MTF Signal XpertMTF Signal Xpert – Detailed Description
Overview:
MTF Signal Xpert is a proprietary, open‑source trading signal indicator that fuses multiple technical analysis methods into one cohesive strategy. Developed after rigorous backtesting and extensive research, this advanced tool is designed to deliver clear BUY and SELL signals by analyzing trend, momentum, and volatility across various timeframes. Its integrated approach not only enhances signal reliability but also incorporates dynamic risk management, helping traders protect their capital while navigating complex market conditions.
Detailed Explanation of How It Works:
Trend Detection via Moving Averages
Dual Moving Averages:
MTF Signal Xpert computes two moving averages—a fast MA and a slow MA—with the flexibility to choose from Simple (SMA), Exponential (EMA), or Hull (HMA) methods. This dual-MA system helps identify the prevailing market trend by contrasting short-term momentum with longer-term trends.
Crossover Logic:
A BUY signal is initiated when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA, coupled with the condition that the current price is above the lower Bollinger Band. This suggests that the market may be emerging from a lower price region. Conversely, a SELL signal is generated when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA and the price is below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential bearish pressure.
Recent Crossover Confirmation:
To ensure that signals reflect current market dynamics, the script tracks the number of bars since the moving average crossover event. Only crossovers that occur within a user-defined “candle confirmation” period are considered, which helps filter out outdated signals and improves overall signal accuracy.
Volatility and Price Extremes with Bollinger Bands
Calculation of Bands:
Bollinger Bands are calculated using a 20‑period simple moving average as the central basis, with the upper and lower bands derived from a standard deviation multiplier. This creates dynamic boundaries that adjust according to recent market volatility.
Signal Reinforcement:
For BUY signals, the condition that the price is above the lower Bollinger Band suggests an undervalued market condition, while for SELL signals, the price falling below the upper Bollinger Band reinforces the bearish bias. This volatility context adds depth to the moving average crossover signals.
Momentum Confirmation Using Multiple Oscillators
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is computed over 14 periods to determine if the market is in an overbought or oversold state. Only readings within an optimal range (defined by user inputs) validate the signal, ensuring that entries are made during balanced conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is compared with its signal line to assess momentum. A bullish scenario is confirmed when the MACD line is above the signal line, while a bearish scenario is indicated when it is below, thus adding another layer of confirmation.
Awesome Oscillator (AO):
The AO measures the difference between short-term and long-term simple moving averages of the median price. Positive AO values support BUY signals, while negative values back SELL signals, offering additional momentum insight.
ADX (Average Directional Index):
The ADX quantifies trend strength. MTF Signal Xpert only considers signals when the ADX value exceeds a specified threshold, ensuring that trades are taken in strongly trending markets.
Optional Stochastic Oscillator:
An optional stochastic oscillator filter can be enabled to further refine signals. It checks for overbought conditions (supporting SELL signals) or oversold conditions (supporting BUY signals), thus reducing ambiguity.
Multi-Timeframe Verification
Higher Timeframe Filter:
To align short-term signals with broader market trends, the script calculates an EMA on a higher timeframe as specified by the user. This multi-timeframe approach helps ensure that signals on the primary chart are consistent with the overall trend, thereby reducing false signals.
Dynamic Risk Management with ATR
ATR-Based Calculations:
The Average True Range (ATR) is used to measure current market volatility. This value is multiplied by a user-defined factor to dynamically determine stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP) levels, adapting to changing market conditions.
Visual SL/TP Markers:
The calculated SL and TP levels are plotted on the chart as distinct colored dots, enabling traders to quickly identify recommended exit points.
Optional Trailing Stop:
An optional trailing stop feature is available, which adjusts the stop loss as the trade moves favorably, helping to lock in profits while protecting against sudden reversals.
Risk/Reward Ratio Calculation:
MTF Signal Xpert computes a risk/reward ratio based on the dynamic SL and TP levels. This quantitative measure allows traders to assess whether the potential reward justifies the risk associated with a trade.
Condition Weighting and Signal Scoring
Binary Condition Checks:
Each technical condition—ranging from moving average crossovers, Bollinger Band positioning, and RSI range to MACD, AO, ADX, and volume filters—is assigned a binary score (1 if met, 0 if not).
Cumulative Scoring:
These individual scores are summed to generate cumulative bullish and bearish scores, quantifying the overall strength of the signal and providing traders with an objective measure of its viability.
Detailed Signal Explanation:
A comprehensive explanation string is generated, outlining which conditions contributed to the current BUY or SELL signal. This explanation is displayed on an on‑chart dashboard, offering transparency and clarity into the signal generation process.
On-Chart Visualizations and Debug Information
Chart Elements:
The indicator plots all key components—moving averages, Bollinger Bands, SL and TP markers—directly on the chart, providing a clear visual framework for understanding market conditions.
Combined Dashboard:
A dedicated dashboard displays key metrics such as RSI, ADX, and the bullish/bearish scores, alongside a detailed explanation of the current signal. This consolidated view allows traders to quickly grasp the underlying logic.
Debug Table (Optional):
For advanced users, an optional debug table is available. This table breaks down each individual condition, indicating which criteria were met or not met, thus aiding in further analysis and strategy refinement.
Mashup Justification and Originality
MTF Signal Xpert is more than just an aggregation of existing indicators—it is an original synthesis designed to address real-world trading complexities. Here’s how its components work together:
Integrated Trend, Volatility, and Momentum Analysis:
By combining moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and multiple oscillators (RSI, MACD, AO, ADX, and an optional stochastic), the indicator captures diverse market dynamics. Each component reinforces the others, reducing noise and filtering out false signals.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
The inclusion of a higher timeframe filter aligns short-term signals with longer-term trends, enhancing overall reliability and reducing the potential for contradictory signals.
Adaptive Risk Management:
Dynamic stop loss and take profit levels, determined using ATR, ensure that the risk management strategy adapts to current market conditions. The optional trailing stop further refines this approach, protecting profits as the market evolves.
Quantitative Signal Scoring:
The condition weighting system provides an objective measure of signal strength, giving traders clear insight into how each technical component contributes to the final decision.
How to Use MTF Signal Xpert:
Input Customization:
Adjust the moving average type and period settings, ATR multipliers, and oscillator thresholds to align with your trading style and the specific market conditions.
Enable or disable the optional stochastic oscillator and trailing stop based on your preference.
Interpreting the Signals:
When a BUY or SELL signal appears, refer to the on‑chart dashboard, which displays key metrics (e.g., RSI, ADX, bullish/bearish scores) along with a detailed breakdown of the conditions that triggered the signal.
Review the SL and TP markers on the chart to understand the associated risk/reward setup.
Risk Management:
Use the dynamically calculated stop loss and take profit levels as guidelines for setting your exit points.
Evaluate the provided risk/reward ratio to ensure that the potential reward justifies the risk before entering a trade.
Debugging and Verification:
Advanced users can enable the debug table to see a condition-by-condition breakdown of the signal generation process, helping refine the strategy and deepen understanding of market dynamics.
Disclaimer:
MTF Signal Xpert is intended for educational and analytical purposes only. Although it is based on robust technical analysis methods and has undergone extensive backtesting, past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders should employ proper risk management and adjust the settings to suit their financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
MTF Signal Xpert represents a comprehensive, original approach to trading signal generation. By blending trend detection, volatility assessment, momentum analysis, multi-timeframe alignment, and adaptive risk management into one integrated system, it provides traders with actionable signals and the transparency needed to understand the logic behind them.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "moving average crossover"
Moving Average Multitool CrossoverAs per request, this is a moving average crossover version of my original moving average multitool script .
It allows you to easily access and switch between different types of moving averages, without having to continuously add and remove different moving averages from your chart. This should make backtesting moving average crossovers much, much more easier. It also has the option to show buy and sell signals for the crossovers of the chosen moving averages.
It contains the following moving averages:
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
Triangular Moving Average (TMA)
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA)
Kijun-Sen line from the Ichimoku Kinko-Hyo system (Kijun)
McGinley Dynamic (MD)
Rolling Moving Average (RMA)
Jurik Moving Average (JMA)
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
Vector Autoregression Moving Average (VAR)
Welles Wilder Moving Average (WWMA)
Sine Weighted Moving Average (SWMA)
Leo Moving Average (LMA)
Variable Index Dynamic Average (VIDYA)
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA)
Variable Moving Average (VAR)
Geometric Mean Moving Average (GMMA)
Corrective Moving Average (CMA)
Moving Median (MM)
Quick Moving Average (QMA)
Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA)
Volatility-Adjusted Moving Average (VAMA)
Modular Filter (MF)
HMA-Crossover AlertsThis simple script plots bullish and bearish Hull Moving Average Crossovers and fires Alerts when long or short conditions are met.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)This implementation uses O(1) algorithm that eliminates the need to loop through all period values on each bar. It also generates valid WMA values from the first bar and is not returning NA when number of bars is less than period.
## Overview and Purpose
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is a technical indicator that applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data. Emerging in the early 1950s during the formative years of technical analysis, WMA gained significant adoption among professional traders through the 1970s as computational methods became more accessible. The approach was formalized in Robert Colby's 1988 "Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators," establishing it as a staple in technical analysis software. Unlike the Simple Moving Average (SMA) which gives equal weight to all prices, WMA assigns greater importance to recent prices, creating a more responsive indicator that reacts faster to price changes while still providing effective noise filtering.
## Core Concepts
* **Linear weighting:** WMA applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data, creating a recency bias that improves responsiveness
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for identifying trend changes earlier than SMA while maintaining better noise filtering than faster-responding averages like EMA
* **Timeframe flexibility:** Works effectively across all timeframes, with appropriate period adjustments for different trading horizons
The core innovation of WMA is its linear weighting scheme, which strikes a balance between the equal-weight approach of SMA and the exponential decay of EMA. This creates an intuitive and effective compromise that prioritizes recent data while maintaining a finite lookback period, making it particularly valuable for traders seeking to reduce lag without excessive sensitivity to price fluctuations.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Length | 14 | Controls the lookback period | Increase for smoother signals in volatile markets, decrease for responsiveness |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for a more balanced price representation |
**Pro Tip:** For most trading applications, using a WMA with period N provides better responsiveness than an SMA with the same period, while generating fewer whipsaws than an EMA with comparable responsiveness.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
WMA calculates a weighted average of prices where the most recent price receives the highest weight, and each progressively older price receives one unit less weight. For example, in a 5-period WMA, the most recent price gets a weight of 5, the next most recent a weight of 4, and so on, with the oldest price getting a weight of 1.
**Technical formula:**
```
WMA = (P₁ × w₁ + P₂ × w₂ + ... + Pₙ × wₙ) / (w₁ + w₂ + ... + wₙ)
```
Where:
- Linear weights: most recent value has weight = n, second most recent has weight = n-1, etc.
- The sum of weights for a period n is calculated as: n(n+1)/2
- For example, for a 5-period WMA, the sum of weights is 5(5+1)/2 = 15
**O(1) Optimization - Dual Running Sums:**
The key insight is maintaining two running sums:
1. **Unweighted sum (S)**: Simple sum of all values in the window
2. **Weighted sum (W)**: Sum of all weighted values
The recurrence relation for a full window is:
```
W_new = W_old - S_old + (n × P_new)
```
This works because when all weights decrement by 1 (as the window slides), it's mathematically equivalent to subtracting the entire unweighted sum. The implementation:
- **During warmup**: Accumulates both sums as the window fills, computing denominator each bar
- **After warmup**: Uses cached denominator (constant at n(n+1)/2), updates both sums in constant time
- **Performance**: ~8 operations per bar regardless of period, vs ~100+ for naive O(n) implementation
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Unlike EMA which theoretically considers all historical data (with diminishing influence), WMA has a finite memory, completely dropping prices that fall outside its lookback window. This creates a cleaner break from outdated market conditions. The O(1) optimization achieves 12-25x speedup over naive implementations while maintaining exact mathematical equivalence.
## Interpretation Details
WMA can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Trend identification:** The direction of WMA indicates the prevailing trend with greater responsiveness than SMA
* **Signal generation:** Crossovers between price and WMA generate trade signals earlier than with SMA
* **Support/resistance levels:** WMA can act as dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends
* **Moving average crossovers:** When a shorter-period WMA crosses above a longer-period WMA, it signals a potential uptrend (and vice versa)
* **Trend strength assessment:** Distance between price and WMA can indicate trend strength
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Market conditions:** Still suboptimal in highly volatile or sideways markets where enhanced responsiveness may generate false signals
* **Lag factor:** While less than SMA, still introduces some lag in signal generation
* **Abrupt window exit:** The oldest price suddenly drops out of calculation when leaving the window, potentially causing small jumps
* **Step changes:** Linear weighting creates discrete steps in influence rather than a smooth decay
* **Complementary tools:** Best used with volume indicators and momentum oscillators for confirmation
## References
* Colby, Robert W. "The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators." McGraw-Hill, 2002
* Murphy, John J. "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets." New York Institute of Finance, 1999
* Kaufman, Perry J. "Trading Systems and Methods." Wiley, 2013
RSI ROC Signals with Price Action# RSI ROC Signals with Price Action
## Overview
The RSI ROC (Rate of Change) Signals indicator is an advanced momentum-based trading system that combines RSI velocity analysis with price action confirmation to generate high-probability buy and sell signals. This indicator goes beyond traditional RSI analysis by measuring the speed of RSI changes and requiring price confirmation before triggering signals.
## Core Concept: RSI Rate of Change (ROC)
### What is RSI ROC?
RSI ROC measures the **velocity** or **acceleration** of the RSI indicator, providing insights into momentum shifts before they become apparent in traditional RSI readings.
**Formula**: `RSI ROC = ((Current RSI - Previous RSI) / Previous RSI) × 100`
### Why RSI ROC is Superior to Standard RSI:
1. **Early Momentum Detection**: Identifies momentum shifts before RSI reaches traditional overbought/oversold levels
2. **Velocity Analysis**: Measures the speed of momentum changes, not just absolute levels
3. **Reduced False Signals**: Filters out weak momentum moves that don't sustain
4. **Dynamic Thresholds**: Adapts to market volatility rather than using fixed RSI levels
5. **Leading Indicator**: Provides earlier signals compared to traditional RSI crossovers
## Signal Generation Logic
### 🟢 Buy Signal Process (3-Stage System):
#### Stage 1: Trigger Activation
- **RSI ROC** > threshold (default 7%) - RSI accelerating upward
- **Price ROC** > 0 - Price moving higher
- Records the **trigger high** (highest point during trigger)
#### Stage 2: Invalidation Check
- Signal invalidated if **RSI ROC** drops below negative threshold
- Prevents false signals during momentum reversals
#### Stage 3: Confirmation
- **Price breaks above trigger high** - Price action confirmation
- **Current candle is green** (close > open) - Bullish price action
- **State alternation** - Ensures no consecutive duplicate signals
### 🔴 Sell Signal Process (3-Stage System):
#### Stage 1: Trigger Activation
- **RSI ROC** < negative threshold (default -7%) - RSI accelerating downward
- **Price ROC** < 0 - Price moving lower
- Records the **trigger low** (lowest point during trigger)
#### Stage 2: Invalidation Check
- Signal invalidated if **RSI ROC** rises above positive threshold
- Prevents false signals during momentum reversals
#### Stage 3: Confirmation
- **Price breaks below trigger low** - Price action confirmation
- **Current candle is red** (close < open) - Bearish price action
- **State alternation** - Ensures no consecutive duplicate signals
## Key Features
### 🎯 **Smart Signal Management**
- **State Alternation**: Prevents signal clustering by alternating between buy/sell states
- **Trigger Invalidation**: Automatically cancels weak signals that lose momentum
- **Price Confirmation**: Requires actual price breakouts, not just momentum shifts
- **No Repainting**: Signals are confirmed and won't disappear or change
### ⚙️ **Customizable Parameters**
#### **RSI Length (Default: 14)**
- Standard RSI calculation period
- Shorter periods = more sensitive to price changes
- Longer periods = smoother, less noisy signals
#### **Lookback Period (Default: 1)**
- Period for ROC calculations
- 1 = compares to previous bar (most responsive)
- Higher values = smoother momentum detection
#### **RSI ROC Threshold (Default: 7%)**
- Minimum RSI velocity required for signal trigger
- Lower values = more signals, potentially more noise
- Higher values = fewer but higher-quality signals
### 📊 **Visual Signals**
- **Green Arrow Up**: Buy signal below price bar
- **Red Arrow Down**: Sell signal above price bar
- **Clean Chart**: No additional lines or oscillators cluttering the view
- **Size Options**: Customizable arrow sizes for visibility preferences
## Advantages Over Traditional Indicators
### vs. Standard RSI:
✅ **Earlier Signals**: Detects momentum changes before RSI reaches extremes
✅ **Dynamic Thresholds**: Adapts to market conditions vs. fixed 30/70 levels
✅ **Velocity Focus**: Measures momentum speed, not just position
✅ **Better Timing**: Combines momentum with price action confirmation
### vs. Moving Average Crossovers:
✅ **Leading vs. Lagging**: RSI ROC is forward-looking vs. backward-looking MAs
✅ **Volatility Adaptive**: Automatically adjusts to market volatility
✅ **Fewer Whipsaws**: Built-in invalidation logic reduces false signals
✅ **Momentum Focus**: Captures acceleration, not just direction changes
### vs. MACD:
✅ **Price-Normalized**: RSI ROC works consistently across different price ranges
✅ **Simpler Logic**: Clear trigger/confirmation process vs. complex crossovers
✅ **Built-in Filters**: Automatic signal quality control
✅ **State Management**: Prevents over-trading through alternation logic
## Trading Applications
### 📈 **Trend Following**
- Use in trending markets to catch momentum continuations
- Combine with trend filters for directional bias
- Excellent for breakout strategies
### 🔄 **Swing Trading**
- Ideal timeframes: 4H, Daily, Weekly
- Captures major momentum shifts
- Perfect for position entries/exits
### ⚡ **Scalping (Advanced Users)**
- Lower timeframes: 1m, 5m, 15m
- Reduce threshold for more frequent signals
- Combine with volume confirmation
### 🎯 **Momentum Strategies**
- Perfect for momentum-based trading systems
- Identifies acceleration phases in trends
- Complements breakout and continuation patterns
## Optimization Guidelines
### **Conservative Settings (Lower Risk)**
- RSI Length: 21
- ROC Threshold: 10%
- Lookback: 2
### **Standard Settings (Balanced)**
- RSI Length: 14 (default)
- ROC Threshold: 7% (default)
- Lookback: 1 (default)
### **Aggressive Settings (Higher Frequency)**
- RSI Length: 7
- ROC Threshold: 5%
- Lookback: 1
## Best Practices
### 🎯 **Entry Strategy**
1. Wait for signal arrow confirmation
2. Consider market context (trend, support/resistance)
3. Use proper position sizing based on volatility
4. Set stop-loss below/above trigger levels
### 🛡️ **Risk Management**
1. **Stop Loss**: Place beyond trigger high/low levels
2. **Position Sizing**: Use 1-2% risk per trade
3. **Market Context**: Avoid counter-trend signals in strong trends
4. **Time Filters**: Consider avoiding signals near major news events
### 📊 **Backtesting Recommendations**
1. Test on multiple timeframes and instruments
2. Analyze win rate vs. average win/loss ratio
3. Consider transaction costs in backtesting
4. Optimize threshold values for different market conditions
## Technical Specifications
- **Pine Script Version**: v6
- **Signal Type**: Non-repainting, confirmed signals
- **Calculation Basis**: RSI velocity with price action confirmation
- **Update Frequency**: Real-time on bar close
- **Memory Management**: Efficient state tracking with minimal resource usage
## Ideal For:
- **Momentum Traders**: Captures acceleration phases
- **Swing Traders**: Medium-term position entries/exits
- **Breakout Traders**: Confirms momentum behind breakouts
- **System Traders**: Mechanical signal generation with clear rules
This indicator represents a significant evolution in momentum analysis, combining the reliability of RSI with the precision of rate-of-change analysis and the confirmation of price action. It's designed for traders who want sophisticated momentum detection with built-in quality controls.
Varanormal Mac N Cheez Strategy v1Mac N Cheez Strategy (Set a $200 Take profit Manually)
It's super cheesy. Strategy does the following:
Here's a detailed explanation of what the entire script does, including its key components, functionality, and purpose.
1. Strategy Setup and Input Parameters:
Strategy Name: The script is named "NQ Futures $200/day Strategy" and is set as an overlay, meaning all elements (like moving averages and signals) are plotted on the price chart.
Input Parameters:
fastLength: This sets the length of the fast moving average. The user can adjust this value, and it defaults to 9.
slowLength: This sets the length of the slow moving average. The user can adjust this value, and it defaults to 21.
dailyTarget: The daily profit target, which defaults to $200. If set to 0, this disables the daily profit target.
stopLossAmount: The fixed stop-loss amount per trade, defaulting to $100. This value is used to calculate how much you're willing to lose on a single trade.
trailOffset: This value sets the distance for a trailing stop. It helps protect profits by automatically adjusting the stop-loss as the price moves in your favor.
2. Calculating the Moving Averages:
fastMA: The fast moving average is calculated using the ta.sma() function on the close price with a period length of fastLength. The ta.sma() function calculates the simple moving average.
slowMA: The slow moving average is also calculated using ta.sma() but with the slowLength period.
These moving averages are used to determine trend direction and identify entry points.
3. Buy and Sell Signal Conditions:
longCondition: This is the buy condition. It occurs when the fast moving average crosses above the slow moving average. The script uses ta.crossover() to detect this crossover event.
shortCondition: This is the sell condition. It occurs when the fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average. The script uses ta.crossunder() to detect this crossunder event.
4. Executing Buy and Sell Orders:
Buy Orders: When the longCondition is true (i.e., fast MA crosses above slow MA), the script enters a long position using strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long).
Sell Orders: When the shortCondition is true (i.e., fast MA crosses below slow MA), the script enters a short position using strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short).
5. Setting Stop Loss and Trailing Stop:
Stop-Loss for Long Positions: The stop-loss is calculated as the entry price minus the stopLossAmount. If the price falls below this level, the trade is exited automatically.
Stop-Loss for Short Positions: The stop-loss is calculated as the entry price plus the stopLossAmount. If the price rises above this level, the short trade is exited.
Trailing Stop: The trail_offset dynamically adjusts the stop-loss as the price moves in favor of the trade, locking in profits while still allowing room for market fluctuations.
6. Conditional Daily Profit Target:
The script includes a daily profit target that automatically closes all trades once the total profit for the day reaches or exceeds the dailyTarget.
Conditional Logic:
If the dailyTarget is greater than 0, the strategy checks whether the strategy.netprofit (total profit for the day) has reached or exceeded the target.
If the strategy.netprofit >= dailyTarget, the script calls strategy.close_all(), closing all open trades for the day and stopping further trading.
If dailyTarget is set to 0, this logic is skipped, and the script continues trading without a daily profit target.
7. Plotting Moving Averages:
plot(fastMA): This plots the fast moving average as a blue line on the price chart.
plot(slowMA): This plots the slow moving average as a red line on the price chart. These help visualize the crossover points and the trend direction on the chart.
8. Plotting Buy and Sell Signals:
plotshape(): The script uses plotshape() to add visual markers when buy or sell conditions are met:
"Long Signal": When a buy condition (longCondition) is met, a green marker is plotted below the price bar with the label "Long".
"Short Signal": When a sell condition (shortCondition) is met, a red marker is plotted above the price bar with the label "Short".
These markers help traders quickly see when buy or sell signals occurred on the chart.
In addition, triangle markers are plotted:
Green Triangle: Indicates where a buy entry occurred.
Red Triangle: Indicates where a sell entry occurred.
Summary of What the Script Does:
Inputs: The script allows the user to adjust moving average lengths, daily profit targets, stop-loss amounts, and trailing stop offsets.
Signals: It generates buy and sell signals based on the crossovers of the fast and slow moving averages.
Order Execution: It executes long positions on buy signals and short positions on sell signals.
Stop-Loss and Trailing Stop: It sets dynamic stop-losses and uses a trailing stop to protect profits.
Daily Profit Target: The strategy stops trading for the day once the net profit reaches the daily target (unless the target is disabled by setting it to 0).
Visual Markers: It plots moving averages and buy/sell signals directly on the main price chart to aid in visual analysis.
This script is designed to trade based on moving average crossovers, with robust risk management features like stop-loss and trailing stops, along with an optional daily profit target to limit daily trading activity. Let me know if you need further clarification or want to adjust any specific part of the script!
Normalized Volume Rate of ChangeThis indicator is designed to help traders gauge changes in volume dynamics and identify potential shifts in buying or selling pressure. By normalizing the volume rate of change and comparing it to moving averages of itself, it offers valuable insights into market trends and can assist in making informed trading decisions.
Calculation:
The indicator calculates the Volume Rate of Change (VROC) by measuring the percentage change in volume over a specified length. This calculation provides a relative measure of how quickly the volume is increasing or decreasing. It then normalizes the VROC to a range of -1 to +1 by scaling it based on the highest and lowest values observed within the specified length. This normalization allows for easy comparison of the current VROC value with historical levels, enabling traders to assess the intensity of volume fluctuations.
Interpretation:
The main plot of the indicator displays the normalized VROC values as columns. The color of each column provides valuable information about the relationship between the VROC and the moving averages. Lime-colored columns indicate that the VROC is above both moving averages, suggesting increased buying pressure and potential bullish sentiment. Conversely, fuchsia-colored columns indicate that the VROC is below both moving averages, suggesting increased selling pressure and potential bearish sentiment. Yellow-colored columns indicate that the VROC is between the two moving averages, reflecting a period of consolidation or indecision in the market.
To further enhance interpretation, the indicator includes two moving averages. The Aqua line represents the faster moving average (MA1), and the Orange line represents the slower moving average (MA2). These moving averages provide additional context by smoothing out the VROC values and highlighting the overall trend. Traders can observe the interaction between the moving averages and the VROC to identify potential crossovers and assess the strength of trend reversals or continuations.
Colors:
-- Lime : The lime color is used to represent high volume rate of change above both moving averages. This color indicates a potentially bullish market sentiment, suggesting that buyers are dominant.
-- Fuchsia : The fuchsia color is used to represent low volume rate of change below both moving averages. This color indicates a potentially bearish market sentiment, suggesting that sellers are dominant.
-- Yellow : The yellow color is used to represent the volume rate of change between the two moving averages. This color reflects a transitional phase where neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage, signaling a period of consolidation or indecision in the market.
To provide additional visual cues for potential trade signals, the indicator includes lime-colored arrows below the price chart when there is a crossover upwards (MA1 crossing above MA2). This lime arrow indicates a potential bullish signal, suggesting a favorable time to consider long positions. Similarly, fuchsia-colored arrows are displayed above the price chart when there is a crossover downwards (MA1 crossing below MA2), signaling a potential bearish signal and suggesting a favorable time to consider short positions.
Applications:
This indicator offers various applications in trading strategies, including:
-- Trend Identification : By observing the relationship between the normalized VROC and the moving averages, traders can identify potential shifts in market trends. Lime-colored columns above both moving averages indicate a strong bullish trend, suggesting an opportunity to capitalize on upward price movements. Conversely, fuchsia-colored columns below both moving averages indicate a strong bearish trend, suggesting an opportunity to profit from downward price movements. Yellow-colored columns between the moving averages indicate a period of consolidation or uncertainty, signaling a potential trend reversal or continuation.
-- Confirmation of Price Moves : The indicator's ability to reflect volume dynamics in relation to the moving averages can help traders validate price moves. When significant price movements are accompanied by lime-colored columns (indicating high volume rate of change above both moving averages), it adds confirmation to the bullish sentiment. Similarly, fuchsia-colored columns accompanying downward price movements validate the bearish sentiment. This confirmation can enhance traders' confidence in the reliability of price moves.
-- Trade Timing : The indicator's moving average crossovers and the presence of arrows provide timing signals for trade entries and exits. Lime arrows appearing below the price chart signal potential long entry opportunities, indicating a bullish market sentiment. Conversely, fuchsia arrows appearing above the price chart suggest potential short entry opportunities, indicating a bearish market sentiment. These signals can be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to improve trade timing and increase the probability of successful trades.
Parameter Adjustments:
Traders can adjust the length of the VROC and the moving averages according to their trading preferences and timeframes. Longer VROC lengths provide a broader view of volume dynamics over an extended period, making it suitable for assessing long-term trends. Shorter VROC lengths offer a more sensitive measure of recent volume changes, making it suitable for shorter-term analysis. Similarly, adjusting the lengths of the moving averages can help adapt the indicator to different market conditions and trading styles.
Limitations:
While the indicator provides valuable insights, it has some limitations that traders should be aware of:
-- False Signals : Like any technical indicator, false signals can occur. During periods of low liquidity or in choppy markets, the indicator may generate misleading signals. It is essential to consider other indicators, price action, and fundamental analysis to confirm the signals before taking any trading actions.
-- Lagging Nature : Moving averages inherently lag behind the price action and volume changes. As a result, there may be a delay in the generation of signals and capturing trend reversals. Traders should exercise patience and avoid solely relying on this indicator for immediate trade decisions. Combining it with other indicators and tools can provide a more comprehensive picture of market conditions.
In conclusion, this indicator offers valuable insights into volume dynamics and trend analysis. By comparing the normalized VROC with moving averages, traders can identify shifts in buying or selling pressure, validate price moves, and improve trade timing. However, it is important to consider its limitations and use it in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to form a well-rounded trading strategy. Additionally, thorough testing, experimentation, and customization of the indicator's parameters are recommended to align it with individual trading preferences and market conditions.
Weight Gain 4000 - (Adjustable Volume Weighted MA) - [mutantdog]Short Version:
This is a fairly self-contained system based upon a moving average crossover with several unique features. The most significant of these is the adjustable volume weighting system, allowing for transformations between standard and weighted versions of each included MA. With this feature it is possible to apply partial weighting which can help to improve responsiveness without dramatically altering shape. Included types are SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, hSMA, DEMA and TEMA. Potentially more will be added in future (check updates below).
In addition there are a selection of alternative 'weighted' inputs, a pair of Bollinger-style deviation bands, a separate price tracker and a bunch of alert presets.
This can be used out-of-the-box or tweaked in multiple ways for unusual results. Default settings are a basic 8/21 EMA cross with partial volume weighting. Dev bands apply to MA2 and are based upon the type and the volume weighting. For standard Bollinger bands use SMA with length 20 and try adding a small amount of volume weighting.
A more detailed breakdown of the functionality follows.
Long Version:
ADJUSTABLE VOLUME WEIGHTING
In principle any moving average should have a volume weighted analogue, the standard VWMA is just an SMA with volume weighting for example. Actually, we can consider the SMA to be a special case where volume is a constant 1 per bar (the value is somewhat arbitrary, the important part is that it's constant). Similar principles apply to the 'elastic' EVWMA which is the volume weighted analogue of an RMA. In any case though, where we have standard and weighted variants it is possible to transform one into the other by gradually increasing or decreasing the weighting, which forms the basis of this system. This is not just a simple multiplier however, that would not work due to the relative proportions being the same when set at any non zero value. In order to create a meaningful transformation we need to use an exponent instead, eg: volume^x , where x is a variable determined in this case by the 'volume' parameter. When x=1, the full volume weighting applies and when x=0, the volume will be reduced to a constant 1. Values in between will result in the respective partial weighting, for example 0.5 will give the square root of the volume.
The obvious question here though is why would you want to do this? To answer that really it is best to actually try it. The advantages that volume weighting can bring to a moving average can sometimes come at the cost of unwanted or erratic behaviour. While it can tend towards much closer price tracking which may be desirable, sometimes it needs moderating especially in markets with lower liquidity. Here the adjustability can be useful, in many cases i have found that adding a small amount of volume weighting to a chosen MA can help to improve its responsiveness without overpowering it. Another possible use case would be to have two instances of the same MA with the same length but different weightings, the extent to which these diverge from each other can be a useful indicator of trend strength. Other uses will become apparent with experimentation and can vary from one market to another.
THE INCLUDED MODES
At the time of publication, there are 7 included moving average types with plans to add more in future. For now here is a brief explainer of what's on offer (continuing to use x as shorthand for the volume parameter), starting with the two most common types.
SMA: As mentioned above this is essentially a standard VWMA, calculated here as sma(source*volume^x,length)/sma(volume^x,length). In this case when x=0 then volume=1 and it reduces to a standard SMA.
RMA: Again mentioned above, this is an EVWMA (where E stands for elastic) with constant weighting. Without going into detail, this method takes the 1/length factor of an RMA and replaces it with volume^x/sum(volume^x,length). In this case again we can see that when x=0 then volume=1 and the original 1/length factor is restored.
EMA: This follows the same principle as the RMA where the standard 2/(length+1) factor is replaced with (2*volume^x)/(sum(volume^x,length)+volume^x). As with an RMA, when x=0 then volume=1 and this reduces back to the standard 2/(length+1).
DEMA: Just a standard Double EMA using the above.
TEMA: Likewise, a standard Triple EMA using the above.
hSMA: This is the same as the SMA except it uses harmonic mean calculations instead of arithmetic. In most cases the differences are negligible however they can become more pronounced when volume weighting is introduced. Furthermore, an argument can be made that harmonic mean calculations are better suited to downtrends or bear markets, in principle at least.
WMA: Probably the most contentious one included. Follows the same basic calculations as for the SMA except uses a WMA instead. Honestly, it makes little sense to combine both linear and volume weighting in this manner, included only for completeness and because it can easily be done. It may be the case that a superior composite could be created with some more complex calculations, in which case i may add that later. For now though this will do.
An additional 'volume filter' option is included, which applies a basic filter to the volume prior to calculation. For types based around the SMA/VWMA system, the volume filter is a WMA-4, for types based around the RMA/EVWMA system the filter is a RMA-2.
As and when i add more they will be listed in the updates at the bottom.
WEIGHTED INPUTS
The ohlc method of source calculations is really a leftover from a time when data was far more limited. Nevertheless it is still the method used in charting and for the most part is sufficient. Often the only important value is 'close' although sometimes 'high' and 'low' can be relevant also. Since we are volume weighting however, it can be useful to incorporate as much information as possible. To that end either 'hlc3' or 'hlcc4' tend to be the best of the defaults (in the case of 24/7 charting like crypto or intraday trading, 'ohlc4' should be avoided as it is effectively the same as a lagging version of 'hlcc4'). There are many other (infinitely many, in fact) possible combinations that can be created, i have included a few here.
The premise is fairly straightforward, by subtracting one value from another, the remaining difference can act as a kind of weight. In a simple case consider 'hl2' as simply the midrange ((high+low)/2), instead of this using 'high+low-open' would give more weight to the value furthest from the open, providing a good estimate of the median. An even better estimate can be achieved by combining that with 'high+low-close' to give the included result 'hl-oc2'. Similarly, 'hlc3' can be considered the basic mean of the three significant values, an included weighted version 'hlc2-o2' combines a sum with subtraction of open to give an estimated mean that may be more accurate. Finally we can apply a similar principle to the close, by subtracting the other values, this one potentially gets more complex so the included 'cc-ohlc4' is really the simplest. The result here is an overbias of the close in relation to the open and the midrange, while in most cases not as useful it can provide an estimate for the next bar assuming that the trend continues.
Of the three i've included, hlc2-o2 is in my opinion the most useful especially in this context, although it is perhaps best considered to be experimental in nature. For that reason, i've kept 'hlcc4' as the default for both MAs.
Additionally included is an 'aux input' which is the standard TV source menu and, where possible, can be set as outputs of other indicators.
THE SYSTEM
This one is fairly obvious and straightforward. It's just a moving average crossover with additional deviation (bollinger) bands. Not a lot to explain here as it should be apparent how it works.
Of the two, MA1 is considered to be the fast and MA2 is considered to be the slow. Both can be set with independent inputs, types and weighting. When MA1 is above, the colour of both is green and when it's below the colour of both is red. An additional gradient based fill is there and can be adjusted along with everything else in the visuals section at the bottom. Default alerts are available for crossover/crossunder conditions along with optional marker plots.
MA2 has the option for deviation bands, these are calculated based upon the MA type used and volume weighted according to the main parameter. In the case of a unweighted SMA being used they will be standard Bollinger bands.
An additional 'source direct' price tracker is included which can be used as the basis for an alert system for price crossings of bands or MAs, while taking advantage of the available weighted inputs. This is displayed as a stepped line on the chart so is also a good way to visualise the differences between input types.
That just about covers it then. The likelihood is that you've used some sort of moving average cross system before and are probably still using one or more. If so, then perhaps the additional functionality here will be of benefit.
Thanks for looking, I welcome any feedack
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Win-Loss Streak PlotterWin-Loss Streak Plotter
This indicator tracks the win/loss streaks of moving average crossovers (using simple moving averages for illustration purposes). It calculates the price change after each crossover, marking each as a win (green) or loss (red). The win rate is shown separately.
Inputs:
Source: Price series (default: open)
Fast MA: Fast moving average (default: open)
Slow MA: Slow moving average (default: open)
Total Crosses to Analyze: Number of crossovers to track
Crosses per Row: Number of crossovers per row in the table
Output:
A table displays each crossover’s result (win/loss).
A separate win rate table shows the percentage of wins.
Suggestions are always welcomed!
Amplitude [Anan]The Amplitude indicator calculates and visualizes both the amplitude and cumulative amplitude of price movements, providing traders with insights into price volatility and trend strength. By distinguishing between positive and negative amplitude movements, this indicator aids in identifying bullish and bearish sentiments, potential reversal points, and confirming trend directions.
█ Main Formulas
‣ Amplitude = High - Low
‣ Cumulative Amplitude = sum of Amplitude over the specified lookback period
‣ Percentage Amplitude = (Amplitude / Open) × 100%
High: Candle high (or highest high when lookback > 1)
Low: Candle low (or lowest low when lookback > 1)
Open: Open price of the first candle in the lookback period
█ Key Features
✦Dual Amplitude Calculations:
Amplitude: Reflects price range and direction over a short-term period.
Cumulative Amplitude: Aggregates amplitude over a longer period for broader trend analysis.
✦Customizable Parameters: Adjust lookback periods, smoothing options, moving averages and Alerts.
✦Direction Separation: Distinguish between positive and negative amplitude movements to identify market sentiment.
✦Flexible Visualization: Customizable colors and plot styles for enhanced chart readability.
✦Alert System: Generate signals based on amplitude direction and moving average crossovers
█ How to Use and Interpret
✦Understanding Amplitude and Cumulative Amplitude:
‣Amplitude: Measures the price range (high - low) over a specified short-term period.
‣Cumulative Amplitude: Aggregates amplitude over a defined longer-term period.
‣Percentage Representation: shows amplitude relative to the open price from `amp_length` bars ago, providing a normalized view.
‣Interpretation:
Large Amplitude Values: Indicate high volatility.
Small Amplitude Values: Indicate low volatility.
✦Trend Identification:
‣Uptrend: Consistently positive amplitudes and upward-moving averages.
‣Downtrend: Consistently negative amplitudes and downward-moving averages.
✦Overbought/Oversold Conditions:
‣High Positive Amplitude: May indicate overbought conditions and potential reversals.
‣High Negative Amplitude: May indicate oversold conditions and potential reversals.
✦Volatility Analysis:
‣High Amplitude Values: Suggest increased market volatility.
‣Low Amplitude Values: Suggest reduced market volatility.
✦Signal Confirmation:
‣Moving Average Crossovers: Confirm the strength and direction of trends, aiding in informed trading decisions.
✦Trading Strategies:
‣ Breakout Trading: Large increases in amplitude can signal potential breakouts.
‣ Mean Reversion: Extreme amplitude values may indicate upcoming price corrections.
‣ Volatility-Based Strategies: Adjust position sizes or trading frequency based on amplitude magnitudes.
‣ Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Compare amplitudes across different timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
█ Customization Tips
‣ Lookback Periods: Experiment with different periods to suit your trading style and asset characteristics.
‣ Smoothing Settings: Adjust to balance responsiveness and noise reduction.
‣ Percentage Amplitude: Use for normalized comparisons across different price levels.
Major and Minor Trend Indicator by Nikhil34a V 2.2Title: Major and Minor Trend Indicator by Nikhil34a V 2.2
Description:
The Major and Minor Trend Indicator v2.2 is a comprehensive technical analysis script designed for use with the TradingView platform. This powerful tool is developed in Pine Script version 5 and helps traders identify potential buying and selling opportunities in the stock market.
Features:
SMA Trend Analysis: The script calculates two Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) with user-defined lengths for major and minor trends. It displays these SMAs on the chart, allowing traders to visualize the prevailing trends easily.
Surge Detection: The indicator can detect buying and selling surges based on specific conditions, such as volume, RSI, MACD, and stochastic indicators. Both Buying and Selling surges are marked in black on the chart.
Option Buy Zone Detection: The script identifies the option buy zone based on SMA crossovers, RSI, and MACD values. The buy zone is categorized as "CE Zone" or "PE Zone" and displayed in the table along with the trigger time.
Two-Day High and Low Range: The script calculates the highest high and lowest low of the previous two trading days and plots them on the chart. The area between these points is shaded in semi-transparent green and red colors.
Crossover Analysis: The script analyzes moving average crossovers on multiple timeframes (2-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute) and displays buy and sell signals accordingly.
Trend Identification: The script identifies the major and minor trends as either bullish or bearish, providing valuable insights into the overall market sentiment.
Usage:
Customize Major and Minor SMA Periods: Adjust the lengths of major and minor SMAs through input parameters to suit your trading preferences.
Enable/Disable Moving Averages: Choose which SMAs to display on the chart by toggling the "showXMA" input options.
Set Surge and Option Buy Zone Thresholds: Modify the surgeThreshold, volumeThreshold, RSIThreshold, and StochThreshold inputs to refine the surge and buy zone detection.
Analyze Crossover Signals: Monitor the crossover signals in the table, categorized by timeframes (2-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute).
Explore Market Bias and Distance to 2-Day High/Low: The table provides information on market bias, current price movement relative to the previous two-day high and low, and the option buy zone status.
Additional Use Cases:
Surge Indicator:
The script includes a Surge Indicator that detects sudden buying or selling surges in the market. When a buying surge is identified, the "BSurge" label will appear below the corresponding candle with black text on a white background. Similarly, a selling surge will display the "SSurge" label in white text on a black background. These indicators help traders quickly spot strong buying or selling activities that may influence their trading decisions. These surges can be used to identify sudden premium dump zones.
Option Buy Zone:
The Option Buy Zone is an essential feature that identifies potential zones for buying call options (CE Zone) or put options (PE Zone) based on specific technical conditions. The indicator evaluates SMA crossovers, RSI, and MACD values to determine the current market sentiment. When the option buy zone is triggered, the script will display the respective zone ("CE Zone" or "PE Zone") in the table, highlighted with a white background. Additionally, the time when the buy zone was triggered will be shown under the "Option Buy Zone Trigger Time" column.
Price Movement Relative to 2-Day High/Low:
The script calculates the highest high and lowest low of the previous two trading days (high2DaysAgo and low2DaysAgo) and plots these points on the chart. The area between these two points is shaded in semi-transparent green and red colors. The green region indicates the price range between the highpricetoconsider (highest high of the previous two days) and the lower value between highPreviousDay and high2DaysAgo. Similarly, the red region represents the price range between the lowpricetoconsider (lowest low of the previous two days) and the higher value between lowPreviousDay and low2DaysAgo.
Entry Time and Current Zone:
The script identifies potential entry times for trades within the option buy zone. When a valid buy zone trigger occurs, the script calculates the entryTime by adding the durationInMinutes (user-defined) to the startTime. The entryTime will be displayed in the "Entry Time" column of the table. Depending on the comparison between optionbuyzonetriggertime and entryTime, the background color of the entry time will change. If optionbuyzonetriggertime is greater than entryTime, the background color will be yellow, indicating that a new trigger has occurred before the specified duration. Otherwise, the background color will be green, suggesting that the entry time is still within the defined duration.
Current Zone Indicator:
The script further categorizes the current zone as either "CE Zone" (call option zone) or "PE Zone" (put option zone). When the market is trending upwards and the minor SMA is above the major SMA, the currentZone will be set to "CE Zone." Conversely, when the market is trending downwards and the minor SMA is below the major SMA, the currentZone will be "PE Zone." This information is displayed in the "Current Zone" column of the table.
These additional use cases empower traders with valuable insights into market trends, buying and selling surges, option buy zones, and potential entry times. Traders can combine this information with their analysis and risk management strategies to make informed and confident trading decisions.
Note:
The script is optimized for identifying trends and potential trade opportunities. It is crucial to perform additional analysis and risk management before executing any trades based on the provided signals.
Happy Trading!
Uhl MA Crossover SystemToday proposed indicator is based on the corrected moving average, an indicator originally proposed by Andreas Uhl professor at Salzburg University. This moving average is not the most well known, which is a pity since its design is extremely elegant.
The corrected moving average (CMA) is an adaptive moving average based on exponential averaging and aim to correct common problems of classical moving averages such as crosses occurring during sideway markets, more details will be introduced in the calculation section. The CMA aim to act as a slow moving average in a moving average crossover system.
Here a new fast adaptive moving average named corrected trend step (CTS) based on the CMA is introduced in order to provide a full moving average crossover system based on A. Uhl design.
To Andreas Uhl
Calculation And Understanding The CTS
Even if the code is quite compact, the original idea behind the CMA can be blurry for some users, however it is actually relatively simple to understand. The CMA is based on exponential averaging and a smoothing variable is therefore required, in the CMA the calculation of the smoothing variable is based on the squared distance between the precedent CMA output and a simple moving average, and the rolling variance, where the rolling variance act as threshold.
The CTS work the same way but instead of using the squared error between a simple moving average and the previous CMA output, we use the squared error between the closing price and the previous CTS output, this allow the CTS to better fit with the closing price. As said before the rolling variance act as threshold, if the squared error is lower than the rolling variance this mean that the CTS is close to the price, which can indicate a sideway market, therefore we should filter the entirety of the current price, therefore on sideways market the CTS is equal to the precedent value of the CTS.
In trending/volatile markets we expect the price to go away from the CTS, thus having an high squared error, if the squared error is greater than the rolling variance, the smoothing variable is equal to 1 - variance/squared error , here variance/squared error < 1 since the squared error is greater than the rolling variance ( remember that the smoothing variable need to be in a (0,1) range ), however if the squared error is way higher than variance this ratio will be small, which would return a non reactive output, but thats not what we want ! This is why we subtract 1 by this ratio in order to make the CTS more reactive instead of less reactive.
In case the squared error is greater than the rolling variance during sideway markets we would not expect a huge difference anyway, that is squared error ≈ variance and therefore:
1 - variance/squared error ≈ 1 - 1/1 ≈ 1 - 1 ≈ 0
This is a beautiful way to make an adaptive moving average, the CMA is not a flashy indicator, but when we look at the details behind the design we can only get amazed, or maybe that its just me, truly a great adaptive moving average.
The System
length control the filtering amount of both moving averages, with higher values of length returning larger filtering amount. Mult multiply the rolling variance by an user selected value, this also allow a greater amount of filtering.
The CTS act as a fast moving average while the CMA act as a slow moving average.
Here the indicator with length = 200, we can see how a sideway market who could have generated a large amount of signals don't affect our system.
Unlike classical crossovers systems where the slow moving average will rarely produce a cross with the fast moving average and price at the same time, the Uhl system can actually do that:
Conclusion
A moving average crossover system based on the corrected moving average proposed by Andreas Uhl has been presented, a new moving average that aim to produce good fits with the price has been created especially for this system. The logic behind the CMA has also been explained. A possible strategy analysis could be presented in the future.
In conclusion i would say the CMA is a bit underrated, in a field where arrows, signals, alerts are the only things appreciated by peoples, original content is slowly dying, this actually make today technical indicators have a pretty bad academic reputations. I'am afraid that today haiku master is Uhl rather than me, i hope to see more indicators from him in the future.
Thanks for reading !
Original paper: www.buero-uhl.de
Krown Moving Averages & Crossover LevelsIntroducing Krown Moving Averages with Crossover levels.
This indicator
Plots 5 Ema's and 3 SMA's ( Default Krown Periods )
It calculates the price levels at which each pair of moving averages would be equal .
That means that if price closes the other side of that level the pair of moving will cross also.
These levels can therefore be considered as " crossover levels....( the price level where each pair of moving averages will cross)
It can give crossover levels for
SMA crossing SMA
EMA crossing EMA
EMA crossing SMA
Plots optional Labels for all crossover levels....(off by default needs to be turned on in the settings)
Plots optional crossover levels as lines and dots colored as the 2 colors of the pair of moving averages.....(off by default needs to be turned on in the settings)
This indicator is aimed at traders who use simple and exponential moving average crossovers as part of their trading plan or edge.
It takes the guesswork out of knowing at what price level a pair of moving averages will cross which helps to improve entries and risk management.
There is an optional "Cutoff" function and user adjustable "limit factor" which cuts the plots off once they are too far below or above the current price to prevent chart auto focus issues.
There is a decimal place truncation option to set the decimal places depending on the asset type and price accuracy required.
Inspired by a request from a community member after one of my recent reverse engineered indicator publications.
I am publishing this open source in the hopes that some newer coders will find the functions interesting and useful.
Auto Intelligence Selective Moving Average(AI/MA)# 🤖 Auto Intelligence Moving Average Strategy (AI/MA)
**AI/MA** is a state-adaptive moving average crossover strategy designed to **maximize returns from golden cross / death cross logic** by intelligently switching between different MA types and parameters based on market conditions.
---
## 🎯 Objective
To build a moving average crossover strategy that:
- **Adapts dynamically** to market regimes (trend vs range, rising vs falling)
- **Switches intelligently** between SMA, EMA, RMA, and HMA
- **Maximizes cumulative return** under realistic backtesting
---
## 🧪 materials amd methods
- **MA Types Considered**: SMA, EMA, RMA, HMA
- **Parameter Ranges**: Periods from 5 to 40
- **Market Conditions Classification**:
- Based on the slope of a central SMA(20) line
- And the relative position of price to the central line
- Resulting in 4 regimes: A (Bull), B (Pullback), C (Rebound), D (Bear)
- **Optimization Dataset**:
- **Bybit BTCUSDT.P**
- **1-hour candles**
- **2024 full-year**
- **Search Process**:
- **Random search**: 200 parameter combinations
- Evaluated by:
- `Cumulative PnL`
- `Sharpe Ratio`
- `Max Drawdown`
- `R² of linear regression on cumulative PnL`
- **Implementation**:
- Optimization performed in **Python (Pandas + Matplotlib + Optuna-like logic)**
- Final parameters ported to **Pine Script (v5)** for TradingView backtesting
---
## 📈 Performance Highlights (on optimization set)
| Timeframe | Return (%) | Notes |
|-----------|------------|----------------------------|
| 6H | +1731% | Strongest performance |
| 1D | +1691% | Excellent trend capture |
| 12H | +1438% | Balance of trend/range |
| 5min | +27.3% | Even survives scalping |
| 1min | +9.34% | Robust against noise |
- Leverage: 100x
- Position size: 100%
- Fees: 0.055%
- Margin calls: **none** 🎯
---
## 🛠 Technology Stack
- `Python` for data handling and optimization
- `Pine Script v5` for implementation and visualization
- Fully state-aware strategy, modular and extendable
---
## ✨ Final Words
This strategy is **not curve-fitted**, **not over-parameterized**, and has been validated across multiple timeframes. If you're a fan of dynamic, intelligent technical systems, feel free to use and expand it.
💡 The future of simple-yet-smart trading begins here.
MA Cross MTF Alert (Miu)This script extends the classic moving average crossover strategy with support for up to 8 user-defined symbols across 4 custom timeframes, combined with a visual and alert system designed for traders who monitor multiple assets simultaneously.
Unlike traditional MA crossover tools, this script enables traders to receive real-time alerts for crossovers across multiple assets and timeframes, even when the script is not actively displayed on the chart — ideal for passive monitoring in multi-asset strategies.
What it does:
This script calculates two customizable moving averages (SMA or EMA) for each selected symbol and timeframe.
It then tracks crossover events:
- Bullish crossover when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA
- Bearish crossunder when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA
On the chart, it also displays the crossover signals for the current symbol and timeframe using color-coded cross icons.
Key features:
- Select SMA or EMA type for both moving averages
- Customize MA lengths and colors
- Works with any asset and timeframe
- Alerts include symbol and timeframe info for easy identification
How to use:
1) Add the indicator to your chart.
2) Choose the moving average type and lengths.
3) Enable/disable any of the 8 symbols and 4 timeframes.
4) Set up TradingView alerts by clicking “Create Alert” and selecting one of the alert() calls.
5) You will receive a message like:
BTC (1h) | MA Crossover ▲ or ETH (15m) | MA Crossunder ▼
Technical note:
This script uses request.security() to retrieve moving average values from up to 8 different symbols and 4 different timeframes in real time.
Feel free to leave your feedback or suggestions in the comments section below.
Enjoy!
(DAFE) DEVMA - Crossover (Deviation Moving Average) (DAFE) DEVMA - Crossover (Deviation Moving Average)
Let’s keep pushing the edge. After the breakthrough of Deviation over Deviation (DoD)—which gave traders a true lens into volatility’s hidden regime shifts—many asked: “What’s next?” The answer is DEVMA: a crossover engine built not on price, but on the heartbeat of the market itself.
Why is this different?
DEVMA isn’t just a moving average crossover. It’s a regime detector that tracks the expansion and contraction of deviation—giving you a real-time readout of when the market’s energy is about to shift. This is the next step for anyone who wants to anticipate volatility, not just react to it.
What sets DEVMA apart:
Volatility-First Logic:Both fast and slow lines are moving averages of deviation, not price. You’re tracking the market’s “energy,” not just its direction. This is the quant edge that most scripts miss.
Regime-Colored Lines:
The fast and slow DEVMA lines change color in real time—green/aqua for expansion, maroon/orange for contraction—so you can see regime shifts at a glance.
Quant-Pro Visuals:
Subtle glow, clean cross markers, and a minimalist dashboard keep your focus on what matters: the regime, not the noise.
Static Regime Thresholds:
Reference lines at 1.5 and 0.5 (custom colors) give you instant context for “normal” vs. “extreme” volatility states.
No Price Chasing:
This isn’t about following price. It’s about anticipating the next volatility regime—before the crowd even knows what’s coming.
How this builds on DoD:
DoD showed you when volatility itself was about to change. DEVMA takes that insight and turns it into a crossover engine—so you can see, filter, and act on regime shifts in real time. If DoD was the radar, DEVMA is the navigation system.
Inputs/Signals—explained for clarity:
Deviation Lookback:
Controls the sensitivity of the regime detector. Shorter = more signals, longer = only the rarest events.
Fast/Slow DEVMA Lengths:
Fine-tune how quickly the regime lines react. Fast for scalping, slow for swing trading.
Source Selection:
Choose from price, volume, volatility, or VoVix. Each source gives you a different lens on market stress. VoVix is for those who want to see the “regime quake” before the aftershocks.
VoVix Parameters:
Fine-tune the volatility-of-volatility engine for your market. Lower ATR Fast = more responsive; higher ATR Slow = more selective.
Bottom line:
DEVMA is for those who want to see the market’s heartbeat, not just its shadow. Use it to filter your trades, time your entries, or simply understand the market’s true rhythm. Every input is there for a reason. Every plot is a direct readout of the quant logic. Use with discipline, and make it your own.
Disclaimer:
Trading is risky. This script is for research and informational purposes only, not financial advice. Backtest, paper trade, and know your risk before going live. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
*Updated the Dashboard/Metrics Display for better visibility
Use with discipline. Trade your edge.
— Dskyz, for DAFE Trading Systems
Multi SMA EMA VWAP1. Moving Average Crossover
This is one of the most common strategies with moving averages, and it involves observing crossovers between EMAs and SMAs to determine buy or sell signals.
Buy signal: When a faster EMA (like a short-term EMA) crosses above a slower SMA, it can indicate a potential upward movement.
Sell signal: When a faster EMA crosses below a slower SMA, it can indicate a potential downward movement.
With 4 EMAs and 5 SMAs, you can set up crossovers between different combinations, such as:
EMA(9) crosses above SMA(50) → buy.
EMA(9) crosses below SMA(50) → sell.
2. Divergence Confirmation Between EMAs and SMAs
Divergence between the EMAs and SMAs can offer additional confirmation. If the EMAs are pointing in one direction and the SMAs are still in the opposite direction, it is a sign that the movement could be stronger and continue in the same direction.
Positive divergence: If the EMAs are making new highs while the SMAs are still below, it could be a sign that the market is in a strong trend.
Negative divergence: If the EMAs are making new lows and the SMAs are still above, you might consider that the market is in a downtrend or correction.
3. Using EMAs as Dynamic Support and Resistance
EMAs can act as dynamic support and resistance in strong trends. If the price approaches a faster EMA from above and doesn’t break it, it could be a good entry point for a long position (buy). If the price approaches a slower EMA from below and doesn't break it, it could be a good point to sell (short).
Buy: If the price is above all EMAs and approaches the fastest EMA (e.g., EMA(9)), it could be a good buy point if the price bounces upward.
Sell: If the price is below all EMAs and approaches the fastest EMA, it could be a good sell point if the price bounces downward.
4. Combining SMAs and EMAs to Filter Signals
SMAs can serve as a trend filter to avoid trading in sideways markets. For example:
Bullish trend condition: If the longer-term SMAs (such as SMA(100) or SMA(200)) are below the price, and the shorter EMAs are aligned upward, you can look for buy signals.
Bearish trend condition: If the longer-term SMAs are above the price and the shorter EMAs are aligned downward, you can look for sell signals.
5. Consolidation Zone Between EMAs and SMAs
When the price moves between EMAs and SMAs without a clear trend (consolidation zone), you can expect a breakout. In this case, you can use the EMAs and SMAs to identify the direction of the breakout:
If the price is in a narrow range between the EMAs and SMAs and then breaks above the fastest EMA, it’s a sign that an upward trend may begin.
If the price breaks below the fastest EMA, it could indicate a potential downward trend.
6. "Golden Cross" and "Death Cross" Strategy
These are classic strategies based on crossovers between moving averages of different periods.
Golden Cross: Occurs when a faster EMA (e.g., EMA(50)) crosses above a slower SMA (e.g., SMA(200)), which suggests a potential bullish trend.
Death Cross: Occurs when a faster EMA crosses below a slower SMA, which suggests a potential bearish trend.
Additional Recommendations:
Combining with other indicators: You can combine EMA and SMA signals with other indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) or MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) for confirmation and to avoid false signals.
Risk management: Always use stop-loss and take-profit orders to protect your capital. Moving averages are trend-following indicators but don’t guarantee that the price will move in the same direction.
Timeframe analysis: It’s recommended to use different timeframes to confirm the trend (e.g., use EMAs on hourly charts along with SMAs on daily charts).
VWAP
1. VWAP + EMAs for Trend Confirmation
VWAP can act as a trend filter, confirming the direction provided by the EMAs.
Buy Signal: If the price is above the VWAP and the EMAs are aligned in an uptrend (e.g., short-term EMAs are above longer-term EMAs), this indicates that the trend is bullish and you can look for buy opportunities.
Sell Signal: If the price is below the VWAP and the EMAs are aligned in a downtrend (e.g., short-term EMAs are below longer-term EMAs), this suggests a bearish trend and you can look for sell opportunities.
In this case, VWAP is used to confirm the overall trend. For example:
Bullish: Price above VWAP, EMAs aligned to the upside (e.g., EMA(9) > EMA(50) > EMA(200)), buy.
Bearish: Price below VWAP, EMAs aligned to the downside (e.g., EMA(9) < EMA(50) < EMA(200)), sell.
2. VWAP as Dynamic Support and Resistance
VWAP can act as a dynamic support or resistance level during the day. Combining this with EMAs and SMAs helps you refine your entry and exit points.
Support: If the price is above VWAP and starts pulling back to VWAP, it could act as support. If the price bounces off the VWAP and aligns with bullish EMAs (e.g., EMA(9) crossing above EMA(50)), you can consider entering a buy position.
Resistance: If the price is below VWAP and approaches VWAP from below, it can act as resistance. If the price fails to break through VWAP and aligns with bearish EMAs (e.g., EMA(9) crossing below EMA(50)), it could be a good signal for a sell.
Jobinsabu014This Pine Script code is for an advanced trading indicator that displays enhanced moving averages with buy and sell labels, trend probability, and support/resistance levels. Here’s a detailed description of its components and functionality:
### Description:
1. **Indicator Initialization**:
- The indicator is named "Enhanced Moving Averages with Buy/Sell Labels and Trend Probability" and is set to overlay on the chart.
2. **Input Parameters**:
- **Moving Averages**: Four different moving averages (short and long periods for default and enhanced) with customizable periods.
- **Probability Threshold**: Determines the threshold for trend probability.
- **Support/Resistance Lookback**: Number of bars to look back for calculating support and resistance levels.
- **Signals Valid From**: Timestamp from which the signals are considered valid.
3. **Moving Averages Calculation**:
- **Default Moving Averages**: Calculated using simple moving averages (SMA) for the specified periods.
- **Enhanced Moving Averages**: Calculated using SMAs for different specified periods.
4. **Plotting Moving Averages**:
- Plots the default and enhanced moving averages with different colors for distinction.
5. **Crossover Detection**:
- Detects when the short moving average crosses above or below the long moving average for default moving averages.
6. **Buy/Sell Signal Labels**:
- Adds "BUY" and "SELL" labels on the chart when crossovers are detected after the specified valid timestamp.
- Tracks entry prices for buy/sell signals and adds labels when the price moves +100 points.
7. **Trend Detection for Enhanced Indicator**:
- Detects uptrend or downtrend based on the enhanced moving averages.
- Calculates a simple probability of trend based on price movement and EMA.
- Determines buy and sell signals based on trend conditions and volume-based buy/sell pressure.
8. **Plot Buy/Sell Signals for Enhanced Indicator**:
- Plots buy/sell signals based on the enhanced conditions.
9. **Background Color for Trends**:
- Changes the background color to green for uptrend and red for downtrend.
10. **Trend Lines**:
- Draws imaginary trend lines for uptrend and downtrend based on enhanced moving averages.
11. **Support and Resistance Levels**:
- Calculates and plots support and resistance levels using the specified lookback period.
- Stores and plots previous support and resistance levels with dashed lines.
12. **Expected Trend Labels**:
- Adds labels indicating expected uptrend or downtrend based on buy/sell signals.
13. **Alerts**:
- Sets alert conditions for buy and sell signals, triggering alerts when these conditions are met.
14. **Demand and Supply Zones**:
- Draws and extends horizontal lines for demand (support) and supply (resistance) zones.
### Summary:
This script enhances traditional moving average crossovers by adding trend probability calculations, volume-based pressure, and support/resistance levels. It visualizes expected trends and provides comprehensive buy/sell signals with corresponding labels, background color changes, and alerts to help traders make informed decisions.
ZIP Entry Strategy( Using 50 SMA and 100 SMA)Description:
This strategy uses only two simple moving averages, specifically the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA.
Simple moving average : A simple moving average (SMA) calculates the average of a selected range of prices, usually closing prices, by the number of periods in that range.
Here's how it works:
Background color:
The chart background is colored green when the price is above the 100 SMA.
The chart background turns red when the price is below the 100 SMA.
The greenback ground suggest the bullish momentum and the red background suggests the bearish momentum.
We can use this long term trend to take the trades in alignment with the trend to increase our odds.
We will use the 50 SMA to identify the spots when a new trend is starting. When the price crosses above the 50 SMA while the background is green, the candle/bar color changes to white indicating a new trend beginning.
Conversely, when the price crosses below the 50 SMA while the background is red, the candle/bar color also changes to white indicating a new trend beginning.
The occurrence of white candles indicates the start of a potential new trend in alignment with the long term trend.
However, it's essential to remember that like any trading strategy, this one is not perfect. For more reliable results, it's advisable to combine it with a consideration of the overall price structure to minimize false entry signals.
Originality and usefulness
Even though it makes use of two moving averages, we don't use the moving average crossover. The moving average crossovers are either lagging or provide too many false signals. We have tried to address these issue with this strategy. While maintaining the long-term trend and ignoring false signals, it gives out signals early.
You can choose the moving average that best suits your needs by changing these moving averages to a different moving average . The 50 SMA and 100 SMA appeared to be giving the better signals in my experience.
I dont use any other indicators but i would like to check the price structure to make sure its moving along with the 50 SMA. Sometimes the choppy markets might give false signals.
Its okay to see multiple white candles as long as the price structure holds.
I have highlighted the white candles in the above chart. The color of the candle is always the same so the background decides whether its bearish or bullish cross
Classic Long Term Trend Following SystemThis is a classic long term trend following system.
The breakout period is 50 days instead of 20 and the moving average crossover are 40 and 120.
The moving averages are also exponential instead of simple.
The stoploss is 4 ATRs away from the price.
Recommendations:
Donchian Channels settings > 50 days
Moving Averages > 40 and 120, 80 and 140
Important to note:
My first strategy, DC Breakout System | This is simplicity at its finest, is best used on the crypto market and this one for stocks, commodities, currencies, etc. Those markets tend to trend a lot longer than crypto do.
SIMPLE MOVING AVG 10,20,50,100,200 with RESOLUTIONThis indicator is the best than all other sma indicators.Because in just one click you can change all the resolution /time frames for all the sma .
Multitime frame analysis can be done in just one click. just change the resolution to
15 min/30 min/1hr- if you intraday trader
1D- LONG TERM INVESTORS.
Multi-timeframe analysis (MTF) is a process in which traders can view the same ticker/indicator using a higher time frame than the chart’s, for example, displaying a daily moving average on a one-hour chart in just two clicks.
How to Use this to Buy Stocks ?
The technical indicator known as the Death cross occurs when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA => Bearish Signal.
An opposite indicator, known as the Golden cross, occurs when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA => Bullish Signal.
Crossovers are one of the main moving average strategies.
1st Strategy is the first type is a price crossover, which is when the price crosses above the sma => Buy signal
when the price crosses below the sma => Sell signal
2nd Strategy is to apply two moving averages to a chart: one longer and one shorter.
When the shorter-term MA (100) crosses above the longer-term MA (200), it's a buy signal, indicates trend is shifting up.
This is known as a "Golden cross."
Meanwhile, when the shorter-term MA (100) crosses below the longer-term MA (200), it's a sell signal, indicates trend is shifting down.
This is known as a "Dead/death cross."
The time frame or length you choose for a moving average, also called the "look back period," can play a big role in how effective it is.
An MA with a short time frame will react much quicker to price changes than an MA with a long look back period. In the figure below, the 20-day moving average more closely tracks the actual price than the 100-day moving average does.
A 20-day MA = more beneficial to a shorter-term trader, since it follows the price more closely.
A 100-day MA = more beneficial to a longer-term trader.
Moving averages work quite well in strong trending conditions but poorly in choppy or ranging conditions.
use this indicator along with Price action theory and not alone.
Moving average crossovers are a popular strategy for both entries and exits. MAs can also highlight areas of potential support or resistance
Happy Trading
Hash Momentum Strategy# Hash Momentum Strategy
## 📊 Overview
The **Hash Momentum Strategy** is a professional-grade momentum trading system designed to capture strong directional price movements with precision timing and intelligent risk management. Unlike traditional EMA crossover strategies, this system uses momentum acceleration as its primary signal, resulting in earlier entries and better risk-to-reward ratios.
---
## ⚡ What Makes This Strategy Unique
### 1. Momentum-Based Entry System
Most strategies rely on lagging indicators like moving average crossovers. This strategy captures momentum *acceleration* - entering when price movement is gaining strength, not after the move has already happened.
### 2. Programmable Risk-to-Reward
Set your exact R:R ratio (1:2, 1:2.5, 1:3, etc.) and the strategy automatically calculates stop loss and take profit levels. No more guessing or manual calculations.
### 3. Smart Partial Profit Taking
Lock in profits at multiple stages:
- **First TP**: Take 50% off at 2R
- **Second TP**: Take 40% off at 2.5R
- **Final TP**: Let 10% ride to maximum target
This approach locks in gains while letting winners run.
### 4. Dynamic Momentum Threshold
Uses ATR (Average True Range) multiplied by your threshold setting to adapt to market volatility. Volatile markets = higher threshold. Quiet markets = lower threshold.
### 5. Trade Cooldown System
Prevents overtrading and revenge trading by enforcing a cooldown period between trades. Configurable from 1-24 bars.
### 6. Optional Session & Weekend Filters
Filter trades by Tokyo, London, and New York sessions. Optional weekend-off toggle to avoid low-liquidity periods.
---
## 🎯 How It Works
### Signal Generation
**STEP 1: Calculate Momentum**
- Momentum = Current Price - Price
- Check if Momentum > ATR × Threshold Multiplier
- Momentum must be accelerating (positive change in momentum)
**STEP 2: Confirm with EMA Trend Filter**
- Long: Price must be above EMA
- Short: Price must be below EMA
**STEP 3: Check Filters**
- Not in cooldown period
- Valid session (if enabled)
- Not weekend (if enabled)
**STEP 4: ENTRY SIGNAL TRIGGERED**
### Risk Management Example
**Example Long Trade:**
- Entry: $100
- Stop Loss: $97.80 (2.2% risk)
- Risk Amount: $2.20
**Take Profit Levels:**
- TP1: $104.40 (2R = $4.40) → Close 50%
- TP2: $105.50 (2.5R = $5.50) → Close 40%
- Final: $105.50 (2.5R) → Close remaining 10%
---
## ⚙️ Settings Guide
### Core Strategy
**Momentum Length** (Default: 13)
Number of bars for momentum calculation. Higher = stronger but fewer signals.
**Momentum Threshold** (Default: 2.25)
ATR multiplier. Higher = only trade biggest moves.
**Use EMA Trend Filter** (Default: ON)
Only long above EMA, short below EMA.
**EMA Length** (Default: 28)
Period for trend-confirming EMA.
### Filters
**Use Trading Session Filter** (Default: OFF)
Restrict trading to specific sessions.
**Tokyo Session** (Default: OFF)
Trade during Asian hours (00:00-09:00 JST).
**London Session** (Default: OFF)
Trade during European hours (08:00-17:00 GMT).
**New York Session** (Default: OFF)
Trade during US hours (08:00-17:00 EST).
**Weekend Off** (Default: OFF)
Disable trading on Saturdays and Sundays.
### Risk Management
**Stop Loss %** (Default: 2.2)
Fixed percentage stop loss from entry.
**Risk:Reward Ratio** (Default: 2.5)
Your target reward as multiple of risk.
**Use Partial Profit Taking** (Default: ON)
Take profits in stages.
**First TP R:R** (Default: 2.0)
First target as multiple of risk.
**First TP Size %** (Default: 50)
Percentage of position to close at TP1.
**Second TP R:R** (Default: 2.5)
Second target as multiple of risk.
**Second TP Size %** (Default: 40)
Percentage of position to close at TP2.
### Trade Management
**Use Trade Cooldown** (Default: ON)
Prevent overtrading.
**Cooldown Bars** (Default: 6)
Bars to wait after closing a trade.
---
## 🎨 Visual Elements
### Chart Indicators
🟢 **Green Dot** (below bar) = Long entry signal
🔴 **Red Dot** (above bar) = Short entry signal
🔵 **Blue X** (above bar) = Long position closed
🟠 **Orange X** (below bar) = Short position closed
**EMA Line** = Trend direction (green when bullish, red when bearish)
**White Line** = Entry price
**Red Line** = Stop loss level
**Green Lines** = Take profit levels (TP1, TP2, Final)
### Dashboard
When not in real-time mode, a dashboard displays:
- Current position (LONG/SHORT/FLAT)
- Entry price
- Stop loss price
- Take profit price
- R:R ratio
- Current momentum strength
- Total trades
- Win rate
- Net profit %
---
## 📈 Recommended Settings by Timeframe
### 1-Hour Timeframe (Default)
- Momentum Length: 13
- Momentum Threshold: 2.25
- EMA Length: 28
- Stop Loss: 2.2%
- R:R Ratio: 2.5
- Cooldown: 6 bars
### 4-Hour Timeframe
- Momentum Length: 24-36
- Momentum Threshold: 2.5
- EMA Length: 50
- Stop Loss: 3-4%
- R:R Ratio: 2.0-2.5
- Cooldown: 6-8 bars
### 15-Minute Timeframe
- Momentum Length: 8-10
- Momentum Threshold: 2.0
- EMA Length: 20
- Stop Loss: 1.5-2%
- R:R Ratio: 2.0
- Cooldown: 4-6 bars
---
## 🔧 Optimization Tips
### Want More Trades?
- Decrease Momentum Threshold (2.0 instead of 2.25)
- Decrease Momentum Length (10 instead of 13)
- Decrease Cooldown Bars (4 instead of 6)
### Want Higher Quality Trades?
- Increase Momentum Threshold (2.5-3.0)
- Increase Momentum Length (18-24)
- Increase Cooldown Bars (8-10)
### Want Lower Drawdown?
- Increase Cooldown Bars
- Use tighter stop loss
- Enable session filters (trade only high-liquidity sessions)
- Enable Weekend Off
### Want Higher Win Rate?
- Increase R:R Ratio (may reduce total profit)
- Increase Momentum Threshold (fewer but stronger signals)
- Use longer EMA for trend confirmation
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## 📊 Performance Expectations
Based on typical backtesting results:
- **Win Rate**: 35-45%
- **Profit Factor**: 1.5-2.0
- **Risk:Reward**: 1:2.5 (configurable)
- **Max Drawdown**: 10-20%
- **Trades/Month**: 8-15 (1H timeframe)
**Note:** Win rate may appear low, but with 2.5:1 R:R, you only need ~29% win rate to break even. The strategy aims for quality over quantity.
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## 🎓 Strategy Logic Explained
### Why Momentum > EMA Crossover?
**EMA Crossover Problems:**
- Signals lag behind price
- Late entries = poor R:R
- Many false signals in ranging markets
**Momentum Advantages:**
- Catches moves as they start accelerating
- Earlier entries = better R:R
- Adapts to volatility via ATR
### Why Partial Profit Taking?
**Without Partial TPs:**
- All-or-nothing approach
- Winners often turn to losers
- High stress watching open positions
**With Partial TPs:**
- Lock in 50% at first target
- Reduce risk to breakeven
- Let remainder ride for bigger gains
- Lower psychological pressure
### Why Trade Cooldown?
**Without Cooldown:**
- Revenge trading after losses
- Overtrading in choppy markets
- Emotional decision-making
**With Cooldown:**
- Forces discipline
- Waits for new setup to develop
- Reduces transaction costs
- Better signal quality
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## ⚠️ Important Notes
1. **This is a momentum strategy, not an EMA strategy**
The EMA only confirms trend direction. Momentum generates the actual signals.
2. **Backtest thoroughly before live trading**
Past performance ≠ future results. Test on your specific asset and timeframe.
3. **Use proper position sizing**
Risk 1-2% of account per trade maximum. The strategy uses 100% equity by default (adjust in Properties).
4. **Dashboard auto-hides in real-time**
Clean chart for live trading. Visible during backtesting.
5. **Customize for your trading style**
All settings are fully adjustable. No single "best" configuration.
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## 🚀 Quick Start Guide
1. **Add to Chart**: Apply to your preferred asset and timeframe
2. **Keep Defaults**: Start with default settings
3. **Backtest**: Review historical performance
4. **Paper Trade**: Test with simulated money first
5. **Go Live**: Start small and scale up
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## 💡 Pro Tips
**Tip 1: Combine Timeframes**
Use higher timeframe (4H) for trend direction, lower timeframe (1H) for entries.
**Tip 2: Avoid News Events**
Major news can cause whipsaws. Consider manual intervention during high-impact events.
**Tip 3: Monitor Momentum Strength**
Dashboard shows momentum in sigma (σ). Values >1.0σ indicate very strong momentum.
**Tip 4: Adjust for Volatility**
In high-volatility markets, increase threshold and stop loss. In quiet markets, decrease them.
**Tip 5: Review Losing Trades**
Check if losses are hitting stop loss or reversing. Adjust stop accordingly.
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## 📝 Changelog
**v1.0** - Initial Release
- Momentum-based signal generation
- EMA trend filter
- Programmable R:R ratio
- Partial profit taking (3 stages)
- Trade cooldown system
- Session filters (Tokyo/London/New York)
- Weekend off toggle
- Smart dashboard (auto-hides in real-time)
- Clean visual design
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## 🙏 Credits
Developed by **Hash Capital Research**
If you find this strategy useful, please give it a like and share with others!
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## ⚖️ Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before trading.
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## 📬 Feedback
Have suggestions or found a bug? Leave a comment below! I'm continuously improving this strategy based on community feedback.
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**Happy Trading! 🚀📈**
