Financial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) — US10Y brake on USIRYYFinancial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) – US10Y Brake on USIRYY
Concept
The Financial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) measures how U.S. long-term yields (US10Y) interact with the Federal Funds Rate (USINTR) and inflation (CPI YoY) to shape real-rate conditions (USIRYY).
It visualizes whether the bond market is tightening or loosening overall financial conditions relative to the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Formula
FCBI = (US10Y) − (USINTR) − (CPI YoY)
How It Works
The FCBI expresses the difference between the long-term yield curve and short-term policy rates, adjusted for inflation. It shows whether the long end of the curve is amplifying or counteracting the Fed’s stance.
FCBI > +2 → Strong brake → Long yields remain elevated despite easing → tight conditions → recession delayed.
FCBI +1 to +2 → Mild brake → Financial transmission slower; lag ≈ 12–18 months.
FCBI 0 to +1 → Neutral → Typical early post-cut environment.
FCBI < 0 → Accelerator → Long yields and inflation expectations falling → liquidity flows freely → recession often follows within 6–14 months.
How to Read the Chart
Blue line (FCBI) shows the strength of the financial brake.
Red line (USIRYY) represents the real yield baseline.
Recession shading (gray) marks NBER recessions for comparison.
FCBI < USIRYY → Brake engaged → financial conditions tighter than real-rate baseline.
FCBI > USIRYY → Brake released → long end easing faster than policy → liquidity surge → late-cycle setup.
Historically, U.S. recessions begin on average about 14 months after the first Fed rate cut, and a decline of the FCBI below zero often precedes that window.
Practical Use
Use the FCBI to identify when policy transmission is blocked (brake engaged) or flowing (brake released).
Cross-check with yield-curve inversions, Fed policy shifts, and inflation expectations to estimate macro timing windows.
Current Example (Oct 2025)
FCBI ≈ −3.1, USIRYY ≈ +3.0 → Brake still engaged.
Once FCBI rises above USIRYY and crosses positive, it signals the “brake released” phase — historically the final liquidity surge before a U.S. recession.
Summary
FCBI shows how tight the brake is.
USIRYY shows how fast the car is moving.
When FCBI rises above USIRYY, the brake is released — liquidity accelerates and the historical recession countdown begins.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "curve"
Golden Cross 50/200Simplicity characterizes each of my trading systems and methods. On this occasion, I present a trend-following strategy with simple rules and high profitability.
System Rules:
-Long entries when the 50 EMA crosses above the 200 EMA.
-Stop Loss (SL) placed at the low of 15 candles prior to the entry candle.
-Take Profit (TP) triggered when the 50 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA.
As with any trend-following system, we sacrifice win rate for profitability, and of course, we will focus on traditional markets with a consistent trend-following nature over time.
Recommended Markets and Timeframes:
BTCUSDT H6
August 17, 2017 - October 20, 2025 Total trades: 30
Profitability: +1,682.99%
Win rate: 40%
Outperforms Buy & Hold
BTCUSDT H4
August 17, 2017 - October 20, 2025 Total trades: 42
Profitability: +12,213.49% (high and stable performance curve)
Win rate: 40%
Outperforms Buy & Hold
BTCUSDT H2
August 17, 2017 - October 20, 2025 Total trades: 95
Profitability: +2,363.80%
Win rate: 24.21%
Matches Buy & Hold
BTCUSDT H1
August 17, 2017 - October 20, 2025 Total trades: 203
Profitability: +1,045% (stable performance curve)
Win rate: 25.62%
BTCUSDT 30M
August 17, 2017 - October 20, 2025 Total trades: 393
Profitability: +4,205.51% (high and stable performance curve)
Win rate: 27.74%
Outperforms Buy & Hold
BTCUSDT 15M
August 17, 2017 - October 20, 2025 Total trades: 821
Profitability: +1,311.97%
Win rate: 23.14%
Timeframes such as Daily, 12-hour, 8-hour, and even 5-minute charts are profitable with this system, so feel free to experiment.
Other markets and timeframes to observe include:
-XAUUSD (H1, H4, H6, H8, Daily)
-SPX (Daily: +21,302% profitability since 1871 in 40 trades)
-Tesla (H1, H2, H4, H6, especially M30 and M15)
-Apple (M5, M15, M30, H1, H2, H4…)
-Warner Bros (M5, M15, M30…)
-GOOGL (M5, M15, M30, H1, H2, H4, H6…)
-AMZN (M5, M15, M30, H2, H4, H6…)
-META (M5, M15, M30, H1, H2, H4…)
-NVDA (M5, M15, M30, H1, H2, H4…)
This system not only generates significant profitability but also performs very well in traditional markets, even on lower timeframes like 5-minute charts. In many cases, the returns far exceed Buy & Hold.
I hope this strategy is useful to you. Follow my Spanish-speaking profile if you want to see my market analyses, and send me your good vibes!
Chart Fusion Line SND Detection by TitikSona🧭 Overview
Fusion Line Momentum Analyzer is a momentum visualization tool that introduces a unified model of oscillator fusion.
It blends Fast and Slow Stochastics with RSI into one adaptive curve, designed to eliminate conflicting signals between different momentum sources.
Instead of reading three separate oscillators, the Fusion Line provides a consolidated view of strength and exhaustion zones in a single framework.
This approach helps analysts detect aligned momentum shifts with greater clarity and less noise, without repainting or lagging methods.
⚙️ Core Concept
Traditional oscillators often provide conflicting readings when volatility changes.
To solve this, the Fusion Line averages three normalized components:
Fast Stochastic (12,3,3) — reacts quickly to short-term momentum spikes.
Slow Stochastic (100,8,8) — filters long-term momentum context.
RSI (26) — measures internal strength between buying and selling pressure.
Each is rescaled to a 0–100 range, then averaged into a single curve called the Fusion Line.
A secondary Signal Line (SMA 9) is added to visualize directional confirmation.
This combination aims to preserve responsiveness from the fast components while maintaining structural stability from the slow and RSI layers.
🌈 Features
Unified momentum curve combining stochastic and RSI dynamics.
Automatic bias shading to highlight dominant trend direction.
Real-time percentage strength meter (visual intensity).
Configurable alert triggers on key momentum zones (20/80).
Clean chart display without unnecessary elements or overlays.
📘 Interpretation
Rising Fusion Line → indicates strengthening bullish momentum.
Falling Fusion Line → indicates strengthening bearish pressure.
Fusion values below 20 → potential oversold recovery.
Fusion values above 80 → possible exhaustion or reversal zone.
Mid-zone movement → reflects equilibrium or sideways momentum.
These readings should always be combined with higher timeframe structure or volume confirmation for context.
⚙️ Default Parameters
Fast Stochastic (12,3,3)
Slow Stochastic (100,8,8)
RSI Length (26)
Signal Line Smoothing (9)
All values can be adjusted to adapt to asset volatility or timeframe conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is a research and visualization tool, not a signal generator.
It does not predict price movement or guarantee performance.
Use for analytical purposes only and combine with your own trading framework.
👨💻 Developer
Created by TitikSona — Research & Fusion Concept Designer
Built using Pine Script v6
Type: Open-source educational script
💬 Short Description
Fusion-based momentum visualization combining Double Stochastic and RSI into one adaptive line for clearer, noise-free momentum analysis.
Luxy Momentum, Trend, Bias and Breakout Indicators V7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
This is Version 7 (V7) - the latest and most optimized release. If you are using any older versions (V6, V5, V4, V3, etc.), it is highly recommended to replace them with V7.
Why This Indicator is Different
Who Should Use This
Core Components Overview
The UT Bot Trading System
Understanding the Market Bias Table
Candlestick Pattern Recognition
Visual Tools and Features
How to Use the Indicator
Performance and Optimization
FAQ
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### CREDITS & ATTRIBUTION
This indicator implements proven trading concepts using entirely original code developed specifically for this project.
### CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS
• UT Bot ATR Trailing System
- Original concept by @QuantNomad: (search "UT-Bot-Strategy"
- Our version is a complete reimplementation with significant enhancements:
- Volume-weighted momentum adjustment
- Composite stop loss from multiple S/R layers
- Multi-filter confirmation system (swing, %, 2-bar, ZLSMA)
- Full integration with multi-timeframe bias table
- Visual audit trail with freeze-on-touch
- NOTE: No code was copied - this is a complete reimplementation with enhancements.
• Standard Technical Indicators (Public Domain Formulas):
- Supertrend: ATR-based trend calculation with custom gradient fills
- MACD: Gerald Appel's formula with separation filters
- RSI: J. Welles Wilder's formula with pullback zone logic
- ADX/DMI: Custom trend strength formula inspired by Wilder's directional movement concept, reimplemented with volume weighting and efficiency metrics
- ZLSMA: Zero-lag formula enhanced with Hull MA and momentum prediction
### Custom Implementations
- Trend Strength: Inspired by Wilder's ADX concept but using volume-weighted pressure calculation and efficiency metrics (not traditional +DI/-DI smoothing)
- All code implementations are original
### ORIGINAL FEATURES (70%+ of codebase)
- Multi-Timeframe Bias Table with live updates
- Risk Management System (R-multiple TPs, freeze-on-touch)
- Opening Range Breakout tracker with session management
- Composite Stop Loss calculator using 6+ S/R layers
- Performance optimization system (caching, conditional calcs)
- VIX Fear Index integration
- Previous Day High/Low auto-detection
- Candlestick pattern recognition with interactive tooltips
- Smart label and visual management
- All UI/UX design and table architecture
### DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
**AI Assistance:** This indicator was developed over 2+ months with AI assistance (ChatGPT/Claude) used for:
- Writing Pine Script code based on design specifications
- Optimizing performance and fixing bugs
- Ensuring Pine Script v6 compliance
- Generating documentation
**Author's Role:** All trading concepts, system design, feature selection, integration logic, and strategic decisions are original work by the author. The AI was a coding tool, not the system designer.
**Transparency:** We believe in full disclosure - this project demonstrates how AI can be used as a powerful development tool while maintaining creative and strategic ownership.
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1. WHY THIS INDICATOR IS DIFFERENT
Most traders use multiple separate indicators on their charts, leading to cluttered screens, conflicting signals, and analysis paralysis. The Suite solves this by integrating proven technical tools into a single, cohesive system.
Key Advantages:
All-in-One Design: Instead of loading 5-10 separate indicators, you get everything in one optimized script. This reduces chart clutter and improves TradingView performance.
Multi-Timeframe Bias Table: Unlike standard indicators that only show the current timeframe, the Bias Table aggregates trend signals across multiple timeframes simultaneously. See at a glance whether 1m, 5m, 15m, 1h are aligned bullish or bearish - no more switching between charts.
Smart Confirmations: The indicator doesn't just give signals - it shows you WHY. Every entry has multiple layers of confirmation (MA cross, MACD momentum, ADX strength, RSI pullback, volume, etc.) that you can toggle on/off.
Dynamic Stop Loss System: Instead of static ATR stops, the SL is calculated from multiple support/resistance layers: UT trailing line, Supertrend, VWAP, swing structure, and MA levels. This creates more intelligent, price-action-aware stops.
R-Multiple Take Profits: Built-in TP system calculates targets based on your initial risk (1R, 1.5R, 2R, 3R). Lines freeze when touched with visual checkmarks, giving you a clean audit trail of partial exits.
Educational Tooltips Everywhere: Every single input has detailed tooltips explaining what it does, typical values, and how it impacts trading. You're not guessing - you're learning as you configure.
Performance Optimized: Smart caching, conditional calculations, and modular design mean the indicator runs fast despite having 15+ features. Turn off what you don't use for even better performance.
No Repainting: All signals respect bar close. Alerts fire correctly. What you see in history is what you would have gotten in real-time.
What Makes It Unique:
Integrated UT Bot + Bias Table: No other indicator combines UT Bot's ATR trailing system with a live multi-timeframe dashboard. You get precision entries with macro trend context.
Candlestick Pattern Recognition with Interactive Tooltips: Patterns aren't just marked - hover over any emoji for a full explanation of what the pattern means and how to trade it.
Opening Range Breakout Tracker: Built-in ORB system for intraday traders with customizable session times and real-time status updates in the Bias Table.
Previous Day High/Low Auto-Detection: Automatically plots PDH/PDL on intraday charts with theme-aware colors. Updates daily without manual input.
Dynamic Row Labels in Bias Table: The table shows your actual settings (e.g., "EMA 10 > SMA 20") not generic labels. You know exactly what's being evaluated.
Modular Filter System: Instead of forcing a fixed methodology, the indicator lets you build your own strategy. Start with just UT Bot, add filters one at a time, test what works for your style.
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2. WHO WHOULD USE THIS
Designed For:
Intermediate to Advanced Traders: You understand basic technical analysis (MAs, RSI, MACD) and want to combine multiple confirmations efficiently. This isn't a "one-click profit" system - it's a professional toolkit.
Multi-Timeframe Traders: If you trade one asset but check multiple timeframes for confirmation (e.g., enter on 5m after checking 15m and 1h alignment), the Bias Table will save you hours every week.
Trend Followers: The indicator excels at identifying and following trends using UT Bot, Supertrend, and MA systems. If you trade breakouts and pullbacks in trending markets, this is built for you.
Intraday and Swing Traders: Works equally well on 5m-1h charts (day trading) and 4h-D charts (swing trading). Scalpers can use it too with appropriate settings adjustments.
Discretionary Traders: This isn't a black-box system. You see all the components, understand the logic, and make final decisions. Perfect for traders who want tools, not automation.
Works Across All Markets:
Stocks (US, international)
Cryptocurrency (24/7 markets supported)
Forex pairs
Indices (SPY, QQQ, etc.)
Commodities
NOT Ideal For :
Complete Beginners: If you don't know what a moving average or RSI is, start with basics first. This indicator assumes foundational knowledge.
Algo Traders Seeking Black Box: This is discretionary. Signals require context and confirmation. Not suitable for blind automated execution.
Mean-Reversion Only Traders: The indicator is trend-following at its core. While VWAP bands support mean-reversion, the primary methodology is trend continuation.
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3. CORE COMPONENTS OVERVIEW
The indicator combines these proven systems:
Trend Analysis:
Moving Averages: Four customizable MAs (Fast, Medium, Medium-Long, Long) with six types to choose from (EMA, SMA, WMA, VWMA, RMA, HMA). Mix and match for your style.
Supertrend: ATR-based trend indicator with unique gradient fill showing trend strength. One-sided ribbon visualization makes it easier to see momentum building or fading.
ZLSMA : Zero-lag linear-regression smoothed moving average. Reduces lag compared to traditional MAs while maintaining smooth curves.
Momentum & Filters:
MACD: Standard MACD with separation filter to avoid weak crossovers.
RSI: Pullback zone detection - only enter longs when RSI is in your defined "buy zone" and shorts in "sell zone".
ADX/DMI: Trend strength measurement with directional filter. Ensures you only trade when there's actual momentum.
Volume Filter: Relative volume confirmation - require above-average volume for entries.
Donchian Breakout: Optional channel breakout requirement.
Signal Systems:
UT Bot: The primary signal generator. ATR trailing stop that adapts to volatility and gives clear entry/exit points.
Base Signals: MA cross system with all the above filters applied. More conservative than UT Bot alone.
Market Bias Table: Multi-timeframe dashboard showing trend alignment across 7 timeframes plus macro bias (3-day, weekly, monthly, quarterly, VIX).
Candlestick Patterns: Six major reversal patterns auto-detected with interactive tooltips.
ORB Tracker: Opening range high/low with breakout status (intraday only).
PDH/PDL: Previous day levels plotted automatically on intraday charts.
VWAP + Bands : Session-anchored VWAP with up to three standard deviation band pairs.
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4. THE UT BOT TRADING SYSTEM
The UT Bot is the heart of the indicator's signal generation. It's an advanced ATR trailing stop that adapts to market volatility.
Why UT Bot is Superior to Fixed Stops:
Traditional ATR stops use a fixed multiplier (e.g., "stop = entry - 2×ATR"). UT Bot is smarter:
It TRAILS the stop as price moves in your favor
It WIDENS during high volatility to avoid premature stops
It TIGHTENS during consolidation to lock in profits
It FLIPS when price breaks the trailing line, signaling reversals
Visual Elements You'll See:
Orange Trailing Line: The actual UT stop level that adapts bar-by-bar
Buy/Sell Labels: Aqua triangle (long) or orange triangle (short) when the line flips
ENTRY Line: Horizontal line at your entry price (optional, can be turned off)
Suggested Stop Loss: A composite SL calculated from multiple support/resistance layers:
- UT trailing line
- Supertrend level
- VWAP
- Swing structure (recent lows/highs)
- Long-term MA (200)
- ATR-based floor
Take Profit Lines: TP1, TP1.5, TP2, TP3 based on R-multiples. When price touches a TP, it's marked with a checkmark and the line freezes for audit trail purposes.
Status Messages: "SL Touched ❌" or "SL Frozen" when the trade leg completes.
How UT Bot Differs from Other ATR Systems:
Multiple Filters Available: You can require 2-bar confirmation, minimum % price change, swing structure alignment, or ZLSMA directional filter. Most UT implementations have none of these.
Smart SL Calculation: Instead of just using the UT line as your stop, the indicator suggests a better SL based on actual support/resistance. This prevents getting stopped out by wicks while keeping risk controlled.
Visual Audit Trail: All SL/TP lines freeze when touched with clear markers. You can review your trades weeks later and see exactly where entries, stops, and targets were.
Performance Options: "Draw UT visuals only on bar close" lets you reduce rendering load without affecting logic or alerts - critical for slower machines or 1m charts.
Trading Logic:
UT Bot flips direction (Buy or Sell signal appears)
Check Bias Table for multi-timeframe confirmation
Optional: Wait for Base signal or candlestick pattern
Enter at signal bar close or next bar open
Place stop at "Suggested Stop Loss" line
Scale out at TP levels (TP1, TP2, TP3)
Exit remaining position on opposite UT signal or stop hit
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5. UNDERSTANDING THE MARKET BIAS TABLE
This is the indicator's unique multi-timeframe intelligence layer. Instead of looking at one chart at a time, the table aggregates signals across seven timeframes plus macro trend bias.
Why Multi-Timeframe Analysis Matters:
Professional traders check higher and lower timeframes for context:
Is the 1h uptrend aligning with my 5m entry?
Are all short-term timeframes bullish or just one?
Is the daily trend supportive or fighting me?
Doing this manually means opening multiple charts, checking each indicator, and making mental notes. The Bias Table does it automatically in one glance.
Table Structure:
Header Row:
On intraday charts: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h (toggle which ones you want)
On daily+ charts: D, W, M (automatic)
Green dot next to title = live updating
Headline Rows - Macro Bias:
These show broad market direction over longer periods:
3 Day Bias: Trend over last 3 trading sessions (uses 1h data)
Weekly Bias: Trend over last 5 trading sessions (uses 4h data)
Monthly Bias: Trend over last 30 daily bars
Quarterly Bias: Trend over last 13 weekly bars
VIX Fear Index: Market regime based on VIX level - bullish when low, bearish when high
Opening Range Breakout: Status of price vs. session open range (intraday only)
These rows show text: "BULLISH", "BEARISH", or "NEUTRAL"
Indicator Rows - Technical Signals:
These evaluate your configured indicators across all active timeframes:
Fast MA > Medium MA (shows your actual MA settings, e.g., "EMA 10 > SMA 20")
Price > Long MA (e.g., "Price > SMA 200")
Price > VWAP
MACD > Signal
Supertrend (up/down/neutral)
ZLSMA Rising
RSI In Zone
ADX ≥ Minimum
These rows show emojis: GREEB (bullish), RED (bearish), GRAY/YELLOW (neutral/NA)
AVG Column:
Shows percentage of active timeframes that are bullish for that row. This is the KEY metric:
AVG > 70% = strong multi-timeframe bullish alignment
AVG 40-60% = mixed/choppy, no clear trend
AVG < 30% = strong multi-timeframe bearish alignment
How to Use the Table:
For a long trade:
Check AVG column - want to see > 60% ideally
Check headline bias rows - want to see BULLISH, not BEARISH
Check VIX row - bullish market regime preferred
Check ORB row (intraday) - want ABOVE for longs
Scan indicator rows - more green = better confirmation
For a short trade:
Check AVG column - want to see < 40% ideally
Check headline bias rows - want to see BEARISH, not BULLISH
Check VIX row - bearish market regime preferred
Check ORB row (intraday) - want BELOW for shorts
Scan indicator rows - more red = better confirmation
When AVG is 40-60%:
Market is choppy, mixed signals. Either stay out or reduce position size significantly. These are low-probability environments.
Unique Features:
Dynamic Labels: Row names show your actual settings (e.g., "EMA 10 > SMA 20" not generic "Fast > Slow"). You know exactly what's being evaluated.
Customizable Rows: Turn off rows you don't care about. Only show what matters to your strategy.
Customizable Timeframes: On intraday charts, disable 1m or 4h if you don't trade them. Reduces calculation load by 20-40%.
Automatic HTF Handling: On Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts, the table automatically switches to D/W/M columns. No configuration needed.
Performance Smart: "Hide BIAS table on 1D or above" option completely skips all table calculations on higher timeframes if you only trade intraday.
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6. CANDLESTICK PATTERN RECOGNITION
The indicator automatically detects six major reversal patterns and marks them with emojis at the relevant bars.
Why These Six Patterns:
These are the most statistically significant reversal patterns according to trading literature:
High win rate when appearing at support/resistance
Clear visual structure (not subjective)
Work across all timeframes and assets
Studied extensively by institutions
The Patterns:
Bullish Patterns (appear at bottoms):
Bullish Engulfing: Green candle completely engulfs prior red candle's body. Strong reversal signal.
Hammer: Small body with long lower wick (at least 2× body size). Shows rejection of lower prices by buyers.
Morning Star: Three-candle pattern (large red → small indecision → large green). Very strong bottom reversal.
Bearish Patterns (appear at tops):
Bearish Engulfing: Red candle completely engulfs prior green candle's body. Strong reversal signal.
Shooting Star: Small body with long upper wick (at least 2× body size). Shows rejection of higher prices by sellers.
Evening Star: Three-candle pattern (large green → small indecision → large red). Very strong top reversal.
Interactive Tooltips:
Unlike most pattern indicators that just draw shapes, this one is educational:
Hover your mouse over any pattern emoji
A tooltip appears explaining: what the pattern is, what it means, when it's most reliable, and how to trade it
No need to memorize - learn as you trade
Noise Filter:
"Min candle body % to filter noise" setting prevents false signals:
Patterns require minimum body size relative to price
Filters out tiny candles that don't represent real buying/selling pressure
Adjust based on asset volatility (higher % for crypto, lower for low-volatility stocks)
How to Trade Patterns:
Patterns are NOT standalone entry signals. Use them as:
Confirmation: UT Bot gives signal + pattern appears = stronger entry
Reversal Warning: In a trade, opposite pattern appears = consider tightening stop or taking profit
Support/Resistance Validation: Pattern at key level (PDH, VWAP, MA 200) = level is being respected
Best combined with:
UT Bot or Base signal in same direction
Bias Table alignment (AVG > 60% or < 40%)
Appearance at obvious support/resistance
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7. VISUAL TOOLS AND FEATURES
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):
Session-anchored VWAP with standard deviation bands. Shows institutional "fair value" for the trading session.
Anchor Options: Session, Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year. Choose based on your trading timeframe.
Bands: Up to three pairs (X1, X2, X3) showing statistical deviation. Price at outer bands often reverses.
Auto-Hide on HTF: VWAP hides on Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts automatically unless you enable anchored mode.
Use VWAP as:
Directional bias (above = bullish, below = bearish)
Mean reversion levels (outer bands)
Support/resistance (the VWAP line itself)
Previous Day High/Low:
Automatically plots yesterday's high and low on intraday charts:
Updates at start of each new trading day
Theme-aware colors (dark text for light charts, light text for dark charts)
Hidden automatically on Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts
These levels are critical for intraday traders - institutions watch them closely as support/resistance.
Opening Range Breakout (ORB):
Tracks the high/low of the first 5, 15, 30, or 60 minutes of the trading session:
Customizable session times (preset for NYSE, LSE, TSE, or custom)
Shows current breakout status in Bias Table row (ABOVE, BELOW, INSIDE, BUILDING)
Intraday only - auto-disabled on Daily+ charts
ORB is a classic day trading strategy - breakout above opening range often leads to continuation.
Extra Labels:
Change from Open %: Shows how far price has moved from session open (intraday) or daily open (HTF). Green if positive, red if negative.
ADX Badge: Small label at bottom of last bar showing current ADX value. Green when above your minimum threshold, red when below.
RSI Badge: Small label at top of last bar showing current RSI value with zone status (buy zone, sell zone, or neutral).
These labels provide quick at-a-glance confirmation without needing separate indicator windows.
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8. HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
Step 1: Add to Chart
Load the indicator on your chosen asset and timeframe
First time: Everything is enabled by default - the chart will look busy
Don't panic - you'll turn off what you don't need
Step 2: Start Simple
Turn OFF everything except:
UT Bot labels (keep these ON)
Bias Table (keep this ON)
Moving Averages (Fast and Medium only)
Suggested Stop Loss and Take Profits
Hide everything else initially. Get comfortable with the basic UT Bot + Bias Table workflow first.
Step 3: Learn the Core Workflow
UT Bot gives a Buy or Sell signal
Check Bias Table AVG column - do you have multi-timeframe alignment?
If yes, enter the trade
Place stop at Suggested Stop Loss line
Scale out at TP levels
Exit on opposite UT signal
Trade this simple system for a week. Get a feel for signal frequency and win rate with your settings.
Step 4: Add Filters Gradually
If you're getting too many losing signals (whipsaws in choppy markets), add filters one at a time:
Try: "Require 2-Bar Trend Confirmation" - wait for 2 bars to confirm direction
Try: ADX filter with minimum threshold - only trade when trend strength is sufficient
Try: RSI pullback filter - only enter on pullbacks, not chasing
Try: Volume filter - require above-average volume
Add one filter, test for a week, evaluate. Repeat.
Step 5: Enable Advanced Features (Optional)
Once you're profitable with the core system, add:
Supertrend for additional trend confirmation
Candlestick patterns for reversal warnings
VWAP for institutional anchor reference
ORB for intraday breakout context
ZLSMA for low-lag trend following
Step 6: Optimize Settings
Every setting has a detailed tooltip explaining what it does and typical values. Hover over any input to read:
What the parameter controls
How it impacts trading
Suggested ranges for scalping, day trading, and swing trading
Start with defaults, then adjust based on your results and style.
Step 7: Set Up Alerts
Right-click chart → Add Alert → Condition: "Luxy Momentum v6" → Choose:
"UT Bot — Buy" for long entries
"UT Bot — Sell" for short entries
"Base Long/Short" for filtered MA cross signals
Optionally enable "Send real-time alert() on UT flip" in settings for immediate notifications.
Common Workflow Variations:
Conservative Trader:
UT signal + Base signal + Candlestick pattern + Bias AVG > 70%
Enter only at major support/resistance
Wider UT sensitivity, multiple filters
Aggressive Trader:
UT signal + Bias AVG > 60%
Enter immediately, no waiting
Tighter UT sensitivity, minimal filters
Swing Trader:
Focus on Daily/Weekly Bias alignment
Ignore intraday noise
Use ORB and PDH/PDL less (or not at all)
Wider stops, patient approach
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9. PERFORMANCE AND OPTIMIZATION
The indicator is optimized for speed, but with 15+ features running simultaneously, chart load time can add up. Here's how to keep it fast:
Biggest Performance Gains:
Disable Unused Timeframes: In "Time Frames" settings, turn OFF any timeframe you don't actively trade. Each disabled TF saves 10-15% calculation time. If you only day trade 5m, 15m, 1h, disable 1m, 2h, 4h.
Hide Bias Table on Daily+: If you only trade intraday, enable "Hide BIAS table on 1D or above". This skips ALL table calculations on higher timeframes.
Draw UT Visuals Only on Bar Close: Reduces intrabar rendering of SL/TP/Entry lines. Has ZERO impact on logic or alerts - purely visual optimization.
Additional Optimizations:
Turn off VWAP bands if you don't use them
Disable candlestick patterns if you don't trade them
Turn off Supertrend fill if you find it distracting (keep the line)
Reduce "Limit to 10 bars" for SL/TP lines to minimize line objects
Performance Features Built-In:
Smart Caching: Higher timeframe data (3-day bias, weekly bias, etc.) updates once per day, not every bar
Conditional Calculations: Volume filter only calculates when enabled. Swing filter only runs when enabled. Nothing computes if turned off.
Modular Design: Every component is independent. Turn off what you don't need without breaking other features.
Typical Load Times:
5m chart, all features ON, 7 timeframes: ~2-3 seconds
5m chart, core features only, 3 timeframes: ~1 second
1m chart, all features: ~4-5 seconds (many bars to calculate)
If loading takes longer, you likely have too many indicators on the chart total (not just this one).
---
10. FAQ
Q: How is this different from standard UT Bot indicators?
A: Standard UT Bot (originally by @QuantNomad) is just the ATR trailing line and flip signals. This implementation adds:
- Volume weighting and momentum adjustment to the trailing calculation
- Multiple confirmation filters (swing, %, 2-bar, ZLSMA)
- Smart composite stop loss system from multiple S/R layers
- R-multiple take profit system with freeze-on-touch
- Integration with multi-timeframe Bias Table
- Visual audit trail with checkmarks
Q: Can I use this for automated trading?
A: The indicator is designed for discretionary trading. While it has clear signals and alerts, it's not a mechanical system. Context and judgment are required.
Q: Does it repaint?
A: No. All signals respect bar close. UT Bot logic runs intrabar but signals only trigger on confirmed bars. Alerts fire correctly with no lookahead.
Q: Do I need to use all the features?
A: Absolutely not. The indicator is modular. Many profitable traders use just UT Bot + Bias Table + Moving Averages. Start simple, add complexity only if needed.
Q: How do I know which settings to use?
A: Every single input has a detailed tooltip. Hover over any setting to see:
What it does
How it affects trading
Typical values for scalping, day trading, swing trading
Start with defaults, adjust gradually based on results.
Q: Can I use this on crypto 24/7 markets?
A: Yes. ORB will not work (no defined session), but everything else functions normally. Use "Day" anchor for VWAP instead of "Session".
Q: The Bias Table is blank or not showing.
A: Check:
"Show Table" is ON
Table position isn't overlapping another indicator's table (change position)
At least one row is enabled
"Hide BIAS table on 1D or above" is OFF (if on Daily+ chart)
Q: Why are candlestick patterns not appearing?
A: Patterns are relatively rare by design - they only appear at genuine reversal points. Check:
Pattern toggles are ON
"Min candle body %" isn't too high (try 0.05-0.10)
You're looking at a chart with actual reversals (not strong trending market)
Q: UT Bot is too sensitive/not sensitive enough.
A: Adjust "Sensitivity (Key×ATR)". Lower number = tighter stop, more signals. Higher number = wider stop, fewer signals. Read the tooltip for guidance.
Q: Can I get alerts for the Bias Table?
A: The Bias Table is a dashboard for visual analysis, not a signal generator. Set alerts on UT Bot or Base signals, then manually check Bias Table for confirmation.
Q: Does this work on stocks with low volume?
A: Yes, but turn OFF the volume filter. Low volume stocks will never meet relative volume requirements.
Q: How often should I check the Bias Table?
A: Before every entry. It takes 2 seconds to glance at the AVG column and headline rows. This one check can save you from fighting the trend.
Q: What if UT signal and Base signal disagree?
A: UT Bot is more aggressive (ATR trailing). Base signals are more conservative (MA cross + filters). If they disagree, either:
Wait for both to align (safest)
Take the UT signal but with smaller size (aggressive)
Skip the trade (conservative)
There's no "right" answer - depends on your risk tolerance.
---
FINAL NOTES
The indicator gives you an edge. How you use that edge determines results.
For questions, feedback, or support, comment on the indicator page or message the author.
Happy Trading!
Keltner Channel Enhanced [DCAUT]█ Keltner Channel Enhanced
📊 ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
The Keltner Channel Enhanced represents an important advancement over standard Keltner Channel implementations by introducing dual flexibility in moving average selection for both the middle band and ATR calculation. While traditional Keltner Channels typically use EMA for the middle band and RMA (Wilder's smoothing) for ATR, this enhanced version provides access to 25+ moving average algorithms for both components, enabling traders to fine-tune the indicator's behavior to match specific market characteristics and trading approaches.
Key Advancements:
Dual MA Algorithm Flexibility: Independent selection of moving average types for middle band (25+ options) and ATR smoothing (25+ options), allowing optimization of both trend identification and volatility measurement separately
Enhanced Trend Sensitivity: Ability to use faster algorithms (HMA, T3) for middle band while maintaining stable volatility measurement with traditional ATR smoothing, or vice versa for different trading strategies
Adaptive Volatility Measurement: Choice of ATR smoothing algorithm affects channel responsiveness to volatility changes, from highly reactive (SMA, EMA) to smoothly adaptive (RMA, TEMA)
Comprehensive Alert System: Five distinct alert conditions covering breakouts, trend changes, and volatility expansion, enabling automated monitoring without constant chart observation
Multi-Timeframe Compatibility: Works effectively across all timeframes from intraday scalping to long-term position trading, with independent optimization of trend and volatility components
This implementation addresses key limitations of standard Keltner Channels: fixed EMA/RMA combination may not suit all market conditions or trading styles. By decoupling the trend component from volatility measurement and allowing independent algorithm selection, traders can create highly customized configurations for specific instruments and market phases.
📐 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION
Keltner Channel Enhanced uses a three-component calculation system that combines a flexible moving average middle band with ATR-based (Average True Range) upper and lower channels, creating volatility-adjusted trend-following bands.
Core Calculation Process:
1. Middle Band (Basis) Calculation:
The basis line is calculated using the selected moving average algorithm applied to the price source over the specified period:
basis = ma(source, length, maType)
Supported algorithms include EMA (standard choice, trend-biased), SMA (balanced and symmetric), HMA (reduced lag), WMA, VWMA, TEMA, T3, KAMA, and 17+ others.
2. Average True Range (ATR) Calculation:
ATR measures market volatility by calculating the average of true ranges over the specified period:
trueRange = max(high - low, abs(high - close ), abs(low - close ))
atrValue = ma(trueRange, atrLength, atrMaType)
ATR smoothing algorithm significantly affects channel behavior, with options including RMA (standard, very smooth), SMA (moderate smoothness), EMA (fast adaptation), TEMA (smooth yet responsive), and others.
3. Channel Calculation:
Upper and lower channels are positioned at specified multiples of ATR from the basis:
upperChannel = basis + (multiplier × atrValue)
lowerChannel = basis - (multiplier × atrValue)
Standard multiplier is 2.0, providing channels that dynamically adjust width based on market volatility.
Keltner Channel vs. Bollinger Bands - Key Differences:
While both indicators create volatility-based channels, they use fundamentally different volatility measures:
Keltner Channel (ATR-based):
Uses Average True Range to measure actual price movement volatility
Incorporates gaps and limit moves through true range calculation
More stable in trending markets, less prone to extreme compression
Better reflects intraday volatility and trading range
Typically fewer band touches, making touches more significant
More suitable for trend-following strategies
Bollinger Bands (Standard Deviation-based):
Uses statistical standard deviation to measure price dispersion
Based on closing prices only, doesn't account for intraday range
Can compress significantly during consolidation (squeeze patterns)
More touches in ranging markets
Better suited for mean-reversion strategies
Provides statistical probability framework (95% within 2 standard deviations)
Algorithm Combination Effects:
The interaction between middle band MA type and ATR MA type creates different indicator characteristics:
Trend-Focused Configuration (Fast MA + Slow ATR): Middle band uses HMA/EMA/T3, ATR uses RMA/TEMA, quick trend changes with stable channel width, suitable for trend-following
Volatility-Focused Configuration (Slow MA + Fast ATR): Middle band uses SMA/WMA, ATR uses EMA/SMA, stable trend with dynamic channel width, suitable for volatility trading
Balanced Configuration (Standard EMA/RMA): Classic Keltner Channel behavior, time-tested combination, suitable for general-purpose trend following
Adaptive Configuration (KAMA + KAMA): Self-adjusting indicator responding to efficiency ratio, suitable for markets with varying trend strength and volatility regimes
📊 COMPREHENSIVE SIGNAL ANALYSIS
Keltner Channel Enhanced provides multiple signal categories optimized for trend-following and breakout strategies.
Channel Position Signals:
Upper Channel Interaction:
Price Touching Upper Channel: Strong bullish momentum, price moving more than typical volatility range suggests, potential continuation signal in established uptrends
Price Breaking Above Upper Channel: Exceptional strength, price exceeding normal volatility expectations, consider adding to long positions or tightening trailing stops
Price Riding Upper Channel: Sustained strong uptrend, characteristic of powerful bull moves, stay with trend and avoid premature profit-taking
Price Rejection at Upper Channel: Momentum exhaustion signal, consider profit-taking on longs or waiting for pullback to middle band for reentry
Lower Channel Interaction:
Price Touching Lower Channel: Strong bearish momentum, price moving more than typical volatility range suggests, potential continuation signal in established downtrends
Price Breaking Below Lower Channel: Exceptional weakness, price exceeding normal volatility expectations, consider adding to short positions or protecting against further downside
Price Riding Lower Channel: Sustained strong downtrend, characteristic of powerful bear moves, stay with trend and avoid premature covering
Price Rejection at Lower Channel: Momentum exhaustion signal, consider covering shorts or waiting for bounce to middle band for reentry
Middle Band (Basis) Signals:
Trend Direction Confirmation:
Price Above Basis: Bullish trend bias, middle band acts as dynamic support in uptrends, consider long positions or holding existing longs
Price Below Basis: Bearish trend bias, middle band acts as dynamic resistance in downtrends, consider short positions or avoiding longs
Price Crossing Above Basis: Potential trend change from bearish to bullish, early signal to establish long positions
Price Crossing Below Basis: Potential trend change from bullish to bearish, early signal to establish short positions or exit longs
Pullback Trading Strategy:
Uptrend Pullback: Price pulls back from upper channel to middle band, finds support, and resumes upward, ideal long entry point
Downtrend Bounce: Price bounces from lower channel to middle band, meets resistance, and resumes downward, ideal short entry point
Basis Test: Strong trends often show price respecting the middle band as support/resistance on pullbacks
Failed Test: Price breaking through middle band against trend direction signals potential reversal
Volatility-Based Signals:
Narrow Channels (Low Volatility):
Consolidation Phase: Channels contract during periods of reduced volatility and directionless price action
Breakout Preparation: Narrow channels often precede significant directional moves as volatility cycles
Trading Approach: Reduce position sizes, wait for breakout confirmation, avoid range-bound strategies within channels
Breakout Direction: Monitor for price breaking decisively outside channel range with expanding width
Wide Channels (High Volatility):
Trending Phase: Channels expand during strong directional moves and increased volatility
Momentum Confirmation: Wide channels confirm genuine trend with substantial volatility backing
Trading Approach: Trend-following strategies excel, wider stops necessary, mean-reversion strategies risky
Exhaustion Signs: Extreme channel width (historical highs) may signal approaching consolidation or reversal
Advanced Pattern Recognition:
Channel Walking Pattern:
Upper Channel Walk: Price consistently touches or exceeds upper channel while staying above basis, very strong uptrend signal, hold longs aggressively
Lower Channel Walk: Price consistently touches or exceeds lower channel while staying below basis, very strong downtrend signal, hold shorts aggressively
Basis Support/Resistance: During channel walks, price typically uses middle band as support/resistance on minor pullbacks
Pattern Break: Price crossing basis during channel walk signals potential trend exhaustion
Squeeze and Release Pattern:
Squeeze Phase: Channels narrow significantly, price consolidates near middle band, volatility contracts
Direction Clues: Watch for price positioning relative to basis during squeeze (above = bullish bias, below = bearish bias)
Release Trigger: Price breaking outside narrow channel range with expanding width confirms breakout
Follow-Through: Measure squeeze height and project from breakout point for initial profit targets
Channel Expansion Pattern:
Breakout Confirmation: Rapid channel widening confirms volatility increase and genuine trend establishment
Entry Timing: Enter positions early in expansion phase before trend becomes overextended
Risk Management: Use channel width to size stops appropriately, wider channels require wider stops
Basis Bounce Pattern:
Clean Bounce: Price touches middle band and immediately reverses, confirms trend strength and entry opportunity
Multiple Bounces: Repeated basis bounces indicate strong, sustainable trend
Bounce Failure: Price penetrating basis signals weakening trend and potential reversal
Divergence Analysis:
Price/Channel Divergence: Price makes new high/low while staying within channel (not reaching outer band), suggests momentum weakening
Width/Price Divergence: Price breaks to new extremes but channel width contracts, suggests move lacks conviction
Reversal Signal: Divergences often precede trend reversals or significant consolidation periods
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Keltner Channels work particularly well in multi-timeframe trend-following approaches:
Three-Timeframe Alignment:
Higher Timeframe (Weekly/Daily): Identify major trend direction, note price position relative to basis and channels
Intermediate Timeframe (Daily/4H): Identify pullback opportunities within higher timeframe trend
Lower Timeframe (4H/1H): Time precise entries when price touches middle band or lower channel (in uptrends) with rejection
Optimal Entry Conditions:
Best Long Entries: Higher timeframe in uptrend (price above basis), intermediate timeframe pulls back to basis, lower timeframe shows rejection at middle band or lower channel
Best Short Entries: Higher timeframe in downtrend (price below basis), intermediate timeframe bounces to basis, lower timeframe shows rejection at middle band or upper channel
Risk Management: Use higher timeframe channel width to set position sizing, stops below/above higher timeframe channels
🎯 STRATEGIC APPLICATIONS
Keltner Channel Enhanced excels in trend-following and breakout strategies across different market conditions.
Trend Following Strategy:
Setup Requirements:
Identify established trend with price consistently on one side of basis line
Wait for pullback to middle band (basis) or brief penetration through it
Confirm trend resumption with price rejection at basis and move back toward outer channel
Enter in trend direction with stop beyond basis line
Entry Rules:
Uptrend Entry:
Price pulls back from upper channel to middle band, shows support at basis (bullish candlestick, momentum divergence)
Enter long on rejection/bounce from basis with stop 1-2 ATR below basis
Aggressive: Enter on first touch; Conservative: Wait for confirmation candle
Downtrend Entry:
Price bounces from lower channel to middle band, shows resistance at basis (bearish candlestick, momentum divergence)
Enter short on rejection/reversal from basis with stop 1-2 ATR above basis
Aggressive: Enter on first touch; Conservative: Wait for confirmation candle
Trend Management:
Trailing Stop: Use basis line as dynamic trailing stop, exit if price closes beyond basis against position
Profit Taking: Take partial profits at opposite channel, move stops to basis
Position Additions: Add to winners on subsequent basis bounces if trend intact
Breakout Strategy:
Setup Requirements:
Identify consolidation period with contracting channel width
Monitor price action near middle band with reduced volatility
Wait for decisive breakout beyond channel range with expanding width
Enter in breakout direction after confirmation
Breakout Confirmation:
Price breaks clearly outside channel (upper for longs, lower for shorts), channel width begins expanding from contracted state
Volume increases significantly on breakout (if using volume analysis)
Price sustains outside channel for multiple bars without immediate reversal
Entry Approaches:
Aggressive: Enter on initial break with stop at opposite channel or basis, use smaller position size
Conservative: Wait for pullback to broken channel level, enter on rejection and resumption, tighter stop
Volatility-Based Position Sizing:
Adjust position sizing based on channel width (ATR-based volatility):
Wide Channels (High ATR): Reduce position size as stops must be wider, calculate position size using ATR-based risk calculation: Risk / (Stop Distance in ATR × ATR Value)
Narrow Channels (Low ATR): Increase position size as stops can be tighter, be cautious of impending volatility expansion
ATR-Based Risk Management: Use ATR-based risk calculations, position size = 0.01 × Capital / (2 × ATR), use multiples of ATR (1-2 ATR) for adaptive stops
Algorithm Selection Guidelines:
Different market conditions benefit from different algorithm combinations:
Strong Trending Markets: Middle band use EMA or HMA, ATR use RMA, capture trends quickly while maintaining stable channel width
Choppy/Ranging Markets: Middle band use SMA or WMA, ATR use SMA or WMA, avoid false trend signals while identifying genuine reversals
Volatile Markets: Middle band and ATR both use KAMA or FRAMA, self-adjusting to changing market conditions reduces manual optimization
Breakout Trading: Middle band use SMA, ATR use EMA or SMA, stable trend with dynamic channels highlights volatility expansion early
Scalping/Day Trading: Middle band use HMA or T3, ATR use EMA or TEMA, both components respond quickly
Position Trading: Middle band use EMA/TEMA/T3, ATR use RMA or TEMA, filter out noise for long-term trend-following
📋 DETAILED PARAMETER CONFIGURATION
Understanding and optimizing parameters is essential for adapting Keltner Channel Enhanced to specific trading approaches.
Source Parameter:
Close (Most Common): Uses closing price, reflects daily settlement, best for end-of-day analysis and position trading, standard choice
HL2 (Median Price): Smooths out closing bias, better represents full daily range in volatile markets, good for swing trading
HLC3 (Typical Price): Gives more weight to close while including full range, popular for intraday applications, slightly more responsive than HL2
OHLC4 (Average Price): Most comprehensive price representation, smoothest option, good for gap-prone markets or highly volatile instruments
Length Parameter:
Controls the lookback period for middle band (basis) calculation:
Short Periods (10-15): Very responsive to price changes, suitable for day trading and scalping, higher false signal rate
Standard Period (20 - Default): Represents approximately one month of trading, good balance between responsiveness and stability, suitable for swing and position trading
Medium Periods (30-50): Smoother trend identification, fewer false signals, better for position trading and longer holding periods
Long Periods (50+): Very smooth, identifies major trends only, minimal false signals but significant lag, suitable for long-term investment
Optimization by Timeframe: 1-15 minute charts use 10-20 period, 30-60 minute charts use 20-30 period, 4-hour to daily charts use 20-40 period, weekly charts use 20-30 weeks.
ATR Length Parameter:
Controls the lookback period for Average True Range calculation, affecting channel width:
Short ATR Periods (5-10): Very responsive to recent volatility changes, standard is 10 (Keltner's original specification), may be too reactive in whipsaw conditions
Standard ATR Period (10 - Default): Chester Keltner's original specification, good balance between responsiveness and stability, most widely used
Medium ATR Periods (14-20): Smoother channel width, ATR 14 aligns with Wilder's original ATR specification, good for position trading
Long ATR Periods (20+): Very smooth channel width, suitable for long-term trend-following
Length vs. ATR Length Relationship: Equal values (20/20) provide balanced responsiveness, longer ATR (20/14) gives more stable channel width, shorter ATR (20/10) is standard configuration, much shorter ATR (20/5) creates very dynamic channels.
Multiplier Parameter:
Controls channel width by setting ATR multiples:
Lower Values (1.0-1.5): Tighter channels with frequent price touches, more trading signals, higher false signal rate, better for range-bound and mean-reversion strategies
Standard Value (2.0 - Default): Chester Keltner's recommended setting, good balance between signal frequency and reliability, suitable for both trending and ranging strategies
Higher Values (2.5-3.0): Wider channels with less frequent touches, fewer but potentially higher-quality signals, better for strong trending markets
Market-Specific Optimization: High volatility markets (crypto, small-caps) use 2.5-3.0 multiplier, medium volatility markets (major forex, large-caps) use 2.0 multiplier, low volatility markets (bonds, utilities) use 1.5-2.0 multiplier.
MA Type Parameter (Middle Band):
Critical selection that determines trend identification characteristics:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average - Default): Standard Keltner Channel choice, Chester Keltner's original specification, emphasizes recent prices, faster response to trend changes, suitable for all timeframes
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Equal weighting of all data points, no directional bias, slower than EMA, better for ranging markets and mean-reversion
HMA (Hull Moving Average): Minimal lag with smooth output, excellent for fast trend identification, best for day trading and scalping
TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average): Advanced smoothing with reduced lag, responsive to trends while filtering noise, suitable for volatile markets
T3 (Tillson T3): Very smooth with minimal lag, excellent for established trend identification, suitable for position trading
KAMA (Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average): Automatically adjusts speed based on market efficiency, slow in ranging markets, fast in trends, suitable for markets with varying conditions
ATR MA Type Parameter:
Determines how Average True Range is smoothed, affecting channel width stability:
RMA (Wilder's Smoothing - Default): J. Welles Wilder's original ATR smoothing method, very smooth, slow to adapt to volatility changes, provides stable channel width
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Equal weighting, moderate smoothness, faster response to volatility changes than RMA, more dynamic channel width
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Emphasizes recent volatility, quick adaptation to new volatility regimes, very responsive channel width changes
TEMA (Triple Exponential Moving Average): Smooth yet responsive, good balance for varying volatility, suitable for most trading styles
Parameter Combination Strategies:
Conservative Trend-Following: Length 30/ATR Length 20/Multiplier 2.5, MA Type EMA or TEMA/ATR MA Type RMA, smooth trend with stable wide channels, suitable for position trading
Standard Balanced Approach: Length 20/ATR Length 10/Multiplier 2.0, MA Type EMA/ATR MA Type RMA, classic Keltner Channel configuration, suitable for general purpose swing trading
Aggressive Day Trading: Length 10-15/ATR Length 5-7/Multiplier 1.5-2.0, MA Type HMA or EMA/ATR MA Type EMA or SMA, fast trend with dynamic channels, suitable for scalping and day trading
Breakout Specialist: Length 20-30/ATR Length 5-10/Multiplier 2.0, MA Type SMA or WMA/ATR MA Type EMA or SMA, stable trend with responsive channel width
Adaptive All-Conditions: Length 20/ATR Length 10/Multiplier 2.0, MA Type KAMA or FRAMA/ATR MA Type KAMA or TEMA, self-adjusting to market conditions
Offset Parameter:
Controls horizontal positioning of channels on chart. Positive values shift channels to the right (future) for visual projection, negative values shift left (past) for historical analysis, zero (default) aligns with current price bars for real-time signal analysis. Offset affects only visual display, not alert conditions or actual calculations.
📈 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Keltner Channel Enhanced provides improvements over standard implementations while maintaining proven effectiveness.
Response Characteristics:
Standard EMA/RMA Configuration: Moderate trend lag (approximately 0.4 × length periods), smooth and stable channel width from RMA smoothing, good balance for most market conditions
Fast HMA/EMA Configuration: Approximately 60% reduction in trend lag compared to EMA, responsive channel width from EMA ATR smoothing, suitable for quick trend changes and breakouts
Adaptive KAMA/KAMA Configuration: Variable lag based on market efficiency, automatic adjustment to trending vs. ranging conditions, self-optimizing behavior reduces manual intervention
Comparison with Traditional Keltner Channels:
Enhanced Version Advantages:
Dual Algorithm Flexibility: Independent MA selection for trend and volatility vs. fixed EMA/RMA, separate tuning of trend responsiveness and channel stability
Market Adaptation: Choose configurations optimized for specific instruments and conditions, customize for scalping, swing, or position trading preferences
Comprehensive Alerts: Enhanced alert system including channel expansion detection
Traditional Version Advantages:
Simplicity: Fewer parameters, easier to understand and implement
Standardization: Fixed EMA/RMA combination ensures consistency across users
Research Base: Decades of backtesting and research on standard configuration
When to Use Enhanced Version: Trading multiple instruments with different characteristics, switching between trending and ranging markets, employing different strategies, algorithm-based trading systems requiring customization, seeking optimization for specific trading style and timeframe.
When to Use Standard Version: Beginning traders learning Keltner Channel concepts, following published research or trading systems, preferring simplicity and standardization, wanting to avoid optimization and curve-fitting risks.
Performance Across Market Conditions:
Strong Trending Markets: EMA or HMA basis with RMA or TEMA ATR smoothing provides quicker trend identification, pullbacks to basis offer excellent entry opportunities
Choppy/Ranging Markets: SMA or WMA basis with RMA ATR smoothing and lower multipliers, channel bounce strategies work well, avoid false breakouts
Volatile Markets: KAMA or FRAMA with EMA or TEMA, adaptive algorithms excel by automatic adjustment, wider multipliers (2.5-3.0) accommodate large price swings
Low Volatility/Consolidation: Channels narrow significantly indicating consolidation, algorithm choice less impactful, focus on detecting channel width contraction for breakout preparation
Keltner Channel vs. Bollinger Bands - Usage Comparison:
Favor Keltner Channels When: Trend-following is primary strategy, trading volatile instruments with gaps, want ATR-based volatility measurement, prefer fewer higher-quality channel touches, seeking stable channel width during trends.
Favor Bollinger Bands When: Mean-reversion is primary strategy, trading instruments with limited gaps, want statistical framework based on standard deviation, need squeeze patterns for breakout identification, prefer more frequent trading opportunities.
Use Both Together: Bollinger Band squeeze + Keltner Channel breakout is powerful combination, price outside Bollinger Bands but inside Keltner Channels indicates moderate signal, price outside both indicates very strong signal, Bollinger Bands for entries and Keltner Channels for trend confirmation.
Limitations and Considerations:
General Limitations:
Lagging Indicator: All moving averages lag price, even with reduced-lag algorithms
Trend-Dependent: Works best in trending markets, less effective in choppy conditions
No Direction Prediction: Indicates volatility and deviation, not future direction, requires confirmation
Enhanced Version Specific Considerations:
Optimization Risk: More parameters increase risk of curve-fitting historical data
Complexity: Additional choices may overwhelm beginning traders
Backtesting Challenges: Different algorithms produce different historical results
Mitigation Strategies:
Use Confirmation: Combine with momentum indicators (RSI, MACD), volume, or price action
Test Parameter Robustness: Ensure parameters work across range of values, not just optimized ones
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Confirm signals across different timeframes
Proper Risk Management: Use appropriate position sizing and stops
Start Simple: Begin with standard EMA/RMA before exploring alternatives
Optimal Usage Recommendations:
For Maximum Effectiveness:
Start with standard EMA/RMA configuration to understand classic behavior
Experiment with alternatives on demo account or paper trading
Match algorithm combination to market condition and trading style
Use channel width analysis to identify market phases
Combine with complementary indicators for confirmation
Implement strict risk management using ATR-based position sizing
Focus on high-quality setups rather than trading every signal
Respect the trend: trade with basis direction for higher probability
Complementary Indicators:
RSI or Stochastic: Confirm momentum at channel extremes
MACD: Confirm trend direction and momentum shifts
Volume: Validate breakouts and trend strength
ADX: Measure trend strength, avoid Keltner signals in weak trends
Support/Resistance: Combine with traditional levels for high-probability setups
Bollinger Bands: Use together for enhanced breakout and volatility analysis
USAGE NOTES
This indicator is designed for technical analysis and educational purposes. Keltner Channel Enhanced has limitations and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. While the flexible moving average selection for both trend and volatility components provides valuable adaptability across different market conditions, algorithm performance varies with market conditions, and past characteristics do not guarantee future results.
Key considerations:
Always use multiple forms of analysis and confirmation before entering trades
Backtest any parameter combination thoroughly before live trading
Be aware that optimization can lead to curve-fitting if not done carefully
Start with standard EMA/RMA settings and adjust only when specific conditions warrant
Understand that no moving average algorithm can eliminate lag entirely
Consider market regime (trending, ranging, volatile) when selecting parameters
Use ATR-based position sizing and risk management on every trade
Keltner Channels work best in trending markets, less effective in choppy conditions
Respect the trend direction indicated by price position relative to basis line
The enhanced flexibility of dual algorithm selection provides powerful tools for adaptation but requires responsible use, thorough understanding of how different algorithms behave under various market conditions, and disciplined risk management.
Ribbon — multi-MA trend bandsRibbon paints five translucent bands between six moving averages to visualize trend structure and regime at a glance. You can choose the MA type (EMA/SMA/WMA), customize lengths, and switch the coloring logic between an anchor-based mode and strict alignment.
What it shows
Six MAs on the current timeframe (defaults: 5 / 34 / 55 / 89 / 144 / 233).
Five bands filled between consecutive MAs:
5–34, 34–55, 55–89, 89–144, 144–233.
Optional plotting of MA lines (hidden by default to keep the chart clean).
Coloring modes
1. By EMA233 (Anchor mode)
Each band is colored Up or Down by comparing its upper MA to the anchor (the 6th MA in inputs, default length 233).
If MA > anchor → Up color (supportive regime).
If MA < anchor → Down color (resistive regime).
2. By Alignment
All bands share one color depending on strict ordering:
Up if MA1 > MA2 > MA3 > MA4 > MA5 > MA6
Down if MA1 < MA2 < MA3 < MA4 < MA5 < MA6
Gray otherwise (no clean alignment).
Inputs (key)
MA Type : EMA / SMA / WMA (applies to all six MAs).
MA 1…MA 6 (anchor) : lengths for each average (defaults form a classic ribbon up to 233).
Up/Down colors : band palette.
Base transparency / step : controls band opacity gradient (top band uses Base, each next band adds Step).
Show MA lines + Lines transparency : optionally draw the six MA curves.
How to read it
Directional bias : when most bands are green (anchor mode) or the whole ribbon is green (alignment mode), momentum favors the upside; red implies downside pressure.
Quality of trend : a persistent alignment (all ordered) signals a cleaner trend. Mixed/gray suggests chop or transition.
Pullback zones : price returning toward inner bands can mark areas to watch for continuation vs. failure.
Implementation notes
No higher-timeframe data, no lookahead — this is a non-repainting, current-TF visualization.
Bands still render even when MA lines are hidden (the script uses hidden plot anchors under the hood).
This is an indicator , not a strategy — it does not open/close trades or calculate P&L.
Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always test on historical data and manage risk appropriately.
Auto-Fit Growth Trendline# **Theoretical Algorithmic Principles of the Auto-Fit Growth Trendline (AFGT)**
## **🎯 What Does This Algorithm Do?**
The Auto-Fit Growth Trendline is an advanced technical analysis system that **automates the identification of long-term growth trends** and **projects future price levels** based on historical cyclical patterns.
### **Primary Functionality:**
- **Automatically detects** the most significant lows in regular periods (monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually)
- **Constructs a dynamic trendline** that connects these historical lows
- **Projects the trend into the future** with high mathematical precision
- **Generates Fibonacci bands** that act as dynamic support and resistance levels
- **Automatically adapts** to different timeframes and market conditions
### **Strategic Purpose:**
The algorithm is designed to identify **fundamental value zones** where price has historically found support, enabling traders to:
- Identify optimal entry points for long positions
- Establish realistic price targets based on mathematical projections
- Recognize dynamic support and resistance levels
- Anticipate long-term price movements
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## **🧮 Core Mathematical Foundations**
### **Adaptive Temporal Segmentation Theory**
The algorithm is based on **dynamic temporal partition theory**, where time is divided into mathematically coherent uniform intervals. It uses modular transformations to create bijective mappings between continuous timestamps and discrete periods, ensuring each temporal point belongs uniquely to a specific period.
**What does this achieve?** It allows the algorithm to automatically identify natural market cycles (annual, quarterly, etc.) without manual intervention, adapting to the inherent periodicity of each asset.
The temporal mapping function implements a **discrete affine transformation** that normalizes different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, annual) to a space of unique identifiers, enabling consistent cross-temporal comparative analysis.
---
## **📊 Local Extrema Detection Theory**
### **Multi-Point Retrospective Validation Principle**
Local minima detection is founded on **relative extrema theory with sliding window**. Instead of using a simple minimum finder, it implements a cross-validation system that examines the persistence of the extremum across multiple historical periods.
**What problem does this solve?** It eliminates false minima caused by temporal volatility, identifying only those points that represent true historical support levels with statistical significance.
This approach is based on the **statistical confirmation principle**, where a minimum is only considered valid if it maintains its extremum condition during a defined observation period, significantly reducing false positives caused by transitory volatility.
---
## **🔬 Robust Interpolation Theory with Outlier Control**
### **Contextual Adaptive Interpolation Model**
The mathematical core uses **piecewise linear interpolation with adaptive outlier correction**. The key innovation lies in implementing a **contextual anomaly detector** that identifies not only absolute extreme values, but relative deviations to the local context.
**Why is this important?** Financial markets contain extreme events (crashes, bubbles) that can distort projections. This system identifies and appropriately weights them without completely eliminating them, preserving directional information while attenuating distortions.
### **Implicit Bayesian Smoothing Algorithm**
When an outlier is detected (deviation >300% of local average), the system applies a **simplified Kalman filter** that combines the current observation with a local trend estimation, using a weight factor that preserves directional information while attenuating extreme fluctuations.
---
## **📈 Stabilized Extrapolation Theory**
### **Exponential Growth Model with Dampening**
Extrapolation is based on a **modified exponential growth model with progressive dampening**. It uses multiple historical points to calculate local growth ratios, implements statistical filtering to eliminate outliers, and applies a dampening factor that increases with extrapolation distance.
**What advantage does this offer?** Long-term projections in finance tend to be exponentially unrealistic. This system maintains short-to-medium term accuracy while converging toward realistic long-term projections, avoiding the typical "exponential explosions" of other methods.
### **Asymptotic Convergence Principle**
For long-term projections, the algorithm implements **controlled asymptotic convergence**, where growth ratios gradually converge toward pre-established limits, avoiding unrealistic exponential projections while preserving short-to-medium term accuracy.
---
## **🌟 Dynamic Fibonacci Projection Theory**
### **Continuous Proportional Scaling Model**
Fibonacci bands are constructed through **uniform proportional scaling** of the base curve, where each level represents a linear transformation of the main curve by a constant factor derived from the Fibonacci sequence.
**What is its practical utility?** It provides dynamic resistance and support levels that move with the trend, offering price targets and profit-taking points that automatically adapt to market evolution.
### **Topological Preservation Principle**
The system maintains the **topological properties** of the base curve in all Fibonacci projections, ensuring that spatial and temporal relationships are consistently preserved across all resistance/support levels.
---
## **⚡ Adaptive Computational Optimization**
### **Multi-Scale Resolution Theory**
It implements **automatic multi-resolution analysis** where data granularity is dynamically adjusted according to the analysis timeframe. It uses the **adaptive Nyquist principle** to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio according to the temporal observation scale.
**Why is this necessary?** Different timeframes require different levels of detail. A 1-minute chart needs more granularity than a monthly one. This system automatically optimizes resolution for each case.
### **Adaptive Density Algorithm**
Calculation point density is optimized through **adaptive sampling theory**, where calculation frequency is adjusted according to local trend curvature and analysis timeframe, balancing visual precision with computational efficiency.
---
## **🛡️ Robustness and Fault Tolerance**
### **Graceful Degradation Theory**
The system implements **multi-level graceful degradation**, where under error conditions or insufficient data, the algorithm progressively falls back to simpler but reliable methods, maintaining basic functionality under any condition.
**What does this guarantee?** That the indicator functions consistently even with incomplete data, new symbols with limited history, or extreme market conditions.
### **State Consistency Principle**
It uses **mathematical invariants** to guarantee that the algorithm's internal state remains consistent between executions, implementing consistency checks that validate data structure integrity in each iteration.
---
## **🔍 Key Theoretical Innovations**
### **A. Contextual vs. Absolute Outlier Detection**
It revolutionizes traditional outlier detection by considering not only the absolute magnitude of deviations, but their relative significance within the local context of the time series.
**Practical impact:** It distinguishes between legitimate market movements and technical anomalies, preserving important events like breakouts while filtering noise.
### **B. Extrapolation with Weighted Historical Memory**
It implements a memory system that weights different historical periods according to their relevance for current prediction, creating projections more adaptable to market regime changes.
**Competitive advantage:** It automatically adapts to fundamental changes in asset dynamics without requiring manual recalibration.
### **C. Automatic Multi-Timeframe Adaptation**
It develops an automatic temporal resolution selection system that optimizes signal extraction according to the intrinsic characteristics of the analysis timeframe.
**Result:** A single indicator that functions optimally from 1-minute to monthly charts without manual adjustments.
### **D. Intelligent Asymptotic Convergence**
It introduces the concept of controlled asymptotic convergence in financial extrapolations, where long-term projections converge toward realistic limits based on historical fundamentals.
**Added value:** Mathematically sound long-term projections that avoid the unrealistic extremes typical of other extrapolation methods.
---
## **📊 Complexity and Scalability Theory**
### **Optimized Linear Complexity Model**
The algorithm maintains **linear computational complexity** O(n) in the number of historical data points, guaranteeing scalability for extensive time series analysis without performance degradation.
### **Temporal Locality Principle**
It implements **temporal locality**, where the most expensive operations are concentrated in the most relevant temporal regions (recent periods and near projections), optimizing computational resource usage.
---
## **🎯 Convergence and Stability**
### **Probabilistic Convergence Theory**
The system guarantees **probabilistic convergence** toward the real underlying trend, where projection accuracy increases with the amount of available historical data, following **law of large numbers** principles.
**Practical implication:** The more history an asset has, the more accurate the algorithm's projections will be.
### **Guaranteed Numerical Stability**
It implements **intrinsic numerical stability** through the use of robust floating-point arithmetic and validations that prevent overflow, underflow, and numerical error propagation.
**Result:** Reliable operation even with extreme-priced assets (from satoshis to thousand-dollar stocks).
---
## **💼 Comprehensive Practical Application**
**The algorithm functions as a "financial GPS"** that:
1. **Identifies where we've been** (significant historical lows)
2. **Determines where we are** (current position relative to the trend)
3. **Projects where we're going** (future trend with specific price levels)
4. **Provides alternative routes** (Fibonacci bands as alternative targets)
This theoretical framework represents an innovative synthesis of time series analysis, approximation theory, and computational optimization, specifically designed for long-term financial trend analysis with robust and mathematically grounded projections.
ATR RopeATR Rope is inspired by DonovanWall's "Range Filter". It implements a similar concept of filtering out smaller market movements and adjusting only for larger moves. In addition, this indicator goes one step deeper by producing actionable zones to determine market state. (Trend vs. Consolidation)
> Background
When reading up on the Range Filter indicator, it reminded me exactly of a Rope stabilization drawing tool in a program I use frequently. Rope stabilization essentially attaches a fixed length "rope" to your cursor and an anchor point (Brush). As you move your cursor, you are pulling the brush behind it. The cursor (of course) will not pull the brush until the rope is fully extended, this behavior filters out jittery movements and is used to produce smoother drawing curves.
If compared visually side-by-side, you will notice that this indicator bears striking resemblance to its inspiration.
> Goal
Other than simply distinguishing price movements between meaningful and noise, this indicator strives to create a rigid structure to frame market movements and lack-there-of, such as when to anticipate trend, and when to suspect consolidation.
Since the indicator works based on an ATR range, the resulting ATR Channel does well to get reactions from price at its extremes. Naturally, when consolidating, price will remain within the channel, neither pushing the channel significantly up or down. Likewise, when trending, price will continue to push the channel in a single direction.
With the goal of keeping it quick and simple, this indicator does not do any smoothing of data feeds, and is simply based on the deviation of price from the central rope. Adjusting the rope when price extends past the threshold created by +/- ATR from the rope.
> Features & Behaviors
- ATR Rope
ATR Rope is displayed as a 3 color single line.
This can be considered the center line, or the directional line, whichever you'd prefer.
The main point of the Rope display is to indicate direction, however it also is factually the center of the current working range.
- ATR Rope Color
When the rope's value moves up, it changes to green (uptrend), when down, red (downtrend).
When the source crosses the rope, it turns blue (flat).
With these simple rules, we've formed a structure to view market movements.
- Consolidation Zones
Consolidation Zones generate from "Flat" areas, and extend into subsequent trend areas. Consolidation is simply areas where price has crossed the Rope and remains inside the range. Over these periods, the upper and lower values are accumulated and averaged together to form the "Consolidation Zone" values. These zones are draw live, so values are averaged as the flat areas progress and don't repaint, so all values seen historically are as they would appear live.
- ATR Channel
ATR Channel displays the upper and lower bounds of the working range.
When the source moves beyond this range, the rope is adjusted based on the distance from the source to the channel. This range can be extremely useful to view, but by default it is hidden.
> Application
This indicator is not created to provide signals, or serve as a "complete" system.
(People who didn't read this far will still comment for signals. :) )
This is created to be used alongside manual interpretation and intuition. This indicator is not meant to constrain any users into a box, and I would actually encourage an open mind and idea generation, as the application of this indicator can take various forms.
> Examples
As you would probably already know, price movement can be fast impulses, and movement can be slow bleeds. In the screenshot below, we are using movements from and to consolidation zones to classify weak trend and strong trend. As you can see, there are also areas of consolidation which get broken out of and confirmed for the larger moves.
Author's Note: In each of these examples, I have outlined the start and end of each session. These examples come from 1 Min Future charts, and have specifically been framed with day trading in mind.
"Breakout Retest" or "Support/Resistance Flips" or "Structure Retests" are all generally the same thing, with different traders referring to them by different names, all of which can be seen throughout these examples.
In the next example, we have a day which started with an early reversal leading into long, slow, trend. Notice how each area throughout the trend essentially moves slightly higher, then consolidates while holding support of the previous zone. This day had a few sharp movements, however there was a large amount of neutrality throughout this day with continuous higher lows.
In contrast to the previous example, next up, we have a very choppy day. Throughout which we see a significant amount of retests before fast directional movements. We also see a few examples of places where previous zones remained relevant into the future. While the zones only display into the resulting trend area, they do not become immediately meaningless once they stop drawing.
> Abstract
In the screenshot below, I have stacked 2 of these indicators, using the high as the source for one and the low as the source for the other. I've hidden lines of the high and low channels to create a 4 lined channel based on the wicks of price.
This is not necessary to use the indicator, but should help provide an idea of creative ways the simple indicator could be used to produce more complicated analysis.
If you've made it this far, I would hope it's clear to you how this indicator could provide value to your trading.
Thank you to DonovonWall for the inspiration.
Enjoy!
Triple StochasticTriple Stochastic Elasticity Indicator
This custom indicator leverages the power of multi-timeframe analysis by combining three Stochastic Oscillators across different timeframes to identify potential trade entries based on elasticity and divergence between momentum curves.
📊 How It Works:
The indicator plots Stochastic values from three timeframes (e.g., 5m, 15m, and 1h), allowing you to observe how momentum behaves at different scales.
It highlights moments of elasticity—where the Stochastics stretch apart and then begin to converge—potentially signaling a reversion opportunity or trend continuation.
By identifying these stretches and snapbacks in momentum alignment, you can better time your entries and exits with improved confidence.
🔍 Use Case:
Look for divergence or convergence between the Stochastics.
Ideal for trend-following entries, pullback setups, and momentum reversal spotting.
Works best when combined with price action, S/R zones, or volume confirmation.
🛠 Customization:
Timeframes for each Stochastic are fully customizable.
Options to tweak %K, %D, and smoothing values to fit your strategy.
I recommend to remove the D%
And set the following settings
5 : 3 : 3
14 : 3 : 3
56 : 12 :12
Visual alerts can be added for when certain conditions are met (e.g., all three Stochs cross overbought/oversold levels).
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
DeepSignalFilterHelpersLibrary "DeepSignalFilterHelpers"
filter_intraday_intensity(useIiiFilter)
Parameters:
useIiiFilter (bool)
filter_vwma(src, length, useVwmaFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (int)
useVwmaFilter (bool)
filter_nvi(useNviFilter)
Parameters:
useNviFilter (bool)
filter_emv(length, emvThreshold, useEmvFilter, useMovingAvg)
EMV filter for filtering signals based on Ease of Movement
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the EMV calculation
emvThreshold (float) : The EMV threshold
useEmvFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the EMV filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_adi(length, threshold, useAdiFilter, useMovingAvg)
ADI filter for filtering signals based on Accumulation/Distribution Index
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the ADI moving average calculation
threshold (float) : The ADI threshold
useAdiFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the ADI filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_mfi(length, mfiThreshold, useMfiFilter, useMovingAvg)
MFI filter for filtering signals based on Money Flow Index
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the MFI calculation
mfiThreshold (float) : The MFI threshold
useMfiFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the MFI filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
detect_obv_states(obvThresholdStrong, obvThresholdModerate, lookbackPeriod, obvMode)
detect_obv_states: Identify OBV states with three levels (Strong, Moderate, Weak) over a configurable period
Parameters:
obvThresholdStrong (float) : Threshold for strong OBV movements
obvThresholdModerate (float) : Threshold for moderate OBV movements
lookbackPeriod (int) : Number of periods to analyze OBV trends
obvMode (string) : OBV mode to filter ("Strong", "Moderate", "Weak")
Returns: OBV state ("Strong Up", "Moderate Up", "Weak Up", "Positive Divergence", "Negative Divergence", "Consolidation", "Weak Down", "Moderate Down", "Strong Down")
filter_obv(src, length, obvMode, threshold, useObvFilter, useMovingAvg)
filter_obv: Filter signals based on OBV states
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series (default: close)
length (int) : The length of the OBV moving average calculation
obvMode (string) : OBV mode to filter ("Strong", "Moderate", "Weak")
threshold (float) : Optional threshold for additional filtering
useObvFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the OBV filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_cmf(length, cmfThreshold, useCmfFilter, useMovingAvg)
CMF filter for filtering signals based on Chaikin Money Flow
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the CMF calculation
cmfThreshold (float) : The CMF threshold
useCmfFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the CMF filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_vwap(useVwapFilter)
VWAP filter for filtering signals based on Volume-Weighted Average Price
Parameters:
useVwapFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the VWAP filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_pvt(length, pvtThreshold, usePvtFilter, useMovingAvg)
PVT filter for filtering signals based on Price Volume Trend
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the PVT moving average calculation
pvtThreshold (float) : The PVT threshold
usePvtFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the PVT filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_vo(shortLength, longLength, voThreshold, useVoFilter, useMovingAvg)
VO filter for filtering signals based on Volume Oscillator
Parameters:
shortLength (int) : The length of the short-term volume moving average
longLength (int) : The length of the long-term volume moving average
voThreshold (float) : The Volume Oscillator threshold
useVoFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the VO filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_cho(shortLength, longLength, choThreshold, useChoFilter, useMovingAvg)
CHO filter for filtering signals based on Chaikin Oscillator
Parameters:
shortLength (int) : The length of the short-term ADI moving average
longLength (int) : The length of the long-term ADI moving average
choThreshold (float) : The Chaikin Oscillator threshold
useChoFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the CHO filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_fi(length, fiThreshold, useFiFilter, useMovingAvg)
FI filter for filtering signals based on Force Index
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the FI calculation
fiThreshold (float) : The Force Index threshold
useFiFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the FI filter
useMovingAvg (bool) : Whether to use moving average as threshold
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_garman_klass_volatility(length, useGkFilter)
Parameters:
length (int)
useGkFilter (bool)
filter_frama(src, length, useFramaFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (int)
useFramaFilter (bool)
filter_bollinger_bands(src, length, stdDev, useBollingerFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (int)
stdDev (float)
useBollingerFilter (bool)
filter_keltner_channel(src, length, atrMult, useKeltnerFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (simple int)
atrMult (float)
useKeltnerFilter (bool)
regime_filter(src, threshold, useRegimeFilter)
Regime filter for filtering signals based on trend strength
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter
useRegimeFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the regime filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
regime_filter_v2(src, threshold, useRegimeFilter)
Regime filter for filtering signals based on trend strength
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter
useRegimeFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the regime filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_adx(src, length, adxThreshold, useAdxFilter)
ADX filter for filtering signals based on ADX strength
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
length (simple int) : The length of the ADX calculation
adxThreshold (int) : The ADX threshold
useAdxFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the ADX filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_volatility(minLength, maxLength, useVolatilityFilter)
Volatility filter for filtering signals based on volatility
Parameters:
minLength (simple int) : The minimum length for ATR calculation
maxLength (simple int) : The maximum length for ATR calculation
useVolatilityFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the volatility filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_ulcer(src, length, ulcerThreshold, useUlcerFilter)
Ulcer Index filter for filtering signals based on Ulcer Index
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
length (int) : The length of the Ulcer Index calculation
ulcerThreshold (float) : The Ulcer Index threshold (default: average Ulcer Index)
useUlcerFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the Ulcer Index filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_stddev(src, length, stdDevThreshold, useStdDevFilter)
Standard Deviation filter for filtering signals based on Standard Deviation
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
length (int) : The length of the Standard Deviation calculation
stdDevThreshold (float) : The Standard Deviation threshold (default: average Standard Deviation)
useStdDevFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the Standard Deviation filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_macdv(src, shortLength, longLength, signalSmoothing, macdVThreshold, useMacdVFilter)
MACD-V filter for filtering signals based on MACD-V
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
shortLength (simple int) : The short length for MACD calculation
longLength (simple int) : The long length for MACD calculation
signalSmoothing (simple int) : The signal smoothing length for MACD
macdVThreshold (float) : The MACD-V threshold (default: average MACD-V)
useMacdVFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the MACD-V filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_atr(length, atrThreshold, useAtrFilter)
ATR filter for filtering signals based on Average True Range (ATR)
Parameters:
length (simple int) : The length of the ATR calculation
atrThreshold (float) : The ATR threshold (default: average ATR)
useAtrFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the ATR filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_candle_body_and_atr(length, bodyThreshold, atrThreshold, useFilter)
Candle Body and ATR filter for filtering signals
Parameters:
length (simple int) : The length of the ATR calculation
bodyThreshold (float) : The threshold for candle body size (relative to ATR)
atrThreshold (float) : The ATR threshold (default: average ATR)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the candle body and ATR filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_atrp(length, atrpThreshold, useAtrpFilter)
ATRP filter for filtering signals based on ATR Percentage (ATRP)
Parameters:
length (simple int) : The length of the ATR calculation
atrpThreshold (float) : The ATRP threshold (default: average ATRP)
useAtrpFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the ATRP filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_jma(src, length, phase, useJmaFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (simple int)
phase (float)
useJmaFilter (bool)
filter_cidi(src, rsiLength, shortMaLength, longMaLength, useCidiFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
rsiLength (simple int)
shortMaLength (int)
longMaLength (int)
useCidiFilter (bool)
filter_rsi(src, length, rsiThreshold, useRsiFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (simple int)
rsiThreshold (float)
useRsiFilter (bool)
filter_ichimoku_oscillator(length, threshold, useFilter)
Ichimoku Oscillator filter for filtering signals based on Ichimoku Oscillator
Parameters:
length (int) : The length of the Ichimoku Oscillator calculation
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average Ichimoku Oscillator)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_cmb_composite_index(src, shortLength, longLength, threshold, useFilter)
CMB Composite Index filter for filtering signals based on CMB Composite Index
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
shortLength (simple int) : The short length for CMB calculation
longLength (simple int) : The long length for CMB calculation
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average CMB Composite Index)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_connors_rsi(src, rsiLength, rocLength, streakLength, threshold, useFilter)
Connors RSI filter for filtering signals based on Connors RSI
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
rsiLength (simple int) : The length for RSI calculation
rocLength (int) : The length for ROC calculation
streakLength (simple int) : The length for streak calculation
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average Connors RSI)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_coppock_curve(src, roc1Length, roc2Length, wmaLength, threshold, useFilter)
Coppock Curve filter for filtering signals based on Coppock Curve
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
roc1Length (int) : The length for the first ROC calculation
roc2Length (int) : The length for the second ROC calculation
wmaLength (int) : The length for the WMA calculation
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average Coppock Curve)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_pmo(src, pmoLength, smoothingLength, threshold, useFilter)
DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator filter for filtering signals based on PMO
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
pmoLength (simple int) : The length for PMO calculation
smoothingLength (simple int) : The smoothing length for PMO
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average PMO Oscillator)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_macd(src, shortLength, longLength, signalSmoothing, threshold, useFilter)
MACD filter for filtering signals based on MACD
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
shortLength (simple int) : The short length for MACD calculation
longLength (simple int) : The long length for MACD calculation
signalSmoothing (simple int) : The signal smoothing length for MACD
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average MACD)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_macd_histogram(src, shortLength, longLength, signalSmoothing, threshold, useFilter)
MACD-Histogram filter for filtering signals based on MACD-Histogram
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
shortLength (simple int) : The short length for MACD calculation
longLength (simple int) : The long length for MACD calculation
signalSmoothing (simple int) : The signal smoothing length for MACD
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average MACD-Histogram)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_kst(src, r1, r2, r3, r4, sm1, sm2, sm3, sm4, signalLength, threshold, useFilter)
Pring's Know Sure Thing filter for filtering signals based on KST
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
r1 (int) : The first ROC length
r2 (int) : The second ROC length
r3 (int) : The third ROC length
r4 (int) : The fourth ROC length
sm1 (int) : The first smoothing length
sm2 (int) : The second smoothing length
sm3 (int) : The third smoothing length
sm4 (int) : The fourth smoothing length
signalLength (int) : The signal line smoothing length
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average KST Oscillator)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_special_k(src, r1, r2, r3, r4, sm1, sm2, sm3, sm4, threshold, useFilter)
Pring's Special K filter for filtering signals based on Special K
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
r1 (int) : The first ROC length
r2 (int) : The second ROC length
r3 (int) : The third ROC length
r4 (int) : The fourth ROC length
sm1 (int) : The first smoothing length
sm2 (int) : The second smoothing length
sm3 (int) : The third smoothing length
sm4 (int) : The fourth smoothing length
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average Special K)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_roc_momentum(src, rocLength, momentumLength, threshold, useFilter)
ROC and Momentum filter for filtering signals based on ROC and Momentum
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
rocLength (int) : The length for ROC calculation
momentumLength (int) : The length for Momentum calculation
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average ROC and Momentum)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_rrg_relative_strength(src, length, threshold, useFilter)
RRG Relative Strength filter for filtering signals based on RRG Relative Strength
Parameters:
src (float) : The source series
length (int) : The length for RRG Relative Strength calculation
threshold (float) : The threshold for the filter (default: average RRG Relative Strength)
useFilter (bool) : Whether to apply the filter
Returns: Filtered result indicating whether the signal should be used
filter_alligator(useFilter)
Parameters:
useFilter (bool)
filter_wyckoff(useFilter)
Parameters:
useFilter (bool)
filter_squeeze_momentum(bbLength, bbStdDev, kcLength, kcMult, useFilter)
Parameters:
bbLength (int)
bbStdDev (float)
kcLength (simple int)
kcMult (float)
useFilter (bool)
filter_atr_compression(length, atrThreshold, useFilter)
Parameters:
length (simple int)
atrThreshold (float)
useFilter (bool)
filter_low_volume(length, useFilter)
Parameters:
length (int)
useFilter (bool)
filter_nvi_accumulation(useFilter)
Parameters:
useFilter (bool)
filter_ma_slope(src, length, slopeThreshold, useFilter)
Parameters:
src (float)
length (int)
slopeThreshold (float)
useFilter (bool)
filter_adx_low(len, lensig, adxThreshold, useFilter)
Parameters:
len (simple int)
lensig (simple int)
adxThreshold (int)
useFilter (bool)
filter_choppiness_index(length, chopThreshold, useFilter)
Parameters:
length (int)
chopThreshold (float)
useFilter (bool)
filter_range_detection(length, useFilter)
Parameters:
length (int)
useFilter (bool)
Vesica Piscis Visualization-Secret Geometry-AYNETExplanation
Customization Options:
circle_radius: Adjust the size of the circles.
line_color: Choose the color of the circles.
line_width: Adjust the thickness of the circle lines.
segments: Increase or decrease the smoothness of the circles (higher values make smoother circles but use more computational resources).
Placement:
The first circle is centered at circle1_x and the second is offset horizontally by 2 * circle_radius to ensure their centers intersect each other's circumference.
Intersection Highlight:
The intersection area is visually emphasized with a semi-transparent background (bgcolor), which can be customized or removed if unnecessary.
Smoothness:
The segments input determines how many points are used to create each circle. Higher values create smoother curves.
Adjustments
Ensure the circles fit within the visible chart area by adjusting circle1_x and circle_radius.
If needed, you can add additional features, such as drawing lines to connect the centers or labeling the Vesica Piscis region.
Let me know if you want further refinements or additional features!
DRKMetricsLibrary "DRKMetrics"
TODO: add library description here
curve(disp_ind)
Call function to get a certain curve of your strategy.
Parameters:
disp_ind (string)
Returns: Returns type of curve plot.
cleaner(disp_ind, plot)
Call function to filter out your Strategy plots
Parameters:
disp_ind (string)
plot (float)
cobraTable(option, position)
Assign this function to a random variable to get the "Performance Table"
Parameters:
option (simple string)
position (simple string)
Enhanced Economic Composite with Dynamic WeightEnhanced Economic Composite with Dynamic Weight
Overview of the Indicator :
The "Enhanced Economic Composite with Dynamic Weight" is a comprehensive tool that combines multiple economic indicators, technical signals, and dynamic weighting to provide insights into market and economic health. It adjusts based on current volatility and recession risk, offering a detailed view of market conditions.
What This Indicator Does :
Tracks Economic Health: Uses key economic and market indicators to assess overall market conditions.
Dynamic Weighting: Adjusts the importance of components like stock indices, gold, and bonds based on volatility (VIX) and yield curve inversion.
Technical Signals: Identifies market momentum shifts through key crossovers like the Golden Cross, Death Cross, Silver Cross, and Hospice Cross.
Recession Shading: Marks known recessions for historical context.
Economic Factors Considered :
TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): Reflects inflation expectations.
Gold: A safe-haven asset, increases in weight during volatility or rising momentum.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Measures USD strength, fixed weight of 10%, smoothed with EMA.
Commodities (DBC): Indicates global demand; weight increases with momentum or volatility.
Volatility Index (VIX): Reflects market risk, inversely related to market confidence.
Stock Indices (S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ, Russell 2000): Represent market performance, with weights reduced during high volatility or negative yield spread.
Yield Spread (10Y - 2Y Treasuries): Predicts recessions; negative spread reduces stock weighting.
Credit Spread (HYG - TLT): Indicates market risk through corporate vs. government bond yields.
How and Why Factors are Weighted:
Stock Indices get more weight in stable markets (low VIX, positive yield spread), while safe-haven assets like gold and bonds gain weight in volatile markets or during yield curve inversions. This dynamic adjustment ensures the composite reflects current market sentiment.
Technical Signals:
Golden Cross: 50 EMA crossing above 200 SMA, signaling bullish momentum.
Death Cross: 50 EMA below 200 SMA, indicating bearish momentum.
Silver Cross: 21 EMA crossing above 50 EMA, plotted only if below the 200-day SMA, signaling potential upside in downtrend conditions.
Hospice Cross: 50 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, plotted only if 21 EMA is below 200 SMA, a leading bearish signal.
Recession Shading:
Recession periods like the Great Recession, Early 2000s Recession, and COVID-19 Recession are shaded to provide historical context.
Benefits of Using This Indicator:
Comprehensive Analysis: Combines economic fundamentals and technical analysis for a full market view.
Dynamic Risk Adjustment: Weights shift between growth and safe-haven assets based on volatility and recession risk.
Early Signals: The Silver Cross and Hospice Cross provide early warnings of potential market shifts.
Recession Forecasting: Helps predict downturns through the yield curve and recession indicators.
Who Can Benefit:
Traders: Identify market momentum shifts early through crossovers.
Long-term Investors: Use recession warnings and dynamic adjustments to protect portfolios.
Analysts: A holistic tool for analyzing both economic trends and market movements.
This indicator helps users navigate varying market conditions by dynamically adjusting based on economic factors and providing early technical signals for market momentum shifts.
Machine Learning Signal FilterIntroducing the "Machine Learning Signal Filter," an innovative trading indicator designed to leverage the power of machine learning to enhance trading strategies. This tool combines advanced data processing capabilities with user-friendly customization options, offering traders a sophisticated yet accessible means to optimize their market analysis and decision-making processes. Importantly, this indicator does not repaint, ensuring that signals remain consistent and reliable after they are generated.
Machine Learning Integration
The "Machine Learning Signal Filter" employs machine learning algorithms to analyze historical price data and identify patterns that may not be immediately apparent through traditional technical analysis. By utilizing techniques such as regression analysis and neural networks, the indicator continuously learns from new data, refining its predictive capabilities over time. This dynamic adaptability allows the indicator to adjust to changing market conditions, potentially improving the accuracy of trading signals.
Key Features and Benefits
Dynamic Signal Generation: The indicator uses machine learning to generate buy and sell signals based on complex data patterns. This approach enables it to adapt to evolving market trends, offering traders timely and relevant insights. Crucially, the indicator does not repaint, providing reliable signals that traders can trust.
Customizable Parameters: Users can fine-tune the indicator to suit their specific trading styles by adjusting settings such as the temporal synchronization and neural pulse rate. This flexibility ensures that the indicator can be tailored to different market environments.
Visual Clarity and Usability: The indicator provides clear visual cues on the chart, including color-coded signals and optional display of signal curves. Users can also customize the table's position and text size, enhancing readability and ease of use.
Comprehensive Performance Metrics: The indicator includes a detailed metrics table that displays key performance indicators such as return rates, trade counts, and win/loss ratios. This feature helps traders assess the effectiveness of their strategies and make data-driven decisions.
How It Works
The core of the "Machine Learning Signal Filter" is its ability to process and learn from large datasets. By applying machine learning models, the indicator identifies potential trading opportunities based on historical data patterns. It uses regression techniques to predict future price movements and neural networks to enhance pattern recognition. As new data is introduced, the indicator refines its algorithms, improving its accuracy and reliability over time.
Use Cases
Trend Following: Ideal for traders seeking to capitalize on market trends, the indicator helps identify the direction and strength of price movements.
Scalping: With its ability to provide quick signals, the indicator is suitable for scalpers aiming for rapid profits in volatile markets.
Risk Management: By offering insights into trade performance, the indicator aids in managing risk and optimizing trade setups.
In summary, the "Machine Learning Signal Filter" is a powerful tool that combines the analytical strength of machine learning with the practical needs of traders. Its ability to adapt and provide actionable insights makes it an invaluable asset for navigating the complexities of financial markets.
The "Machine Learning Signal Filter" is a tool designed to assist traders by providing insights based on historical data and machine learning techniques. It does not guarantee profitable trades and should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and consider their financial situation before making trading decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and it is possible to lose more than the initial investment. Always trade responsibly and be aware of the risks involved.
25-Day Momentum IndexDescription:
The 25-Day Momentum Index (25D MI) is a technical indicator designed to measure the strength and direction of price movements over a 25-day period. Inspired by classic momentum analysis, this indicator helps traders identify trends and potential reversal points in the market.
How It Works:
Momentum Calculation: The 25D MI calculates momentum as the difference between the current closing price and the closing price 25 days ago. This difference provides insights into the market's recent strength or weakness.
Plotting: The indicator plots the Momentum Index as a blue line, showing the raw momentum values. A zero line is also plotted in gray to serve as a reference point for positive and negative momentum.
Highlighting Zones:
Positive Momentum: When the Momentum Index is above zero, it is plotted in green, highlighting positive momentum phases.
Negative Momentum: When the Momentum Index is below zero, it is plotted in red, highlighting negative momentum phases.
Usage:
A rising curve means an increase in upward momentum - if it is above the zero line. A rising curve below the zero line signifies a decrease in downward momentum. By the same token, a falling curve means an increase in downward momentum below the zero line, a decrease in upward momentum above the zero line.
This indicator is ideal for traders looking to complement their strategy with a visual tool that captures the essence of market momentum over a significant period. Use it to enhance your technical analysis and refine your trading decisions.
Relative VolumeHello traders,
"There's nothing new on Wall Street" is an age-old saying that still shows its relevance in modern day financial markets; volume still serves as a valuable tool for any trader just as it did for those that came and succeeded before us; in order to succeed in modern day markets one has to take it up a notch and dabble in complicated topics, like math. Now I dunno about you reader but I’m not keen on sitting around all day just to watch numbers on a screen; it’s pretty important to add some color into your life before it becomes dull but how can someone add colors into their trading toolkit as an aid rather than bother? With a bit of help from 3 other amazing open-source indicators you too can become a statistics enjoyer by combining math and colors to make pattern recognition much more intuitive and offering more peace of mind when trading. “Sir but how?”, glad you didn’t ask, it helps with simplifying statistics, in this case a Gaussian bellcurve
“HUH?”, you say? Alright class, Gaussian bellcurves for math dislikers 101 is in session
- Imagine that we have a bunch of numbers that we want to graph. We could just draw a line and plot the numbers on it, but that might not be very interesting.
- Instead, we can use the shape of a bell to show how many of each number we have.
- Let's say we have a lot of people and we want to graph how tall they are. We would start by making a line from the shortest person to the tallest person, and then we would draw the bell shape around the line.
- The bell shape is called a "Gaussian Bell Curve," and it shows us how many people are a certain height.
- In the middle of the bell, where it's the widest, we have the most people who are about average height. As we move to the sides of the bell, the curve gets lower because there are fewer people who are really tall or really short.
The bell curve discussed is the main idea for the candle coloring component of this indicator as being able to analyze the distribution of an entire dataset, in this case volume, can alert us when volume/participation in the market is away from its average using color, and therefore an opportunity could be present. Fair warning, it’s important to not strictly focus on volume as volume is meant to be confluence to the current structure of the market rather than causing tunnel vision.
Why 3 indicators to combine?
It starts with the RVOL by Mik3Christ3ns3n indicator as the backbone by calculating the average volume over a specified period of time, and then compares each new volume value to this average to determine whether it is above or below the average. The indicator then normalizes the volume data and calculates the z-score/standard deviation to determine whether the volume is within normal range or is an anomaly beyond a specified threshold which can also be set into an alert to aid in eyeing possible opportunities.
The code also includes Candle Coloring by Morty as it calculates a function to get the z-score for the size of the candle's body, and then compares it to the z-score for volume to determine whether the body size is a factor in the price action.
Finally, the code plots the anomalies and the normalized volume data on the chart using the first RVOL indicator mentioned, and colors the bars of the chart based on whether they are within normal range or are anomalies which comes from using code from veryfid's relative volume indicator.
Overall, this custom technical indicator is best used to identify unusual changes in trading volume, which may indicate potential price movements in the underlying.
How about some examples?
This first example is for my scalpers wanting to get in and out but not having much of an idea where or let alone how; using a tool like VWAP can be great for determining the area value to execute mean reversion trades once a speculator spots a colored candle anomaly at standard deviation band. Works best when VWAP is flat as it signals lack of conviction from both bulls and bears
This second example is for my fire and forget intraweek swing traders who want to execute a higher timeframe trend-following bias. A speculator starting 2023 off notices that the negative sentiment around Binance from late last year has quieted down and has conviction in upside after BTC began an uptrend as monthly VWAP (right chart) has began sloping up as well as a rally with momentum shown with the blue colored candle so the trader waits wait for a pullback for entry. On the chart to the left of the 4H the speculator notices a pullback into the area of interest to do business so a limit bid is left to enter for continued upside in Bitcoin through January 2023 just by keeping things simple
That’s really the main purpose of this indicator: simplicity of statistics for confluence using volume
Volume precedes price and price moves only for narrative to follow- why wait for your subjective Twitter timeline to give you a biased narrative to trade when you can use objective analysis by combining statistics and colors to allow for a cleaner execution process
“But what about risk management?” Glad you didn’t ask reader!
One last example then, we meet our trend following trader again feeling euphoric so they know profit taking season is coming soon but wants to leave emotion out of it. How to go about it? Same idea as our last trend following example: we see on the 4h chart to the right side shows Bitcoin lose and trade back within the 2nd standard deviation of quarterly VWAP which is telling our speculator that the uptrend has broken on top of which notices on the 30 minute chart on the left that aggressive market buyers have been steadily absorbed by limit sellers on multiple occasions of retesting 30,500 shown with the green colored candles and volume bars below, time to sell.
Turns out that selling was proactive risk management because price dumped thereafter
Hope this explanation gave you some useful insights on using statistics as colors from cherrypicked examples, remember that just because my examples are cherrypicked doesn’t invalidate these concepts at all as the market only does two things, initiate aggressive auctions and respond passively to auctions. This tool makes for seeing where that initiative aggressive activity is happening much simpler to deduce if others will respond to an anomaly of initiative aggressive activity or if the aggression will continue.
If there’s just one thing you take from this- simplicity above all, cheers and good luck
Fake StrategyTHIS IS A FAKE STRATEGY. PLEASE DO NOT USE THIS FOR TRADING.
Just publishing this to display how easily you can fake backtest results in the strategies. However, there are ways to identify the scams. Let's discuss about major red herrings in a strategy. How to identify them and stay away from them.
Any strategy which proclaims significantly high win rate (such as this) are not practical and can only be achieved via following means
Significantly high risk compared to reward
Trades are set in such a way that profits are taken in small movement whereas stops are significantly farther. By doing this, win rate will surely increase. But, will be picking pennies by risking plenty of capital. General trait of such strategies can be identified by comparing average trade and max drawdown . These kind of strategies will have significantly higher drawdown even though the number of losses are less. For example, 1 losing trade leading to drawdown of 10+% whereas every winning only contributes 0.25%.
We can also see this kind of behaviour in option selling strategies such as 0 and 1 DTE option selling strategies. Here too probability of winning can be pretty high (north of 90%). But, on every winning, you make 1-2% of your capital however on remaining trades, you will lose your complete capital - which leads to overall losing position.
Inducing repainting through code
This strategy is an excellent example of how repainting can be induced via code using request.securities method. There are plenty of ways a strategy or code can be made to repaint. Tradingview user manual has lots of information about repainting. Feel free to read through if you have extra time. If you look at this code, it is very simple to induce repainting in a strategy to make it look like an infinite money printing machine.
High Leverage and lack of usage of margin
Using leverage in pine can show false results. This is because, the strategy engine will not stop when equity goes below 0% until the trade is closed. But, that does not happen in real life. This is the reason why using leverage along with high risk and low reward trades can show false results overall making it look like the strategy is unbeatable. But, when you try to use that in real time, it is likely that account will be blown out.
To understand leverage conditions, please have a look at the strategy property fields - Order Size, Pyramiding, Commission, Slippage, Margin Long/Short.
Curve fitting
If the author claims that strategy will only work on particular set of instrument and particular timeframe, then the strategy is not real. It is curve fitting. Knowingly/Unknowingly author has moulded his strategy to fit what has happened in the past. This is general issue even non malicious author go through. It is very much essential to test the strategy across various set of instruments and timeframes to understand the real capability. Use back-testing as test cases. More test cases you have, more bug free your strategy will be. There are many methods to understand curve fitting and perform better testing of the strategy in hand which can be studied and implemented by authors.
Significantly short trades - a sign of lack of strategy
A strategy built using pine in general work on close of candle. So, all the calculations generally happen upon close of the candle. You can force intra-bar calculations using bar magnifier. But, that is not equivalent to tick data. Due to this reason, I consider any trade happening within a bar (Meaning open and close within the same bar) as not reliable. This is because, it is not possible for strategy back-tester to know whether entry condition is satisfied first or exit in a completely foolproof way. Bar magnifier can help reduce this issue - but will not eradicate this problem completely. If there are lots of trades in a strategy - which are closing within the same bar, this is very likely that the strategy backtest results are not reliable.
Hope this helps at least some people to understand the scams and stay away from it.
Multi TF Trend Indicator
...Mark Douglas in his book Trading in the Zone wrote
The longer the time frame, the more significant the trend, so a trending market on a daily bar chart is more significant than a trending market on a 30-minute bar chart. Therefore, the trend on the daily bar chart would take precedence over the trend on the 30-minute bar chart and would be considered the major trend. To determine the direction of the major trend, look at what is happening on a daily bar chart. If the trend is up on the daily, you are only going to look for a sell-off or retracement down to what your edge defines as support on the 30-minute chart. That's where you will become a buyer. On the other hand, if the trend is down on the daily, you are only going to look for a rally up to what your edge defines as a resistance level to be a seller on the 30-minute chart. Your objective is to determine, in a downtrending market, how far it can rally on an intraday basis and still not violate the symmetry of the longer trend. In an up-trending market, your objective is to determine how far it can sell off on an intraday basis without violating the symmetry of the longer trend. There's usually very little risk associated with these intraday support and resistance points, because you don't have to let the market go very far beyond them to tell you the trade isn't working.
The purpose of this indicator to show both the major and minor trend on the same chart with no need to switch between timeframes
Script includes
timeframe to determine the major trend
price curve, close price is default, but you can pick MA you want
type of coloring, either curve color or the background color
Implementation details
major trend is determined by the slope of the price curve
Further improvements
a variation of techniques for determining the major trend (crossing MA, pivot points etc.)
major trend change alerts
Thanks @loxx for pullData helper function
Many Moving AveragesA smooth looking indicator created from a mix of ALMA and LRC curves. Includes alternative calculation for both which I came up with through trial and error so a variety of combinations work to varying degrees. Just something I was playing around with that looked pretty nice in the end.
One-Sided Gaussian Filter w/ Channels [Loxx]One-Sided Gaussian Filter w/ Channels is a Gaussian Moving Average that is calculated using a Fibonacci weighting function. Keltner channels have been added to show zones of exhaustion. A better name would be "Half Gaussian bell weighted" or "Half normal distribution weighted" indicator, since the weights for calculation of the average (similar to linear weighted average) are taken from a normal distribution curve like function--but only the half of the curve is used for calculation.
Information of the Gaussian distribution can be found here : en.wikipedia.org and once you take a look at the standard normal distribution curve, it will be much clearer what is exactly done in this indicator.
After the Gaussian Filter is applied to the source input, an Ehlers' 2-Pole Super Smoother is applied to reduce noise without significant lag.
Included:
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Bitcoin Power Law Bands (BTC Power Law) Indicator█ OVERVIEW
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a set of three US dollar price trendlines and two price bands for bitcoin , indicating overall long-term trend, support and resistance levels as well as oversold and overbought conditions. The magnitude and growth of the middle (Center) line is determined by double logarithmic (log-log) regression on the entire USD price history of bitcoin . The upper (Resistance) and lower (Support) lines follow the same trajectory but multiplied by respective (fixed) factors. These two lines indicate levels where the price of bitcoin is expected to meet strong long-term resistance or receive strong long-term support. The two bands between the three lines are price levels where bitcoin may be considered overbought or oversold.
All parameters and visuals may be customized by the user as needed.
█ CONCEPTS
Long-term models
Long-term price models have many challenges, the most significant of which is getting the growth curve right overall. No one can predict how a certain market, asset class, or financial instrument will unfold over several decades. In the case of bitcoin , price history is very limited and extremely volatile, and this further complicates the situation. Fortunately for us, a few smart people already had some bright ideas that seem to have stood the test of time.
Power law
The so-called power law is the only long-term bitcoin price model that has a chance of survival for the years ahead. The idea behind the power law is very simple: over time, the rapid (exponential) initial growth cannot possibly be sustained (see The seduction of the exponential curve for a fun take on this). Year-on-year returns, therefore, must decrease over time, which leads us to the concept of diminishing returns and the power law. In this context, the power law translates to linear growth on a chart with both its axes scaled logarithmically. This is called the log-log chart (as opposed to the semilog chart you see above, on which only one of the axes - price - is logarithmic).
Log-log regression
When both price and time are scaled logarithmically, the power law leads to a linear relationship between them. This in turn allows us to apply linear regression techniques, which will find the best-fitting straight line to the data points in question. The result of performing this log-log regression (i.e. linear regression on a log-log scaled dataset) is two parameters: slope (m) and intercept (b). These parameters fully describe the relationship between price and time as follows: log(P) = m * log(T) + b, where P is price and T is time. Price is measured in US dollars , and Time is counted as the number of days elapsed since bitcoin 's genesis block.
DPC model
The final piece of our puzzle is the Dynamic Power Cycle (DPC) price model of bitcoin . DPC is a long-term cyclic model that uses the power law as its foundation, to which a periodic component stemming from the block subsidy halving cycle is applied dynamically. The regression parameters of this model are re-calculated daily to ensure longevity. For the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator, the slope and intercept parameters were calculated on publication date (March 6, 2022). The slope of the Resistance Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Nov 2021 cycle peak. The slope of the Support Line is the same as that of the Center Line; its intercept was determined by fitting the line onto the Dec 2018 trough of the previous cycle. Please see the Limitations section below on the implications of a static model.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Parameters
• Center Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the grey line in the middle
• Resistance Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the red line at the top
• Support Intercept (b) and Slope (m): These log-log regression parameters control the behavior of the green line at the bottom
• Controls
• Plot Line Fill: N/A
• Plot Opportunity Label: Controls the display of current price level relative to the Center, Resistance and Support Lines
Style
• Visuals
• Center: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Center Line
• Resistance: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Resistance Line
• Support: Control, color, opacity, thickness, price line control and line style of the Support Line
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Upper Band
• Plots Background: Control, color and opacity of the Lower Band
• Labels: N/A
• Output
• Labels on price scale: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values on the price scale
• Values in status line: Controls the display of current Center, Resistance and Support Line values in the indicator's status line
█ HOW TO USE
The indicator includes three price lines:
• The grey Center Line in the middle shows the overall long-term bitcoin USD price trend
• The red Resistance Line at the top is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to meet strong long-term resistance
• The green Support Line at the bottom is an indication of where the bitcoin USD price is expected to receive strong long-term support
These lines envelope two price bands:
• The red Upper Band between the Center and Resistance Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered overbought (i.e. too expensive)
• The green Lower Band between the Support and Center Lines is an area where bitcoin is considered oversold (i.e. too cheap)
The power law model assumes that the price of bitcoin will fluctuate around the Center Line, by meeting resistance at the Resistance Line and finding support at the Support Line. When the current price is well below the Center Line (i.e. well into the green Lower Band), bitcoin is considered too cheap (oversold). When the current price is well above the Center Line (i.e. well into the red Upper Band), bitcoin is considered too expensive (overbought). This idea alone is not sufficient for profitable trading, but, when combined with other factors, it could guide the user's decision-making process in the right direction.
█ LIMITATIONS
The indicator is based on a static model, and for this reason it will gradually lose its usefulness. The Center Line is the most durable of the three lines since the long-term growth trend of bitcoin seems to deviate little from the power law. However, how far price extends above and below this line will change with every halving cycle (as can be seen for past cycles). Periodic updates will be needed to keep the indicator relevant. The user is invited to adjust the slope and intercept parameters manually between two updates of the indicator.
█ RAMBLINGS
The 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator is a useful tool for users wishing to place bitcoin in a macro context. As described above, the price level relative to the three lines is a rough indication of whether bitcoin is over- or undervalued. Users wishing to gain more insight into bitcoin price trends may follow the author's periodic updates of the DPC model (contact information below).
█ NOTES
The author regularly posts on Twitter using the @DeFi_initiate handle.
█ THANKS
Many thanks to the following individuals, who - one way or another - made the 'Bitcoin Power Law Bands' indicator possible:
• TradingView user 'capriole_charles', whose open-source 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script was the basis for this indicator
• Harold Christopher Burger, whose Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth article (2019) was the basis for the 'Bitcoin Power Law Corridor' script
• Bitcoin Forum user "Trololo", who posted the original power law model at Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value (2014)
