SASDv2rSensitive Altcoin Season Detector V2
This Pine Script™ code, titled "SASDv2r" (Sensitive Altcoin Season Detector version 2 revised), is designed for cryptocurrency trading analysis on the TradingView platform and tailored for those interested in tracking when altcoins might be outperforming Bitcoin, potentially indicating a market shift towards altcoins.
Feel free to use and modify. If you made it better, please let me know. Intention was to help the community with a tool for retail traders have no access to advanced, MV indicators. Solution uses classic TA only.
Use it witl TOTAL3/BTC indicator.
Please check: it gave signal just before last alt season % rose more than 250%.
Market Cap Data Fetching: The script fetches market capitalization data for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all other altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) using request.security function.
Altcoin to Bitcoin Ratio: It calculates the ratio of total market cap of altcoins to Bitcoin's market cap (altToBtcRatio), which is central to identifying an "altcoin season."
Moving Averages: Several moving averages are computed for different time frames (50-day SMA, 200-day SMA, 20-day SMA, and 10-day EMA) to analyze trends in the altcoin to Bitcoin ratio.
Momentum Indicators: The script uses RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to gauge momentum and potential reversal points in the market.
Custom Indicators: It includes Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) and a custom momentum indicator (altMomentum and altMomentumAvg) to provide additional insights into market movements.
Volatility Measurement: Bollinger Bands are calculated to assess volatility in the altcoin to Bitcoin ratio, which helps identify periods of high or low market activity.
Visual Analysis: Various plots are added to the chart for visual interpretation, including the altcoin to Bitcoin ratio, different moving averages, and Bollinger Bands.
Alt Season Detection: The script defines conditions for detecting when an "altcoin season" might be starting, based on crossovers of moving averages, RSI levels, MACD signals, and other custom criteria.
Performance Tracking: After signaling an alt season, the script evaluates the performance over the next 30 days by checking if there's been an increase in the altcoin to Bitcoin ratio, adding labels for positive or negative trends.(this one is in progress). Logic still gives false signals and aim is to identify failed signals.
Visual Signals: Labels are placed on the chart to visually indicate the beginning of a potential alt season or the performance outcome after a signal, aiding traders in making informed decisions.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "bitcoin"
BTC-SPX Momentum Gauge + EMA SignalHere's an explanation of the market dynamics and signal benefits of this script:
Momentum and Sentiment Indicator:
The script uses the momentum of the S&P 500 to change the chart's background color, providing a quick visual cue of market sentiment. Green indicates potential bullish momentum in the broader market, while red suggests bearish momentum. This can help traders gauge overall market direction at a glance.
Bitcoin Trend Analysis:
By plotting the scaled TEMA of Bitcoin (BTC), traders can see how Bitcoin's trend correlates or diverges from the current asset being analyzed. Since Bitcoin is often viewed as a hedge against traditional financial systems or inflation, its trend can signal broader economic shifts or investor sentiment towards alternative investments.
Dual Trend Confirmation:
The script offers two trend lines: one for Bitcoin and one for the current ticker. When these lines move in tandem, it might indicate a strong market trend across both traditional and crypto markets. Divergence between these lines can highlight potential market anomalies or opportunities for arbitrage or hedging.
Smoothness vs. Reactivity:
The use of TEMA for Bitcoin provides a smoother signal than a simple moving average, reducing lag while still reacting to price changes. This can be particularly useful for identifying longer-term trends in Bitcoin's volatile market. The 20-period EMA for the current ticker, on the other hand, gives a quicker response to price changes in the asset you're directly trading.
Cross-Asset Correlation:
By overlaying Bitcoin's trend on another asset's chart, traders can analyze how these markets might influence each other. For instance, if Bitcoin is in an uptrend while a traditional asset is declining, it might suggest capital rotation into cryptocurrencies.
Trading Signals:
Crossovers or divergences between the TEMA of Bitcoin and the EMA of the current ticker could be used as signals for entry or exit points. For example, if the BTC TEMA crosses above the current ticker's EMA, it might suggest a shift towards crypto assets.
Risk Management:
The visual cues from the background color and moving averages can aid in risk management. For example, trading in the direction of the momentum indicated by the background color might be seen as going with the market flow, potentially reducing risk.
Macro-Economic Insights:
The relationship between Bitcoin and traditional markets can offer insights into macroeconomic conditions, particularly related to inflation, monetary policy, and investor sentiment towards fiat currencies.
Headwind and tailwind:
Currently BTC correlated trade instruments experience headwind or tailwind from the broader market. This indicator lets the user see it to help their trade decision process.
Additional Statement:
As the market realizes the dangers of the fiat that its construct is built upon and evolves and migrates into stable money, incorruptible by inflation, this indicator will reveal the external influence of that corruptible and the internal influence of the incorruptible; having diminishing returns as the rise of stable money overtakes the treasuries of the fiat construct.
Enhanced SPX and BTC Overlay with EMASPX-BTC Momentum Gauge and EMA Cross Indicator
Thorough Analysis:
• Combined Overlay (Green/Red Line):
o Function: Plots a wide line over the price chart, representing a composite of SPX and BTC dynamics adjusted by volume data.
o Color Coding:
Green: Indicates bullish conditions when the combined value exceeds its 10-period SMA and Bitcoin volume increases.
Red: Signals bearish conditions when the combined value drops below its 10-period SMA and Bitcoin volume decreases.
o Line Characteristics:
Width: Set at 8 for high visibility.
Transparency: 86% for both colors to overlay without obscuring candlesticks.
Scaling: Uses a factor of 0.02446 to amplify movements, making trend changes more noticeable.
• Continuous Bright Red and Green Lines:
o 20-period EMA of Current Ticker (Red):
Purpose: Acts as a medium-term trend indicator, smoothing price data to reflect the asset's general direction over time.
Color: Bright red for easy identification.
Transparency: 60% to keep it visible but not overpowering.
o 5-period EMA of BTC (Green):
Purpose: Provides insights into short-term Bitcoin momentum, capturing rapid changes in market sentiment.
Color: Bright green to distinguish from the red EMA.
Transparency: 30% for high visibility against price movements.
Detailed Analysis of the EMA Cross:
• Crossing Points:
o Bullish Crossover:
Occurs when the 5-period BTC EMA (green) moves above the 20-period EMA of the current ticker (red).
Suggests that Bitcoin's short-term momentum is gaining strength relative to the asset's medium-term trend, potentially signaling an upcoming uptrend or strengthening of an existing one.
o Bearish Crossover:
When the green line falls below the red, it indicates that Bitcoin's immediate momentum is weakening compared to the asset's medium-term trend, which might precede a downtrend or confirm one.
• Early Trade Signals:
o Entry/Exit Points:
These crossovers can guide traders in making timely decisions to enter or exit trades, especially when corroborated by the combined overlay's color.
o Confirmation:
EMA crossovers can confirm trends indicated by the combined overlay. For example, a bullish crossover with a green combined line could validate a buying opportunity.
o Volatility Insights:
The rapid shifts in Bitcoin's 5-period EMA highlight potential volatility spikes, offering an additional layer of market analysis, particularly useful in volatile markets.
• Strategic Use:
o Multi-Market Insight: The script integrates data from both traditional (SPX) and crypto (BTC) markets, allowing for a more comprehensive analysis of market conditions.
o Decision-Making: Provides traders with visual cues for market sentiment, trend direction, and potential reversals, enhancing strategic trading decisions.
o Trend Confirmation: The combination of EMA crossovers and the overlay's color changes offers a multi-faceted approach to trend confirmation or divergence.
In Summary:
• This script merges elements of traditional stock market analysis with cryptocurrency dynamics, utilizing color changes, line thickness, and EMA crossovers to visually communicate market conditions, offering traders a robust tool for analyzing and acting on market movements.
SOPR | QuantumResearchIntroducing Rocheur’s SOPR Indicator
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator by Rocheur is a powerful tool designed for analyzing Bitcoin market dynamics using on-chain data. By leveraging SOPR data and smoothing it through short- and long-term moving averages, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into market behavior, helping them identify trends, reversals, and potential trading opportunities.
Understanding SOPR and Its Role in Trading
SOPR is a metric derived from on-chain data that measures the profit or loss of spent outputs on the Bitcoin network. It reflects the behavior of market participants based on the price at which Bitcoin was last moved. When SOPR is above 1, it indicates that outputs are being spent at a profit. Conversely, values below 1 suggest that outputs are being spent at a loss.
Rocheur’s SOPR indicator enhances this raw data by incorporating short-term and long-term smoothed trends, allowing traders to observe shifts in market sentiment and momentum.
How It Works
Data Source: The indicator uses SOPR data from Glassnode’s BTC_SOPR metric, updated daily.
Short-Term Trend (STH SOPR):
A Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) is applied over a customizable short-term length (default: 150 days).
This reflects recent market participant behavior.
Long-Term Trend (1-Year SOPR):
A Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is applied over a customizable long-term length (default: 365 days).
This captures broader market trends and investor behavior.
Trend Comparison:
Bullish Market: When STH SOPR exceeds the 1-year SOPR, the market is considered bullish.
Bearish Market: When STH SOPR falls below the 1-year SOPR, the market is considered bearish.
Neutral Market: When the two values are equal, the market is neutral.
Visual Representation
The indicator provides a color-coded visual representation for easy trend identification:
Green Bars: Indicate a bullish market where STH SOPR is above the 1-year SOPR.
Red Bars: Represent a bearish market where STH SOPR is below the 1-year SOPR.
Gray Bars: Show a neutral market condition where STH SOPR equals the 1-year SOPR.
The dynamic bar coloring allows traders to quickly assess the prevailing market sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Customization & Parameters
The SOPR Indicator offers several customizable settings to adapt to different trading styles and preferences:
Short-Term Length: Default set to 150 days, defines the smoothing period for the STH SOPR .
Long-Term Length: Default set to 365 days, defines the smoothing period for the 1-year SOPR.
Color Modes: Choose from seven distinct color schemes to personalize the indicator’s appearance.
Final Note
Rocheur’s SOPR Indicator is a unique tool that combines on-chain data with technical analysis to provide actionable insights for Bitcoin traders. Its ability to blend short- and long-term trends with a visually intuitive interface makes it an invaluable resource for navigating market dynamics. As with all indicators, backtesting and integration into a comprehensive strategy are essential for optimizing performance.
2-Year MA Multiplier [UAlgo]The 2-Year MA Multiplier is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders and investors in identifying potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market. By plotting the 2-year moving average (MA) of an asset's closing price alongside an upper band set at five times this moving average, the indicator provides visual cues to assess long-term price trends and significant market movements.
🔶 Key Features
2-Year Moving Average (MA): Calculates the simple moving average of the asset's closing price over a 730-day period, representing approximately two years.
Visual Indicators: Plots the 2-year MA in forest green and the upper band in firebrick red for clear differentiation.
Fills the area between the 2-year MA and the upper band to highlight the normal trading range.
Uses color-coded fills to indicate overbought (tomato red) and oversold (cornflower blue) conditions based on the asset's closing price relative to the bands.
🔶 Idea
The concept behind the 2-Year MA Multiplier is rooted in the cyclical nature of markets, particularly in assets like Bitcoin. By analyzing long-term price movements, the indicator aims to identify periods of significant deviation from the norm, which may signal potential buying or selling opportunities.
2-year MA smooths out short-term volatility, providing a clearer view of the asset's long-term trend. This timeframe is substantial enough to capture major market cycles, making it a reliable baseline for analysis.
Multiplying the 2-year MA by five establishes an upper boundary that has historically correlated with market tops. When the asset's price exceeds this upper band, it may indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential for price correction. Conversely, when the price falls below the 2-year MA, it may signal oversold conditions, presenting potential buying opportunities.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Stablecoin Delta [SAKANE]Overview
Stablecoin Delta is an indicator designed to provide a detailed analysis of the market trends of major stablecoins (USDT and USDC). Stablecoins play a crucial role in supporting the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, and fluctuations in their supply significantly impact the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
This indicator leverages data from CryptoCap to visualize the daily changes in the market capitalization of stablecoins. Traders can use this tool to understand the effects of stablecoin supply fluctuations on the market in a timely manner, enabling more strategic investment decisions.
The key benefits include the ability to quickly monitor stablecoin supply changes, utilize this data as a supplementary tool for predicting Bitcoin price movements, and identify both short-term market movements and long-term trends. This indicator is valuable for traders of all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.
Features
- Support for USDT and USDC Market Cap
Monitor the market trends of these two major stablecoins using data from CryptoCap. Users can also choose to analyze only one of them.
- Daily Net Change Calculation
Calculates the daily change in market capitalization compared to the previous day, providing a clear view of trends.
- Flexible Smoothing Options
Apply either SMA or EMA smoothing for both the histogram and the line chart, based on user preference.
- Customizable Colors
Customize the colors for the histogram (positive/negative) and line chart for better visualization.
Visualization
- Histogram
Displays daily net changes as a histogram, with positive changes (green) and negative changes (red) clearly differentiated.
- Smoothed Line Chart
Provides a smoothed line chart to make trend identification easier.
Use Cases
- In-depth Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market
The supply of stablecoins is a critical factor influencing the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This indicator helps traders understand overall market liquidity, enabling more effective investment decisions.
- Short-Term and Long-Term Strategy Development
Trends derived from stablecoin supply fluctuations are essential for traders to gauge short-term price movements and long-term market flows.
- Real-Time Market Adjustment
In times of sudden market shifts, this tool enables traders to quickly assess changes in stablecoin supply and adjust their positions accordingly.
Future Plans
- Additional stablecoins will be considered for inclusion if their market share grows significantly.
Disclaimer
- This indicator relies on data from CryptoCap. The results are subject to the accuracy and timeliness of the data and should be used as reference information only.
Correlation Coefficient [Giang]### **Introduction to the "Correlation Coefficient" Indicator**
#### **Idea behind the Indicator**
The "Correlation Coefficient" indicator was developed to analyze the linear relationship between Bitcoin (**BTCUSD**) and other important economic indices or financial assets, such as:
- **SPX** (S&P 500 Index): Represents the U.S. stock market.
- **DXY** (Dollar Index): Reflects the strength of the USD against major currencies.
- **SPY** (ETF representing the S&P 500): A popular trading instrument.
- **GOLD** (Gold price): A traditional safe-haven asset.
The correlation between these assets can help traders understand how Bitcoin reacts to market movements of traditional financial instruments, providing opportunities for more effective trading decisions.
Additionally, the indicator allows users to **customize asset symbols for comparison**, not limited to the default indices (SPX, DXY, SPY, GOLD). This flexibility enables traders to tailor their analysis to specific goals and portfolios.
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#### **Significance and Use of Correlation in Trading**
**Correlation** is a measure of the linear relationship between two data series. In the context of this indicator:
- **The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to 1**:
- **1**: Perfect positive relationship (both increase or decrease together).
- **0**: No linear relationship.
- **-1**: Perfect negative relationship (one increases while the other decreases).
- **Use in trading**:
- Identify **strong relationships or unusual divergences** between Bitcoin and other assets.
- Help determine **market sentiment**: For example, if Bitcoin has a negative correlation with DXY, traders might expect Bitcoin to rise when the USD weakens.
- Provide a foundation for hedging strategies or investments based on inter-asset relationships.
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#### **Components of the Indicator**
The "Correlation Coefficient" indicator consists of the following key components:
1. **Main Data (BTCUSD)**:
- The closing price of Bitcoin is used as the central asset for calculations.
2. **Comparison Data**:
- Users can select different asset symbols for comparison. By default, the indicator supports:
- **SPX**: Stock market index.
- **DXY**: Dollar Index.
- **SPY**: Popular ETF.
- **GOLD**: Gold price.
3. **Correlation Coefficients**:
- Calculated between BTC and each comparison index, based on a Weighted Moving Average (WMA) over a user-defined period.
4. **Graphical Representation**:
- Displays individual correlation coefficients with each comparison index, making it easier for traders to track and analyze.
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#### **How to Analyze and Use the Indicator**
**1. Identify Key Correlations:**
- Observe the correlation lines between BTC and the indices to determine positive or negative relationships.
- Example:
- If the **Correlation Coefficient (BTC-DXY)** sharply declines to -1, this indicates that when USD strengthens, Bitcoin tends to weaken.
**2. Analyze the Strength of Correlations:**
- **Strong Correlations**: If the coefficient is close to 1 or -1, the relationship between the two assets is very clear.
- **Weak Correlations**: If the coefficient is near 0, Bitcoin may be influenced by other factors outside the compared index.
**3. Develop Trading Strategies:**
- Use correlations to predict Bitcoin's price movements:
- If BTC has an inverse relationship with **DXY**, traders might consider selling BTC when the USD strengthens.
- If BTC and **SPX** are strongly correlated, traders can monitor the stock market to predict Bitcoin's trend.
**4. Evaluate Changes Over Time:**
- Use different timeframes (daily, weekly) to track the correlation's fluctuations.
- Look for unusual signals, such as a breakdown or shift from positive to negative relationships.
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#### **Conclusion**
The "Correlation Coefficient" indicator is a powerful tool that helps traders analyze the relationship between Bitcoin and major financial indices. The ability to customize asset symbols for comparison makes the indicator flexible and suitable for various trading strategies. When used correctly, this indicator not only provides insights into market sentiment but also supports the development of intelligent trading strategies and optimized profits.
IlluminateThe Illuminate script predicts the potential range of Bitcoin's top and bottom prices based on a logarithmic regression model, referencing Bitcoin's historical price trends and halvings. This script is designed to provide valuable insights into Bitcoin's price dynamics and long-term trends using principles derived from the "Bitcoin Law."
Key Features
Power Law Trend Lines
Primary Trend:
Projects the general growth trajectory of Bitcoin prices over time based on a logarithmic power law.
Resistance Line:
Identifies a potential upper limit of Bitcoin prices during market peaks.
Includes an offset trendline for an additional buffer zone.
Support Line:
Represents a possible bottom for Bitcoin prices during market downturns.
Offset trendlines highlight potential zones of price fluctuation near the support line.
Fill Zones:
Between resistance and offset: Semi-transparent Red.
Between support and offset: Semi-transparent Green/Blue.
Bitcoin Halving Events
Automatically marks significant Bitcoin halving dates with yellow vertical lines and labeled annotations.
Current and future halvings (approximate) are included.
Trending Phase Indication
A dynamic visual color fill highlights different phases of Bitcoin's price evolution based on a 4-year cycle.
Colors: Red, Green, Blue, Orange (indicating each phase).
"Trending Phase" label provides insight into the current phase.
Interactive Inputs
Show/Hide Resistance: Toggle resistance trend lines.
Show/Hide Support: Toggle support trend lines.
Show/Hide Halving Dates: Toggle visibility of halving annotations.
Customizable Parameters
Fine-tune parameters (A and n) for the main trend line to match your analysis needs.
How to Use
Overlay Analysis:
Add this script to your TradingView chart for direct overlay on Bitcoin's price data.
Interpret the Zones:
Use the resistance and support lines as potential upper and lower bounds for price movements.
Analyze fill zones for areas of likely price oscillation.
Halving Significance:
Observe price behavior before and after halving dates, which historically influence market trends.
Long-Term Perspective:
The model is optimized for long-term projections, making it suitable for strategic, rather than short-term, trading decisions.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational purposes only and should not be used as investment advice. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Meme Coin Buy Signal Indicator by asharThis custom TradingView indicator is specifically designed for meme coins, using technical analysis indicators to identify optimal buy signals. It combines short-term moving averages, volume spikes, and Bitcoin trend alignment to pinpoint potential entry points during high-momentum periods.
Indicator Components:
Moving Averages (MA): A 5-period fast MA and a 13-period slow MA highlight short-term price momentum. Buy signals are generated when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA, indicating potential upward momentum.
Volume Spike Detection: The indicator detects high-volume periods using a multiplier. If the current volume exceeds the 10-period average volume by the set multiplier (default: 2.0), it indicates increased buying interest, which is crucial for meme coins.
Bitcoin Trend Alignment: The trend of Bitcoin, a market-wide sentiment indicator, is gauged with a 20-day moving average. Buy signals are validated only when Bitcoin is also in an uptrend, providing additional bullish confirmation for meme coins.
Buy Signal Criteria: A buy signal is triggered when:
The fast MA crosses above the slow MA.
Volume is above the average by the set multiplier.
The price is above the slow MA.
Bitcoin is trending up based on the 20-day moving average.
This indicator is ideal for meme coin traders looking to time entries with momentum-driven trends, aligning volume and trend indicators for a more comprehensive approach to high-risk assets.
MSTR-BTC PremiumThis custom indicator, “MSTR-BTC Premium with High, Average, and Low Levels,” helps you analyze the premium of MicroStrategy Incorporated’s (MSTR) stock price in relation to its Bitcoin holdings. By comparing the market capitalization of MSTR to the value of its Bitcoin holdings (using BTCUSD from Coinbase), this indicator calculates a premium that reflects how much the stock price deviates from its Bitcoin-related value.
Key Features:
• Premium Line: The primary feature is the “Premium,” which shows the ratio of MSTR’s market cap relative to its Bitcoin holdings and the BTCUSD price.
• High, Average, and Low Levels: The indicator calculates the highest, lowest, and average premium values over a user-defined period (default is 14 bars). These levels help identify overbought and oversold conditions relative to the stock’s Bitcoin valuation.
• Visual Shading: The area between the premium line and the average is shaded, making it easier to see when the premium is above or below its typical level. Optional shading is also available between the high and low levels to visualize the price range.
How to Use:
• Overbought/Undervalued Conditions: When the premium line rises significantly above the average, it may indicate that MSTR stock is overbought compared to its Bitcoin holdings. Conversely, when the premium falls below the average or approaches the low line, it might signal an undervalued opportunity.
• Trend and Mean Reversion: The high and low lines provide insight into extreme levels. Monitoring these alongside the average can assist in identifying potential mean reversion trades.
Customization:
• Calculation Period: The period for calculating the high, low, and average values can be adjusted to suit your trading strategy (default is 14).
• Shading Options: By default, the area between the premium and its average is shaded. You can enable or disable the shading between the high and low as needed.
This indicator is particularly useful for traders and investors following MicroStrategy (MSTR) and its Bitcoin strategy, providing a deeper understanding of the stock’s relationship to its underlying Bitcoin assets. It can assist in identifying key levels for decision-making based on deviations from historical norms.
How to Add the Indicator:
1. Adjust the calculation period (default is 14) to customize the analysis according to your preferred timeframe.
2. Watch for significant deviations of the premium line from its average to identify potential overbought/oversold conditions.
3. Use the high and low levels to help gauge extreme premium values and possible mean reversion opportunities.
Enjoy the analysis and make more informed decisions with the MSTR-BTC Premium Indicator!
This description should be clear and informative for anyone considering using your indicator. It highlights the functionality, purpose, and customization options in a straightforward way. Let me know if you’d like to tweak or adjust any part of it!
Advanced Economic Indicator by USCG_VetAdvanced Economic Indicator by USCG_Vet
tldr:
This comprehensive TradingView indicator combines multiple economic and financial metrics into a single, customizable composite index. By integrating key indicators such as the yield spread, commodity ratios, stock indices, and the Federal Reserve's QE/QT activities, it provides a holistic view of the economic landscape. Users can adjust the components and their weights to tailor the indicator to their analysis, aiding in forecasting economic conditions and market trends.
Detailed Description
Overview
The Advanced Economic Indicator is designed to provide traders and investors with a powerful tool to assess the overall economic environment. By aggregating a diverse set of economic indicators and financial market data into a single composite index, it helps identify potential turning points in the economy and financial markets.
Key Features:
Comprehensive Coverage: Includes 14 critical economic and financial indicators.
Customizable Components: Users can select which indicators to include.
Adjustable Weights: Assign weights to each component based on perceived significance.
Visual Signals: Clear plotting with threshold lines and background highlights.
Alerts: Set up alerts for when the composite index crosses user-defined thresholds.
Included Indicators
Yield Spread (10-Year Treasury Yield minus 3-Month Treasury Yield)
Copper/Gold Ratio
High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Stock Market Performance (S&P 500 Index - SPX)
Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Volatility Index (VIX)
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Housing Market Index (XHB)
Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
How to Use the Indicator
Configuring the Indicator:
Open Settings: Click on the gear icon (⚙️) next to the indicator's name.
Inputs Tab: You'll find a list of all components with checkboxes and weight inputs.
Including/Excluding Components
Checkboxes: Check or uncheck the box next to each component to include or exclude it from the composite index.
Default State: By default, all components are included.
Adjusting Component Weights:
Weight Inputs: Next to each component's checkbox is a weight input field.
Default Weights: Pre-assigned based on economic significance but fully adjustable.
Custom Weights: Enter your desired weight for each component to reflect your analysis.
Threshold Settings:
Bearish Threshold: Default is -1.0. Adjust to set the level below which the indicator signals potential economic downturns.
Bullish Threshold: Default is 1.0. Adjust to set the level above which the indicator signals potential economic upswings.
Setting the Timeframe:
Weekly Timeframe Recommended: Due to the inclusion of the Fed's balance sheet data (updated weekly), it's best to use this indicator on a weekly chart.
Changing Timeframe: Select 1W (weekly) from the timeframe options at the top of the chart.
Interpreting the Indicator:
Composite Index Line
Plot: The blue line represents the composite economic indicator.
Movement: Observe how the line moves relative to the threshold lines.
Threshold Lines
Zero Line (Gray Dotted): Indicates the neutral point.
Bearish Threshold (Red Dashed): Crossing below suggests potential economic weakness.
Bullish Threshold (Green Dashed): Crossing above suggests potential economic strength.
Background Highlights
Red Background: When the composite index is below the bearish threshold.
Green Background: When the composite index is above the bullish threshold.
No Color: When the composite index is between the thresholds.
Understanding the Components
1. Yield Spread
Description: The difference between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields.
Economic Significance: An inverted yield curve (negative spread) has historically preceded recessions.
2. Copper/Gold Ratio
Description: The price ratio of copper to gold.
Economic Significance: Copper is tied to industrial demand; gold is a safe-haven asset. The ratio indicates risk sentiment.
3. High Yield Spread (HYG/IEF Ratio)
Description: Ratio of high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) to intermediate-term Treasury bonds (IEF).
Economic Significance: Reflects investor appetite for risk; widening spreads can signal credit stress.
4. Stock Market Performance (SPX)
Description: S&P 500 Index levels.
Economic Significance: Broad measure of U.S. equity market performance.
5. Bitcoin Performance (BLX)
Description: Bitcoin Liquid Index price.
Economic Significance: Represents risk appetite in speculative assets.
6. Crude Oil Prices (CL1!)
Description: Front-month crude oil futures price.
Economic Significance: Influences inflation and consumer spending.
7. Volatility Index (VIX)
Description: Market's expectation of volatility (fear gauge).
Economic Significance: High VIX indicates market uncertainty; inverted in the indicator to align directionally.
8. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Description: Value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Economic Significance: Affects international trade and commodity prices; inverted in the indicator.
9. Inflation Expectations (TIP ETF)
Description: iShares TIPS Bond ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Reflects market expectations of inflation.
10. Consumer Confidence (XLY ETF)
Description: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for consumer confidence and spending.
11. Housing Market Index (XHB)
Description: SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF prices.
Economic Significance: Indicator of the housing market's health.
12. Manufacturing PMI (XLI ETF)
Description: Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund prices.
Economic Significance: Proxy for manufacturing activity.
13. Unemployment Rate (Inverse SPY as Proxy)
Description: Inverse of the SPY ETF price.
Economic Significance: Represents unemployment trends; higher inverse SPY suggests higher unemployment.
14. Federal Reserve QE/QT Activities (Fed Balance Sheet - WALCL)
Description: Total assets held by the Federal Reserve.
Economic Significance: Indicates liquidity injections (QE) or withdrawals (QT); impacts interest rates and asset prices.
Customization and Advanced Usage
Adjusting Weights:
Purpose: Emphasize components you believe are more predictive or relevant.
Method: Increase or decrease the weight value next to each component.
Example: If you think the yield spread is particularly important, you might assign it a higher weight.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading and investing involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Precision Cloud by Dr ABIRAM SIVPRASAD
Precision Cloud by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad"
The " Precision Cloud" script, created by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad, is a multi-purpose technical analysis tool designed for Forex, Bitcoin, Commodities, Stocks, and Options trading. It focuses on identifying key levels of support and resistance, combined with moving averages (EMAs) and central pivot ranges (CPR), to help traders make informed trading decisions. The script also provides a visual "light system" to highlight potential long or short positions, aiding traders in entering trades with a clear strategy.
Key Features of the Script:
Central Pivot Range (CPR):
The CPR is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close of the price, while the top and bottom pivots are derived from it. These act as dynamic support and resistance zones.
The script can plot daily CPR, support, and resistance levels (S1/R1, S2/R2, S3/R3) as well as optional weekly and monthly pivot points.
The CPR helps identify whether the price is in a bullish, bearish, or neutral zone.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Three daily support (S1, S2, S3) and resistance (R1, R2, R3) levels are plotted based on the CPR.
These levels act as potential reversal or breakout points, allowing traders to make decisions around key price points.
EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):
The script includes two customizable EMAs (default periods of 9 and 21). You can choose the source for these EMAs (open, high, low, or close).
The crossovers between EMA1 and EMA2 help identify potential trend reversals or momentum shifts.
Lagging Span:
The Lagging Span is plotted with a customizable displacement (default 26), which helps identify overall trend direction by comparing past price with the current price.
Light System:
A color-coded table provides a visual representation of market conditions:
Green indicates bullish signals (e.g., price above CPR, EMAs aligning positively).
Red indicates bearish signals (e.g., price below CPR, EMAs aligning negatively).
Yellow indicates neutral conditions, where there is no clear trend direction.
The system includes lights for CPR, EMA, Long Position, and Short Position, helping traders quickly assess whether the market is in a buying or selling opportunity.
Trading Strategies Using the Script
1. Forex Trading:
Trend-Following with EMAs: Use the EMA crossovers to capture trending markets in Forex. A green light for the EMA combined with a price above the daily or weekly pivot levels suggests a buying opportunity. Conversely, if the EMA light turns red and price falls below the CPR levels, look for shorting opportunities.
Reversal Strategy: Watch for price action near the daily S1/R1 levels. If price holds above S1 and the EMA is green, this could signal a reversal from support. The same applies to resistance levels.
2. Bitcoin Trading:
Momentum Breakouts: Bitcoin is known for its sharp moves. The script helps to identify breakouts from the CPR range. If the price breaks above the TC (Top Central Pivot) with bullish EMA alignment (green light), it could signal a strong uptrend.
Lagging Span Confirmation: Use the Lagging Span to confirm the trend direction. For Bitcoin's volatility, when the lagging span shows consistent alignment with the price and CPR, it often indicates continuation of the trend.
3. Commodities Trading:
Support/Resistance Bounce: Commodities such as gold and oil often react well to pivot levels. Look for price bouncing off S1 or R1 for potential entry points. A green CPR light along with price above the pivot range supports a bullish bias.
EMA Pullback Strategy: If price moves in a strong trend and pulls back to one of the EMAs, a green EMA light suggests re-entry on a pullback. If the EMA light is red and price breaks below the BC (Bottom Central Pivot), short positions could be considered.
4. Stocks Trading:
Long Position Strategy: For stocks, use the combination of the long position light turning green (price above TC and EMA alignment) as a signal to buy. This could be especially useful for riding bullish trends in growth stocks or during earnings seasons when volatility is high.
Short Position Strategy: If the short position light turns green, indicating price below BC and EMAs turning bearish, this could be an ideal setup for shorting overvalued stocks or during market corrections.
5. Options Trading:
Directional Bias for Options: The light system is particularly helpful for options traders. A green long position light provides a clear signal to buy call options, while a green short position light supports buying puts.
Pivot Breakout Strategy: Buy options (calls or puts) when the price breaks above resistance or below support, with confirmation from the CPR and EMA lights. This helps capture the sharp moves required for profitable options trades.
Conclusion
The S&R Precision Cloud script is a versatile tool for traders across markets, including Forex, Bitcoin, Commodities, Stocks, and Options. It combines critical technical elements like pivot ranges, support and resistance levels, EMAs, and the Lagging Span to provide a clear picture of market conditions. The intuitive light system helps traders quickly assess whether to take a long or short position, making it an excellent tool for both new and experienced traders.
The S&R Precision Cloud by Dr. Abhiram Sivprasad script is a technical analysis tool designed to assist traders in making informed decisions. However, it should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. The signals generated by the script are based on historical price data and technical indicators, which are inherently subject to market fluctuations and do not guarantee future performance.
Trading in Forex, Bitcoin, Commodities, Stocks, and Options carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should be aware of the risks involved and be willing to accept them before engaging in such activities. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor or professional before making any trading decisions.
The creators of this script are not responsible for any financial losses that may occur from its use. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and the use of this script is at your own risk.
BTC Power of Law x Central Bank LiquidityThis indicator combines Bitcoin's long-term growth model (Power Law) with global central bank liquidity to help identify potential buy and sell signals.
How it works:
Power Law Oscillator: This part of the indicator tracks how far Bitcoin's current price is from its expected long-term growth, based on an exponential model. It helps you see when Bitcoin may be overbought (too expensive) or oversold (cheap) compared to its historical trend.
Central Bank Liquidity: This measures the amount of money injected into the financial system by major central banks (like the Fed or ECB). When more money is printed, asset prices, including Bitcoin, tend to rise. When liquidity dries up, prices often fall.
By combining these two factors, the indicator gives you a more accurate view of Bitcoin's price trends.
How to interpret:
Green Line : Bitcoin is undervalued compared to its long-term growth, and the liquidity environment is supportive. This is typically a buy signal.
Yellow Line: Bitcoin is trading near its expected value, or there's uncertainty due to mixed liquidity conditions. This is a hold signal.
Red Line: Bitcoin is overvalued, or liquidity is tightening. This is a potential sell signal.
Zones:
The background will turn green when Bitcoin is in a buy zone and red when it's in a sell zone, giving you easy-to-read visual cues.
Black-Scholes option price model & delta hedge strategyBlack-Scholes Option Pricing Model Strategy
The strategy is based on the Black-Scholes option pricing model and allows the calculation of option prices, various option metrics (the Greeks), and the creation of synthetic positions through delta hedging.
ATTENTION!
Trading derivative financial instruments involves high risks. The author of the strategy is not responsible for your financial results! The strategy is not self-sufficient for generating profit! It is created exclusively for constructing a synthetic derivative financial instrument. Also, there might be errors in the script, so use it at your own risk! I would appreciate it if you point out any mistakes in the comments! I would be even more grateful if you send the corrected code!
Application Scope
This strategy can be used for delta hedging short positions in sold options. For example, suppose you sold a call option on Bitcoin on the Deribit exchange with a strike price of $60,000 and an expiration date of September 27, 2024. Using this script, you can create a delta hedge to protect against the risk of loss in the option position if the price of Bitcoin rises.
Another example: Suppose you use staking of altcoins in your strategies, for which options are not available. By using this strategy, you can hedge the risk of a price drop (Put option). In this case, you won't lose money if the underlying asset price increases, unlike with a short futures position.
Another example: You received an airdrop, but your tokens will not be fully unlocked soon. Using this script, you can fully hedge your position and preserve their dollar value by the time the tokens are fully unlocked. And you won't fear the underlying asset price increasing, as the loss in the event of a price rise is limited to the option premium you will pay if you rebalance the portfolio.
Of course, this script can also be used for simple directional trading of momentum and mean reversion strategies!
Key Features and Input Parameters
1. Option settings:
- Style of option: "European vanilla", "Binary", "Asian geometric".
- Type of option: "Call" (bet on the rise) or "Put" (bet on the fall).
- Strike price: the option contract price.
- Expiration: the expiry date and time of the option contract.
2. Market statistic settings:
- Type of price source: open, high, low, close, hl2, hlc3, ohlc4, hlcc4 (using hl2, hlc3, ohlc4, hlcc4 allows smoothing the price in more volatile series).
- Risk-free return symbol: the risk-free rate for the market where the underlying asset is traded. For the cryptocurrency market, the return on the funding rate arbitrage strategy is accepted (a special function is written for its calculation based on the Premium Price).
- Volatility calculation model: realized (standard deviation over a moving period), implied (e.g., DVOL or VIX), or custom (you can specify a specific number in the field below). For the cryptocurrency market, the calculation of implied volatility is implemented based on the product of the realized volatility ratio of the considered asset and Bitcoin to the Bitcoin implied volatility index.
- User implied volatility: fixed implied volatility (used if "Custom" is selected in the "Volatility Calculation Method").
3. Display settings:
- Choose metric: what to display on the indicator scale – the price of the underlying asset, the option price, volatility, or Greeks (all are available).
- Measure: bps (basis points), percent. This parameter allows choosing the unit of measurement for the displayed metric (for all except the Greeks).
4. Trading settings:
- Hedge model: None (do not trade, default), Simple (just open a position for the full volume when the strike price is crossed), Synthetic option (creating a synthetic option based on the Black-Scholes model).
- Position side: Long, Short.
- Position size: the number of units of the underlying asset needed to create the option.
- Strategy start time: the moment in time after which the strategy will start working to create a synthetic option.
- Delta hedge interval: the interval in minutes for rebalancing the portfolio. For example, a value of 5 corresponds to rebalancing the portfolio every 5 minutes.
Post scriptum
My strategy based on the SegaRKO model. Many thanks to the author! Unfortunately, I don't have enough reputation points to include a link to the author in the description. You can find the original model via the link in the code, as well as through the search indicators on the charts by entering the name: "Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model". I have significantly improved the model: the calculation of volatility, risk-free rate and time value of the option have been reworked. The code performance has also been significantly optimized. And the most significant change is the execution, with which you can now trade using this script.
Realized Price Oscillator [InvestorUnknown]Overview
The Realized Price Oscillator is a fundamental analysis tool designed to assess Bitcoin's price dynamics relative to its realized price. The indicator calculates various metrics using data from the realized market capitalization and total supply. It applies normalization techniques to scale values within a specified range, helping investors identify overbought or oversold conditions over the long time horizon. The oscillator also features DCA-based signals to assist in strategic market entry and exit.
Key Features
1. Normalization and Scaling:
The indicator scales values using a limit that can be adjusted for decimal precision (Limit). It allows for both positive and negative values, providing flexibility in analysis.
Decay functionality is included to progressively reduce the extreme values over time, ensuring recent data impacts the oscillator more than older data.
f_rescale(float value, float min, float max, float limit, bool negatives) =>
((limit * (negatives ? 2 : 1)) * (value - min) / (max - min)) - (negatives ? limit : 0)
2. Realized Price Oscillator Calculation:
Realized Price Oscillator is computed using logarithmic differences between the open, high, low, and close prices and the realized price. This helps in identifying how the current market price compares with the average cost basis of the Bitcoin supply.
f_realized_price_oscillator(float realized_price) =>
rpo_o = math.log(open / realized_price)
rpo_h = math.log(high / realized_price)
rpo_l = math.log(low / realized_price)
rpo_c = math.log(close / realized_price)
3. Oscillator Normalization:
The normalized oscillator calculates the range between the maximum and minimum values over time. It adjusts the oscillator values based on these bounds, considering a decay factor. This normalized range assists in consistent signal generation.
normalized_oscillator(float x, float b) =>
float oscillator = b
var float min = na
var float max = na
if (oscillator > max or na(max)) and time >= normalization_start_date
max := oscillator
if (min > oscillator or na(min)) and time >= normalization_start_date
min := oscillator
if time >= normalization_start_date
max := max * decay
min := min * decay
normalized_oscillator = f_rescale(x, min, max, lim, neg)
4. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Signals:
DCA-based signals are generated using user-defined thresholds (DCA IN and DCA OUT). The oscillator triggers buy signals when the normalized low value falls below the DCA IN threshold and sell signals when the normalized high value exceeds the DCA OUT threshold.
5. Visual Representation:
The indicator plots candlestick representations of the normalized Realized Price Oscillator values (open, high, low, close) over time, starting from a specified date (plot_start_date).
Colors are dynamically adjusted using a gradient to represent the state of the oscillator, ranging from green (buy zone) to red (sell zone). Background and bar colors also change based on DCA conditions.
How It Works
Data Sourcing: Realized price data is sourced using Bitcoin’s realized market cap (BTC_MARKETCAPREAL) and total supply (BTC_SUPPLY).
Realized Price Oscillator Metrics: Logarithmic differences between price and realized price are computed to generate Realized Price Oscillator values for open, high, low, and close.
Normalization: The indicator rescales the oscillator values based on a defined limit, adjusting for negative values if allowed. It employs a decay factor to reduce the influence of historical extremes.
Conclusion
The Realized Price Oscillator is a sophisticated tool that combines market price analysis with realized price metrics to offer a robust framework for understanding Bitcoin's valuation. By leveraging normalization techniques and DCA thresholds, it provides actionable insights for long-term investing strategies.
Innocent Heikin Ashi Ethereum StrategyHello there, im back!
If you are familiar with my previous scripts, this one will seem like the future's nostalgia!
Functionality:
As you can see, all candles are randomly colored. This has no deeper meaning, it should remind you to switch to Heikin Ashi. The Strategy works on standard candle stick charts, but should be used with Heikin Ashi to see the actual results. (Regular OHLC calculations are included.)
Same as in my previous scripts we import our PVSRA Data from @TradersReality open source Indicator.
With this data and the help of moving averages, we have got an edge in the market.
Signal Logic:
When a "violently green" candle appears (high buy volume + tick speed) above the 50 EMA indicates a change in trend and sudden higher prices. Depending on OHLC of the candle itself and volume, Take Profit and Stop Loss is calculated. (The price margin is the only adjustable setting). Additionally, to make this script as simple and easily useable as possible, all other adjustable variables have been already set to the best suitable value and the chart was kept plain, except for the actual entries and exits.
Basic Settings and Adjustables:
Main Input 1: TP and SL combined price range. (Double, Triple R:R equally.)
Trade Inputs: All standard trade size and contract settings for testing available.
Special Settings:
Checkbox 1: Calculate Signal in Heikin Ashi chart, including regular candle OHLC („Open, High, Low, Close“)
Checkbox 2/3: Calculate by order fill or every tick.
Checkbox 4: Possible to fill orders on bar close.
Timeframe and practical usage:
Made for the 5 Minute to 1 hour timeframe.
Literally ONLY works on Ethereum and more or less on Bitcoin.
EVERY other asset has absolute 0% profitability.
Have fun and share with your friends!
Thanks for using!
Example Chart:
Risk Appetite & Directional Bias [NariCapitalTrading]Guide to the Risk Appetite & Directional Bias Indicator
This indicator is a tool designed to capture the relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 (but could be any two assets of your choice, theoretically). This post aims to provide a detailed overview of the logic, components, and implementation of the indicator.
1. Introduction
This indicator leverages the relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to provide insights into the directional bias of the S&P 500 based on Bitcoin's movements. The premise is that Bitcoin, due to its 24/7 trading nature, often leads SP500 price movements. By dynamically adjusting the influence (beta) of Bitcoin based on historical data, this indicator aims to capture shifts in market sentiment or "risk appetite."
2. Core Concepts
a. Dynamic Weighting
The indicator uses a dynamic weighting mechanism to adjust the influence of Bitcoin on the S&P 500. The weight is based on the correlation between Bitcoin's and the S&P 500's returns, normalized by their respective volatilities.
// Calculate rolling correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500
btcSp500Correlation = ta.correlation(btcChange, sp500Change, lookbackPeriod)
// Dynamic adjustment factor for Bitcoin influence on S&P 500
dynamicBtcWeight = btcWeightInput * btcSp500Correlation / normalizedBtcVolatility
b. Percentage Change and Volatility
Percentage change and volatility are critical components of the indicator. They are calculated for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to understand their respective behaviors over a defined lookback period.
// Function to calculate percentage change
f_change(src) =>
ta.change(src) * 100
// Function to calculate volatility
f_volatility(src, period) =>
ta.stdev(f_change(src), period)
These functions calculate the percentage change and standard deviation (volatility) of the asset prices.
c. Normalization
Normalization is applied to Bitcoin's volatility relative to the S&P 500's volatility to ensure that the influence of Bitcoin is appropriately scaled. This prevents Bitcoin's typically higher volatility from overwhelming the analysis.
// Normalize Bitcoin's volatility against S&P 500's volatility
normalizedBtcVolatility = sp500Volatility != 0 ? btcVolatility / sp500Volatility : na
3. Indicator Logic
The indicator's logic involves combining the historical change of the S&P 500 with the dynamically weighted influence of Bitcoin's change. The output is an "adjusted change" that reflects this combined impact.
// Combine the Bitcoin influence with S&P 500's historical change
adjustedChange = sp500Change + (dynamicBtcWeight * btcChange)
This adjusted change is used to determine the directional bias, categorized as "Bullish," "Bearish," or "Neutral."
4. Visualization
The indicator visualizes the predicted price of the S&P 500 based on the adjusted change. It uses different colors to represent different biases.
// Plot the predicted price with color indication based on bias
plotColor = bias == "Bullish" ? color.green : bias == "Bearish" ? color.red : color.blue
plot(predictedPrice, color=plotColor, title="Predicted SP500 Price", linewidth=2, style=plot.style_line)
Additionally, the adjusted change is plotted as a histogram.
5. Use Cases and Practical Applications
The indicator is particularly useful for day traders and swing traders who seek to anticipate market moves before they are fully reflected in traditional equity markets. This may/will require some parameter tuning and optimization on your part (the user).
For other researchers and quants: the dynamic weighting mechanism offers an example of how cross-asset relationships can be modeled and incorporated into pinescript studies.
6. Customization
Users can customize several aspects of the indicator:
Lookback Period: Defines the period over which correlation and volatility are calculated.
EMA Period: Adjusts the sensitivity of the indicator.
Initial Weight of Bitcoin Influence: Sets the starting point for Bitcoin's impact, which is then dynamically adjusted.
Short Term Holder MVRVShort-Term Holder MVRV is an indicator designed to assess the ratio between the Market Value and the Realized Value of Bitcoin that has been held for less than 155 days.
Market Value is calculated as the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by its circulating supply.
[ Realized Value is derived by multiplying the realized price of Bitcoin (the price at which the coins last moved) by the circulating supply. It represents the total cost basis of all Bitcoin held by short-term holders.
Key Interpretations:
Indicator Value < 1: When this metric is below 1, it suggests that the market value of Bitcoin held by short-term holders is lower than their cost basis (Realized Value), meaning they are, on average, holding at a loss. The lower this value, the greater the average loss.
Indicator Value > 1: When the metric exceeds 1, it indicates that the market value is higher than the realized value, signifying that short-term holders are, on average, in profit. The higher this value, the greater the average profit.
Indicator Value = 1: The value of 1 is seen as a breakeven point for short-term investors, often acting as a critical support or resistance level for Bitcoin's price.
BTC - Power Law OscillatorDescription:
The BTC - Power Law Oscillator is a technical analysis tool designed to help traders and investors identify potential overbought and oversold conditions in the Bitcoin market. This oscillator is based on a power law model that approximates Bitcoin's historical price trajectory, providing a framework for understanding deviations from this trajectory over time.
Key Features:
Exponential Model: The oscillator uses an exponential model that represents Bitcoin's price growth over time since its inception on January 3, 2009. This model is mathematically expressed as:
price=exp(5.71×ln(days since inception)−38.16)
This captures the long-term growth trend of Bitcoin, allowing for the analysis of deviations from this model.
Deviation Analysis: The Power Law Oscillator measures the percentage deviation of Bitcoin's closing price from the model price. This deviation is expressed as a percentage to illustrate how far the current price is from the expected model trajectory.
Normalization: The oscillator values are normalized to a 0-100 range. A quadratic transformation is applied to enhance sensitivity to higher values, allowing for better visualization and interpretation of extreme conditions.
Bands and Zones:
Upper Band (50): Indicates the 20% threshold. Values above this band suggest overbought conditions, where Bitcoin's price may be significantly above the expected trajectory.
Lower Band (15): Indicates the 5% threshold. Values below this band suggest oversold conditions, where Bitcoin's price may be significantly below the expected trajectory.
Top Zone: The area above the upper band is shaded red, highlighting potential sell or caution areas.
Bottom Zone: The area below the lower band is shaded green, highlighting potential buy or accumulation areas.
Benefits:
Trend Analysis: Helps identify long-term trends and potential reversals by analyzing price deviations from a theoretical model based on historical growth.
Market Timing: Assists in market timing decisions by indicating overbought and oversold conditions with visual bands and zones.
Enhanced Sensitivity: The quadratic normalization enhances sensitivity to changes in the oscillator, providing clearer signals for traders.
Usage Tips:
Complementary Tool: Use this oscillator in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for more comprehensive market insights.
Risk Management: Always employ sound risk management strategies when trading, as no single indicator can guarantee accurate predictions.
Market Context: Consider the broader market context, as Bitcoin's volatility can lead to significant short-term fluctuations.
The BTC - Power Law Oscillator provides a unique perspective on Bitcoin's price movements by leveraging a mathematical model to understand historical growth trends and deviations. Use this tool to gain deeper insights into market dynamics and enhance your trading strategy.
BTC Hash Rate to Price RatioDescription:
The BTC Hash Rate to Price Ratio indicator is a sophisticated tool designed to assist traders in identifying potential market turning points for Bitcoin by combining network health, market sentiment, and valuation metrics. This indicator integrates three key components—Hash Rate, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)—to provide a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's market dynamics.
Key Features:
Hash Rate Analysis: Assesses the computational power of the Bitcoin network, reflecting network health and miner confidence. Changes in the hash rate can signal shifts in market sentiment.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, identifying overbought or oversold conditions. Smoothed RSI provides clearer insights into market momentum.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): A valuation metric comparing Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, offering insights into whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. Smoothed MVRV enhances signal accuracy.
How It Works:
Red Zones (Sell Signals): Highlighted when both the MVRV and RSI are above the hash rate, indicating potential market tops.
Green Zones (Buy Signals): Highlighted when both the MVRV and RSI are below the hash rate and MVRV is under 15, suggesting potential market bottoms.
Customizable Parameters: Allows traders to adjust smoothing periods and signal thresholds, tailoring the indicator to different trading strategies and market conditions.
Visual Aids: Includes dotted lines at key RSI levels (15 and 75) for quick reference to potential overbought and oversold conditions.
Benefits:
Comprehensive Analysis: Combines technical, fundamental, and network metrics to offer a well-rounded perspective on market conditions.
Early Warning Signals: Aims to provide early indications of potential market reversals, helping traders make informed decisions.
Flexibility: Suitable for both short-term and long-term trading strategies, allowing for adaptation to various market environments.
Usage Tips:
Use this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamental insights for best results.
Consider the broader market context and macroeconomic factors when interpreting signals.
Practice sound risk management techniques to optimize trading performance.
Unlock the potential of your Bitcoin trading strategy with the BTC Hash Rate to Price Ratio indicator, and gain deeper insights into market dynamics to make more informed trading decisions.
Futures Settlement [NeoButane]Traders use settlement prices as both support/resistance and as a target for price to trend towards. The intention of this script is to provide possible entry and exit levels for swing and scalp trades by drawing horizontal lines of true settlement prices provided by TradingView.
The settlement price, which is calculated daily, is used to determine the profit/loss of a trader's futures position. Prior to the daily close, price settlement of futures contracts is performed by taking the average of its traded price during a specified period of time.
Usage
The settlement prices, shown as horizontal lines, serve as support or resistance for entry or exit. There are hundreds of ways to combine this with favorite indicators, or it can be used as levels for pure price action traders.
See how settlement price levels can be used in confluence with oscillators.
Configuration
Toggles to show each settlement. Reprint shows prior weeks or months after they've ended. Back-adjusted futures, which affect expired futures price history on continuous futures charts, should only be enabled on non-standard charts to match the user's chart settings.
What this script does
This script plots the daily, weekly, and monthly settlements for futures, including an average for the two most recent weekly or monthly settlements. The weekly settlement uses the last day of the week's daily settlement and the monthly settlement uses the last day of the month's daily settlement. For symbols that do not have settlement prices, which will be almost if not all symbols that are not futures, the settlement price instead becomes price at the last second before the daily/weekly/monthly close. In those cases, this script becomes a tool for automatically plotting daily/weekly/monthly closes.
See below for two different bitcoin charts. The chart on top is a non-futures chart and a futures chart is at the bottom. Note that CME bitcoin futures settle 4 hours (1500 CST) before bitcoin's daily close (UTC).
How this script works
TradingView has a built-in ability to display daily settlements instead of the actual daily close. This can be enabled in chart settings for futures on the daily timeframe and there is an argument for Pine Script to do so as well. Because settlement times are different for multiple products during the day, the script uses the settlement price from daily timeframe, which is guaranteed to be correct because TradingView is wonderful. I accidentally found the undocumented backadjustment and settlement_at_close when I was trying to use ticker.inherit() to create a symbol with its daily close time changed to another symbol's, which I still haven't figured out. TradingView has since added documentation for both of them, but there's still an ambiguous 'etc.' in the description of ticker.inherit() so maybe there's more secret arguments...
The script is able to be used on non-standard charts by using ticker.standard(), but back-adjustment will need to be changed by input to match chart settings.
References
Investopedia explanation of settlement price.
www.investopedia.com
Settlement prices for ES.
www.cmegroup.com
CME summary of settlement price.
www.cmegroup.com
How to enable settlement price as close for daily intervals in TradingView. This does not affect the use of this script.
www.tradingview.com
About back-adjustment for continuous futures charts in TradingView.
www.tradingview.com
Fibo Level DailyOverview
The "Fibo Level Daily" strategy is designed for trading Bitcoin (BTC) using the 1-hour timeframe. This strategy relies on Fibonacci levels calculated from the previous day's range and determines entry and exit points based on whether the previous daily candle was bullish or bearish.
How It Works
Fibonacci Levels Calculation:
The indicator calculates Fibonacci levels (0.8, 0.5, and 0.2) based on the high and low of the previous day.
The levels are calculated as follows:
0.8: This level is calculated by multiplying the difference between the previous day's high and low by 0.8 and adding the result to the previous day's low.
0.5: This is the midpoint of the previous day's range.
0.2: This level is calculated by multiplying the difference between the previous day's high and low by 0.2 and adding the result to the previous day's low.
Identifying the Previous Day's Trend:
The indicator checks if the previous daily candle closed bullish (close greater than open) or bearish (close less than open).
Setting Entry and Take Profit Levels:
If the previous daily candle was bearish:
Sell Entry: Wait for the price to rise to the 0.5 level (midpoint of the previous day's range) to enter a sell position.
Take Profit: The profit target is set at the 0.2 level.
If the previous daily candle was bullish:
Buy Entry: Wait for the price to drop to the 0.5 level (midpoint of the previous day's range) to enter a buy position.
Take Profit: The profit target is set at the 0.8 level.
Visual Representation on the Chart:
The indicator draws horizontal lines on the chart representing the Fibonacci levels (0.8, 0.5, and 0.2) from the previous day. These lines help visualize entry and exit points clearly.
Additionally, the last 15 minutes of the daily session are highlighted with a light red background to indicate the session's end.
Conditions of Use:
Timeframe: This indicator is specifically designed for use on the 1-hour timeframe.
Assets: While it can be used on any asset, it is optimized for trading Bitcoin (BTC).
Steps to Use the Indicator
Add the Indicator:
Insert the "Fibo Level Daily" indicator script into your trading platform (such as TradingView).
Select Timeframe:
Change the chart timeframe to 1 hour.
Interpret the Levels:
Observe the horizontal lines drawn on the chart representing the Fibonacci levels.
Identify whether the previous daily candle was bullish or bearish.
Wait for the Entry Price:
For a bearish previous daily candle: Wait for the price to rise to the 0.5 level to enter a sell position.
For a bullish previous daily candle: Wait for the price to drop to the 0.5 level to enter a buy position.
Set the Profit Target:
For a sell: Set your profit target at the 0.2 level.
For a buy: Set your profit target at the 0.8 level.
Execute the Trade:
Initiate the trade once the price reaches the entry level and set your take profit according to the identified trend from the previous day.
Conclusion
The "Fibo Level Daily" strategy provides a clear and precise methodology for identifying entry and exit points in Bitcoin using Fibonacci levels. By following this step-by-step guide, any trader can take advantage of market movements based on the previous day's price action, optimizing their trading opportunities on the 1-hour timeframe.
[Suitable Hope] Crypto Upside Model 3.0The "Crypto Upside Model 3.0" indicator dynamically calculates the potential price of any cryptocurrency based on various percentages of Ethereum or Bitcoin's market capitalization.
By fetching and analyzing marketcap data from TradingView sources, it allows traders to visualize potential price targets if their chosen cryptocurrency reaches specific market dominance levels. This tool is designed for daily timeframe analysis and can be used to set informed price expectations and strategic investment goals, providing valuable insights for long-term investment planning.
Why using the Crypto Upside Model 3.0?
Strategic Planning: Helps traders and investors set realistic price targets and investment goals by visualizing potential market cap scenarios.
Informed Decision-Making: Provides a data-driven approach to understanding how a cryptocurrency might perform relative to major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Customizable Analysis: Allows users to choose different comparison assets (ETH or BTC) and visualize various market cap dominance percentages, offering tailored insights.
Daily Timeframe Focus: Ideal for swing traders and long-term investors who operate on a daily analysis timeframe, providing relevant and actionable data.
Bull Markets: Identify potential price targets if your cryptocurrency's market cap increases significantly.
Bear Markets: Assess how much value could be retained relative to major cryptocurrencies.
Strategic Entry/Exit Points: Use the visualized targets to plan entry or exit points in your trading strategy.
Comparative Advantage
Dynamic Adaptation: Unlike fixed indicators, this tool adapts to any active chart, making it versatile for multiple cryptocurrencies.
Market Cap Insights: Provides a unique perspective by linking price targets to market cap dominance, a critical factor in the crypto market.
User Instructions
Setup: Add the " Upside Model 3.0" indicator to your TradingView chart.
Configuration: Use the input settings to select the comparison cryptocurrency (ETH or BTC) and enable the desired market cap percentage plots.
Analysis: The indicator will display potential price targets based on the selected market cap percentages, providing a visual guide for setting price expectations.
Limitations
Marketcap Data Availability: The indicator relies on marketcap data from TradingView, which may not be available for all cryptocurrencies. If the data is unavailable, the indicator will not function for that asset. This tool is more likely to work with older, established cryptocurrencies, as marketcap data for newer cryptocurrencies may not yet be available.
Daily Timeframe Restriction: The indicator is designed to work exclusively on the daily timeframe, limiting its applicability for intraday trading.
Assumptions of Market Dynamics: The calculations assume a direct correlation between market dominance and price, which may not account for other market dynamics and external factors influencing prices.
Data Accuracy: The accuracy of the indicator depends on the reliability of the data provided by TradingView, which may sometimes experience delays or inaccuracies.
Currently available cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Binance Coin, Cardano, Ripple, Polkadot, Avalanche, Chainlink, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Terra, Uniswap, VeChain, Stellar, Internet Computer, Hedera, Filecoin, Monero, Aave, TRON, NEAR Protocol, Compound, Maker,... For all compatible cryptocurrencies, please consult CRYPTOCAP's documentation.
Final notes
Although various sources ask a payment or user data for similar kind of private indicators, this one is entirely free and open source. "Uncanny" isn't it? I hope this indicator will provide you value. Feel free to leave a message if you have any questions or constructive feedback.
Examples of how I use this indicator
When using ETH's historical price as a reference compared to Bitcoin's marketcap, we can notice that price generally has been held between the +-30% and 50% lines of BTC's marketcap. If history is repeating again, we can expect major resistances around the 50% looking ahead into the future. This for me would be a great area to potentially reduce my ETH spot position.
When using SOL's historical price action, we can notice that the 15% line of ETH's marketcap has been a top in the previous cycle. Today SOL (July 2024), is back at this level. Could this be a top again or could price break this 15% level and head perhaps towards 30% which currently sits around $260? Time will tell.
These are 2 simple example of how I interpret the data. I'm keen to hear what other findings with other pairs you can find.
