U.S. Daylight or Standard Time
🟧 Highlights Pre-London session (2 a.m.–3 a.m. EDT / 1 a.m.–2 a.m. EST)
🟩 Highlights London session (3 a.m.–5 a.m. EDT / 2 a.m.–4 a.m. EST)
⚙️ No manual adjustments needed — fully automatic for any backtest date
📈 Perfect for ICT, Smart Money, and liquidity-based session strategies
Recommended settings:
Chart timezone: New York
Works on all symbols and timeframes
XAUUSD 5m — NY Supertrend+RSI Optimizer (1:2 RR) — $240k/orderThis strategy is built for XAUUSD (Gold) on the 5-minute timeframe, focusing exclusively on the New York trading session (08:00–17:00 NY time) — the most volatile and liquid hours of the day.
It combines a Supertrend trend filter with RSI momentum signals to identify high-probability entries, using a 1:2 risk–reward ratio for disciplined trade management.
🧠 Strategy Logic:
Buy Condition: RSI crosses above 55 while Supertrend indicates an uptrend
Sell Condition: RSI crosses below 45 while Supertrend indicates a downtrend
Session Filter: Trades only between 08:00 → 17:00 New York time
Risk/Reward: 1:2 (Take-Profit = 2× Stop-Loss distance from Supertrend line)
Position Size: $240,000 notional per order
Auto-Exit: Closes all trades at NY session end
⚡ Highlights:
Targets NY session volatility
Combines trend + momentum for cleaner entries
Strict 1:2 RR for consistent outcomes
Avoids overnight exposure
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This script is intended for educational and research purposes only.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always forward-test on demo before using live capital.
XAUUSD 5m — CET 13:00→01:00 Supertrend + RSI (1:2 RR) — $240KThis strategy is designed for XAUUSD (Gold) on the 5-minute chart, optimized for trading during the most active hours (13:00–01:00 CET).
It combines a Supertrend direction filter with RSI crossovers for precise entries, and applies a 1:2 risk–reward ratio for consistent risk management.
🧠 Logic Overview:
Buy Signal: RSI crosses above 55 while Supertrend is bullish
Sell Signal: RSI crosses below 45 while Supertrend is bearish
Trading Hours: 13:00 → 01:00 CET (corresponding to 07:00 → 19:00 New York time)
Risk Management: Fixed 1:2 RR (TP = 2× SL distance from Supertrend line)
Session Management: Automatically closes all trades after 01:00 CET
Order Size: $240,000 notional exposure per position
💡 Best used for:
Scalping or intraday trading on XAUUSD during high-volatility hours.
The setup works best when combined with strong price action or volume confirmation.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This script is for educational and testing purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Always test on demo before using live funds.
Sultan_Mstrading Dynamic Levels (Auto-Market Final Version)The Sultan_Mstrading Dynamic Levels indicator automatically generates dynamic support and resistance levels based on the market type or trading symbol (such as Gold, Bitcoin, Indices, Oil, or Forex pairs).
It plots multiple levels above and below the current price with adjustable spacing, and automatically highlights the nearest level to the current price for quick visual reference
5-Year Returns Chart BTCvsSPXvsGOLDvsNVDACompare between thes 4 assets:
BTC
NVDA
SPX
GOLD
With an initial 1000$ investment in the last 5 years each return
FluxVector Liquidity Universal Trendline FluxVector Liquidity Trendline FFTL
Summary in one paragraph
FFTL is a single adaptive trendline for stocks ETFs FX crypto and indices on one minute to daily. It fires only when price action pressure and volatility curvature align. It is original because it fuses a directional liquidity pulse from candle geometry and normalized volume with realized volatility curvature and an impact efficiency term to modulate a Kalman like state without ATR VWAP or moving averages. Add it to a clean chart and use the colored line plus alerts. Shapes can move while a bar is open and settle on close. For conservative alerts select on bar close.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Major FX pairs index futures large cap equities liquid crypto top ETFs
• Timeframes. One minute to daily
• Default demo used in the publication. SPY on 30min
• Purpose. Reduce false flips and chop by gating the line reaction to noise and by using a one bar projection
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Unique fusion. Directional Liquidity Pulse plus Volatility Curvature plus Impact Efficiency drives an adaptive gain for a one dimensional state
• Failure mode addressed. One or two shock candles that break ordinary trendlines and saw chop in flat regimes
• Testability. All windows and gains are inputs
• Portable yardstick. Returns use natural log units and range is bar high minus low
• Protected scripts. Not used. Method disclosed plainly here
Method overview in plain language
Base measures
• Return basis. Natural log of close over prior close. Average absolute return over a window is a unit of motion
Components
• Directional Liquidity Pulse DLP. Measures signed participation from body and wick imbalance scaled by normalized volume and variance stabilized
• Volatility Curvature. Second difference of realized volatility from returns highlights expansion or compression
• Impact Efficiency. Price change per unit range and volume boosts gain during efficient moves
• Energy score. Z scores of the above form a single energy that controls the state gain
• One bar projection. Current slope extended by one bar for anticipatory checks
Fusion rule
Weighted sum inside the energy score then logistic mapping to a gain between k min and k max. The state updates toward price plus a small flow push.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion and order when close is below trend and the one bar projection is above the trend
• Short suggestion and flip when close is above trend and the one bar projection is below the trend
• WAIT is implicit when neither condition holds
• In position states end on the opposite condition
What you will see on the chart
• Colored trendline teal for rising red for falling gray for flat
• Optional projection line one bar ahead
• Optional background can be enabled in code
• Alerts on price cross and on slope flips
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Price source. Close by default
Logic
• Flow window. Typical range 20 to 80. Higher smooths the pulse and reduces flips
• Vol window. Typical range 30 to 120. Higher calms curvature
• Energy window. Typical range 20 to 80. Higher slows regime changes
• Min gain and Max gain. Raise max to react faster. Raise min to keep momentum in chop
UI
• Show 1 bar projection. Colors for up down flat
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital 25000
• Base currency USD
• Commission percent 0.03
• Slippage 5
• Default order size method percent of equity value 3%
• Pyramiding 0
• Process orders on close off
• Calc on every tick off
• Recalculate after order is filled off
Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims
• Intrabar reminder. Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close
• Strategy uses standard candles only
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Sudden gaps and thin liquidity can still produce fast flips
• Very quiet regimes reduce contrast. Use larger windows and lower max gain
• Session time uses the exchange time of the chart if you enable any windows later
• Past results never guarantee future outcomes
Open source reuse and credits
• None
NOVA Breakout Signals v2.2 (TF M30)A clean, rules-based breakout signal tool for 30-minute charts.
It detects Dow swing breakouts and filters them with RSI, MACD and Volume so you only see the higher-quality entries. The script does not place trades and does not calculate SL/TP – it only prints clear LONG/SHORT labels at the entry price.
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How it works
1. Timeframe enforcement – Signals are generated only on M30. On other timeframes the script shows a notice and stays silent.
2. Breakout engine (Dow swings) – The last confirmed swing high/low (pivots) is tracked.
• Breakout Up: bar closes above the last swing high by a small buffer.
• Breakout Down: bar closes below the last swing low by a small buffer.
3. Quality filters (all must be true):
• RSI (default length 30):
• Long: RSI > threshold and rising.
• Short: RSI < threshold and falling.
• MACD (12/26/9):
• Long: histogram > 0 and line > signal.
• Short: histogram < 0 and line < signal.
• Volume: current volume > SMA(volume, 20) × multiplier.
4. Debounce / anti-spam
• Cooldown of 4 hours (8 M30 bars) after any signal.
• Minimum price distance from the previous signal to avoid clustered labels.
Signals appear once the bar closes (barstate.isconfirmed). No swing lines are drawn to keep the chart clean; only entry labels are shown.
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Inputs (key)
• RSI length & thresholds for Long/Short confirmation.
• MACD uses 12/26/9 (fixed).
• Volume multiplier (relative to SMA 20).
• Breakout buffer %, Cooldown hours, Min distance %.
• Show labels (on/off).
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Usage tips
• Start with gold/major FX/indices on M30; use “Once per bar close” if you attach alerts.
• Increase the breakout buffer and volume multiplier in choppy markets.
• Tighten RSI thresholds (e.g., 55/45) if you want fewer but stronger signals.
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Notes & limitations
• Pivots confirm after a few bars by definition; signals themselves are printed only on confirmed bar close and do not repaint once shown.
• This is a signal indicator, not investment advice. Always manage risk.
Relative Valuation OscillatorThis is a Relative Valuation Oscillator (RVO) this is attempt of replication OTC Valuation - a sophisticated multi-asset comparison indicator designed to measure whether the current asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to up to three reference assets.
Overview
The RVO compares the current chart's asset against reference assets (default: 30-Year Treasury Bonds, Gold, and US Dollar Index) to determine relative strength and valuation extremes. It outputs normalized oscillator values ranging from -100 (undervalued) to +100 (overvalued).
Key Features
Multiple Calculation Methods
The indicator offers 5 different calculation approaches:
Simple Ratio - Normalized ratio deviation from average
Percentage Difference - Percentage change comparison
Ratio Z-Score - Standard deviation-based comparison
Rate of Change Comparison - Momentum differential analysis (default)
Normalized Ratio - Min-max normalized ratio
Configurable Reference Assets
Asset 1: Default ZB (30-Year Treasury Bond Futures) - tracks interest rate sensitivity
Asset 2: Default GC (Gold Futures) - tracks safe-haven and inflation dynamics
Asset 3: Default DXY (US Dollar Index) - tracks currency strength
Each asset can be enabled/disabled independently
Fully customizable symbols
Visual Components
Multiple oscillator lines - One for each active reference asset (color-coded)
Average line - Combined signal from all active assets
Overbought/Oversold zones - Configurable threshold levels (default: ±80)
Zero line - Neutral valuation reference
Background coloring - Visual zones for extreme conditions
Signal line - Optional smoothed average
Entry markers - Long/short signals at key reversals
Signal Generation
Crossover alerts - When crossing overbought/oversold levels
Entry signals - Reversals from extreme zones
Divergence detection - Bullish/bearish divergences between price and oscillator
Zero-line crosses - Trend strength changes
Customization Options
Lookback period (10-500): Controls statistical calculation window
Normalization period (50-1000): Determines scaling sensitivity
Smoothing toggle: Optional EMA/SMA smoothing with adjustable period
Visual customization: Colors, levels, and display options
Information Table
Real-time dashboard showing:
Average oscillator value
Current status (Overvalued/Undervalued/Neutral)
Current asset price
Individual values for each active reference asset
Use Cases
Mean reversion trading - Identify extreme relative valuations for reversal trades
Sector rotation - Compare assets within similar categories
Hedging strategies - Understand correlation dynamics
Multi-asset analysis - Simultaneously compare against bonds, commodities, and currencies
Divergence trading - Spot price/oscillator divergences
Trading Strategy Applications
Long signals: When oscillator crosses above oversold level (asset recovering from undervaluation)
Short signals: When oscillator crosses below overbought level (asset declining from overvaluation)
Confirmation: Use multiple reference assets for stronger signals
Risk management: Avoid trading when all assets show neutral readings
This indicator is particularly useful for traders who want to incorporate inter-market analysis and relative strength concepts into their trading decisions, especially in OTC (Over-The-Counter) and futures markets.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Trading Lot & Margin Calculator
# 💹 Trading Lot & Margin Calculator - Professional Risk Management Tool
## 🎯 Overview
A comprehensive, all-in-one calculator dashboard that helps traders determine optimal position sizes, calculate margin requirements, and manage risk effectively across multiple asset classes. This indicator displays directly on your chart as a customizable table, providing real-time calculations based on current market prices.
## ✨ Key Features
### 📊 Three Powerful Calculation Modes:
**1. Calculate Lot Size (Risk-Based Position Sizing)**
- Input your risk percentage and stop loss in pips
- Automatically calculates the optimal lot size for your risk tolerance
- Respects margin limitations (configurable margin % cap)
- Ensures positions don't exceed minimum lot size (0.01)
- Perfect for risk management and proper position sizing
**2. Calculate Margin Cost**
- Input desired lot size
- See exactly how much margin is required
- Shows percentage of deposit used
- Displays free margin remaining
- Warns when insufficient funds
**3. Margin to Lots**
- Specify a fixed margin amount you want to use
- Calculator shows how many lots/contracts you can buy
- Ideal for traders with fixed margin budgets
## 🤖 Auto-Detection of Instruments
The calculator **automatically detects** what you're trading and adjusts calculations accordingly:
### ✅ Fully Supported:
- **💱 Forex Pairs** - All majors, minors, exotics (EURUSD, GBPJPY, etc.)
- Standard lot: 100,000 units
- JPY pairs: 0.01 pip size, others: 0.0001
- **🛢️ Commodities** - Gold, Silver, Oil
- XAUUSD (Gold): 100 oz per lot
- XAGUSD (Silver): 5,000 oz per lot
- Oil (WTI/Brent): 1,000 barrels per lot
- **📈 Indices** - US500, NAS100, US30, DAX, etc.
- Correct contract sizes per point
- **📊 Stocks** - All individual stocks
- 1 lot = 1 share
- Direct share calculations
### ⚠️ Known Limitation:
- **₿ Crypto calculations may not work properly** on all crypto pairs. Use manual contract size if needed.
## 📋 Dashboard Information Displayed:
- 🎯 Optimal/Requested Lot Size
- 💰 Margin Required
- 📊 Margin % of Deposit
- 💵 Free Margin Remaining
- 💎 Position Value
- 📈 Pip/Point Value
- ⚠️ Safety Warnings (insufficient funds, high risk, etc.)
- 🔍 Detected Instrument Type
- 📦 Contract Size
## ⚙️ Customizable Settings:
**Account Settings:**
- Account Deposit
- Leverage (1:1 to 1:1000)
- Max Margin % of Deposit (default 5% for safety)
**Risk Management:**
- Risk Percentage (for lot size calculation)
- Stop Loss in Pips
- Lot Amount (for margin cost calculation)
- Margin to Use (for margin-to-lots calculation)
**Display Options:**
- Show/Hide Dashboard
- Position: Top/Middle/Bottom, Left/Right
- Auto-detect instrument ON/OFF
- Manual contract size override
## 🎨 Professional Design
- Clean, modern table interface
- Color-coded warnings (red = danger, yellow = caution, green = safe)
- Large, readable text
- Minimal screen space usage
- Non-intrusive overlay
## 💡 Use Cases:
1. **Day Traders** - Quick position sizing based on account risk
2. **Swing Traders** - Calculate optimal positions for longer-term setups
3. **Risk Managers** - Ensure positions stay within margin limits
4. **Beginners** - Learn proper position sizing and risk management
5. **Multi-Asset Traders** - Seamlessly switch between forex, commodities, indices, and stocks
## ⚠️ Important Notes:
- ✅ Works on all timeframes
- ✅ Updates in real-time with price changes
- ✅ Minimum lot size enforced (0.01)
- ✅ Margin calculations use current chart price
- ⚠️ **Crypto calculations may be inaccurate** - verify with your broker
- 📌 Always verify calculations with your broker's specifications
- 📌 Contract sizes may vary by broker
## 🚀 How to Use:
1. Add indicator to any chart
2. Click settings ⚙️ icon
3. Enter your account details (deposit, leverage)
4. Choose calculation mode
5. Input your parameters
6. View optimal lot size and margin requirements on dashboard
## 📈 Perfect For:
- Forex traders managing multiple currency pairs
- Commodity traders (Gold, Silver, Oil)
- Index traders (S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc.)
- Stock traders
- Anyone who wants professional risk management
## 🛡️ Risk Management Features:
- Configurable margin % cap prevents over-leveraging
- Risk-based position sizing protects your account
- Warnings for high risk, insufficient funds, margin limitations
- Prevents positions below minimum lot size
---
**Trade smarter, not harder. Calculate before you trade!** 📊💪
---
## Version Notes:
- Pine Script v6
- Overlay mode for chart display
- No external dependencies
- Lightweight and fast
**Disclaimer:** This calculator is for educational and informational purposes only. Always verify calculations with your broker and trade at your own risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
---
XAUUSD Family Scalping (5min)🟡 XAUUSD Family Scalping 5-Min — Momentum Precision Indicator
Overview
This indicator is built for XAUUSD (Gold) on the 5-minute timeframe and is designed for short-term momentum scalping.
It helps traders identify early reversal zones, confirm momentum direction, and detect exhaustion points during high-volatility market moves.
Core Concept
The indicator measures momentum strength and price acceleration using a smoothed oscillator.
It features two adjustable thresholds:
Overbought level: 58
Oversold level: -58
When the momentum line crosses above or below these zones, it signals potential trend continuation or reversal opportunities.
Features
Detects short-term momentum shifts on XAUUSD 5M.
Works with EMA-based trend confirmation (optional).
Adaptive smoothing reduces noise and false reversals.
Highlights overbought/oversold areas visually.
Can be combined with price action or other oscillators for confluence.
Usage
Instrument: XAUUSD (Gold)
Best timeframe: 5-minute (scalping setup)
Use case: Detecting momentum exhaustion and reversal entries.
Sessions: London & New York recommended.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for market analysis and educational purposes.
No indicator guarantees profit — use proper risk management and test before live trading.
MarketMonkey-Indicator-Set-1 - GMMA open 🧠 MarketMonkey-Indicator-Set-1 — GMMA Open
GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) Toolkit for Trend Clarity & Timing
The MarketMonkey GMMA Open indicators brings a clean, high-performance visual of trend strength and direction using multiple exponential moving averages (EMAs) across short- and long-term time frames.
Designed for traders who want to see momentum shifts and market transitions as they happen, this version overlays directly on the price chart for quick and confident reads.
🔍 How It Works
* Short-term EMAs (3–15) track trader sentiment and momentum.
* Long-term EMAs (30–60) show investor trend commitment.
* The indicator dynamically colors the long-term EMAs:
* 🔵 Blue : Upward momentum
* 🔴 Red : Downward momentum
When the short-term group expands above the long-term group, it signals strength and potential continuation. Tightening or compression may warn of pauses or reversals.
💡 Features
* 12 adjustable EMA periods (customize your GMMA spacing)
* Automatic color shifts for trend clarity
* Live price flag for easy reference
* Compact ticker/date display in the top-right corner
* Minimalist, overlay-based design — no clutter, just clarity
📈 Best Used For
* Spotting early trend changes
* Confirming continuation or breakout setups
* Identifying compression zones before reversals
* Overlaying on ASX, S&P, FX, Gold, or Crypto charts
🔔 Part of the MarketMonkey Indicator Set series — tools built for real-world trend recognition and momentum trading.
Relative Momentum Rotation [CHE] Relative Momentum Rotation — Ranks assets by multi-horizon momentum for guided rotational selection with regime overlay
Summary
This indicator evaluates a universe of assets using a blended momentum measure across three time horizons, then ranks them to highlight top performers for potential portfolio rotation. It incorporates a regime filter to contextualize signals, tinting the background to indicate favorable or unfavorable market conditions and labeling transitions for awareness. By focusing on relative strength within a selectable universe, it helps identify leaders without relying on absolute thresholds, reducing noise from isolated trends and promoting disciplined asset switching.
Motivation: Why this design?
Traders often struggle with momentum signals that perform unevenly across market phases, such as overreacting in volatile periods or lagging in steady uptrends, leading to suboptimal rotations in multi-asset portfolios. The core idea of relative momentum rotation addresses this by comparing assets head-to-head within a defined group, blending short- and long-term changes to capture sustained strength while a regime overlay adds a macro layer to avoid fighting broader trends. This setup prioritizes peer-relative outperformance over standalone measures, aiding consistent selection in rotational strategies.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
- Reference baseline: Traditional rate-of-change indicators track absolute price shifts over a single window, which can generate whipsaws in sideways markets or miss cross-asset opportunities.
- Architecture differences:
- Blends three distinct horizons into one composite score for a fuller momentum picture, rather than isolating one period.
- Applies ranking across a customizable universe (e.g., crypto or tech stocks) to emphasize relatives, not absolutes.
- Integrates a simple regime check via moving average crossover on a reference symbol, gating selections without overcomplicating the core logic.
- Outputs a dynamic table for visual ranking, plus subtle visual cues like background tints, instead of cluttered plots.
- Practical effect: Charts show clearer hierarchy among assets, with regime tints providing at-a-glance context—top ranks stand out more reliably in bull regimes, helping traders focus rotations without constant recalibration.
How it works (technical)
The indicator starts by assembling a list of symbols from the selected universe, including only those marked as active to keep the group focused. For each symbol, it gathers change rates over three specified horizons on a higher timeframe, blends them using user-defined weights (automatically normalized if they do not sum to one), and computes a single composite score. Scores are then ranked to select the top performers up to a set number, forming a rotation candidate list.
To add context, a regime state is determined by comparing the reference symbol's price to its moving average on daily bars—above signals a positive environment, below a negative one, with an option to invert this logic. The current chart's symbol is checked against the top list for inclusion status. All higher-timeframe data pulls are set to avoid lookahead bias, though updates may shift slightly until bars close. Persistent variables track the table state and prior regime to handle redraws efficiently, ensuring the display rebuilds only when the selection count changes.
Parameter Guide
Universe — Switches between predefined crypto or US-tech symbol sets for ranking peers. Default: Crypto. Trade-offs/Tips: Crypto for volatile assets; US-Tech for equities—match to your portfolio to avoid mismatched volatility.
Include Symbol 1–12 — Toggles individual symbols in the universe on or off. Default: Varies (true for top 10, false for extras). Trade-offs/Tips: Start with defaults for a balanced group; disable laggards to sharpen focus, but keep at least 5–8 for robust ranking.
Scoring Timeframe — Sets the aggregation period for momentum changes (e.g., monthly bars). Default: Monthly. Trade-offs/Tips: Monthly for long-term rotation; weekly for faster signals—increases noise if too short.
Weight 12m / 6m / 3m — Adjusts emphasis on long/medium/short horizons in the blend. Default: 0.50 / 0.30 / 0.20. Trade-offs/Tips: Heavier long-term for stability in trends; balance to fit asset class—test sums near 1.0 to avoid auto-normalization surprises.
ROC over MA instead of Close — Uses smoothed averages for change rates to reduce chop. Default: False. Trade-offs/Tips: Enable in noisy markets for fewer false tops; adds slight lag, so monitor for delayed rotations.
Top N to hold — Limits selections to this many highest-ranked assets. Default: 10. Trade-offs/Tips: Lower for concentrated bets (higher risk/reward); higher for diversification—align with your position sizing.
Mark current symbol if in Top N — Highlights if the chart's asset ranks in the selection. Default: True. Trade-offs/Tips: Useful for self-scanning; disable in multi-chart setups to declutter.
Enable Regime Filter — Activates macro overlay using reference symbol. Default: True. Trade-offs/Tips: Core for trend-aware trading; disable for pure momentum plays, but risks counter-trend entries.
Regime Symbol — Chooses the benchmark for regime (e.g., broad index). Default: QQQ. Trade-offs/Tips: Broad market proxy like SPY for equities; swap for BTC in crypto to match universe.
SMA Length (D) — Sets the averaging window for regime comparison. Default: 100. Trade-offs/Tips: Longer for fewer flips (smoother regimes); shorter for quicker detection—default suits daily checks.
Invert (rare) — Flips the regime logic (price above average becomes negative). Default: False. Trade-offs/Tips: Only if your view inverts the benchmark; test thoroughly as it reverses all tints/labels.
Show Ranking Table — Displays the ranked list with scores and regime status. Default: True. Trade-offs/Tips: Essential for selection; position tweaks help on crowded charts.
Table X / Y — Places the table on the chart (e.g., top-right). Default: Right / Top. Trade-offs/Tips: Corner placement avoids price overlap; middle for central focus in reviews.
Dark Theme — Applies inverted colors for visibility. Default: True. Trade-offs/Tips: Matches most TradingView themes; toggle for light backgrounds without losing contrast.
Text Size — Scales table font for readability. Default: Normal. Trade-offs/Tips: Smaller for dense data; larger on big screens—impacts only last-bar render.
Background Tint by Regime — Colors the chart faintly green/red based on state. Default: True. Trade-offs/Tips: Subtle cue for immersion; disable if it distracts from price action.
Label on Regime Flip — Adds text markers at state changes. Default: True. Trade-offs/Tips: Aids journaling flips; space them by disabling in low-vol periods to cut clutter.
Reading & Interpretation
The ranking table lists top assets by position, symbol, percentage score (higher indicates stronger blended momentum), and regime status—green "ON" for favorable, red "OFF" for cautionary. Background shifts to a light teal in positive regimes (suggesting alignment for longs) or pale red in negative ones (hinting at reduced exposure). Flip labels appear as green "Regime ON" above bars or red "Regime OFF" below, marking transitions without ongoing noise. If the current symbol appears in the top rows with a solid score, it signals potential hold or entry priority within rotations.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
- Trend following: Scan the table weekly on monthly charts for top entrants; confirm with higher highs/lows in price structure before rotating in. Use regime tint as a veto—skip buys in red phases.
- Exits/Stops: Rotate out of bottom-half ranks monthly; tighten stops below recent lows during regime flips to protect against reversals. Pair with volatility filters like average true range for dynamic sizing.
- Multi-asset/Multi-TF: Defaults work across crypto/equities on daily+ timeframes; for intraday, shorten scoring to weekly but expect more interim noise. Scale universe size with portfolio count—e.g., top 5 for aggressive crypto rotations.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Signals update on bar close to confirm higher-timeframe data, but live bars may preview shifts from security calls, introducing minor repaint until finalized—mitigated by non-lookahead settings, though daily regime checks can lag by one session. Arrays handle up to 12 symbols efficiently, with loops capped at selection size; max bars back at 5000 supports historical depth without overload. Resource use stays low, but dense universes on very long charts may slow initial loads.
Known limits include sensitivity to universe composition (skewed groups amplify biases) and regime lag at sharp market turns, potentially delaying rotations by a period.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Defaults assume a 10-asset crypto rotation on monthly scoring with balanced weights and QQQ regime—ideal for intermediate-term equity-like plays. For too-frequent table reshuffles, extend scoring timeframe or weight longer horizons more. If selections feel sluggish, shorten the 3-month weight or enable MA smoothing off. In high-vol environments, raise top N and SMA length for stability; for crypto bursts, drop to weekly scoring and invert regime if using a volatile proxy.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a selection and visualization tool for momentum-based rotations, layering relative ranks and regime context onto charts to inform asset picks. It is not a standalone system—pair it with entry/exit rules, position sizing, and risk limits. Nor is it predictive; it reacts to past changes and may underperform in prolonged ranges or during universe gaps.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Where does it come from, specifically?
The principle of “composite momentum across multiple horizons” is common in TAA/rotation strategies. As a documented example: Keller/Butler use a composite 1/3/6/12-month momentum (“13612W”)—same idea, different windows/weights.
Robot Wealth
A practical vendor example: EPS Momentum calculates an RMR composite as a weighted mix of 12/6/3/1-month ranks (very close to “12/6/3”).
EPS Momentum
Related but not identical: StockCharts’ RRG measures the momentum rotation of relative strength—often mentioned in the same context, but it doesn’t have a fixed “12/6/3” composite.
chartschool.stockcharts.com
How is it typically computed?
ROC_12 + ROC_6 + ROC_3 (often scaled/weighted), then ranked vs. peers; the rotation periodically holds the top ranks in the portfolio. (Variants use different weights or additionally include 1-month—see the sources above.)
robotwealth.com
epsmomentum.com
Relative Valuation OscillatorRelative Valuation Oscillator (RVO) Description
The Valuation_OTC.pine script is a Relative Valuation Oscillator for TradingView that compares the current asset against a reference asset (like Bitcoin, S&P 500, or Gold) to determine if it's relatively overvalued or undervalued.
Key Features:
1. Multiple Calculation Methods:
Simple Ratio - Compares price ratio deviation from average
Percentage Difference - Direct percentage comparison between assets
Ratio Z-Score - Statistical measure (standard deviations from mean)
Rate of Change Comparison - Compares momentum/performance
Normalized Ratio - 0-100 scale centered at zero
2. Customizable Settings:
Reference asset selection (default: BTC/USDT)
Adjustable lookback period (10-500 bars)
Optional smoothing with configurable period
Overbought/oversold level thresholds (default: ±1.5)
3. Trading Signals:
Overvalued - Oscillator above overbought level (red zone)
Undervalued - Oscillator below oversold level (green zone)
Neutral - Between thresholds
Crossover alerts for key levels
Divergence detection (bullish/bearish)
4. Visual Components:
Color-coded oscillator line (green when positive, red when negative)
Optional signal line for additional smoothing
Background shading for valuation zones
Information table showing current metrics and status
Shape markers for crossovers and divergences
5. Alert Conditions:
Overvalued/undervalued alerts
Zero-line crossovers
Divergence signals
This indicator is useful for pairs trading, relative strength analysis, and identifying when an asset is trading at extremes relative to a benchmark asset.
Stock Fundamental Overlay [DarwinDarma]Stock Fundamental Overlay
Stock Fundamental Overlay is a comprehensive valuation indicator that displays multiple fundamental analysis metrics directly on your price chart.
Key Features:
• Graham Number - Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value formula
• Book Value Per Share (BVPS) - Net asset value baseline
• DCF Valuation - Discounted Cash Flow analysis (non-financial stocks)
• DDM Valuation - Dividend Discount Model (dividend-paying stocks)
• Visual Value Zones - Color-coded undervalued/overvalued regions
• Real-time Fundamental Table - Live metrics and valuations
• Price vs Graham Comparison - Quick valuation assessment
• Built-in Alerts - Notification when price crosses key levels
Valuation Models:
• Graham Number: √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
• DCF: Customizable discount rate, growth rate, and forecast period
• DDM: Gordon Growth Model for dividend analysis
Visual Elements:
• Plot lines for BVPS, Graham Number, and DCF values
• Shaded value zone between BVPS and Graham Number
• Background coloring: Deep value (below BVPS), Undervalued (below Graham), Overvalued (>1.5x Graham)
• Dynamic table showing all metrics with theme-aware text colors
Special Handling:
• Financial sector detection - DCF disabled for banks/financials where FCF metrics are distorted
• Automatic light/dark theme adaptation
• TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) data for current metrics
How to Use - Value Investing Approach:
1. Identifying Undervalued Stocks:
• Look for price trading BELOW the Graham Number (green zone) - potential value opportunity
• Deep value: Price below BVPS indicates trading below net asset value
• Check "Price vs Graham" % in table - negative values suggest undervaluation
• Compare multiple models: When price is below Graham, DCF, and BVPS simultaneously, stronger buy signal
2. Margin of Safety:
• Benjamin Graham recommended buying at 2/3 of intrinsic value (33% margin of safety)
• Monitor the gap between current price and valuation lines
• Larger gaps = greater margin of safety = lower downside risk
• Use the shaded "Value Zone" as your target buying range
3. Setting Alerts:
• "Price Below Graham Number" - Notifies when stock enters value territory
• "Price Below Book Value" - Extreme value alert for deep value hunters
• "Price Below DCF Value" - Cash flow-based value signal
• Set alerts on watchlist stocks to catch value opportunities
4. Customizing for Your Strategy:
• Conservative investors: Use lower growth rates (3-4%) and higher discount rates (12-15%)
• Growth-value investors: Adjust growth rate (6-8%) for quality compounders
• Dividend investors: Focus on DDM value and Div/Share metrics
• Adjust forecast years based on business predictability (stable = 10 years, cyclical = 5 years)
5. Red Flags to Avoid:
• Negative EPS or FCF (red values in table) - proceed with caution
• Financial sector stocks - Use DDM and Graham, ignore DCF
• Price far above Graham (>1.5x) with red background = overvalued territory
• No fundamental data = "N/A" in table - stock may lack reporting or be too small
• Stock persistently below BVPS for extended periods - potential value trap or business in distress
• Price significantly above ALL models (BVPS, Graham, DCF) - sentiment-driven, lacks intrinsic value foundation (fragile)
⚠️ Important Value Investing Warnings:
• Value Trap Alert: A stock staying below BVPS for months/years may signal fundamental deterioration, asset impairments, or dying industry - not just "cheap." Investigate WHY it's cheap before buying
• Sentiment Bubble Risk: When price trades far above BVPS, Graham Number, AND DCF simultaneously, the stock has no intrinsic value basis. Examples: commodity stocks during boom cycles (gold miners in gold rallies), meme stocks, hype-driven sectors. These are highly fragile and vulnerable to mean reversion
• Cyclical Trap: Commodity/cyclical stocks can appear "cheap" at peak earnings (low P/E, high FCF) but are actually expensive. Normalize earnings across the cycle before valuing
• Quality Matters: Some excellent businesses (asset-light, high ROIC) naturally trade above book value. Don't avoid quality - adjust expectations for business model
6. Monitoring Positions:
• Watch for price approaching or exceeding Graham Number - consider taking profits
• Track EPS and FCF trends quarter-to-quarter in the table
• If fundamentals deteriorate (falling BVPS, negative FCF), reassess thesis
• Use background colors for quick visual check: green = hold/buy, red = overvalued
Perfect for:
Value investors seeking multi-model fundamental analysis, long-term investors comparing intrinsic value to market price, dividend investors evaluating yield stocks, and fundamental traders looking for entry/exit signals.
Note: Only works with stocks that have financial data available. Not applicable to crypto, forex, or futures. This indicator provides analysis tools; always conduct thorough research and due diligence before investing.
