Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve 2024The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve is a concept used to analyze Bitcoin's price movements over time. The idea is based on the observation that Bitcoin's price tends to grow exponentially, particularly during bull markets. It attempts to give a long-term perspective on the Bitcoin price movements.
The curve includes an upper and lower band. These bands often represent zones where Bitcoin's price is overextended (upper band) or undervalued (lower band) relative to its historical growth trajectory. When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate a speculative bubble, while prices near the lower band may suggest a buying opportunity.
Unlike most Bitcoin growth curve indicators, this one includes a logarithmic growth curve optimized using the latest 2024 price data, making it, in our view, superior to previous models. Additionally, it features statistical confidence intervals derived from linear regression, compatible across all timeframes, and extrapolates the data far into the future. Finally, this model allows users the flexibility to manually adjust the function parameters to suit their preferences.
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve has the following function:
y = 10^(a * log10(x) - b)
In the context of this formula, the y value represents the Bitcoin price, while the x value corresponds to the time, specifically indicated by the weekly bar number on the chart.
How is it made (You can skip this section if you’re not a fan of math):
To optimize the fit of this function and determine the optimal values of a and b, the previous weekly cycle peak values were analyzed. The corresponding x and y values were recorded as follows:
113, 18.55
240, 1004.42
451, 19128.27
655, 65502.47
The same process was applied to the bear market low values:
103, 2.48
267, 211.03
471, 3192.87
676, 16255.15
Next, these values were converted to their linear form by applying the base-10 logarithm. This transformation allows the function to be expressed in a linear state: y = a * x − b. This step is essential for enabling linear regression on these values.
For the cycle peak (x,y) values:
2.053, 1.268
2.380, 3.002
2.654, 4.282
2.816, 4.816
And for the bear market low (x,y) values:
2.013, 0.394
2.427, 2.324
2.673, 3.504
2.830, 4.211
Next, linear regression was performed on both these datasets. (Numerous tools are available online for linear regression calculations, making manual computations unnecessary).
Linear regression is a method used to find a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. It looks at how changes in one variable affect another and tries to predict values based on that relationship.
The goal is to minimize the differences between the actual data points and the points predicted by the line. Essentially, it aims to optimize for the highest R-Square value.
Below are the results:
It is important to note that both the slope (a-value) and the y-intercept (b-value) have associated standard errors. These standard errors can be used to calculate confidence intervals by multiplying them by the t-values (two degrees of freedom) from the linear regression.
These t-values can be found in a t-distribution table. For the top cycle confidence intervals, we used t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), and t33% (0.414). For the bottom cycle confidence intervals, the t-values used were t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), t33% (0.414), t50% (0.765), and t67% (1.063).
The final bull cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.058 ± 0.133 * log10(x) – 6.44 ± 0.324)
The final bear cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.684 ± 0.025 * log10(x) – -9.034 ± 0.063)
The main Criticisms of growth curve models:
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve model faces several general criticisms that we’d like to highlight briefly. The most significant, in our view, is its heavy reliance on past price data, which may not accurately forecast future trends. For instance, previous growth curve models from 2020 on TradingView were overly optimistic in predicting the last cycle’s peak.
This is why we aimed to present our process for deriving the final functions in a transparent, step-by-step scientific manner, including statistical confidence intervals. It's important to note that the bull cycle function is less reliable than the bear cycle function, as the top band is significantly wider than the bottom band.
Even so, we still believe that the Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve presented in this script is overly optimistic since it goes parly against the concept of diminishing returns which we discussed in this post:
This is why we also propose alternative parameter settings that align more closely with the theory of diminishing returns.
Our recommendations:
Drawing on the concept of diminishing returns, we propose alternative settings for this model that we believe provide a more realistic forecast aligned with this theory. The adjusted parameters apply only to the top band: a-value: 3.637 ± 0.2343 and b-parameter: -5.369 ± 0.6264. However, please note that these values are highly subjective, and you should be aware of the model's limitations.
Conservative bull cycle model:
y = 10^(3.637 ± 0.2343 * log10(x) - 5.369 ± 0.6264)
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KLNI RSI MTFDescription of the RSI Multi-Timeframe Indicator
The RSI Multi-Timeframe Indicator allows you to track and compare the Relative Strength Index (RSI) across three different timeframes on the same chart. This is particularly useful for traders who want to gauge the momentum of an asset over multiple time periods simultaneously, helping to make more informed trading decisions.
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe RSI:
You can select up to three timeframes to plot RSI on the same chart.
Available timeframe options include:
Current: Displays RSI for the current chart timeframe.
60 minutes (1 hour)
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Custom RSI Settings:
Adjust the RSI length and source (e.g., close price) through user inputs, allowing you to tailor the indicator to your strategy.
Divergence Detection (Optional):
The indicator can optionally detect and display bullish and bearish divergences between price and RSI for the first selected timeframe.
Bullish divergence is shown when price makes a lower low, but RSI makes a higher low.
Bearish divergence is shown when price makes a higher high, but RSI makes a lower high.
Visual Aids:
Overbought and oversold RSI levels are highlighted with background colors for clarity.
Horizontal lines at 70 (overbought), 50 (neutral), and 30 (oversold) help quickly identify RSI conditions.
How to Use This Indicator
Inputs & Settings
Timeframe Settings:
First Timeframe: Choose the primary timeframe (e.g., 60 minutes, Daily, Weekly).
Second Timeframe: Select the second timeframe to plot on the chart.
Third Timeframe: Select the third timeframe for additional RSI analysis.
RSI Settings:
RSI Length: Set the period for RSI calculation (default: 14).
Source: Select the price data for RSI calculation (default: close price).
Show Divergence: Enable or disable the detection of divergence between price and RSI.
Plotting on Chart
The indicator will display three distinct RSI plots for the selected timeframes:
RSI TF1 (blue line) for the first timeframe.
RSI TF2 (green line) for the second timeframe.
RSI TF3 (red line) for the third timeframe.
Each RSI line corresponds to its chosen timeframe, allowing you to see how RSI behaves across different time periods.
Reading the RSI Values
Overbought: When RSI is above 70, the asset is considered overbought, potentially signaling a sell or short entry.
Oversold: When RSI is below 30, the asset is considered oversold, possibly indicating a buying opportunity.
Neutral: RSI around 50 is neutral and may suggest a lack of clear momentum.
Divergence Detection
If enabled, the indicator will highlight points of divergence:
Bullish Divergence: A green label will appear below the chart where price is making lower lows, but RSI is making higher lows, suggesting potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Divergence: A red label will appear when price is making higher highs, but RSI is making lower highs, indicating potential bearish pressure.
Practical Applications
Momentum Confirmation: Use this indicator to confirm the strength of a trend by comparing RSI across multiple timeframes. For example, if RSI is above 50 on all three timeframes, it may confirm strong upward momentum.
Overbought/Oversold Signals: When RSI is overbought on multiple timeframes, it could signal an impending reversal or correction. Conversely, oversold conditions across timeframes might indicate a buy opportunity.
Divergence Detection: Spot divergence between price and RSI to identify potential trend reversals early. Divergence can provide early signals of changing market momentum.
Summary
This indicator is a powerful tool for multi-timeframe RSI analysis, helping traders understand momentum shifts across different timeframes. It offers customizability, divergence detection, and visual aids to streamline your technical analysis and decision-making process.
Indicator 10**Indicator 10** is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for use on trading platforms that support Pine Script (version 5). This indicator is primarily focused on analyzing price movements over different timeframes, incorporating elements of ZigZag analysis, Fibonacci levels, and historical price range calculations. Below is a detailed description of its features and functionalities:
#### Key Features:
1. **Input Variables:**
- **Year_calc:** Specifies the number of years to consider for historical price range calculations.
- **Size_fibo:** Defines the size of the Fibonacci levels in points.
- **Dig:** Represents the minimum tick size for the instrument being analyzed.
- **ZigZag Parameters:**
- **Period (zigzag_len):** The length of the ZigZag indicator.
- **Depth (zigzag_depth):** The depth percentage for the ZigZag indicator.
- **Display Count (zigzag_hist):** The number of ZigZag points to display.
- **Font Size (font_size):** The size of the font used for labels.
2. **Historical Price Range Calculation:**
- The indicator calculates the average weekly and monthly price ranges over the specified number of years (`Year_calc`).
- These ranges are used to adjust the Fibonacci levels dynamically based on historical volatility.
3. **ZigZag Analysis:**
- The indicator employs a custom ZigZag function to identify significant price swings on different timeframes (H4, D1, W1).
- The ZigZag points are stored in arrays, allowing for the visualization of recent price swings.
4. **Fibonacci Adjustment:**
- The Fibonacci levels are adjusted based on the historical price ranges (`W1_Val`, `MN1_Val`, `D1_Val`).
- These adjusted levels are used to draw support and resistance lines on the chart.
5. **Visualization:**
- The indicator draws lines and labels on the chart to represent the ZigZag points and adjusted Fibonacci levels.
- Different colors are used to distinguish between upward and downward trends.
6. **Dynamic Updates:**
- The indicator continuously updates the ZigZag points and Fibonacci levels as new price data becomes available.
- It ensures that only the most recent ZigZag points are displayed, maintaining a clean and relevant chart.
#### How It Works:
1. **Initialization:**
- The indicator initializes variables for storing historical price ranges and ZigZag points.
- It sets the start date for historical calculations based on the current year minus the specified number of years (`Year_calc`).
2. **Historical Data Retrieval:**
- The indicator retrieves weekly and monthly high and low prices for the specified period.
- It calculates the total price range and the average range for each timeframe.
3. **ZigZag Calculation:**
- The custom ZigZag function identifies local highs and lows based on the specified period and depth.
- These points are stored in arrays for later visualization.
4. **Fibonacci Adjustment:**
- The Fibonacci levels are adjusted based on the historical price ranges and the specified Fibonacci size.
- These adjusted levels are used to draw lines on the chart.
5. **Visualization:**
- The indicator draws lines connecting ZigZag points and labels indicating the direction of the trend.
- It ensures that only the most recent ZigZag points are displayed, maintaining a clean and relevant chart.
6. **Continuous Updates:**
- The indicator continuously updates the ZigZag points and Fibonacci levels as new price data becomes available.
- It ensures that only the most recent ZigZag points are displayed, maintaining a clean and relevant chart.
#### Conclusion:
**Indicator 10** is a powerful tool for traders who rely on historical price analysis, ZigZag patterns, and Fibonacci levels to make trading decisions. Its dynamic and adaptive nature ensures that the chart remains relevant and useful, providing traders with a clear view of recent price movements and potential support/resistance levels.
Adaptive VWAP [QuantAlgo]Introducing the Adaptive VWAP by QuantAlgo 📈🧬
Enhance your trading and investing strategies with the Adaptive VWAP , a versatile tool designed to provide dynamic insights into market trends and price behavior. This indicator offers a flexible approach to VWAP calculations by allowing users to adapt it based on lookback periods or fixed timeframes, making it suitable for a wide range of market conditions.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable VWAP Settings: Choose between an adaptive VWAP that adjusts based on a rolling lookback period, or switch to a fixed timeframe (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) for a more structured approach. Adjust the VWAP to suit your trading or investing style.
💫 Dynamic Bands and ATR Filter: Configurable deviation bands with multipliers allow you to visualize price movement around VWAP, while an ATR-based noise filter helps reduce false signals during periods of market fluctuation.
🎨 Trend Visualization: Color-coded trend identification helps you easily spot uptrends and downtrends based on VWAP positioning. The indicator fills the areas between the bands for clearer visual representation of price volatility and trend strength.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Set up alerts for when price crosses above or below the VWAP, signaling potential uptrend or downtrend opportunities. Stay informed without needing to monitor the charts constantly.
✍️ How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Adaptive VWAP to your favourites and apply to your chart. Choose between adaptive or timeframe-based VWAP calculation, adjust the lookback period, and configure the deviation bands to your preferred settings.
👀 Monitor Bands and Trends: Watch for price interaction with the VWAP and its deviation bands. The color-coded signals and band fills help identify potential trend shifts or price extremes.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for uptrend and downtrend signals based on price crossing the VWAP, so you’re always informed of significant market movements.
⚙️ How It Works:
The Adaptive VWAP adjusts its calculation based on the user’s chosen configuration, allowing for a flexible approach to market analysis. The adaptive setting uses a rolling lookback period to continuously adjust the VWAP, while the fixed timeframe option anchors VWAP to key timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly periods. This flexibility enables traders and investors to use the tool in various market environments.
Deviation bands, calculated with customizable multipliers, provide a clear visual of how far the price has moved from the VWAP, helping you gauge potential overbought or oversold conditions. To reduce false signals, an ATR-based filter can be applied, ensuring that only significant price movements trigger trend confirmations.
The tool also includes a fast exponential smoothing function for the VWAP, helping smooth out price fluctuations without sacrificing responsiveness. Trend confirmation is reinforced by the number of bars that price stays above or below the VWAP, ensuring a more consistent trend identification process.
Disclaimer:
The Adaptive VWAP is designed to enhance your market analysis but should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading or investing decisions. Always combine it with other analytical tools and practices. No statements or signals from this indicator constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FiboTrace.V33FiboTrace.V33 - Advanced Fibonacci Retracement Indicator is a powerful and visually intuitive Fibonacci retracement indicator designed to help traders identify key support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes. Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, FiboTrace.V33 provides the essential tools needed to spot potential price reversals and continuations with precision.
Key Features:
• Dynamic Fibonacci Levels: Automatically plots the most relevant Fibonacci retracement levels based on recent swing highs and lows, ensuring you always have the most accurate and up-to-date levels on your chart.
• Gradient Color Zones: Easily distinguish between different Fibonacci levels with visually appealing gradient color fills. These zones help you quickly identify key areas of price interaction, making your analysis more efficient.
• Customizable Levels: Tailor FiboTrace.V33 to your trading style by adjusting the Fibonacci levels and colors to match your preferences. This flexibility allows you to focus on the levels most relevant to your strategy.
• Multi-Timeframe Versatility: Works seamlessly across all timeframes, from 1-minute charts for day traders to weekly and monthly charts for long-term investors. The indicator adapts to your trading horizon, providing reliable signals in any market environment.
• Confluence Alerts: Receive alerts when price enters zones where multiple Fibonacci levels overlap, indicating strong support or resistance. This feature helps you catch high-probability trade setups without constantly monitoring the charts.
How to Use:
• Identify Entry and Exit Points: Use the plotted Fibonacci levels to determine potential entry and exit points. Price retracements to key Fibonacci levels can signal opportunities to enter trades in the direction of the prevailing trend.
• Spot Reversals and Continuations: Watch for price action around the gradient color zones. A bounce off a Fibonacci level may indicate a trend continuation, while a break could signal a potential reversal.
• Combine with Other Indicators: For best results, consider using FiboTrace.V33 in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, RSI, or MACD, to confirm signals and enhance your trading strategy.
Timeframe Recommendations:
• Shorter Timeframes (1-minute to 1-hour): Ideal for quick, intraday trades, though signals might be more prone to noise due to rapid market fluctuations.
• Medium Timeframes (4-hour to daily): Perfect for swing trading, offering more reliable Fibonacci levels that capture broader market trends.
• Longer Timeframes (weekly to monthly): Best for long-term investors, where Fibonacci levels act as strong support and resistance based on significant market moves.
• General Tip: Fibonacci retracement levels are more reliable on higher timeframes, but combining them with other indicators like moving averages or RSI can enhance signal accuracy across any timeframe.
Why FiboTrace.V33?
FiboTrace.V33 is more than just a Fibonacci retracement tool—it’s an essential part of any trader’s toolkit. Its intuitive design and advanced features help you stay ahead of the market, making it easier to identify high-probability trading opportunities and manage risk effectively.
DP-OCR MTF & MA 2024This script developed is designed for multi-timeframe analysis of previous open, close, and range, with additional signal plots based on various percentage extension levels. It also incorporates EMA calculations for crossover strategies. Here's a quick breakdown of what the script does:
Key Features:
1. Timeframes:
o Two separate timeframes (TF1 and TF2), which can be set by the user (e.g., 15 mins, 30 mins, daily, etc.). The script computes price actions and extensions for both timeframes. For better analysis, use Daily in TF1 and Weekly in TF2
2. Extension Levels:
o Calculates and plots 10%, 21%, 31%, 51%, and 61% extensions (both positive and negative) for each timeframe.
o The most commonly used extension levels are 61%, 31%, -61%, and -21%.
o These extension levels can be turned on or off by the user.
3. Open/Close/Range:
o Tracks the high, low, open, and close for both timeframes.
o Highlights open/close gaps.
o Plots the previous high/low range for both timeframes with a fill and different colors based on price movement.
How to Use:
• You can toggle specific extension levels on or off in the script’s settings.
• For example, when price hits a +61% extension, it could signal a breakout, and when it hits a -61% extension, it may indicate a potential retracement.
• Use these levels in conjunction with your price action analysis to set entry/exit points or stop-loss levels.
4. Today’s Open:
o Plots today’s opening price for both timeframes.
How to Use:
• Use today’s open as a key reference point to determine the day’s price action.
• Compare today’s open with the previous high/low or extension levels to evaluate possible trends or reversals.
5. EMA Calculations:
o The script calculates 5, 15, and 20 period EMAs and plots them on the chart.
o Additional EMA crossover signals can be included for strategy optimization.
How to Use:
• Observe the EMAs for potential crossover signals. For example, a 5-period EMA crossing above a 15-period or 20-period EMA may signal a buy opportunity, while a crossover in the opposite direction may signal a sell.
• Combine the EMA crossovers with extension levels or previous price data to refine your entries and exits.
Customizations Available:
• Users can select whether to display extension levels for either timeframe.
• The script allows automatic adaptation to intraday, daily, weekly, or monthly timeframes based on the current chart settings.
Moreover, the extension levels are calculated based on the previous period’s range, with the most commonly usable extension levels being 61, 31, -61, and -21. These levels are often used for identifying potential price retracements, breakouts, or reversal points in technical analysis.
VWAP Periodic Close [LuxAlgo]The VWAP Periodic Close script offers an advanced tool for analyzing the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) across various timeframes.
This tool enables traders to visualize VWAP close levels for daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods, offering a comprehensive view of price behavior across different time frames. It helps in identifying key levels where the VWAP closes at the end of each specified period.
🔶 USAGE
This script is designed to enhance your trading strategy by plotting VWAP close levels on your chart for different time periods. This helps traders easily identify historical VWAP levels and analyze price action relative to these levels, particularly useful for identifying key support and resistance levels providing insights into potential future price behavior.
Supports VWAP closes for multiple timeframes, including historical periods (e.g., 3 months back, 3 quarters back, 3 years back). The labels provide context and detailed information about the VWAP close at a specific point in time and enhance the clarity and usefulness of the VWAP data presented on the chart.
Users can toggle the display of VWAP lines for different periods and customize the colors for each timeframe (e.g., distinct colors for monthly, quarterly, and yearly closes).
🔶 SETTINGS
The script offers a range of customizable settings to tailor the analysis to your trading needs.
🔹 Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP Close Level: Toggle the display of VWAP levels at the end of each period (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly).
VWAP Origin: Toggle the display of the VWAP line for each period.
VWAP Source: Choose the data source for VWAP calculations (default is HLC3).
Historical Closes: Define the number of historical VWAP levels to plot.
Line/Label Offset: Adjust the offset for positioning lines and labels on the chart.
🔹 Themes
Theme Selection: Choose between "Day," "Night," or "Custom" themes to adjust the color scheme of VWAP lines and labels.
Tomorrow Floor Pivots with CPR By Nifty ZThe colors for resistance and support levels have been updated to gradient reds and greens for clearer distinction.
The CPR band uses light blue and purple to stand out more effectively.
Here's a detailed explanation of the user inputs and the typical use of **Floor Pivots for Tomorrow’s Market Range** in a trading context, focusing on support, resistance, and breakout scenarios:
The script allows traders to customize key parameters for their analysis:
1. Pivot Timeframe:
- Users can select different timeframes for calculating floor pivots, such as 1 hour, 4 hours, daily, weekly, monthly, etc.
- This is crucial because the timeframe selection influences the granularity of the support and resistance levels for the next trading day.
- For instance, selecting a **Daily** timeframe will calculate floor pivots for the next trading day, while selecting **Weekly** will give levels for the upcoming week.
2. Show Floor Pivots:
- Users can toggle the visibility of the calculated **Floor Pivots**, which include resistance levels (R1, R2, R3, R4) and support levels (S1, S2, S3, S4).
3. Show CPR (Central Pivot Range):
- CPR (Central Pivot Range) is a key area where the price tends to consolidate.
- The script allows users to enable or disable the visibility of CPR, which consists of the BC (Bottom Central Pivot) and TC (Top Central Pivot).
4. Show Labels:
- Users can choose whether or not to display labels indicating the **Pivot**, **Support**, and Resistance levels on the chart. This can be helpful for visual analysis when day trading.
Understanding Floor Pivots
The Floor Pivots (Pivot, Resistance, and Support levels) for tomorrow's market range are calculated based on today’s high, low, and close. These levels help traders anticipate how the market may behave in the upcoming session.
1. Pivot:
- The Pivot Point is a central level, calculated as the average of the high, low, and close. It’s considered a reference point that determines the market’s overall bias.
- If the price is trading **above the pivot**, it generally suggests a **bullish** sentiment for the day.
- If the price is trading **below the pivot**, it suggests a **bearish** sentiment.
2. Resistance Levels (R1, R2, R3, R4):
- R1 is often the first area where price may stall in an uptrend. It represents the first major resistance level.
- **R2**, **R3**, and **R4** mark additional levels of resistance, progressively further away from the current price. These are used to project potential upward targets.
- These resistance levels are areas where the price might encounter selling pressure, especially during day trading.
3. **Support Levels (S1, S2, S3, S4):**
- Similarly, **S1** is the first area where the price might find support in a downtrend.
- **S2**, **S3**, and **S4** provide deeper support levels where the price may bounce from.
- These support zones are used by day traders to anticipate where the price might reverse upward.
### **Role of Resistance and Support in Day Trading**
- **Resistance Levels (R1, R2, R3, R4)** indicate potential areas where price could **stall** during an uptrend. These levels are useful for **short-term traders** looking to set exit points or identify reversal zones.
- **Support Levels (S1, S2, S3, S4)** highlight areas where the price could **find support** and potentially **bounce** higher. These levels are particularly helpful for identifying buy zones in a downtrend.
- If a price **breaks out** above the resistance levels or **breaks down** below the support levels, it often signals a strong trend continuation.
### **Understanding the Central Pivot Range (CPR)**
The **CPR** is formed by two key levels:
- **BC (Bottom Central Pivot):** The midpoint of the day’s high and low.
- **TC (Top Central Pivot):** The difference between the pivot and BC.
The CPR acts as a region of **consolidation** or **indecision** where the market is likely to stay within a narrow range. The width of the CPR gives traders a sense of volatility:
- A **narrow CPR** often signals that a **breakout** is imminent.
- A **wider CPR** suggests that the market could remain range-bound.
### **Market Sentiment Based on Floor Pivots**
The relationship between **today’s** and **tomorrow’s pivots** is crucial in determining the market sentiment for the next day.
1. **Bullish Case (Higher Highs):**
- If **tomorrow's pivot** is higher than **today's pivot**, it indicates a **bullish sentiment**. This suggests that the market is likely to trend upward in the next session.
- In a **bullish overlapping pivot range**, if **Day 1 (today)** is higher than **Day 2 (tomorrow)**, traders expect continued upward momentum.
2. **Bearish Case (Lower Lows):**
- Conversely, if **tomorrow's pivot** is lower than **today's pivot**, it suggests a **bearish sentiment** and that the market could trend downward in the next session.
- In a **bearish overlapping pivot range**, if **Day 1 (today)** is lower than **Day 2 (tomorrow)**, traders expect continued downward pressure.
### **Breakout Scenarios**
A breakout occurs when the price **violates either the support or resistance levels** significantly, indicating that the price is moving in the direction of the breakout.
1. **Bullish Breakout:**
- If the price consistently stays **above the CPR** and **resistance levels (R1, R2)**, it indicates a strong **bullish breakout**.
- This is especially true when the **CPR is narrow** for both days, signaling a buildup in price action and a potential breakout to the upside.
2. **Bearish Breakout:**
- If the price breaks **below the CPR** and **support levels (S1, S2)**, it indicates a **bearish breakout**.
- A narrow CPR on **both days** suggests that a breakout to the downside could be imminent.
3. **Neutral or Ranging Days:**
- Sometimes, the CPR stays **unchanged** for 4-5 days, indicating a period of **consolidation** where the price is moving within a tight range. This often leads to a significant breakout once the consolidation ends.
Strategic Application of Floor Pivots for Tomorrow
Traders use floor pivots to plan their next-day trades by:
- **Aligning with Market Sentiment:** Based on whether tomorrow’s pivot is higher or lower than today’s, traders can align their trades in the direction of the market’s overall bias.
- **Identifying Entry and Exit Points:** Resistance and support levels provide well-defined areas to enter or exit trades, making pivots essential for day trading strategies.
- **Anticipating Breakouts:** Monitoring the width of the CPR and the relation between pivots helps traders anticipate potential breakouts, allowing them to react quickly to sudden price movements.
By effectively using these pivots and understanding their significance, traders can improve their decision-making for short-term trades in the stock or futures markets.
MTF Candle Multi HubMTF Candle Multi Hub Indicator - Guide 日本語解説は下記
Introduction
The "MTF Candle Multi Hub" indicator is a versatile and comprehensive tool designed to visualize multiple timeframes' candlestick data, Heikin Ashi candles, and moving averages on a single chart. This indicator also includes a Zigzag feature with the ability to draw horizontal lines at significant swing points, making it a powerful tool for technical analysis.
Key Features
Multi-Timeframe Candlestick Display:
The indicator allows you to display candlesticks from different timeframes, including 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes.
Each timeframe's candlestick can be toggled on or off using the settings panel.
Candlesticks are color-coded based on whether the close is higher or lower than the open, with customizable colors for bullish and bearish candles.
Heikin Ashi Candlesticks:
Heikin Ashi candlesticks are also available for 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes.
Like the standard candlesticks, these can be toggled on or off, and their colors are customizable.
Moving Averages (MA):
The indicator supports up to four different moving averages, which can be either Simple Moving Average (SMA) or Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The user can toggle each moving average on or off and adjust the period and type from the settings panel.
An additional feature allows the space between two moving averages to be filled with a color, indicating the relative position of the MAs.
Zigzag Indicator with Horizontal Lines:
The Zigzag feature plots lines between significant swing highs and lows, helping identify trends and potential reversal points.
Two Zigzag lines can be configured, each with customizable swing length, line color, style, and width.
The indicator also offers the ability to draw horizontal lines at the start and end of each Zigzag swing. These horizontal lines can be customized in terms of color, style, width, and length.
The number of horizontal lines to be drawn can be set, allowing for focused analysis of the most recent swings.
Label and Comment Display:
The indicator provides the option to display custom labels and comments on the chart.
You can enter up to ten different comments, which will be displayed in a label at the last candlestick of the chart.
The label's position, background color, text color, and text size are fully customizable.
Trading Strategy
Trend Following with Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Use the multi-timeframe candlestick and Heikin Ashi features to assess the trend across different timeframes. For example, if both the daily and 4-hour Heikin Ashi candles are bullish, it may indicate a strong uptrend.
Entry and Exit Signals:
Use the Zigzag indicator to identify potential entry points by looking for a new swing high or low.
Horizontal lines from the Zigzag can be used as support and resistance levels, helping to determine potential entry and exit points.
Moving Average Crossovers:
Monitor the crossovers of the moving averages. For example, when a shorter-term MA crosses above a longer-term MA, it may signal a potential buy opportunity.
Confluence of Signals:
The best trading opportunities may arise when multiple signals align. For example, a bullish Zigzag swing, supported by bullish Heikin Ashi candles and a moving average crossover, could provide a strong buy signal.
Disclaimer
For Educational Purposes Only: This indicator is provided for educational purposes and should not be used as the sole basis for any trading decisions.
No Guarantees: The indicator is provided "as is" without any guarantees of accuracy or completeness. Market conditions can change rapidly, and this indicator may not always reflect the most accurate market state.
Test Thoroughly: Bugs may exist in the script. It is highly recommended to test this script on a demo account before using it in live trading.
Use with Caution: Always use this indicator in conjunction with other analysis tools. Do not rely solely on this indicator for making trading decisions.
Sudden Changes or Removal: The indicator may be subject to sudden changes or removal without prior notice. The developer is not responsible for any issues this may cause.
By using this indicator, you agree to these terms.
MTF Candle Multi Hub インジケーター - ガイド
はじめに
「MTF Candle Multi Hub」インジケーターは、複数の時間枠のローソク足データ、平均足、移動平均線を1つのチャート上で視覚化するために設計された多用途かつ包括的なツールです。このインジケーターには、水平線を描画する機能を備えたジグザグ機能も含まれており、テクニカル分析において強力なツールとなります。
主な機能
マルチタイムフレームのローソク足表示:
5分足、15分足、1時間足、4時間足、日足、週足のローソク足を表示することができます。
各時間枠のローソク足は設定パネルでオンまたはオフに切り替えることができます。
ローソク足は、終値が始値より高いか低いかに基づいて色分けされており、強気と弱気のローソク足の色をカスタマイズできます。
平均足ローソク足:
5分足、15分足、1時間足、4時間足、日足、週足の平均足ローソク足を表示することができます。
標準のローソク足と同様に、これらをオンまたはオフに切り替え、色をカスタマイズすることが可能です。
移動平均線（MA）:
このインジケーターは、単純移動平均線（SMA）または指数移動平均線（EMA）のいずれかを選択できる4つの移動平均線をサポートしています。
各移動平均線をオンまたはオフに切り替え、期間やタイプを設定パネルから調整できます。
また、2本の移動平均線の間に色を塗ることで、MAの相対的な位置を視覚的に表示する機能もあります。
ジグザグインジケーターと水平線:
ジグザグ機能は、重要なスイングの高値と安値の間に線を引き、トレンドや潜在的な反転ポイントを識別するのに役立ちます。
2本のジグザグラインを設定することができ、それぞれのスイングの長さ、線の色、スタイル、幅をカスタマイズできます。
また、ジグザグのスイングの始点と終点に水平線を描画する機能も提供されています。これらの水平線は、色、スタイル、幅、長さをカスタマイズできます。
描画する水平線の本数を設定でき、最新のスイングに焦点を当てた分析が可能です。
ラベルとコメントの表示:
インジケーターは、チャート上にカスタムラベルとコメントを表示するオプションを提供します。
最大10個の異なるコメントを入力することができ、これらはチャートの最新のローソク足にラベルとして表示されます。
ラベルの位置、背景色、テキストの色、テキストのサイズは完全にカスタマイズ可能です。
トレード戦略
マルチタイムフレーム分析を使用したトレンドフォロー:
マルチタイムフレームのローソク足や平均足の機能を使用して、異なる時間枠でのトレンドを評価します。例えば、日足と4時間足の平均足が共に強気であれば、強い上昇トレンドを示している可能性があります。
エントリーとエグジットシグナル:
ジグザグインジケーターを使用して、新たなスイング高値または安値を確認し、エントリーポイントを見極めます。
ジグザグの水平線をサポートおよびレジスタンスレベルとして使用し、エントリーやエグジットのタイミングを判断します。
移動平均線のクロスオーバー:
移動平均線のクロスオーバーを監視します。例えば、短期の移動平均線が長期の移動平均線を上抜けた場合、買いのシグナルとなる可能性があります。
シグナルのコンフルエンス:
複数のシグナルが一致する場合、最も良いトレード機会が生まれるかもしれません。例えば、強気のジグザグスイング、強気の平均足、移動平均線のクロスオーバーが揃うと、強力な買いシグナルとなる可能性があります。
免責事項
教育目的のみ: このインジケーターは教育目的で提供されており、トレードの決定を行う際の唯一の基準として使用すべきではありません。
保証なし: インジケーターは「現状のまま」提供されており、その正確性や完全性についての保証はありません。市場の状況は急速に変化する可能性があり、このインジケーターが常に最も正確な市場状況を反映するとは限りません。
十分なテストを: このスクリプトにはバグが存在する可能性があります。実際のトレードで使用する前に、デモ口座で十分にテストすることを強くお勧めします。
慎重に使用: このインジケーターを他の分析ツールと併用して使用してください。このインジケーターだけに頼ってトレードの決定を行うべきではありません。
突然の変更や削除の可能性: このインジケーターは予告なく変更や削除が行われる場合があります。そのため、利用者に不利益が生じる可能性がありますが、開発者はその責任を負いません。
このインジケーターを使用することで、これらの条件に同意したものとみなされます。
ADR (Log Scale) with MTF LabelsHere's a detailed presentation of the Average Daily Range (ADR) indicator, with a focus on its advantages compared to the classic ADR, its unique features, utility, and interpretation:
Advantages Compared to Classic ADR
1. Logarithmic Scale: Unlike the classic ADR, which uses a linear scale, this version uses a logarithmic scale for calculations. This approach provides a more accurate representation of relative price movements, especially for assets with large price ranges.
2. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: This enhanced ADR indicator allows traders to view daily, weekly, and monthly ADRs simultaneously. This multi-timeframe capability helps traders understand volatility trends over different periods, offering a more comprehensive market analysis.
3. Optional Smoothing: The inclusion of an optional smoothing feature (using Exponential Moving Average, EMA) helps reduce noise in the data. This makes the indicator more reliable by filtering out short-term fluctuations and highlighting the underlying volatility trend.
4. Information Display Labels: The indicator includes labels that display precise ADR values for each timeframe directly on the chart. This feature provides immediate, clear insights without requiring additional calculations or references.
Utility of the Indicator
1. Volatility Analysis: The ADR indicator is essential for assessing market volatility. By showing the average daily price range, it helps traders gauge how much an asset typically moves within a day, week, or month.
2. Risk Management: ADR levels can be used to set stop-loss points, improving risk management strategies. Knowing the average range helps traders avoid setting stops too close to the current price, which might otherwise be triggered by normal market fluctuations.
3. Setting Realistic Targets: By understanding the average daily range, traders can set more realistic profit targets. This helps in avoiding over-ambitious goals that are unlikely to be reached within the typical market movement.
4. Identifying Entry and Exit Points: The ADR can signal potential entry and exit points. For example, if the price approaches the upper or lower ADR boundary, it might indicate an overbought or oversold condition, respectively.
Interpretation and Examples
1. Increasing Volatility: If the ADR is increasing, it indicates rising market volatility. Traders might adjust their strategies accordingly, such as widening their stop-losses to accommodate larger price swings.
2. Range Breakout: If the price significantly exceeds the daily ADR, it may signal a strong trend or exceptional market movement. Traders can use this information to stay in the trade longer or to anticipate a potential reversal.
3. Mean Reversion: Prices often revert to the ADR mean. A trader might consider mean reversion trades when the price approaches the extremes of the ADR range, expecting it to move back towards the average.
4. Multi-Timeframe Comparison: If the daily ADR is higher than the weekly ADR, it may indicate unusually high short-term volatility. This can be a signal for traders to be cautious or to capitalize on the increased movement.
While the ADR indicator provides valuable insights into market volatility and can significantly enhance trading strategies, it is essential to remember that no indicator is foolproof. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not always indicative of future results. Traders should use the ADR indicator in conjunction with other tools and follow sound risk management practices to protect their capital.
MultiTFlevels with Volume Display1. Overview
This indicator is intended for use on trading platforms like TradingView and provides the following features:
Volume Profile Analysis:
Shows cumulative volume delta (CVD) and displays buying and selling volumes.
Historical OHLC Levels:
Plots historical open, high, low, and close levels for various timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly).
Customizable Settings:
Allows users to toggle different elements and customize display options.
2. Inputs
Timeframe Display Toggles:
Users can choose to display OHLC levels from different timeframes such as previous month, week, day, 4H, 1H, 30M, 15M, and 5M.
CVD Display Toggle: Option to show or hide the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD).
Line and Label Customization:
leftOffset and rightOffset: Define how far lines are extended left and right from the current bar.
colorMonth, colorWeek, etc.: Customize colors for different timeframe OHLC levels.
labelOffset and rightOffset: Control the positioning of volume labels.
3. Key Features
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)
Calculation:
Computes the cumulative volume delta by adding or subtracting the volume based on whether the close price is higher or lower than the open price.
Display:
Shows a label on the chart indicating the current CVD value and whether the market is leaning towards buying or selling.
Historical OHLC Levels
Data Retrieval:
Uses the request.security function to fetch OHLC data from different timeframes (e.g., monthly, weekly, daily).
Plotting:
Draws lines and labels on the chart to represent open, high, low, and close levels for each selected timeframe.
Buying and Selling Volumes
Calculation:
Calculates buying and selling volumes based on whether the close price is higher or lower than the open price.
Display:
Shows labels on the chart for buying and selling volumes.
4. Functions
getOHLC(timeframe)
Retrieves open, high, low, and close values from the specified timeframe.
plotOHLC(show, open, high, low, close, col, prefix)
Draws OHLC lines and labels on the chart for the given timeframe and color.
5. Usage
Chart Overlay: The indicator is overlaid on the main chart (i.e., it appears directly on the price chart).
Historical Analysis:
Useful for analyzing historical price levels and volume dynamics across different timeframes.
Volume Insights:
Helps traders understand the cumulative volume behavior and market sentiment through the CVD and volume labels.
In essence, this indicator provides a comprehensive view of historical price levels across multiple timeframes and the dynamics of market volume through CVD and volume labels. It can be particularly useful for traders looking to combine price action with volume analysis for a more in-depth market assessment.
CoT Trend Change MomentumI discovered that whenever there's huge change in long IO or short IO there will be a momentum shift. So, I created this indicator to spot massive explosive volume changes for commercials and non commercials activity. Using standard deviation 2 and -2 as extreme point. Whatever crossing above standard deviation 2 indicating positions are added regardless whether it is long or shorts, whatever crossing below standard deviation -2 means positions are closed.
This is how I use this indicator:
1) In this example , i use only the commercials long and shorts. Whenever the longs exceed stdeviation +2, means that long volume flow in massively, for me this can be indicating potential to the upside. Whenever longs fall below stdeviation-2, for me this can be indicating that commercials are either taking profits for the short positions or accumulating for another bull price.
2) For shorts same logic applied here, when it exceeds stdeviation +2, mean commercials shorts position increase massively, when it exceeds stdeviation-2, means that commercials closed their short positions.
For this script, I use 13 weeks period as lookback, u guys may directly modify the period in the script to set the period that u want.
I've added for non-commercials as well, to ease people who emphasizes on non-commercials positioning analysis process.
I'm still trying to incorporate this with Open Interest Analysis. Hopefully u guys find this indicator useful. Feel free to modify it, to understand it more, my suggestions are u compare date by date the positions, to see the extreme points. The indicator only works in weekly chart, it is non repainted only in weekly chart, meaning that the indicator shows the histogram just as the week open.
VWMA Multiple TimeframesVWMA Multiple Timeframes Indicator
This TradingView indicator plots the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) across multiple timeframes on your chart. The VWMA is a type of moving average that gives more weight to periods with higher volume, making it a valuable tool for traders who want to incorporate volume into their technical analysis.
Features:
Multi-timeframe Analysis: This indicator calculates and plots the VWMA on five different timeframes:
Weekly (W)
Daily (D)
4 Hours (240 minutes)
1 Hour (60 minutes)
15 Minutes
Visual Representation: Each timeframe's VWMA is plotted with a different color, making it easy to distinguish between them on the chart:
Weekly VWMA: Gray
Daily VWMA: Blue
4 Hours VWMA: Red
1 Hour VWMA: Green
15 Minutes VWMA: Purple
How to Use:
Trend Identification: Use the VWMA to identify the direction of the trend on different timeframes. For example, if the VWMA is trending upwards on multiple timeframes, it indicates a strong upward trend.
Support and Resistance: The VWMA can act as dynamic support or resistance levels. Price bouncing off a VWMA line might indicate a continuation of the trend.
Volume Confirmation: The VWMA considers volume, making it useful for confirming the strength of price movements. High volume moves that cause the VWMA to change direction can be more significant than low volume moves.
This indicator is ideal for traders who use multi-timeframe analysis and want to incorporate volume into their trend and support/resistance identification. Feel free to customize the periods and timeframes to suit your trading style.
Market Structure & Session Alerts### Market Structure & Session Alerts Indicator
#### Overview
The "Market Structure & Session Alerts" indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to assist traders in identifying key market structure levels, detecting liquidity sweeps, and receiving alerts for specific trading sessions. This indicator is particularly useful for traders who want to keep an eye on previous high and low levels and be alerted during pre-London and pre-New York sessions.
#### Features
1. **Previous High/Low Levels:**
- **Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Highs and Lows:** The indicator plots the previous day, week, and month high and low levels on the chart. These levels can be crucial for identifying support and resistance zones.
- **Toggle Display:** Users can choose to show or hide these levels using the "Show Previous Day/Week/Month High/Low" option.
2. **Liquidity Sweep Detection:**
- **Liquidity Sweep Identification:** The indicator detects liquidity sweeps when the current price closes above the previous day's high. This can signal potential reversals or continuations in the market.
- **Visual Alerts:** When a liquidity sweep is detected, a green triangle is plotted below the bar.
3. **Session Alerts:**
- **Session Timings:** Users can set specific start and end times for the pre-London and pre-New York sessions to match their timezone.
- **Visual Background Highlight:** The background of the chart is highlighted in yellow during the defined session times to provide a visual cue.
- **Alert Messages:** The indicator can generate alerts to notify traders when the market enters the pre-London or pre-New York session.
4. **Current Price Line:**
- The current price is plotted as a black line, providing a clear visual reference for the current market price.
#### How to Use
1. **Input Parameters:**
- `Show Previous Day/Week/Month High/Low`: Enable or disable the display of previous high/low levels.
- `Show Liquidity Sweep`: Enable or disable the detection and display of liquidity sweeps.
- `Show Session Alerts`: Enable or disable session alerts and background highlights.
2. **Session Timing Adjustments:**
- Set the `Pre-London Start`, `Pre-London End`, `Pre-New York Start`, and `Pre-New York End` times according to your timezone to ensure accurate session alerts.
3. **Alerts:**
- Make sure alerts are enabled in your TradingView settings to receive notifications when the market enters the pre-London or pre-New York sessions.
#### Example Use Cases
- **Day Traders:** Identify potential support and resistance levels using the previous day's high and low.
- **Swing Traders:** Use weekly and monthly high and low levels to determine significant market structure points.
- **Scalpers:** Detect liquidity sweeps to identify potential quick trades.
- **Session Traders:** Be alerted when the market enters key trading sessions to align your trading strategy with major market activities.
This indicator combines multiple market analysis tools into one, providing a robust system for traders to enhance their trading decisions and market awareness.
Quantiple Direction IndexThis indicator indicates market trends by analyzing the following signals:
1. RSI which is a momentum oscillator
2. Directional Movement Index (DMI) which measures the direction of the movement
3. Price in comparison to EMA 13 and 21 to determine whether the trend is clear or there is an ambiguity
4. ADX that shows the strength of the momentum
Scoring logic
While we have kept the source code open which gives the scoring logic, for ease of the user, I am summarizing the scoring logic
A. We break down RSI and DMI into a 9 point scale (-4 to +4) from extremely bearish to bullish. Then we give equal weight to both and come out with a direction score.
B. We use EMA to determine if their is clarity in the price trend. While the direction is deduced from point A, if there is clarity we know that the confidence on the direction is high. If EMA 13 is higher than EMA 21 and the price is above EMA 13, then we assign it as a score of +1 as we get clear bullish trend. Similarly if EMA 13 is below EMA 21 and the price is below both the EMAs then we assign it a score of -1 as we get clear bearish trend. Anything else is considered as inconclusive and given a score of 0
C. We use ADX to determine the strength of the directional momentum. It is like acceleration. We use ADX score as an strength adjustment factor. If the value is above 25 - we multiply A+B by 1.25. Similarly we multiply it by 0.75 if the strength is weak and no change if the strength is neutral.
Finally this indicator categorizes market direction into five levels:
- Very Bullish
- Bullish
- Neutral
- Bearish
- Very Bearish
Scores range from +6 (very bullish) to -6 (very bearish), with the user setting thresholds for each category. The midpoint between Bullish and Bearish defines the neutral zone.
Again all the exact values are in the code and the user can also customize as per their trading system.
Why does it make sense to combine these different indicators rather than looking at them in isolation?
We give equal weight to RSI and DMI to derive the direction of the price movement. Using two different indicators provide a better confirmation on the direction. However, this alone is not sufficient.
We want clarity of the direction and for that we use the EMA score (please refer to point B above). If we have clarity, the probability of the direction being right goes up.
Once we know the direction, we want to know what is the strength of that direction. This point is very valuable for an option trader. This is where this indicator brings value.
Please note that by looking at these indicators in isolation one can get a sense of direction or a sense of strength of the direction. But, when you combine them, you get whether the direction move is with strength or not. If you are into option trading, you will clearly understand the rational behind it when you look at the trading rules provided in this description. For example if one knows that the direction is bullish (which one can potentially get from RSI or DMI), one can either buy a call or sell a put. But one knows that not only the direction is bullish, but it has the right acceleration (strength of the momentum), then one will assign higher probability of higher profit from buying call than from selling put.
To summarize we have combined indicators to achieve the following
1. Get confirmation from two different indicators on the direction of the price movement (RSI and DMI)
2. Confirm that the direction is clear (Price relative to EMA)
3. Combine with the strength of the direction (ADX)
Direction, clarity of the direction and the strength of the directional movement is a valuable trading indicator in our opinion.
Suggested trading rules
1. Short strangle strategy when the trend is neutral with one's usual option selling quantity. Equal quantity on put and call.
2. Full quantity short put and half quantity short call when the trend is bullish.
3. Full quantity short put and call long when the indicator is very bullish.
4. Vice versa for bearish ( full call short, half put short) and very bearish (full call short, put long)
Suggested to use 5 min timeframe for scalping, 15 min for intraday positions, 1 hour for weekly and monthly positions, and daily/weekly for investments.
The value of this indicator oscillates between +6 to -6. You can tweak the range for V bullish, bullish, bearish, and v bearish. The values in between will default to the neutral zone.
Disclaimers:
1. While the creator has used this in the live market, no claim is being made on its effectiveness or profit making ability. Please use it for trading only after you have tested it and are satisfied.
2. There may be thousands or millions of better trader in this world than the creator of this script. The creator makes no claim of his intelligence or trading ability.
3. The creator has no intention of selling this particular script now or in future. This is purely for community use and there's no intention to make any monetary profit from it.
4. The creator is not requesting or soliciting anyone to like or promote this script. The creator is also not asking anyone to give him any business now or in future even if they like this script and benefit from it.
Fib Pivot Points HLThis TradingView indicator allows users to select a specific timeframe (TF) and then analyzes the high, low, and closing prices from the past period within that TF to calculate a central pivot point. The pivot point is determined using the formula (High + Close + Low) / 3, providing a key level around which the market is expected to pivot or change direction.
In addition to the central pivot point, the indicator enhances its utility by incorporating Fibonacci levels. These levels are calculated based on the range from the low to the high of the selected timeframe. For instance, a Fibonacci level like R0.38 would be calculated by adding 38% of the high-low range to the pivot point, giving traders potential resistance levels above the pivot.
Key features of this indicator include:
Timeframe Selection: Users can choose their desired timeframe, such as weekly, daily, etc., for analysis.
Pivot Point Calculation: The indicator calculates the pivot point based on the previous period's high, low, and closing prices within the selected timeframe.
Fibonacci Levels: Adds Fibonacci retracement levels to the pivot point, offering traders additional layers of potential support and resistance based on the natural Fibonacci sequence.
This indicator is particularly useful for traders looking to identify potential turning points in the market and key levels of support and resistance based on historical price action and the Fibonacci sequence, which is widely regarded for its ability to predict market movements.
Example:
Suppose you're analyzing the EUR/USD currency pair using this indicator with a weekly timeframe setting. The previous week's price action showed a high of 1.2100, a low of 1.1900, and the week closed at 1.2000.
Using the formula ( High + Close + Low ) / 3 (High+Close+Low)/3, the pivot point would be calculated as ( 1.2100 + 1.2000 + 1.1900 ) / 3 = 1.2000. Thus, the central pivot point for the current week is at 1.2000.
The range from the low to the high is 1.2100 − 1.1900 = 0.0200 1.2100−1.1900=0.0200.
To calculate a specific Fibonacci level, such as R0.38, you would add 38% of the high-low range to the pivot point: 1.2000 + ( 0.0200 ∗ 0.38 ) = 1.2076 1.2000+(0.0200∗0.38)=1.2076. Thus, the R0.38 Fibonacci resistance level is at 1.2076.
Similarly, you can calculate other Fibonacci levels such as S0.38 (Support level at 38% retracement) by subtracting 38% of the high-low range from the pivot point.
Traders can use the pivot point as a reference for the market's directional bias: prices above the pivot point suggest bullish sentiment, while prices below indicate bearish sentiment. The Fibonacci levels act as potential stepping stones for price movements, offering strategic points for entry, exit, or placing stop-loss orders.
Bitcoin Momentum StrategyThis is a very simple long-only strategy I've used since December 2022 to manage my Bitcoin position.
I'm sharing it as an open-source script for other traders to learn from the code and adapt it to their liking if they find the system concept interesting.
General Overview
Always do your own research and backtesting - this script is not intended to be traded blindly (no script should be) and I've done limited testing on other markets beyond Ethereum and BTC, it's just a template to tweak and play with and make into one's own.
The results shown in the strategy tester are from Bitcoin's inception so as to get a large sample size of trades, and potential returns have diminished significantly as BTC has grown to become a mega cap asset, but the script includes a date filter for backtesting and it has still performed solidly in recent years (speaking from personal experience using it myself - DYOR with the date filter).
The main advantage of this system in my opinion is in limiting the max drawdown significantly versus buy & hodl. Theoretically much better returns can be made by just holding, but that's also a good way to lose 70%+ of your capital in the inevitable bear markets (also speaking from experience).
In saying all of that, the future is fundamentally unknowable and past results in no way guarantee future performance.
System Concept:
Capture as much Bitcoin upside volatility as possible while side-stepping downside volatility as quickly as possible.
The system uses a simple but clever momentum-style trailing stop technique I learned from one of my trading mentors who uses this approach on momentum/trend-following stock market systems.
Basically, the system "ratchets" up the stop-loss to be much tighter during high bearish volatility to protect open profits from downside moves, but loosens the stop loss during sustained bullish momentum to let the position ride.
It is invested most of the time, unless BTC is trading below its 20-week EMA in which case it stays in cash/USDT to avoid holding through bear markets. It only trades one position (no pyramiding) and does not trade short, but can easily be tweaked to do whatever you like if you know what you're doing in Pine.
Default parameters:
HTF: Weekly Chart
EMA: 20-Period
ATR: 5-period
Bar Lookback: 7
Entry Rule #1:
Bitcoin's current price must be trading above its higher-timeframe EMA (Weekly 20 EMA).
Entry Rule #2:
Bitcoin must not be in 'caution' condition (no large bearish volatility swings recently).
Enter at next bar's open if conditions are met and we are not already involved in a trade.
"Caution" Condition:
Defined as true if BTC's recent 7-bar swing high minus current bar's low is > 1.5x ATR, or Daily close < Daily 20-EMA.
Trailing Stop:
Stop is trailed 1 ATR from recent swing high, or 20% of ATR if in caution condition (ie. 0.2 ATR).
Exit on next bar open upon a close below stop loss.
I typically use a limit order to open & exit trades as close to the open price as possible to reduce slippage, but the strategy script uses market orders.
I've never had any issues getting filled on limit orders close to the market price with BTC on the Daily timeframe, but if the exchange has relatively low slippage I've found market orders work fine too without much impact on the results particularly since BTC has consistently remained above $20k and highly liquid.
Cost of Trading:
The script uses no leverage and a default total round-trip commission of 0.3% which is what I pay on my exchange based on their tier structure, but this can vary widely from exchange to exchange and higher commission fees will have a significantly negative impact on realized gains so make sure to always input the correct theoretical commission cost when backtesting any script.
Static slippage is difficult to estimate in the strategy tester given the wide range of prices & liquidity BTC has experienced over the years and it largely depends on position size, I set it to 150 points per buy or sell as BTC is currently very liquid on the exchange I trade and I use limit orders where possible to enter/exit positions as close as possible to the market's open price as it significantly limits my slippage.
But again, this can vary a lot from exchange to exchange (for better or worse) and if BTC volatility is high at the time of execution this can have a negative impact on slippage and therefore real performance, so make sure to adjust it according to your exchange's tendencies.
Tax considerations should also be made based on short-term trade frequency if crypto profits are treated as a CGT event in your region.
Summary:
A simple, but effective and fairly robust system that achieves the goals I set for it.
From my preliminary testing it appears it may also work on altcoins but it might need a bit of tweaking/loosening with the trailing stop distance as the default parameters are designed to work with Bitcoin which obviously behaves very differently to smaller cap assets.
Good luck out there!
Previous Key Levels [UAlgo]🔶Description:
"Previous Key Levels " serves as an indicator to identify and visualize previous key levels in the price action of financial instruments. These key levels include previous highs, lows, equilibrium points, and open prices across different timeframes such as daily, weekly, and monthly.
🔶Key Features:
Users have the flexibility to customize the visibility of these levels based on their preferences, including options to show only the last key levels or display all previous levels. The indicator also offers visual customization features allowing users to adjust colors for various elements such as highs, lows, equilibrium, and open prices.
Customizable Timeframes: Users can select their preferred timeframe (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) to analyze previous key levels.
Flexible Visibility Options: Users can choose to display only the last key levels or show all previous levels based on their trading strategies.
Visual Customization: The indicator provides customizable color options for visual elements such as highs, lows, equilibrium, and open prices, allowing users to tailor the display to their preferences.
Disclaimer:
Not Financial Advice: This script is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research and/or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions based on this script.
Risk of Loss: Trading in financial markets involves risk of loss, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Users of this script should be aware of the risks involved in trading and should only trade with capital they can afford to lose.
No Guarantees: There is no guarantee of success or profitability when using this script. Market conditions can change rapidly, and trading results may vary.
Use at Own Risk: The author of this script (UAlgo) does not assume any responsibility for losses incurred as a result of using this script. Traders use this script at their own risk and discretion.
Multi VWAP from Gaps [MW]Multi VWAP from Gaps
Introduction
The Multi VWAP from Gaps tool extends the concept of using the Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price, popularized by its founder, Brian Shannon, founder of AlphaTrends. It creates automatic AVWAPS for anchor points originating at the biggest gaps of the week, month, quarter and year. Currently, most standard VWAP tools allow users to place custom anchored VWAPs, but the routine of doing this for every equity being watched can become cumbersome. This tool makes that process multi-times easier. Considering that large gaps can represent a shift in market structure, this tool provides unique and immediate insight into how past daily price gaps can and have affected price action.
Settings
LABEL SETTINGS
Show Biggest Gap of Week | Month | Quarter : Toggle labels that identify the location of the biggest gaps for the selected time period.
Show Big Labels : Toggle labels from showing the date and gap size to just showing a single letter (W/M/Q/Y) designating the time period that the gap is from.
Hide All Labels : Turn labels off and on.
MAX VWAP LINES
Max Weekly | Monthly | Quarterly | Yearly Lines : How many VWAP lines, starting from today, should be shown for the specified time period. Max: 5
SHOW VWAP LINES
Show Weekly | Monthly | Quarterly | Yearly Lines : This feature allows you to remove lines for the specified time period.
Calculations
This indicator does not provide buy or sell signals. It is simply the VWAP calculated starting from an “anchor point”, or start time. It is calculated by the summation of Price x Volume / Volume for the period starting at the anchor point.
How to Interpret
According to Brian Shannon, VWAP is an objective measure of what the average trader has paid for a particular equity over a given period, and is the value that large institutional investors frequently use as a trade signal. Therefore, by definition, when the price is above an AVWAP, buyers are in control for that period of time. Likewise, if the price is below the AVWAP, sellers are in control for that period of time.
VWAPs that coincide with important events, such as FOMC meetings, CPI reports, earnings reports, have added significance. In many cases, these events can cause gaps to happen in day-to-day price movement, and can affect market structure going forward.
Practically speaking, price action can tend to change direction when a significant VWAP is hit, voiding buy and sell signals. Like moving averages, this indicator can show, in real-time, how a buy or sell signal should be interpreted. A significant AVWAP line is a point of interest, and can serve as strong support or resistance, because large institutions may be using those values for entries or exits. For a great analysis of how to use AVWAP, visit the AlphaTrends channel on Youtube here or you can buy Brian Shannon’s “Anchored VWAP” book on Amazon.
Other Usage Notes and Limitations
It's important for traders to be aware of the limitations of any indicator and to use them as part of a broader, well-rounded trading strategy that includes risk management, fundamental analysis, and other tools that can help with reducing false signals, determining trend direction, and providing additional confirmation for a trade decision. Diversifying strategies and not relying solely on one type of indicator or analysis can help mitigate some of these risks.
Additionally, in order to build the VWAP calculations, past data is needed that may not be available on shorter timeframes. The workaround is that for some longer-term VWAP lines on shorter timeframes, you may see less than the total of lines that you selected in settings. This is particularly the case with quarterly VWAP lines on the 5 minute timeframe for some equities.
Acknowledgements
This script uses the MarketHolidays library by @Protervus. Also, for debugging, the JavaScript-style Debug Console by @algotraderdev was invaluable. Special thanks to @antsmuzic for helping review and debug the script. And, of course, without Brian Shannon's books, videos, and interviews, this indicator would would not have happened.
ROCE with 3-Year EMAThis Pine Script indicator, "3-Year EMA of Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)," is designed for investors and traders who incorporate both fundamental and technical analysis in their market approach. ROCE is a crucial metric for evaluating the efficiency and profitability of a company's capital employment. Our script enhances this analysis by overlaying a 3-year Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the ROCE, allowing users to compare current performance against a longer-term trend.
Key Features:
ROCE Calculation: The script calculates the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) using EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) for the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) and Capital Employed (Total Assets minus Short Term Debt) for the Fiscal Year (FY). This calculation provides a snapshot of how effectively a company is using its capital to generate profits.
3-Year EMA Overlay: The script features a 3-year EMA of the ROCE, providing a smoothed, long-term trend line. This EMA helps in identifying broader trends in a company's operational efficiency and profitability, making it easier to spot deviations from the historical norm.
Customizable for Different Data Frequencies: Whether your data is quarterly, monthly, or weekly, the script is adaptable. The length of the EMA is adjustable to suit the data frequency, ensuring accurate representation over a 3-year period.
Visualization: The ROCE and its 3-year EMA are plotted with distinct colors for easy comparison and analysis. This visual representation aids in quickly assessing the company's current performance against its historical trend.
Customization: Users can adjust the EMA length to match the frequency of their data (e.g., 12 for quarterly, 36 for monthly, 156 for weekly data).
Usage Tips:
Best used on companies with stable and consistent reporting.
Combine with other fundamental and technical indicators fo
r comprehensive analysis.
Disclaimer: This script is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Anchored Progressive RangeIntroducing a simple script based off of the idea that ranges form from a point of origin that can be measured and produce interesting analysis indicating potential opportunities.
Specifically I use this on daily and weekly anchorage to find mid range retracements once range has developed.
Configure internal multipliers to provide potentially useful measurements between range high and mid point, as well as mid point and range low. By default it's standard .25 based multipliers but one could adjust to fib multipliers such as .615, .65, etc.
Anchored open price is plotted as continuous line as often times reversals will occur and open price will be tested on daily, weekly, monthly timeframes.
Once a bit of range is established and there's a rapid adjustment of range mid up or down, these can signal interesting breakouts. Also areas where the range stays flat due to no new high or low being printed can be indicative of consolidation, etc.
I've tested this with heikin ashi, renko, bars, line and regular candles through various markets such as futures, etfs and stocks and everything appears to anchor correctly, please feedback if experiencing otherwise.
I hope you enjoy this indicator as much as I enjoyed creating it, happy trading!
Short Interest Tracker [SS]This is a simple indicator that is designed to provide you with a synopsis of short interest on the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes.
How it works:
It pulls FINRA ticker data on short volume for whichever ticker you are on. It works with all tickers provided they are listed on FINRA (which is all tickers).
It will not work with futures, for futures, you would want to use a COT-based indicator, but for indices and equities, this indicator will provide you with the short volume information.
What it shows:
It breaks short volume down into current short volume, the 14-period SMA of short volume over the day, week and month, it also provides you with a short volume to SMA ratio. This is Short Volume divided by the SMA. Anything below 1 is good, it means short interest is low. Anything above 1 is not good, it means that short volume is above the SMA.
It also will show you the weekly, daily and monthly short volume change.
And last but not least, it will tell you whether short interest is falling, rising or steady. How it does this is by tracking whether the SMA is increasing, decreasing or stagnant.
Customization:
You can customize the SMA length and the assessment of whether short volume is increasing or decreasing. The default SMA length is 14 and the default assessment of rising/falling short volume is 4. This means, short volume has to rise or fall over a 4-period timeframe for it to register. So on the week, if it displays short volume increasing, it means that, over the past 4 weeks, the sma has steadily risen. Inverse if it decreases. If you want it to be more sensitive, you can reduce it to 2 or 3. If you want it to be more strict, you can increase it to 5 or 6.
NOTE:
If the volume information for a ticker is not available, it will return a runtime error indicating as such.
And that's the indicator!
I wanted something similar to COT data for equities and indices, so this was my attempt to bridge that gap.
Hope you enjoy and find it useful! Leave your suggestions below.
Take care everyone!
PB wTF50What kind of traders/investors are we?
We are trend followers, always on the lookout for the next big move in the market. Our scripts are meticulously crafted for higher timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) aiming to capture the large market trends.
What does this script do?
The Pb wTF50 script simplifies the complex world of investing by colour-coding bars to indicate the trend direction. Green bars signify a bullish trend, red indicates a bearish trend, and a combination of both signifies a sideways market. This visual representation ensures investors can quickly gauge the market's direction and act accordingly.
How is the PB wTF50 produced?
The PB wTF50 script employs the simple moving averages (SMAs) as its backbone. Bars positioned above both the SMAs turn green, indicating a bullish trend. Conversely, bars below these SMAs turn red, signalling a bearish trend.
What is the best timeframe to use the script?
The PB wTF50 script is designed for the weekly timeframe. This ensures that traders and investors are aligned with the long-term market trend, filtering out the noise of shorter timeframes.
What makes this script unique?
The challenges of identifying the onset, progression, and culmination of trends are well-known in the investing community. The PbF script addresses these challenges head-on.
The PB wTF50 is not a lagging indicator. It is aligned with price movement, which helps investors and traders focus on what the asset’s price is doing. The asset’s price is the primary indicator of its direction.
Lagging indicators can be used alongside the PB wTF50 to confirm the asset’s direction.
The PBwTF50 continues to remain green during extended periods of bullish pullbacks and red during extended periods of bearish pullbacks. This helps investors and traders hold positions during corrections in the market.
When interacting with OB/OS zones, investors and traders are positioned to align with the trend and ignore short-term fluctuations against the trend.
The PB wTF50 can be used to enter additional positions, also known as compounding, when an asset’s price has pulled back into an OS zone, but the trend filter has remained green in a bull trend/OB zone, but the trend filter has remained red in a bear trend.
In essence, the PB wTF50 script is a trend filter that gives investors and traders the ability to apply discretion with the start and end of long-term trends as they develop.
