Kernel Channel [BackQuant]Kernel Channel
A non-parametric, kernel-weighted trend channel that adapts to local structure, smooths noise without lagging like moving averages, and highlights volatility compressions, expansions, and directional bias through a flexible choice of kernels, band types, and squeeze logic.
What this is
This indicator builds a full trend channel using kernel regression rather than classical averaging. Instead of a simple moving average or exponential weighting, the midline is computed as a kernel-weighted expectation of past values. This allows it to adapt to local shape, give more weight to nearby bars, and reduce distortion from outliers.
You can think of it as a sliding local smoother where you define both the “window” of influence (Window Length) and the “locality strength” (Bandwidth). The result is a flexible midline with optional upper and lower bands derived from kernel-weighted ATR or kernel-weighted standard deviation, letting you visualize volatility in a structurally consistent way.
Three plotting modes help demonstrate this difference:
When the midline is shown alone, you get a smooth, adaptive baseline that behaves almost like a regression moving average, as shown in this view:
When full channels are enabled, you see how standard deviation reacts to local structure with dynamically widening and tightening bands, a mode illustrated here:
When ATR mode is chosen instead of StdDev, band width reflects breadth of movement rather than variance, creating a volatility-aware envelope like the example here:
Why kernels
Classical moving averages allocate fixed weights. Kernels let the user define weighting shape:
Epanechnikov — emphasizes bars near the current bar, fades fast, stable and smooth.
Triangular — linear decay, simple and responsive.
Laplacian — exponential decay from the current point, sharper reactivity.
Cosine — gentle periodic decay, balanced smoothness for trend filters.
Using these in combination with a bandwidth parameter gives fine control over smoothness vs responsiveness. Smaller bandwidths give sharper local sensitivity, larger bandwidths give smoother curvature.
How it works (core logic)
The indicator computes three building blocks:
1) Kernel-weighted midline
For every bar, a sliding window looks back Window Length bars. Each bar in this window receives a kernel weight depending on:
its index distance from the present
the chosen kernel shape
the bandwidth parameter (locality)
Weights form the denominator, weighted values form the numerator, and the resulting ratio is the kernel regression mean. This midline is the central trend.
2) Kernel-based width
You choose one of two band types:
Kernel ATR — ATR values are kernel-averaged, producing a smooth, volatility-based width that is not dependent on variance. Ideal for directional trend channels and regime separation.
Kernel StdDev — local variance around the midline is computed through kernel weighting. This produces a true statistical envelope that narrows in quiet periods and widens in noisy areas.
Width is scaled using Band Multiplier , controlling how far the envelope extends.
3) Upper and lower channels
Provided midline and width exist, the channel edges are:
Upper = midline + bandMult × width
Lower = midline − bandMult × width
These create smooth structures around price that adapt continuously.
Plotting modes
The indicator supports multiple visual styles depending on what you want to emphasize.
When only the midline is displayed, you get a pure kernel trend: a smooth regression-like curve that reacts to local structure while filtering noise, demonstrated here: This provides a clean read on direction and slope.
With full channels enabled, the behavior of the bands becomes visible. Standard deviation mode creates elastic boundaries that tighten during compressions and widen during turbulence, which you can see in the band-focused demonstration: This helps identify expansion events, volatility clusters, and breakouts.
ATR mode shifts interpretation from statistical variance to raw movement amplitude. This makes channels less sensitive to outliers and more consistent across trend phases, as shown in this ATR variation example: This mode is particularly useful for breakout systems and bar-range regimes.
Regime detection and bar coloring
The slope of the midline defines directional bias:
Up-slope → green
Down-slope → red
Flat → gray
A secondary regime filter compares close to the channel:
Trend Up Strong — close above upper band and midline rising.
Trend Down Strong — close below lower band and midline falling.
Trend Up Weak — close between midline and upper band with rising slope.
Trend Down Weak — close between lower band and midline with falling slope.
Compression mode — squeeze conditions.
Bar coloring is optional and can be toggled for cleaner charts.
Squeeze logic
The indicator includes non-standard squeeze detection based on relative width , defined as:
width / |midline|
This gives a dimensionless measure of how “tight” or “loose” the channel is, normalized for trend level.
A rolling window evaluates the percentile rank of current width relative to past behavior. If the width is in the lowest X% of its last N observations, the script flags a squeeze environment. This highlights compression regions that may precede breakouts or regime shifts.
Deviation highlighting
When using Kernel StdDev mode, you may enable deviation flags that highlight bars where price moves outside the channel:
Above upper band → bullish momentum overextension
Below lower band → bearish momentum overextension
This is turned off in ATR mode because ATR widths do not represent distributional variance.
Alerts included
Kernel Channel Long — midline turns up.
Kernel Channel Short — midline turns down.
Price Crossed Midline — crossover or crossunder of the midline.
Price Above Upper — early momentum expansion.
Price Below Lower — downward volatility expansion.
These help automate regime changes and breakout detection.
How to use it
Trend identification
The midline acts as a bias filter. Rising midline means trend strength upward, falling midline means downward behavior. The channel width contextualizes confidence.
Breakout anticipation
Kernel StdDev compressions highlight areas where price is coiling. Breakouts often follow narrow relative width. ATR mode provides structural expansion cues that are smooth and robust.
Mean reversion
StdDev mode is suitable for fade setups. Moves to outer bands during low volatility often revert to the midline.
Continuation logic
If price breaks above the upper band while midline is rising, the indicator flags strong directional expansion. Same logic for breakdowns on the lower band.
Volatility characterization
Kernel ATR maps raw bar movements and is excellent for identifying regime shifts in markets where variance is unstable.
Tuning guidance
For smoother long-term trend tracking
Larger window (150–300).
Moderate bandwidth (1.0–2.0).
Epanechnikov or Cosine kernel.
ATR mode for stable envelopes.
For swing trading / short-term structure
Window length around 50–100.
Bandwidth 0.6–1.2.
Triangular for speed, Laplacian for sharper reactions.
StdDev bands for precise volatility compression.
For breakout systems
Smaller bandwidth for sharp local detection.
ATR mode for stable envelopes.
Enable squeeze highlighting for identifying setups early.
For mean-reversion systems
Use StdDev bands.
Moderate window length.
Highlight deviations to locate overextended bars.
Settings overview
Kernel Settings
Source
Window Length
Bandwidth
Kernel Type (Epanechnikov, Triangular, Laplacian, Cosine)
Channel Width
Band Type (Kernel ATR or Kernel StdDev)
Band Multiplier
Visuals
Show Bands
Color Bars By Regime
Highlight Squeeze Periods
Highlight Deviation
Lookback and Percentile settings
Colors for uptrend, downtrend, squeeze, flat
Trading applications
Trend filtering — trade only in direction of the midline slope.
Breakout confirmation — expansion outside the bands while slope agrees.
Squeeze timing — compression periods often precede the next directional leg.
Volatility-aware stops — ATR mode makes channel edges suitable for adaptive stop placement.
Structural swing mapping — StdDev bands help locate midline pullbacks vs distributional extremes.
Bias rotation — bar coloring highlights when regime shifts occur.
Notes
The Kernel Channel is not a signal generator by itself, but a structural map. It helps classify trend direction, volatility environment, distribution shape, and compression cycles. Combine it with your entry and exit framework, risk parameters, and higher-timeframe confirmation.
It is designed to behave consistently across markets, to avoid the bluntness of classical averages, and to reveal subtle curvature in price that traditional channels miss. Adjust kernel type, bandwidth, and band source to match the noise profile of your instrument, then use squeeze logic and deviation highlighting to guide timing.
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Savitzky-Golay Filter (SGF)The Savitzky-Golay Filter (SGF) is a digital filter that performs local polynomial regression on a series of values to determine the smoothed value for each point. Developed by Abraham Savitzky and Marcel Golay in 1964, it is particularly effective at preserving higher moments of the data while reducing noise. This implementation provides a practical adaptation for financial time series, offering superior preservation of peaks, valleys, and other important market structures that might be distorted by simpler moving averages.
## Core Concepts
* **Local polynomial fitting:** Fits a polynomial of specified order to a sliding window of data points
* **Moment preservation:** Maintains higher statistical moments (peaks, valleys, inflection points)
* **Optimized coefficients:** Uses pre-computed coefficients for common polynomial orders
* **Adaptive weighting:** Weight distribution varies based on polynomial order and window size
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for preserving significant price movements while filtering noise
The core innovation of the Savitzky-Golay filter is its ability to smooth data while preserving important features that are often flattened by other filtering methods. This makes it especially valuable for technical analysis where maintaining the shape of price patterns is crucial.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Window Size | 11 | Number of points used in local fitting (must be odd) | Increase for smoother output, decrease for better feature preservation |
| Polynomial Order | 2 | Order of fitting polynomial (2 or 4) | Use 2 for general smoothing, 4 for better peak preservation |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for more stable fitting |
**Pro Tip:** A window size of 11 with polynomial order 2 provides a good balance between smoothing and feature preservation. For sharper peaks and valleys, use order 4 with a smaller window size.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
The filter fits a polynomial of specified order to a moving window of price data. The smoothed value at each point is computed from this local fit, effectively removing noise while preserving the underlying shape of the data.
**Technical formula:**
For a window of size N and polynomial order M, the filtered value is:
y = Σ(c_i × x )
Where:
- c_i are the pre-computed filter coefficients
- x are the input values in the window
- Coefficients depend on window size N and polynomial order M
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** The implementation uses optimized coefficient calculations for orders 2 and 4, which cover most practical applications while maintaining computational efficiency.
## Interpretation Details
The Savitzky-Golay filter can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Pattern recognition:** Preserves chart patterns while removing noise
* **Peak detection:** Maintains amplitude and width of significant peaks
* **Trend analysis:** Smooths price movement without distorting important transitions
* **Divergence trading:** Better preservation of local maxima and minima
* **Volatility analysis:** Accurate representation of price movement dynamics
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Computational complexity:** More intensive than simple moving averages
* **Edge effects:** First and last few points may show end effects
* **Parameter sensitivity:** Performance depends on appropriate window size and order selection
* **Data requirements:** Needs sufficient points for polynomial fitting
* **Complementary tools:** Best used with volume analysis and momentum indicators
## References
* Savitzky, A., Golay, M.J.E. "Smoothing and Differentiation of Data by Simplified Least Squares Procedures," Analytical Chemistry, 1964
* Press, W.H. et al. "Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computing," Chapter 14
* Schafer, R.W. "What Is a Savitzky-Golay Filter?" IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, 2011
TimeSeriesBenchmarkMeasuresLibrary "TimeSeriesBenchmarkMeasures"
Time Series Benchmark Metrics. \
Provides a comprehensive set of functions for benchmarking time series data, allowing you to evaluate the accuracy, stability, and risk characteristics of various models or strategies. The functions cover a wide range of statistical measures, including accuracy metrics (MAE, MSE, RMSE, NRMSE, MAPE, SMAPE), autocorrelation analysis (ACF, ADF), and risk measures (Theils Inequality, Sharpness, Resolution, Coverage, and Pinball).
___
Reference:
- github.com .
- medium.com .
- www.salesforce.com .
- towardsdatascience.com .
- github.com .
mae(actual, forecasts)
In statistics, mean absolute error (MAE) is a measure of errors between paired observations expressing the same phenomenon. Examples of Y versus X include comparisons of predicted versus observed, subsequent time versus initial time, and one technique of measurement versus an alternative technique of measurement.
Parameters:
actual (array) : List of actual values.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts values.
Returns: - Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
___
Reference:
- en.wikipedia.org .
- The Orange Book of Machine Learning - Carl McBride Ellis .
mse(actual, forecasts)
The Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a measure of the quality of an estimator. As it is derived from the square of Euclidean distance, it is always a positive value that decreases as the error approaches zero.
Parameters:
actual (array) : List of actual values.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts values.
Returns: - Mean Squared Error (MSE).
___
Reference:
- en.wikipedia.org .
rmse(targets, forecasts, order, offset)
Calculates the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) between target observations and forecasts. RMSE is a standard measure of the differences between values predicted by a model and the values actually observed.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
order (int) : Model order parameter that determines the starting position in the targets array, `default=0`.
offset (int) : Forecast offset related to target, `default=0`.
Returns: - RMSE value.
nmrse(targets, forecasts, order, offset)
Normalised Root Mean Squared Error.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
order (int) : Model order parameter that determines the starting position in the targets array, `default=0`.
offset (int) : Forecast offset related to target, `default=0`.
Returns: - NRMSE value.
rmse_interval(targets, forecasts)
Root Mean Squared Error for a set of interval windows. Computes RMSE by converting interval forecasts (with min/max bounds) into point forecasts using the mean of the interval bounds, then compares against actual target values.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - RMSE value for the combined interval list.
mape(targets, forecasts)
Mean Average Percentual Error.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
Returns: - MAPE value.
smape(targets, forecasts, mode)
Symmetric Mean Average Percentual Error. Calculates the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) between actual targets and forecasts. MAPE is a common metric for evaluating forecast accuracy, expressed as a percentage, lower values indicate a better forecast accuracy.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
mode (int) : Type of method: default=0:`sum(abs(Fi-Ti)) / sum(Fi+Ti)` , 1:`mean(abs(Fi-Ti) / ((Fi + Ti) / 2))` , 2:`mean(abs(Fi-Ti) / (abs(Fi) + abs(Ti))) * 100`
Returns: - SMAPE value.
mape_interval(targets, forecasts)
Mean Average Percentual Error for a set of interval windows.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - MAPE value for the combined interval list.
acf(data, k)
Autocorrelation Function (ACF) for a time series at a specified lag.
Parameters:
data (array) : Sample data of the observations.
k (int) : The lag period for which to calculate the autocorrelation. Must be a non-negative integer.
Returns: - The autocorrelation value at the specified lag, ranging from -1 to 1.
___
The autocorrelation function measures the linear dependence between observations in a time series
at different time lags. It quantifies how well the series correlates with itself at different
time intervals, which is useful for identifying patterns, seasonality, and the appropriate
lag structure for time series models.
ACF values close to 1 indicate strong positive correlation, values close to -1 indicate
strong negative correlation, and values near 0 indicate no linear correlation.
___
Reference:
- statisticsbyjim.com
acf_multiple(data, k)
Autocorrelation function (ACF) for a time series at a set of specified lags.
Parameters:
data (array) : Sample data of the observations.
k (array) : List of lag periods for which to calculate the autocorrelation. Must be a non-negative integer.
Returns: - List of ACF values for provided lags.
___
The autocorrelation function measures the linear dependence between observations in a time series
at different time lags. It quantifies how well the series correlates with itself at different
time intervals, which is useful for identifying patterns, seasonality, and the appropriate
lag structure for time series models.
ACF values close to 1 indicate strong positive correlation, values close to -1 indicate
strong negative correlation, and values near 0 indicate no linear correlation.
___
Reference:
- statisticsbyjim.com
adfuller(data, n_lag, conf)
: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity.
Parameters:
data (array) : Data series.
n_lag (int) : Maximum lag.
conf (string) : Confidence Probability level used to test for critical value, (`90%`, `95%`, `99%`).
Returns: - `adf` The test statistic.
- `crit` Critical value for the test statistic at the 10 % levels.
- `nobs` Number of observations used for the ADF regression and calculation of the critical values.
___
The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is used to determine whether a time series is stationary
or contains a unit root (non-stationary). The null hypothesis is that the series has a unit root
(is non-stationary), while the alternative hypothesis is that the series is stationary.
A stationary time series has statistical properties that do not change over time, making it
suitable for many time series forecasting models. If the test statistic is less than the
critical value, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude the series is stationary.
___
Reference:
- www.jstor.org
- en.wikipedia.org
theils_inequality(targets, forecasts)
Calculates Theil's Inequality Coefficient, a measure of forecast accuracy that quantifies the relative difference between actual and predicted values.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : Matrix with list of forecasts, ordered column wise.
Returns: - Theil's Inequality Coefficient value, value closer to 0 is better.
___
Theil's Inequality Coefficient is calculated as: `sqrt(Sum((y_i - f_i)^2)) / (sqrt(Sum(y_i^2)) + sqrt(Sum(f_i^2)))`
where `y_i` represents actual values and `f_i` represents forecast values.
This metric ranges from 0 to infinity, with 0 indicating perfect forecast accuracy.
___
Reference:
- en.wikipedia.org
sharpness(forecasts)
The average width of the forecast intervals across all observations, representing the sharpness or precision of the predictive intervals.
Parameters:
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - Sharpness The sharpness level, which is the average width of all prediction intervals across the forecast horizon.
___
Sharpness is an important metric for evaluating forecast quality. It measures how narrow or wide the
prediction intervals are. Higher sharpness (narrower intervals) indicates greater precision in the
forecast intervals, while lower sharpness (wider intervals) suggests less precision.
The sharpness metric is calculated as the mean of the interval widths across all observations, where
each interval width is the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the prediction interval.
Note: This function assumes that the forecasts matrix has at least 2 columns, with the first column
representing the lower bounds and the second column representing the upper bounds of prediction intervals.
___
Reference:
- Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts. otexts.com
resolution(forecasts)
Calculates the resolution of forecast intervals, measuring the average absolute difference between individual forecast interval widths and the overall sharpness measure.
Parameters:
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - The average absolute difference between individual forecast interval widths and the overall sharpness measure, representing the resolution of the forecasts.
___
Resolution is a key metric for evaluating forecast quality that measures the consistency of prediction
interval widths. It quantifies how much the individual forecast intervals vary from the average interval
width (sharpness). High resolution indicates that the forecast intervals are relatively consistent
across observations, while low resolution suggests significant variation in interval widths.
The resolution is calculated as the mean absolute deviation of individual interval widths from the
overall sharpness value. This provides insight into the uniformity of the forecast uncertainty
estimates across the forecast horizon.
Note: This function requires the forecasts matrix to have at least 2 columns (min, max) representing
the lower and upper bounds of prediction intervals.
___
Reference:
- (sites.stat.washington.edu)
- (www.jstor.org)
coverage(targets, forecasts)
Calculates the coverage probability, which is the percentage of target values that fall within the corresponding forecasted prediction intervals.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target values.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - Percent of target values that fall within their corresponding forecast intervals, expressed as a decimal value between 0 and 1 (or 0% and 100%).
___
Coverage probability is a crucial metric for evaluating the reliability of prediction intervals.
It measures how well the forecast intervals capture the actual observed values. An ideal forecast
should have a coverage probability close to the nominal confidence level (e.g., 90%, 95%, or 99%).
For example, if a 95% prediction interval is used, we expect approximately 95% of the actual
target values to fall within those intervals. If the coverage is significantly lower than the
nominal level, the intervals may be too narrow; if it's significantly higher, the intervals may
be too wide.
Note: This function requires the targets array and forecasts matrix to have the same number of
observations, and the forecasts matrix must have at least 2 columns (min, max) representing
the lower and upper bounds of prediction intervals.
___
Reference:
- (www.jstor.org)
pinball(tau, target, forecast)
Pinball loss function, measures the asymmetric loss for quantile forecasts.
Parameters:
tau (float) : The quantile level (between 0 and 1), where 0.5 represents the median.
target (float) : The actual observed value to compare against.
forecast (float) : The forecasted value.
Returns: - The Pinball loss value, which quantifies the distance between the forecast and target relative to the specified quantile level.
___
The Pinball loss function is specifically designed for evaluating quantile forecasts. It is
asymmetric, meaning it penalizes underestimates and overestimates differently depending on the
quantile level being evaluated.
For a given quantile τ, the loss function is defined as:
- If target >= forecast: (target - forecast) * τ
- If target < forecast: (forecast - target) * (1 - τ)
This loss function is commonly used in quantile regression and probabilistic forecasting
to evaluate how well forecasts capture specific quantiles of the target distribution.
___
Reference:
- (www.otexts.com)
pinball_mean(tau, targets, forecasts)
Calculates the mean pinball loss for quantile regression.
Parameters:
tau (float) : The quantile level (between 0 and 1), where 0.5 represents the median.
targets (array) : The actual observed values to compare against.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - The mean pinball loss value across all observations.
___
The pinball_mean() function computes the average Pinball loss across multiple observations,
making it suitable for evaluating overall forecast performance in quantile regression tasks.
This function leverages the asymmetric Pinball loss function to evaluate how well forecasts
capture specific quantiles of the target distribution. The choice of which column from the
forecasts matrix to use depends on the quantile level:
- For τ ≤ 0.5: Uses the first column (min) of forecasts
- For τ > 0.5: Uses the second column (max) of forecasts
This loss function is commonly used in quantile regression and probabilistic forecasting
to evaluate how well forecasts capture specific quantiles of the target distribution.
___
Reference:
- (www.otexts.com)
GaussianDistributionLibrary "GaussianDistribution"
This library defines a custom type `distr` representing a Gaussian (or other statistical) distribution.
It provides methods to calculate key statistical moments and scores, including mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, skewness, kurtosis, and Z-scores.
This library is useful for analyzing probability distributions in financial data.
Disclaimer:
I am not a mathematician, but I have implemented this library to the best of my understanding and capacity. Please be indulgent as I tried to translate statistical concepts into code as accurately as possible. Feedback, suggestions, and corrections are welcome to improve the reliability and robustness of this library.
mean(source, length)
Calculate the mean (average) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
Returns: Mean (μ)
stdev(source, length)
Calculate the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
Returns: Standard deviation (σ)
skewness(source, length, mean, stdev)
Calculate the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Skewness (γ₁)
skewness(source, length)
Overloaded skewness to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Skewness (γ₁)
mode(mean, stdev, skewness)
Estimate mode - Most frequent value in the distribution (approximation based on skewness)
Parameters:
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
@return Mode
mode(source, length)
Overloaded mode to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Mode
median(mean, stdev, skewness)
Estimate median - Middle value of the distribution (approximation)
Parameters:
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
@return Median
median(source, length)
Overloaded median to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Median
variance(stdev)
Calculate variance (σ²) - Square of the standard deviation
Parameters:
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Variance (σ²)
variance(source, length)
Overloaded variance to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Variance (σ²)
kurtosis(source, length, mean, stdev)
Calculate kurtosis (γ₂) - Degree of "tailedness" in the distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Kurtosis (γ₂)
kurtosis(source, length)
Overloaded kurtosis to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Kurtosis (γ₂)
normal_score(source, mean, stdev)
Calculate Z-score (standard score) assuming a normal distribution
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
@return Z-Score
normal_score(source, length)
Overloaded normal_score to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Z-Score
non_normal_score(source, mean, stdev, skewness, kurtosis)
Calculate adjusted Z-score considering skewness and kurtosis
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
mean (float) : the mean (average) of the distribution
stdev (float) : the standard deviation (σ) of the distribution
skewness (float) : the skewness (γ₁) of the distribution
kurtosis (float) : the "tailedness" in the distribution
@return Z-Score
non_normal_score(source, length)
Overloaded non_normal_score to calculate from source and length
Parameters:
source (float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
@return Z-Score
method init(this)
Initialize all statistical fields of the `distr` type
Namespace types: distr
Parameters:
this (distr)
method init(this, source, length)
Overloaded initializer to set source and length
Namespace types: distr
Parameters:
this (distr)
source (float)
length (int)
distr
Custom type to represent a Gaussian distribution
Fields:
source (series float) : Distribution source (typically a price or indicator series)
length (series int) : Window length for the distribution (must be >= 30 for meaningful statistics)
mode (series float) : Most frequent value in the distribution
median (series float) : Middle value separating the greater and lesser halves of the distribution
mean (series float) : μ (1st central moment) - Average of the distribution
stdev (series float) : σ or standard deviation (square root of the variance) - Measure of dispersion
variance (series float) : σ² (2nd central moment) - Squared standard deviation
skewness (series float) : γ₁ (3rd central moment) - Asymmetry of the distribution
kurtosis (series float) : γ₂ (4th central moment) - Degree of "tailedness" relative to a normal distribution
normal_score (series float) : Z-score assuming normal distribution
non_normal_score (series float) : Adjusted Z-score considering skewness and kurtosis
FunctionDiscreteCosineTransformLibrary "FunctionDiscreteCosineTransform"
Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT)
The Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) is a mathematical algorithm that converts a series of samples of a signal, typically in the time domain, into another domain called the frequency or spectral domain. It's commonly used for data compression and image/video coding applications such as JPEG and MPEG standards.
The DCT works by multiplying the input sequence with specific cosine functions that are pre-defined and then summing up these products to obtain a new series of values, which represent the frequency components of the original signal. The main advantage of the DCT over other transforms like Fourier Transform is its ability to handle non-stationary signals (i.e., signals with varying statistical properties) more effectively due to its localized basis functions.
In simple terms, the DCT can be thought of as a way to break down an image or video into different frequency components and then compress them without losing too much information. This compression technique is essential for efficient transmission and storage of digital media files over the internet or on devices with limited memory capacity.
~Mixtral4x7b
___
Reference:
lcamtuf.substack.com
dct(data, len)
Discrete Cosine Transform.
Parameters:
data (array) : Data source.
len (int) : Length of the sampling window.
Returns: List with frequency domain transformed information.
dct(data, len)
Discrete Cosine Transform.
Parameters:
data (float) : Data source.
len (int) : Length of the sampling window.
Returns: List with frequency domain transformed information.
idct(data, len)
Inverse Discrete Cosine Transform.
Parameters:
data (array) : Data source.
len (int) : Length of the sampling window.
Returns: List with time domain transformed information.
idct(data, len)
Inverse Discrete Cosine Transform.
Parameters:
data (float) : Data source.
len (int) : Length of the sampling window.
Returns: List with time domain transformed information.
Supertrend Advance Pullback StrategyHandbook for the Supertrend Advance Strategy
1. Introduction
Purpose of the Handbook:
The main purpose of this handbook is to serve as a comprehensive guide for traders and investors who are looking to explore and harness the potential of the Supertrend Advance Strategy. In the rapidly changing financial market, having the right tools and strategies at one's disposal is crucial. Whether you're a beginner hoping to dive into the world of trading or a seasoned investor aiming to optimize and diversify your portfolio, this handbook offers the insights and methodologies you need. By the end of this guide, readers should have a clear understanding of how the Supertrend Advance Strategy works, its benefits, potential pitfalls, and practical application in various trading scenarios.
Overview of the Supertrend Advance Pullback Strategy:
At its core, the Supertrend Advance Strategy is an evolution of the popular Supertrend Indicator. Designed to generate buy and sell signals in trending markets, the Supertrend Indicator has been a favorite tool for many traders around the world. The Advance Strategy, however, builds upon this foundation by introducing enhanced mechanisms, filters, and methodologies to increase precision and reduce false signals.
1. Basic Concept:
The Supertrend Advance Strategy relies on a combination of price action and volatility to determine the potential trend direction. By assessing the average true range (ATR) in conjunction with specific price points, this strategy aims to highlight the potential starting and ending points of market trends.
2. Methodology:
Unlike the traditional Supertrend Indicator, which primarily focuses on closing prices and ATR, the Advance Strategy integrates other critical market variables, such as volume, momentum oscillators, and perhaps even fundamental data, to validate its signals. This multidimensional approach ensures that the generated signals are more reliable and are less prone to market noise.
3. Benefits:
One of the main benefits of the Supertrend Advance Strategy is its ability to filter out false breakouts and minor price fluctuations, which can often lead to premature exits or entries in the market. By waiting for a confluence of factors to align, traders using this advanced strategy can increase their chances of entering or exiting trades at optimal points.
4. Practical Applications:
The Supertrend Advance Strategy can be applied across various timeframes, from intraday trading to swing trading and even long-term investment scenarios. Furthermore, its flexible nature allows it to be tailored to different asset classes, be it stocks, commodities, forex, or cryptocurrencies.
In the subsequent sections of this handbook, we will delve deeper into the intricacies of this strategy, offering step-by-step guidelines on its application, case studies, and tips for maximizing its efficacy in the volatile world of trading.
As you journey through this handbook, we encourage you to approach the Supertrend Advance Strategy with an open mind, testing and tweaking it as per your personal trading style and risk appetite. The ultimate goal is not just to provide you with a new tool but to empower you with a holistic strategy that can enhance your trading endeavors.
2. Getting Started
Navigating the financial markets can be a daunting task without the right tools. This section is dedicated to helping you set up the Supertrend Advance Strategy on one of the most popular charting platforms, TradingView. By following the steps below, you'll be able to integrate this strategy into your charts and start leveraging its insights in no time.
Setting up on TradingView:
TradingView is a web-based platform that offers a wide range of charting tools, social networking, and market data. Before you can apply the Supertrend Advance Strategy, you'll first need a TradingView account. If you haven't set one up yet, here's how:
1. Account Creation:
• Visit TradingView's official website.
• Click on the "Join for free" or "Sign up" button.
• Follow the registration process, providing the necessary details and setting up your login credentials.
2. Navigating the Dashboard:
• Once logged in, you'll be taken to your dashboard. Here, you'll see a variety of tools, including watchlists, alerts, and the main charting window.
• To begin charting, type in the name or ticker of the asset you're interested in the search bar at the top.
3. Configuring Chart Settings:
• Before integrating the Supertrend Advance Strategy, familiarize yourself with the chart settings. This can be accessed by clicking the 'gear' icon on the top right of the chart window.
• Adjust the chart type, time intervals, and other display settings to your preference.
Integrating the Strategy into a Chart:
Now that you're set up on TradingView, it's time to integrate the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
1. Accessing the Pine Script Editor:
• Located at the top-center of your screen, you'll find the "Pine Editor" tab. Click on it.
• This is where custom strategies and indicators are scripted or imported.
2. Loading the Supertrend Advance Strategy Script:
• Depending on whether you have the script or need to find it, there are two paths:
• If you have the script: Copy the Supertrend Advance Strategy script, and then paste it into the Pine Editor.
• If searching for the script: Click on the “Indicators” icon (looks like a flame) at the top of your screen, and then type “Supertrend Advance Strategy” in the search bar. If available, it will show up in the list. Simply click to add it to your chart.
3. Applying the Strategy:
• After pasting or selecting the Supertrend Advance Strategy in the Pine Editor, click on the “Add to Chart” button located at the top of the editor. This will overlay the strategy onto your main chart window.
4. Configuring Strategy Settings:
• Once the strategy is on your chart, you'll notice a small settings ('gear') icon next to its name in the top-left of the chart window. Click on this to access settings.
• Here, you can adjust various parameters of the Supertrend Advance Strategy to better fit your trading style or the specific asset you're analyzing.
5. Interpreting Signals:
• With the strategy applied, you'll now see buy/sell signals represented on your chart. Take time to familiarize yourself with how these look and behave over various timeframes and market conditions.
3. Strategy Overview
What is the Supertrend Advance Strategy?
The Supertrend Advance Strategy is a refined version of the classic Supertrend Indicator, which was developed to aid traders in spotting market trends. The strategy utilizes a combination of data points, including average true range (ATR) and price momentum, to generate buy and sell signals.
In essence, the Supertrend Advance Strategy can be visualized as a line that moves with the price. When the price is above the Supertrend line, it indicates an uptrend and suggests a potential buy position. Conversely, when the price is below the Supertrend line, it hints at a downtrend, suggesting a potential selling point.
Strategy Goals and Objectives:
1. Trend Identification: At the core of the Supertrend Advance Strategy is the goal to efficiently and consistently identify prevailing market trends. By recognizing these trends, traders can position themselves to capitalize on price movements in their favor.
2. Reducing Noise: Financial markets are often inundated with 'noise' - short-term price fluctuations that can mislead traders. The Supertrend Advance Strategy aims to filter out this noise, allowing for clearer decision-making.
3. Enhancing Risk Management: With clear buy and sell signals, traders can set more precise stop-loss and take-profit points. This leads to better risk management and potentially improved profitability.
4. Versatility: While primarily used for trend identification, the strategy can be integrated with other technical tools and indicators to create a comprehensive trading system.
Type of Assets/Markets to Apply the Strategy:
1. Equities: The Supertrend Advance Strategy is highly popular among stock traders. Its ability to capture long-term trends makes it particularly useful for those trading individual stocks or equity indices.
2. Forex: Given the 24-hour nature of the Forex market and its propensity for trends, the Supertrend Advance Strategy is a valuable tool for currency traders.
3. Commodities: Whether it's gold, oil, or agricultural products, commodities often move in extended trends. The strategy can help in identifying and capitalizing on these movements.
4. Cryptocurrencies: The volatile nature of cryptocurrencies means they can have pronounced trends. The Supertrend Advance Strategy can aid crypto traders in navigating these often tumultuous waters.
5. Futures & Options: Traders and investors in derivative markets can utilize the strategy to make more informed decisions about contract entries and exits.
It's important to note that while the Supertrend Advance Strategy can be applied across various assets and markets, its effectiveness might vary based on market conditions, timeframe, and the specific characteristics of the asset in question. As always, it's recommended to use the strategy in conjunction with other analytical tools and to backtest its effectiveness in specific scenarios before committing to trades.
4. Input Settings
Understanding and correctly configuring input settings is crucial for optimizing the Supertrend Advance Strategy for any specific market or asset. These settings, when tweaked correctly, can drastically impact the strategy's performance.
Grouping Inputs:
Before diving into individual input settings, it's important to group similar inputs. Grouping can simplify the user interface, making it easier to adjust settings related to a specific function or indicator.
Strategy Choice:
This input allows traders to select from various strategies that incorporate the Supertrend indicator. Options might include "Supertrend with RSI," "Supertrend with MACD," etc. By choosing a strategy, the associated input settings for that strategy become available.
Supertrend Settings:
1. Multiplier: Typically, a default value of 3 is used. This multiplier is used in the ATR calculation. Increasing it makes the Supertrend line further from prices, while decreasing it brings the line closer.
2. Period: The number of bars used in the ATR calculation. A common default is 7.
EMA Settings (Exponential Moving Average):
1. Period: Defines the number of previous bars used to calculate the EMA. Common periods are 9, 21, 50, and 200.
2. Source: Allows traders to choose which price (Open, Close, High, Low) to use in the EMA calculation.
RSI Settings (Relative Strength Index):
1. Length: Determines how many periods are used for RSI calculation. The standard setting is 14.
2. Overbought Level: The threshold at which the asset is considered overbought, typically set at 70.
3. Oversold Level: The threshold at which the asset is considered oversold, often at 30.
MACD Settings (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
1. Short Period: The shorter EMA, usually set to 12.
2. Long Period: The longer EMA, commonly set to 26.
3. Signal Period: Defines the EMA of the MACD line, typically set at 9.
CCI Settings (Commodity Channel Index):
1. Period: The number of bars used in the CCI calculation, often set to 20.
2. Overbought Level: Typically set at +100, denoting overbought conditions.
3. Oversold Level: Usually set at -100, indicating oversold conditions.
SL/TP Settings (Stop Loss/Take Profit):
1. SL Multiplier: Defines the multiplier for the average true range (ATR) to set the stop loss.
2. TP Multiplier: Defines the multiplier for the average true range (ATR) to set the take profit.
Filtering Conditions:
This section allows traders to set conditions to filter out certain signals. For example, one might only want to take buy signals when the RSI is below 30, ensuring they buy during oversold conditions.
Trade Direction and Backtest Period:
1. Trade Direction: Allows traders to specify whether they want to take long trades, short trades, or both.
2. Backtest Period: Specifies the time range for backtesting the strategy. Traders can choose from options like 'Last 6 months,' 'Last 1 year,' etc.
It's essential to remember that while default settings are provided for many of these tools, optimal settings can vary based on the market, timeframe, and trading style. Always backtest new settings on historical data to gauge their potential efficacy.
5. Understanding Strategy Conditions
Developing an understanding of the conditions set within a trading strategy is essential for traders to maximize its potential. Here, we delve deep into the logic behind these conditions, using the Supertrend Advance Strategy as our focal point.
Basic Logic Behind Conditions:
Every strategy is built around a set of conditions that provide buy or sell signals. The conditions are based on mathematical or statistical methods and are rooted in the study of historical price data. The fundamental idea is to recognize patterns or behaviors that have been profitable in the past and might be profitable in the future.
Buy and Sell Conditions:
1. Buy Conditions: Usually formulated around bullish signals or indicators suggesting upward price momentum.
2. Sell Conditions: Centered on bearish signals or indicators indicating downward price momentum.
Simple Strategy:
The simple strategy could involve using just the Supertrend indicator. Here:
• Buy: When price closes above the Supertrend line.
• Sell: When price closes below the Supertrend line.
Pullback Strategy:
This strategy capitalizes on price retracements:
• Buy: When the price retraces to the Supertrend line after a bullish signal and is supported by another bullish indicator.
• Sell: When the price retraces to the Supertrend line after a bearish signal and is confirmed by another bearish indicator.
Indicators Used:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
• Logic: EMA gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to current price movements. A shorter-period EMA crossing above a longer-period EMA can be a bullish sign, while the opposite is bearish.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
• Logic: RSI measures the magnitude of recent price changes to analyze overbought or oversold conditions. Values above 70 are typically considered overbought, and values below 30 are considered oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
• Logic: MACD assesses the relationship between two EMAs of a security’s price. The MACD line crossing above the signal line can be a bullish signal, while crossing below can be bearish.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index):
• Logic: CCI compares a security's average price change with its average price variation. A CCI value above +100 may mean the price is overbought, while below -100 might signify an oversold condition.
And others...
As the strategy expands or contracts, more indicators might be added or removed. The crucial point is to understand the core logic behind each, ensuring they align with the strategy's objectives.
Logic Behind Each Indicator:
1. EMA: Emphasizes recent price movements; provides dynamic support and resistance levels.
2. RSI: Indicates overbought and oversold conditions based on recent price changes.
3. MACD: Showcases momentum and direction of a trend by comparing two EMAs.
4. CCI: Measures the difference between a security's price change and its average price change.
Understanding strategy conditions is not just about knowing when to buy or sell but also about comprehending the underlying market dynamics that those conditions represent. As you familiarize yourself with each condition and indicator, you'll be better prepared to adapt and evolve with the ever-changing financial markets.
6. Trade Execution and Management
Trade execution and management are crucial aspects of any trading strategy. Efficient execution can significantly impact profitability, while effective management can preserve capital during adverse market conditions. In this section, we'll explore the nuances of position entry, exit strategies, and various Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) methodologies within the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
Position Entry:
Effective trade entry revolves around:
1. Timing: Enter at a point where the risk-reward ratio is favorable. This often corresponds to confirmatory signals from multiple indicators.
2. Volume Analysis: Ensure there's adequate volume to support the movement. Volume can validate the strength of a signal.
3. Confirmation: Use multiple indicators or chart patterns to confirm the entry point. For instance, a buy signal from the Supertrend indicator can be confirmed with a bullish MACD crossover.
Position Exit Strategies:
A successful exit strategy will lock in profits and minimize losses. Here are some strategies:
1. Fixed Time Exit: Exiting after a predetermined period.
2. Percentage-based Profit Target: Exiting after a certain percentage gain.
3. Indicator-based Exit: Exiting when an indicator gives an opposing signal.
Percentage-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): Set a fixed percentage below the entry price to limit potential losses.
• Example: A 2% SL on an entry at $100 would trigger a sell at $98.
• Take Profit (TP): Set a fixed percentage above the entry price to lock in gains.
• Example: A 5% TP on an entry at $100 would trigger a sell at $105.
Supertrend-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): Position the SL at the Supertrend line. If the price breaches this line, it could indicate a trend reversal.
• Take Profit (TP): One could set the TP at a point where the Supertrend line flattens or turns, indicating a possible slowdown in momentum.
Swing high/low-based SL/TP:
• Stop Loss (SL): For a long position, set the SL just below the recent swing low. For a short position, set it just above the recent swing high.
• Take Profit (TP): For a long position, set the TP near a recent swing high or resistance. For a short position, near a swing low or support.
And other methods...
1. Trailing Stop Loss: This dynamic SL adjusts with the price movement, locking in profits as the trade moves in your favor.
2. Multiple Take Profits: Divide the position into segments and set multiple TP levels, securing profits in stages.
3. Opposite Signal Exit: Exit when another reliable indicator gives an opposite signal.
Trade execution and management are as much an art as they are a science. They require a blend of analytical skill, discipline, and intuition. Regularly reviewing and refining your strategies, especially in light of changing market conditions, is crucial to maintaining consistent trading performance.
7. Visual Representations
Visual tools are essential for traders, as they simplify complex data into an easily interpretable format. Properly analyzing and understanding the plots on a chart can provide actionable insights and a more intuitive grasp of market conditions. In this section, we’ll delve into various visual representations used in the Supertrend Advance Strategy and their significance.
Understanding Plots on the Chart:
Charts are the primary visual aids for traders. The arrangement of data points, lines, and colors on them tell a story about the market's past, present, and potential future moves.
1. Data Points: These represent individual price actions over a specific timeframe. For instance, a daily chart will have data points showing the opening, closing, high, and low prices for each day.
2. Colors: Used to indicate the nature of price movement. Commonly, green is used for bullish (upward) moves and red for bearish (downward) moves.
Trend Lines:
Trend lines are straight lines drawn on a chart that connect a series of price points. Their significance:
1. Uptrend Line: Drawn along the lows, representing support. A break below might indicate a trend reversal.
2. Downtrend Line: Drawn along the highs, indicating resistance. A break above might suggest the start of a bullish trend.
Filled Areas:
These represent a range between two values on a chart, usually shaded or colored. For instance:
1. Bollinger Bands: The area between the upper and lower band is filled, giving a visual representation of volatility.
2. Volume Profile: Can show a filled area representing the amount of trading activity at different price levels.
Stop Loss and Take Profit Lines:
These are horizontal lines representing pre-determined exit points for trades.
1. Stop Loss Line: Indicates the level at which a trade will be automatically closed to limit losses. Positioned according to the trader's risk tolerance.
2. Take Profit Line: Denotes the target level to lock in profits. Set according to potential resistance (for long trades) or support (for short trades) or other technical factors.
Trailing Stop Lines:
A trailing stop is a dynamic form of stop loss that moves with the price. On a chart:
1. For Long Trades: Starts below the entry price and moves up with the price but remains static if the price falls, ensuring profits are locked in.
2. For Short Trades: Starts above the entry price and moves down with the price but remains static if the price rises.
Visual representations offer traders a clear, organized view of market dynamics. Familiarity with these tools ensures that traders can quickly and accurately interpret chart data, leading to more informed decision-making. Always ensure that the visual aids used resonate with your trading style and strategy for the best results.
8. Backtesting
Backtesting is a fundamental process in strategy development, enabling traders to evaluate the efficacy of their strategy using historical data. It provides a snapshot of how the strategy would have performed in past market conditions, offering insights into its potential strengths and vulnerabilities. In this section, we'll explore the intricacies of setting up and analyzing backtest results and the caveats one must be aware of.
Setting Up Backtest Period:
1. Duration: Determine the timeframe for the backtest. It should be long enough to capture various market conditions (bullish, bearish, sideways). For instance, if you're testing a daily strategy, consider a period of several years.
2. Data Quality: Ensure the data source is reliable, offering high-resolution and clean data. This is vital to get accurate backtest results.
3. Segmentation: Instead of a continuous period, sometimes it's helpful to backtest over distinct market phases, like a particular bear or bull market, to see how the strategy holds up in different environments.
Analyzing Backtest Results:
1. Performance Metrics: Examine metrics like the total return, annualized return, maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and others to gauge the strategy's efficiency.
2. Win Rate: It's the ratio of winning trades to total trades. A high win rate doesn't always signify a good strategy; it should be evaluated in conjunction with other metrics.
3. Risk/Reward: Understand the average profit versus the average loss per trade. A strategy might have a low win rate but still be profitable if the average gain far exceeds the average loss.
4. Drawdown Analysis: Review the periods of losses the strategy could incur and how long it takes, on average, to recover.
9. Tips and Best Practices
Successful trading requires more than just knowing how a strategy works. It necessitates an understanding of when to apply it, how to adjust it to varying market conditions, and the wisdom to recognize and avoid common pitfalls. This section offers insightful tips and best practices to enhance the application of the Supertrend Advance Strategy.
When to Use the Strategy:
1. Market Conditions: Ideally, employ the Supertrend Advance Strategy during trending market conditions. This strategy thrives when there are clear upward or downward trends. It might be less effective during consolidative or sideways markets.
2. News Events: Be cautious around significant news events, as they can cause extreme volatility. It might be wise to avoid trading immediately before and after high-impact news.
3. Liquidity: Ensure you are trading in assets/markets with sufficient liquidity. High liquidity ensures that the price movements are more reflective of genuine market sentiment and not due to thin volume.
Adjusting Settings for Different Markets/Timeframes:
1. Markets: Each market (stocks, forex, commodities) has its own characteristics. It's essential to adjust the strategy's parameters to align with the market's volatility and liquidity.
2. Timeframes: Shorter timeframes (like 1-minute or 5-minute charts) tend to have more noise. You might need to adjust the settings to filter out false signals. Conversely, for longer timeframes (like daily or weekly charts), you might need to be more responsive to genuine trend changes.
3. Customization: Regularly review and tweak the strategy's settings. Periodic adjustments can ensure the strategy remains optimized for the current market conditions.
10. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Given the complexities and nuances of the Supertrend Advance Strategy, it's only natural for traders, both new and seasoned, to have questions. This section addresses some of the most commonly asked questions regarding the strategy.
1. What exactly is the Supertrend Advance Strategy?
The Supertrend Advance Strategy is an evolved version of the traditional Supertrend indicator. It's designed to provide clearer buy and sell signals by incorporating additional indicators like EMA, RSI, MACD, CCI, etc. The strategy aims to capitalize on market trends while minimizing false signals.
2. Can I use the Supertrend Advance Strategy for all asset types?
Yes, the strategy can be applied to various asset types like stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. However, it's crucial to adjust the settings accordingly to suit the specific characteristics and volatility of each asset type.
3. Is this strategy suitable for day trading?
Absolutely! The Supertrend Advance Strategy can be adjusted to suit various timeframes, making it versatile for both day trading and long-term trading. Remember to fine-tune the settings to align with the timeframe you're trading on.
4. How do I deal with false signals?
No strategy is immune to false signals. However, by combining the Supertrend with other indicators and adhering to strict risk management protocols, you can minimize the impact of false signals. Always use stop-loss orders and consider filtering trades with additional confirmation signals.
5. Do I need any prior trading experience to use this strategy?
While the Supertrend Advance Strategy is designed to be user-friendly, having a foundational understanding of trading and market analysis can greatly enhance your ability to employ the strategy effectively. If you're a beginner, consider pairing the strategy with further education and practice on demo accounts.
6. How often should I review and adjust the strategy settings?
There's no one-size-fits-all answer. Some traders adjust settings weekly, while others might do it monthly. The key is to remain responsive to changing market conditions. Regular backtesting can give insights into potential required adjustments.
7. Can the Supertrend Advance Strategy be automated?
Yes, many traders use algorithmic trading platforms to automate their strategies, including the Supertrend Advance Strategy. However, always monitor automated systems regularly to ensure they're operating as intended.
8. Are there any markets or conditions where the strategy shouldn't be used?
The strategy might generate more false signals in markets that are consolidative or range-bound. During significant news events or times of unexpected high volatility, it's advisable to tread with caution or stay out of the market.
9. How important is backtesting with this strategy?
Backtesting is crucial as it allows traders to understand how the strategy would have performed in the past, offering insights into potential profitability and areas of improvement. Always backtest any new setting or tweak before applying it to live trades.
10. What if the strategy isn't working for me?
No strategy guarantees consistent profits. If it's not working for you, consider reviewing your settings, seeking expert advice, or complementing the Supertrend Advance Strategy with other analysis methods. Remember, continuous learning and adaptation are the keys to trading success.
Other comments
Value of combining several indicators in this script and how they work together
Diversification of Signals: Just as diversifying an investment portfolio can reduce risk, using multiple indicators can offer varied perspectives on potential price movements. Each indicator can capture a different facet of the market, ensuring that traders are not overly reliant on a single data point.
Confirmation & Reduced False Signals: A common challenge with many indicators is the potential for false signals. By requiring confirmation from multiple indicators before acting, the chances of acting on a false signal can be significantly reduced.
Flexibility Across Market Conditions: Different indicators might perform better under different market conditions. For example, while moving averages might excel in trending markets, oscillators like RSI might be more useful during sideways or range-bound conditions. A mashup strategy can potentially adapt better to varying market scenarios.
Comprehensive Analysis: With multiple indicators, traders can gauge trend strength, momentum, volatility, and potential market reversals all at once, providing a holistic view of the market.
How do the different indicators in the Supertrend Advance Strategy work together?
Supertrend: This is primarily a trend-following indicator. It provides traders with buy and sell signals based on the volatility of the price. When combined with other indicators, it can filter out noise and give more weight to strong, confirmed trends.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): EMA gives more weight to recent price data. It can be used to identify the direction and strength of a trend. When the price is above the EMA, it's generally considered bullish, and vice versa.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): An oscillator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. By cross-referencing with other indicators like EMA or MACD, traders can spot potential reversals or confirmations of a trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): This indicator identifies changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it can be a bullish sign, and when it crosses below, it can be bearish. Pairing MACD with Supertrend can provide dual confirmation of a trend.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): Initially developed for commodities, CCI can indicate overbought or oversold conditions. It can be used in conjunction with other indicators to determine entry and exit points.
In essence, the synergy of these indicators provides a balanced, comprehensive approach to trading. Each indicator offers its unique lens into market conditions, and when they align, it can be a powerful indication of a trading opportunity. This combination not only reduces the potential drawbacks of each individual indicator but leverages their strengths, aiming for more consistent and informed trading decisions.
Backtesting and Default Settings
• This indicator has been optimized to be applied for 1 hour-charts. However, the underlying principles of this strategy are supply and demand in the financial markets and the strategy can be applied to all timeframes. Daytraders can use the 1min- or 5min charts, swing-traders can use the daily charts.
• This strategy has been designed to identify the most promising, highest probability entries and trades for each stock or other financial security.
• The combination of the qualifiers results in a highly selective strategy which only considers the most promising swing-trading entries. As a result, you will normally only find a low number of trades for each stock or other financial security per year in case you apply this strategy for the daily charts. Shorter timeframes will result in a higher number of trades / year.
• Consequently, traders need to apply this strategy for a full watchlist rather than just one financial security.
• Default properties: RSI on (length 14, RSI buy level 50, sell level 50), EMA, RSI, MACD on, type of strategy pullback, SL/TP type: ATR (length 10, factor 3), trade direction both, quantity 5, take profit swing hl 5.1, highest / lowest lookback 2, enable ATR trail (ATR length 10, SL ATR multiplier 1.4, TP multiplier 2.1, lookback = 4, trade direction = both).
DEMA Flow [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated trend identification system that combines Double Exponential Moving Average methodology with advanced HL median filtering and ATR-based band detection for precise trend confirmation. Utilizing dual-layer smoothing architecture and volatility-adjusted breakout zones, this indicator delivers institutional-grade flow analysis with minimal lag while maintaining exceptional noise reduction. The system's intelligent band structure with asymmetric ATR multipliers provides clear trend state classification through price position analysis relative to dynamic threshold levels.
🔶 Advanced DEMA Calculation Engine
Implements double exponential moving average methodology using cascaded EMA calculations to significantly reduce lag compared to traditional moving averages. The system applies dual smoothing through sequential EMA processing, creating a responsive yet stable trend baseline that maintains sensitivity to genuine market structure changes while filtering short-term noise.
// Core DEMA Framework
dema(src, length) =>
EMA1 = ta.ema(src, length)
EMA2 = ta.ema(EMA1, length)
DEMA_Value = 2 * EMA1 - EMA2
DEMA_Value
// Primary Calculation
DEMA = dema(close, DEMA_Length)
2H
🔶 HL Median Filter Smoothing Architecture
Features sophisticated high-low median filtering using rolling window analysis to create ultra-smooth trend baselines with outlier resistance. The system constructs dynamic arrays of recent DEMA values, sorts them for median extraction, and handles both odd and even window lengths for optimal smoothing consistency across all market conditions.
// HL Median Filter Logic
hlMedian(src, length) =>
window = array.new_float()
for i = 0 to length - 1
array.push(window, src)
array.sort(window)
// Median Extraction
lenW = array.size(window)
median = lenW % 2 == 1 ?
array.get(window, lenW / 2) :
(array.get(window, lenW/2 - 1) + array.get(window, lenW/2)) / 2
// Smooth DEMA Calculation
Smooth_DEMA = hlMedian(DEMA_Value, HL_Filter_Length)
🔶 ATR Band Construction Framework
Implements volatility-adaptive band structure using Average True Range calculations with asymmetric multiplier configuration for optimal trend identification. The system creates upper and lower threshold bands around the smoothed DEMA baseline with configurable ATR multipliers, enabling precise trend state determination through price breakout analysis.
// ATR Band Calculation
atrBands(src, atr_length, upper_mult, lower_mult) =>
ATR = ta.atr(atr_length)
Upper_Band = src + upper_mult * ATR
Lower_Band = src - lower_mult * ATR
// Band Generation
= atrBands(Smooth_DEMA, ATR_Length, Upper_ATR_Mult, Lower_ATR_Mult)
15min
🔶 Intelligent Flow Signal Engine
Generates binary trend states through band breakout detection, transitioning to bullish flow when price exceeds upper band and bearish flow when price breaches lower band. The system maintains flow state persistence until opposing band breakout occurs, providing clear trend classification without whipsaw signals during normal volatility fluctuations.
🔶 Comprehensive Visual Architecture
Provides multi-dimensional flow visualization through color-coded DEMA line, trend-synchronized candle coloring, and bar color overlay for complete chart integration. The system uses institutional color scheme with neon green for bullish flow, neon red for bearish flow, and neutral gray for undefined states with configurable band visibility.
🔶 Asymmetric Band Configuration
Features intelligent asymmetric ATR multiplier system with default upper multiplier of 2.1 and lower multiplier of 1.5, optimizing for market dynamics where upside breakouts often require stronger momentum confirmation than downside breaks. This configuration reduces false signals while maintaining sensitivity to genuine flow changes.
🔶 Dual-Layer Smoothing Methodology
Combines DEMA's inherent lag reduction with HL median filtering to create exceptional smoothing without sacrificing responsiveness. The system first applies double exponential smoothing for initial noise reduction, then applies median filtering to eliminate outliers and create ultra-clean flow baseline suitable for high-frequency and institutional trading applications.
🔶 Alert Integration System
Features comprehensive alert framework for flow state transitions with customizable notifications for bullish and bearish flow confirmations. The system provides real-time alerts on crossover events with clear directional indicators and exchange/ticker integration for multi-symbol monitoring capabilities.
🔶 Performance Optimization Framework
Utilizes efficient array management with optimized median calculation algorithms and minimal variable overhead for smooth operation across all timeframes. The system includes intelligent bar indexing for median filter initialization and streamlined flow state tracking for consistent performance during extended analysis periods.
🔶 Why Choose DEMA Flow ?
This indicator delivers sophisticated flow identification through dual-layer smoothing architecture and volatility-adaptive band methodology. By combining DEMA's reduced-lag characteristics with HL median filtering and ATR-based breakout zones, it provides institutional-grade flow analysis with exceptional noise reduction and minimal false signals. The system's asymmetric band structure and comprehensive visual integration make it essential for traders seeking systematic trend-following approaches across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets with clear entry/exit signals and comprehensive alert capabilities for automated trading strategies.
Reactive Curvature Smoother Moving Average IndicatorSummary in one paragraph
RCS MA is a reactive curvature smoother for any liquid instrument on intraday through swing timeframes. It helps you act only when context strengthens by adapting its window length with a normalized path energy score and by smoothing with robust residual weights over a quadratic fit, then optionally blending a capped one step forecast. Add it to a clean chart and watch the single colored line. Shapes can shift while a bar forms and settle on close. For conservative use, judge on bar close.
Scope and intent
• Markets: major FX pairs, index futures, large cap equities, liquid crypto
• Timeframes: one minute to daily
• Purpose: reduce lag in trends while resisting chop and outliers
• Limits: indicator only, no orders
Originality and usefulness
• Novelty: adaptive window selection by minimizing normalized path energy with directionality bias, plus Huber weighted residuals and curvature aware penalty, finished with a mintick capped forecast blend
• Failure modes addressed: whipsaws from fixed length MAs and outlier spikes that pull means
• Testable: Inputs expose all components and optional diagnostics show chosen length, directionality, and energy
• Portable yardstick: forecast cap uses mintick to stay symbol aware
Method overview in plain language
Base measures
• Range span of the tested window and a path energy defined as the sum of squared price increments, normalized by span
Components
Adaptive window chooser: scans L between Min and Max using an energy over trend score and picks the lowest score
Robust smoother: fits a quadratic to the last L bars, computes residuals, applies Huber weights and an exponential residual penalty scaled down when curvature is high
Forecast blend: projects one step ahead from the quadratic, caps displacement by a multiple of mintick, blends by user weight
Fusion rule
• Final line equals robust mean plus optional capped forecast blend
Signal rule
• Visual bias only: color turns lime when close is above the line, red otherwise
What you will see on the chart
• One colored line that tightens in trends and relaxes in chop
• Optional debug overlays for core value, chosen L, directionality, and energy
• Optional last bar label with L, directionality, and energy
• Reminder: drawings can move intrabar and settle on close
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Source: price series to smooth
Logic
• Min window l_min. Typical 5 to 21. Higher increases stability, adds lag
• Max window l_max. Typical 40 to 128. Higher reduces noise, adds lag ceiling
• Length step grid_step. Typical 1 to 8. Smaller is finer and heavier
• Trend bias trend_bias. Typical 0.50 to 0.80. Higher favors trend persistence
• Residual penalty lambda_base. Typical 0.8 to 2.0. Higher downweights large residuals more
• Huber threshold huber_k. Typical 1.5 to 3.0. Higher admits more outliers
• Curvature guard curv_guard. Typical 0.3 to 1.0. Higher reduces influence when curve is tight
• Forecast blend lead_blend. 0 disables. Typical 0.10 to 0.40
• Forecast cap lead_limit. Typical 1 to 5 minticks
• Show chosen L and metrics show_debug. Diagnostics toggle
Optional: enable diagnostics to see length, direction, and energy
Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes
• Shapes can move while bars are open and settle on close
• Use on standard candles for analysis and combine with your own risk process
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Very quiet regimes can reduce energy contrast, length selection may hover near the bounds
• Gap heavy symbols can disrupt quadratic fit on the window edges
• Excessive forecast blend may look anticipatory; use low values and the cap
CandelaCharts - Projections 📝 Overview
Projections turns a hand-picked swing window into clean, forward price levels. You pick a time range and an anchor (wick or body); the tool finds that window’s reference extremes (Level 0 & Level 1) and then projects directional extensions (e.g., −1, −2, −2.5, −4) in the chosen bias (Auto / Bullish / Bearish). It draws flat lines across the chart with optional labels so you can plan targets, fade zones, or continuation levels at a glance.
📦 Features
This section highlights the core capabilities you’ll rely on most.
Window-based engine — Define a start/end time; the script records open/high/low/close inside that window and builds levels from those extremes.
Two anchor styles — Project from Wick extremes (Hi/Lo) or Body extremes (max/min of OHLC at the high/low bars).
Directional bias — Auto (up if net up; doji resolves by wick dominance), or force Bullish/Bearish for one-sided extensions.
Default & Custom levels — Toggle pre-sets (−1/−2/−2.5/−4) or enter your own comma-separated list (decimals supported).
Readable drawings — Per-level colors (defaults) or unified bull/bear color (custom), with label size, line style, and width controls.
⚙️ Settings
Use these controls to define the window, pick the projection style, and customize the visuals.
Settings (Core)
From / To — Start and end timestamps of the capture window (everything is computed from this segment).
Bias — Auto / Bullish / Bearish. Guides which way negative levels extend (up for bull, down for bear).
Anchor — Wick uses Hi/Lo; Body uses the body extremes at the high/low bars.
Levels
Levels = Default — Enable any of −1, −2, −2.5, −4 and set each color.
Levels = Custom — Provide your own list (e.g., “−0.5, −1, −1.5, −3”) and pick Bullish/Bearish colors. (Custom uses one color per side.)
Style
Labels — Show/Hide the numeric level tag at the line’s right edge; choose label size.
Lines — Pick solid/dashed/dotted and line width.
⚡️ Showcase
Bearish Projection
Bullish Projection
📒 Usage
Follow these steps to set the window, generate levels, and turn them into a trade plan.
1) Mark the window — Set From/To around the swing you want to project (e.g., prior day, news impulse, weekly move).
2) Choose bias — Auto adapts; or lock Bullish/Bearish if you only want upside or downside projections.
3) Pick anchor — Wick = raw extremes; Body = more conservative reference. Body helps when single-print wicks distort levels.
4) Select levels — Toggle defaults or add a custom list. Negative values (−1, −2, …) extend beyond the reference extreme in the bias direction. (Level 0 and 1 are always drawn as the reference pair.)
5) Style it — Turn labels on, adjust size, and set line style/width for visibility on your timeframe.
6) Trade plan — Treat projections as reaction/continuation zones: scale out into −1/−2/−2.5, watch for fades back into the band, or ride continuation when price accepts beyond a level.
🚨 Alerts
There are no built-in alerts in this version.
⚠️ Disclaimer
Trading involves significant risk, and many participants may incur losses. The content on this site is not intended as financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. Decisions to buy, sell, hold, or trade securities, commodities, or other financial instruments carry inherent risks and are best made with guidance from qualified financial professionals. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Session Seed Range (LON / FRA / NY / CME / ASIA + 3 Custom) — v6Session Seed Range → Lines (LON / FRA / NY / CME / ASIA + 3 Custom)
What it does
This tool draws two horizontal levels—the High and Low of a short seed window at each market open (e.g., London 09:00–09:05)—and extends them to the session close (e.g., 17:30). An optional Mid line (average of seed High/Low) can be displayed as well.
Included sessions
• London, Frankfurt, New York, CME, Asia
• Plus 3 fully custom sessions (name, seed window, session end)
Key features
• Seed window → extended lines: Capture the initial opening move and project it across the trading session.
• Timezone dropdown: Choose from common IANA timezones (incl. Europe/Istanbul)—no manual offset math.
• Label language: DE / EN / TR (or Off) for price labels at the right edge.
• Show/Hide Mid line per your preference.
• 3 custom sessions: Add your own schedules with custom names.
• Per-session styling: Colors and widths for High/Low/Mid.
• Lightweight: Works on any timeframe.
________________________________________
Quick start
1. Pick your Timezone in the Inputs.
2. Enable a session (e.g., London) and set its Seed (HHMM–HHMM) and Session End (HHMM).
3. Optionally turn on Show mid line and Labels (DE/EN/TR).
4. Repeat for other sessions or use the Custom A/B/C blocks.
Tip: The seed window must be visible on the chart’s timeframe so the High/Low can be collected. If you don’t see lines, zoom in or use a lower timeframe.
________________________________________
Inputs overview
• Timezone: IANA timezone selection.
• Labels: Off / DE / EN / TR + label offset (ticks).
• Show mid line: Toggle Mid (average of seed High/Low).
• Session blocks (London, Frankfurt, New York, CME, Asia, Custom A/B/C):
o Enable, Seed (HHMM–HHMM), Session End (HHMM)
o High/Low/Mid colors, Width
________________________________________
Notes & limitations
• Lines are built from the seed window only; they do not repaint once the seed completes.
• If the chart timeframe is too high to include the seed window, switch to a lower TF or widen the seed.
• This indicator is for analysis/education only and not financial advice.
________________________________________
Changelog (suggested)
• v1.0.0 — Initial release: LON/FRA/NY/CME/ASIA + 3 Custom, TZ dropdown, labels DE/EN/TR, Mid toggle.
________________________________________
If you want a shorter “store blurb” version, use:
Draws High/Low of a small opening seed window (e.g., London 09:00–09:05) and extends them to session close. Includes London, Frankfurt, New York, CME, Asia + 3 custom sessions. Timezone dropdown (incl. Europe/Istanbul), labels in DE/EN/TR (or Off), optional Mid line, per-session styling. Seed window must be visible on your timeframe. Not financial advice.
STOCK EXCHANGE + SILVER BULLET FRAMESThis script is an updated version of the " NY/LDN/TOK Stock Exchange Opening Hours " script.
Objective
Displays global stock exchange sessions (New York, London, Tokyo) with session frames, highs/lows, and opening lines. Includes ICT Silver Bullet windows (NY, London, Tokyo) with configurable shading. Past sessions are frozen at close, ongoing sessions update dynamically until closure, and upcoming sessions are pre-drawn. Fully customizable with options for weekends, labels, padding, opacity, and individual session toggles.
It is designed to help traders quickly interpret market context, liquidity zones, and session-based price behavior.
Main Features
Past sessions (historical data)
• Session Frames:
• Each box is frozen at the session’s close.
• The left edge aligns with the opening time, while the right edge is fixed at the closing time.
• The top and bottom reflect the highest and lowest prices during the session.
• Session Labels:
• Names (NY, LDN, TOK) displayed above the frame, aligned left, in the same color as the frame.
• Opening Lines:
• Vertical dotted lines mark the start of each session.
Ongoing and upcoming sessions (live market)
• Dynamic Session Frames:
• The right edge is locked at the future close time.
• The top and bottom update in real time as new highs and lows form.
• Labels and Lines:
• The session label is visible above the active frame.
• Opening lines are drawn as soon as the session begins.
Silver Bullet Time Windows (ICT concept)
• Highlights key liquidity windows within sessions:
• New York: 10:00–11:00 and 14:00–15:00
• London: 08:00–09:00
• Tokyo: 09:00–10:00
• Silver Bullet zones are shaded with configurable opacity (default 5%).
Customization and Options
• Enable or disable individual sessions (NY, London, Tokyo).
• Toggle weekend display (frames and Silver Bullets).
• Adjust label size, padding, and text visibility.
• Control frame opacity (default 0%).
• Optimized memory management with automatic pruning of old graphical objects.
FVG 9:31–10:00 AM ETFVG 9:31–10:00 AM ET - Script Description
What This Script Does
This indicator finds **Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** that form during the first 29 minutes of the U.S. stock market (9:31 AM to 10:00 AM Eastern Time). A Fair Value Gap is a price imbalance where there's a gap between candles that often becomes an important support or resistance level.
Key Features:
- **Time Window**: Only looks for FVGs between 9:31-10:00 AM ET (most important opening period)
- **One Per Day**: Finds only the first FVG that forms in this time window each day
- **Visual Display**: Draws a purple box around the gap with a clear "FVG" label
- **Price Tracking**: Monitors when price comes back to test the gap level
- **Alert System**: Sends notifications when price returns to the FVG zone
How FVGs Are Detected:
- **Bullish FVG**: When there's a gap up (low of middle candle is above high of 3rd candle back)
- **Bearish FVG**: When there's a gap down (high of middle candle is below low of 3rd candle back)
The 9:31-10:00 AM window is chosen because this is when institutions and algorithms create their biggest price moves right after market open, making these gaps very reliable.
Customization Options
User Settings
Extend FVG Box (Bars)
- **What it does**: Makes the purple box longer to the right
- **Default**: 0 (box ends right after the gap forms)
- **Options**: Any number from 0 to 100+
- **When to use**:
- Keep at 0 for clean historical view
- Set to 10-20 to track the gap during the current session
- Set higher for longer reference
Code Settings (Can Be Changed)
Time Window
- **Start**: 9:31 AM Eastern Time
- **End**: 10:00 AM Eastern Time
- **Can modify**: Change the hour/minute numbers in the code
Visual Style
- **Color**: Purple with see-through background
- **Label**: Shows "FVG" text in white
- **Can modify**: Change colors and transparency in the code
How to Use:
Setup
Chart Settings
1. Use 1-minute, 5-minute, or 15-minute charts (works best on these timeframes)
2. Apply to liquid markets like ES, NQ, major stocks, or forex pairs
3. Set the "Extend FVG Box" to your preference (start with 0 or 10)
What You'll See
- A purple box appears when an FVG forms during 9:31-10:00 AM
- Box shows the exact price levels of the gap
- "FVG" label appears on the box
- Only one FVG per day will be marked
Trading Strategies
Basic FVG Trading
1. **Wait for Formation**: Let the purple box appear during 9:31-10:00 AM
2. **Watch Price Movement**: See if price moves away from the gap
3. **Enter on Retest**: When price comes back to the purple box area, consider entering
4. **Trade Direction**:
- Bullish FVG = look for long opportunities when price retests
- Bearish FVG = look for short opportunities when price retests
Entry Methods
- **Bounce Play**: Enter when price touches the FVG box and bounces away
- **Break Play**: Enter if price strongly breaks through the FVG box
- **Rejection Play**: Enter opposite direction if price gets rejected at the FVG
Risk Management
Stop Losses
- Place stops just outside the FVG box (a few ticks beyond the gap)
- If trading a bounce, stop goes on opposite side of the gap
- If trading a break, stop goes back inside the gap
Position Sizing
- Start small until you understand how FVGs work in your market
- Bigger gaps = smaller position size (more risk)
- Smaller gaps = can use larger position size
Profit Targets
- Take profits at obvious levels like round numbers, previous highs/lows
- Consider taking half profits at 1:1 risk/reward ratio
- Let some position run if the move is strong
Best Practices
When It Works Best
- High-volume stocks and futures (ES, NQ work great)
- Normal market days without major news during the 9:31-10:00 window
- When there's clear institutional activity in the opening period
When to Be Careful
- Low-volume stocks or markets
- Major economic news releases during the time window
- Market holidays when volume is low
- Very choppy or sideways days
Alert Usage
- The script will alert you when price comes back to test the FVG
- Don't trade the alert blindly - always check the current market situation
- Use the alert as a heads-up to start watching the setup more closely
Tips for Success
- The earlier the FVG forms in the 9:31-10:00 window, often the more significant it is
- FVGs that form with high volume are usually more reliable
- Always consider the overall market direction - don't fight the main trend
- Practice on paper first to understand how FVGs behave in your chosen market
🔗 Works Best With:
✅ Liquidity Levels — Smart Swing Lows: Spot key structural lows that can fuel stop hunts and reversals.
✅ ICT Turtle Soup — Liquidity Reversal: Add a classic reversal pattern to your toolkit to catch fakeouts cleanly.
✅ ICT SMC Liquidity Grabs and OBs- Liquidity Grabs, Order Block Zones, and Fibonacci OTE Levels, allowing traders to identify institutional entry models with clean, rule-based visual signals.
This script is most valuable for day traders who want to catch institutional moves right after market open, but it can also help swing traders identify important intraday levels.
✅ ICT Macro Zones (Grey Box Version)- It tracks real-time highs and lows for each Silver Bullet session.
✅ Weekly Opening Gap (cryptonnnite)
StatMetricsLibrary "StatMetrics"
A utility library for common statistical indicators and ratios used in technical analysis.
Includes Z-Score, correlation, PLF, SRI, Sharpe, Sortino, Omega ratios, and normalization tools.
zscore(src, len)
Calculates the Z-score of a series
Parameters:
src (float) : The input price or series (e.g., close)
len (simple int) : The lookback period for mean and standard deviation
Returns: Z-score: number of standard deviations the input is from the mean
corr(x, y, len)
Computes Pearson correlation coefficient between two series
Parameters:
x (float) : First series
y (float) : Second series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Correlation coefficient between -1 and 1
plf(src, longLen, shortLen, smoothLen)
Calculates the Price Lag Factor (PLF) as the difference between long and short Z-scores, normalized and smoothed
Parameters:
src (float) : Source series (e.g., close)
longLen (simple int) : Long Z-score period
shortLen (simple int) : Short Z-score period
smoothLen (simple int) : Hull MA smoothing length
Returns: Smoothed and normalized PLF oscillator
sri(signal, len)
Computes the Statistical Reliability Index (SRI) based on trend persistence
Parameters:
signal (float) : A price or signal series (e.g., smoothed PLF)
len (simple int) : Lookback period for smoothing and deviation
Returns: Normalized trend reliability score
sharpe(src, len)
Calculates the Sharpe Ratio over a period
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series (e.g., close)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Sharpe ratio value
sortino(src, len)
Calculates the Sortino Ratio over a period, using only downside volatility
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Sortino ratio value
omega(src, len)
Calculates the Omega Ratio as the ratio of upside to downside return area
Parameters:
src (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Omega ratio value
beta(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates beta coefficient of asset vs benchmark using rolling covariance
Parameters:
asset (float) : Series of the asset (e.g., close)
benchmark (float) : Series of the benchmark (e.g., SPX close)
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Beta value (slope of linear regression)
alpha(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates rolling alpha of an asset relative to a benchmark
Parameters:
asset (float) : Series of the asset (e.g., close)
benchmark (float) : Series of the benchmark (e.g., SPX close)
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Alpha value (excess return not explained by Beta exposure)
skew(x, len)
Computes skewness of a return series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Skewness value
kurtosis(x, len)
Computes kurtosis of a return series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Kurtosis value
cv(x, len)
Calculates Coefficient of Variation
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series (e.g., returns or prices)
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: CV value
autocorr(x, len)
Calculates autocorrelation with 1-lag
Parameters:
x (float) : Series to test
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Autocorrelation at lag 1
stderr(x, len)
Calculates rolling standard error of a series
Parameters:
x (float) : Input series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Standard error (std dev / sqrt(n))
info_ratio(asset, benchmark, len)
Calculates the Information Ratio
Parameters:
asset (float) : Asset price series
benchmark (float) : Benchmark price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Information ratio (alpha / tracking error)
tracking_error(asset, benchmark, len)
Measures deviation from benchmark (Tracking Error)
Parameters:
asset (float) : Asset return series
benchmark (float) : Benchmark return series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Tracking error value
max_drawdown(x, len)
Computes maximum drawdown over a rolling window
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Rolling max drawdown percentage (as a negative value)
zscore_signal(z, ob, os)
Converts Z-score into a 3-level signal
Parameters:
z (float) : Z-score series
ob (float) : Overbought threshold
os (float) : Oversold threshold
Returns: -1, 0, or 1 depending on signal state
r_squared(x, y, len)
Calculates rolling R-squared (coefficient of determination)
Parameters:
x (float) : Asset returns
y (float) : Benchmark returns
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: R-squared value (0 to 1)
entropy(x, len)
Approximates Shannon entropy using log returns
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Approximate entropy
zreversal(z)
Detects Z-score reversals to the mean
Parameters:
z (float) : Z-score series
Returns: +1 on upward reversal, -1 on downward
momentum_rank(x, len)
Calculates relative momentum strength
Parameters:
x (float) : Price series
len (simple int) : Lookback window
Returns: Proportion of lookback where current price is higher
normalize(x, len)
Normalizes a series to a 0–1 range over a period
Parameters:
x (float) : The input series
len (simple int) : Lookback period
Returns: Normalized value between 0 and 1
composite_score(score1, score2, score3)
Combines multiple normalized scores into a composite score
Parameters:
score1 (float)
score2 (float)
score3 (float)
Returns: Average composite score
Bilateral Filter For Loop [BackQuant]Bilateral Filter For Loop
The Bilateral Filter For Loop is an advanced technical indicator designed to filter out market noise and smooth out price data, thus improving the identification of underlying market trends. It employs a bilateral filter, which is a sophisticated non-linear filter commonly used in image processing and price time series analysis. By considering both spatial and range differences between price points, this filter is highly effective at preserving significant trends while reducing random fluctuations, ultimately making it suitable for dynamic trend-following strategies.
Please take the time to read the following:
Key Features
1. Bilateral Filter Calculation:
The bilateral filter is the core of this indicator and works by applying a weight to each data point based on two factors: spatial distance and price range difference. This dual weighting process allows the filter to preserve important price movements while reducing the impact of less relevant fluctuations. The filter uses two primary parameters:
Spatial Sigma (σ_d): This parameter adjusts the weight applied based on the distance of each price point from the current price. A larger spatial sigma means more smoothing, as further away values will contribute more heavily to the result.
Range Sigma (σ_r): This parameter controls how much weight is applied based on the difference in price values. Larger price differences result in smaller weights, while similar price values result in larger weights, thereby preserving the trend while filtering out noise.
The output of this filter is a smoothed version of the original price series, which eliminates short-term fluctuations, helping traders focus on longer-term trends. The bilateral filter is applied over a rolling window, adjusting the level of smoothing dynamically based on both the distance between values and their relative price movements.
2. For Loop Calculation for Trend Scoring:
A for-loop is used to calculate the trend score based on the filtered price data. The loop compares the current value to previous values within the specified window, scoring the trend as follows:
+1 for upward movement (when the filtered value is greater than the previous value).
-1 for downward movement (when the filtered value is less than the previous value).
The cumulative result of this loop gives a continuous trend score, which serves as a directional indicator for the market's momentum. By summing the scores over the window period, the loop provides an aggregate value that reflects the overall trend strength. This score helps determine whether the market is experiencing a strong uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement.
3. Long and Short Conditions:
Once the trend score has been calculated, it is compared against predefined threshold levels:
A long signal is generated when the trend score exceeds the upper threshold, indicating that the market is in a strong uptrend.
A short signal is generated when the trend score crosses below the lower threshold, signaling a potential downtrend or trend reversal.
These conditions provide clear signals for potential entry points, and the color-coding helps traders quickly identify market direction:
Long signals are displayed in green.
Short signals are displayed in red.
These signals are designed to provide high-confidence entries for trend-following strategies, helping traders capture profitable movements in the market.
4. Trend Background and Bar Coloring:
The script offers customizable visual settings to enhance the clarity of the trend signals. Traders can choose to:
Color the bars based on the trend direction: Bars are colored green for long signals and red for short signals.
Change the background color to provide additional context: The background will be shaded green for a bullish trend and red for a bearish trend. This visual feedback helps traders to stay aligned with the prevailing market sentiment.
These features offer a quick visual reference for understanding the market's direction, making it easier for traders to identify when to enter or exit positions.
5. Threshold Lines for Visual Feedback:
Threshold lines are plotted on the chart to represent the predefined long and short levels. These lines act as clear markers for when the market reaches a critical threshold, triggering a potential buy (long) or sell (short) signal. By showing these threshold lines on the chart, traders can quickly gauge the strength of the market and assess whether the trend is strong enough to warrant action.
These thresholds can be adjusted based on the trader's preferences, allowing them to fine-tune the indicator for different market conditions or asset behaviors.
6. Customizable Parameters for Flexibility:
The indicator offers several parameters that can be adjusted to suit individual trading preferences:
Window Period (Bilateral Filter): The window size determines how many past price values are used to calculate the bilateral filter. A larger window increases smoothing, while a smaller window results in more responsive, but noisier, data.
Spatial Sigma (σ_d) and Range Sigma (σ_r): These values control how sensitive the filter is to price changes and the distance between data points. Fine-tuning these parameters allows traders to adjust the degree of noise reduction applied to the price series.
Threshold Levels: The upper and lower thresholds determine when the trend score crosses into long or short territory. These levels can be customized to better match the trader's risk tolerance or asset characteristics.
Visual Settings: Traders can customize the appearance of the chart, including the line width of trend signals, bar colors, and background shading, to make the indicator more readable and aligned with their charting style.
7. Alerts for Trend Reversals:
The indicator includes alert conditions for real-time notifications when the market crosses the defined thresholds. Traders can set alerts to be notified when:
The trend score crosses the long threshold, signaling an uptrend.
The trend score crosses the short threshold, signaling a downtrend.
These alerts provide timely information, allowing traders to take immediate action when the market shows a significant change in direction.
Final Thoughts
The Bilateral Filter For Loop indicator is a robust tool for trend-following traders who wish to reduce market noise and focus on the underlying trend. By applying the bilateral filter and calculating trend scores, this indicator helps traders identify strong uptrends and downtrends, providing reliable entry signals with minimal market noise. The customizable parameters, visual feedback, and alerting system make it a versatile tool for traders seeking to improve their timing and capture profitable market movements.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
CRYPTO:SOLUSD
Dynamic Score SMA [QuantAlgo]Dynamic Score SMA 📈🌊
The Dynamic Score SMA by QuantAlgo offers a powerful trend-following approach that combines the simplicity of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) with an innovative dynamic trend scoring technique . By continuously evaluating price movement relative to the SMA over a customizable window, this indicator adapts to varying market conditions, providing traders and investors with clearer, more adaptable trend signals. With this dynamic scoring approach, the Dynamic Score SMA helps identify trend shifts, allowing for more strategic decision-making.
🌟 Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
At the core of the Dynamic Score SMA is its dynamic trend score system , which assesses price movements by comparing them to the SMA over a series of historical data points. This technique goes beyond traditional SMA indicators by offering a dynamic, probabilistic evaluation of trend strength, delivering a more responsive and nuanced view of market direction. The integration of this scoring system enables traders and investors to navigate both trending and sideway markets with greater confidence and precision.
⚙️ Technical Composition and Calculation
The Dynamic Score SMA leverages the Simple Moving Average to establish a baseline trend, with customizable SMA length to control the indicator’s sensitivity. The dynamic trend scoring technique then evaluates price behavior relative to the SMA over a specified window, generating a trend score that reflects the current market bias.
When the score crosses the designated uptrend or downtrend thresholds, the indicator signals a potential trend shift. By adjusting the SMA length, window duration, and thresholds, users can refine the indicator’s responsiveness to match their preferred trading or investing strategy, making it suitable for both volatile and steady markets.
📈 Features and Practical Applications
Customizable SMA Length: Set the length of the SMA to control how sensitive the trend is to price changes. Longer lengths produce smoother trends, while shorter lengths increase responsiveness.
Window Length for Dynamic Scoring: Adjust the window length to determine how many data points are considered in the dynamic trend score calculation, allowing for more tailored analysis of recent versus long-term trends.
Uptrend/Downtrend Thresholds: Define thresholds for triggering trend signals. Higher thresholds reduce sensitivity, providing clearer signals in volatile markets, while lower thresholds capture shorter-term movements.
Bar and Background Coloring: Visual cues, including bar coloring and background fills, provide a quick reference for current trend direction, making it easier to monitor market conditions.
Trend Confirmation: The dynamic trend scoring system verifies trend strength, offering more reliable entry and exit points by filtering out potential false signals.
⚡️ How to Use
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Dynamic Score SMA to your favourites, then apply it to your chart. Customize the SMA length, window size, and thresholds to match your trading or investing preferences.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts: Observe the trend in relation to the SMA and watch for signals when the score crosses key thresholds. Bar and/or background coloring will help identify the current trend direction and any shifts in momentum.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for significant trend crossovers and reversals, enabling you to act on market changes in real-time without needing constant chart observation.
💫 Summary and Usage Tips
The Dynamic Score SMA by QuantAlgo is a sophisticated trend-following indicator that combines the familiarity of the SMA with a dynamic trend scoring system, providing a more adaptable and probabilistic approach to trend analysis. By tailoring the SMA length, scoring window, and thresholds, traders and investors can fine-tune the indicator for both short-term adjustments and long-term trend following. For optimal use, adjust sensitivity based on market volatility, and rely on the visual cues for clear trend confirmation. Whether you’re navigating choppy markets or stable trends, the Dynamic Score SMA offers a refined approach to capturing market direction with enhanced precision.
ICT Killzones and Sessions W/ Silver Bullet + MacrosForex and Equity Session Tracker with Killzones, Silver Bullet, and Macro Times
This Pine Script indicator is a comprehensive timekeeping tool designed specifically for ICT traders using any time-based strategy. It helps you visualize and keep track of forex and equity session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours.
Features:
Session and Killzone Lines:
Green: London Open (LO)
White: New York (NY)
Orange: Australian (AU)
Purple: Asian (AS)
Includes AM and PM session markers.
Dotted/Striped Lines indicate overlapping kill zones within the session timeline.
Customization Options:
Display sessions and killzones in collapsed or full view.
Hide specific sessions or killzones based on your preferences.
Customize colors, texts, and sizes.
Option to hide drawings older than the current day.
Automatic Updates:
The indicator draws all lines and boxes at the start of a new day.
Automatically adjusts time-based boxes according to the New York timezone.
Killzone Time Windows (for indices):
London KZ: 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ: 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ: 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet Times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro Times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 09:10
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
Latest Update:
January 15:
Added option to automatically change text coloring based on the chart.
Included additional optional macro times per user request:
12:50 - 13:10
13:50 - 14:15
14:50 - 15:10
15:50 - 16:15
Usage:
To maximize your experience, minimize the pane where the script is drawn. This minimizes distractions while keeping the essential time markers visible. The script is designed to help traders by clearly annotating key trading periods without overwhelming their charts.
Originality and Justification:
This indicator uniquely integrates various time-based strategies essential for ICT traders. Unlike other indicators, it consolidates session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours into one comprehensive tool. This allows traders to have a clear and organized view of critical trading periods, facilitating better decision-making.
Credits:
This script incorporates open-source elements with significant improvements to enhance functionality and user experience.
Forex and Equity Session Tracker with Killzones, Silver Bullet, and Macro Times
This Pine Script indicator is a comprehensive timekeeping tool designed specifically for ICT traders using any time-based strategy. It helps you visualize and keep track of forex and equity session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours.
Features:
Session and Killzone Lines:
Green: London Open (LO)
White: New York (NY)
Orange: Australian (AU)
Purple: Asian (AS)
Includes AM and PM session markers.
Dotted/Striped Lines indicate overlapping kill zones within the session timeline.
Customization Options:
Display sessions and killzones in collapsed or full view.
Hide specific sessions or killzones based on your preferences.
Customize colors, texts, and sizes.
Option to hide drawings older than the current day.
Automatic Updates:
The indicator draws all lines and boxes at the start of a new day.
Automatically adjusts time-based boxes according to the New York timezone.
Killzone Time Windows (for indices):
London KZ: 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ: 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ: 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet Times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro Times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 09:10
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
Latest Update:
January 15:
Added option to automatically change text coloring based on the chart.
Included additional optional macro times per user request:
12:50 - 13:10
13:50 - 14:15
14:50 - 15:10
15:50 - 16:15
ICT Sessions and Kill Zones
What They Are:
ICT Sessions: These are specific times during the trading day when market activity is expected to be higher, such as the London Open, New York Open, and the Asian session.
Kill Zones: These are specific time windows within these sessions where the probability of significant price movements is higher. For example, the New York AM Kill Zone is typically from 8:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST.
How to Use Them:
Identify the Session: Determine which trading session you are in (London, New York, or Asian).
Focus on Kill Zones: Within that session, focus on the kill zones for potential trade setups. For instance, during the New York session, look for setups between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM EST.
Silver Bullets
What They Are:
Silver Bullets: These are specific, high-probability trade setups that occur within the kill zones. They are designed to be "one shot, one kill" trades, meaning they aim for precise and effective entries and exits.
How to Use Them:
Time-Based Setup: Look for these setups within the designated kill zones. For example, between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM for the New York AM session .
Chart Analysis: Start with higher time frames like the 15-minute chart and then refine down to 5-minute and 1-minute charts to identify imbalances or specific patterns .
Macros
What They Are:
Macros: These are broader market conditions and trends that influence your trading decisions. They include understanding the overall market direction, seasonal tendencies, and the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports.
How to Use Them:
Understand Market Conditions: Be aware of the macroeconomic factors and market conditions that could affect price movements.
Seasonal Tendencies: Know the seasonal patterns that might influence the market direction.
COT Reports: Use the Commitment of Traders reports to understand the positioning of large traders and commercial hedgers .
Putting It All Together
Preparation: Understand the macro conditions and review the COT reports.
Session and Kill Zone: Identify the trading session and focus on the kill zones.
Silver Bullet Setup: Look for high-probability setups within the kill zones using refined chart analysis.
Execution: Execute the trade with precision, aiming for a "one shot, one kill" outcome.
By following these steps, you can effectively use ICT sessions, kill zones, silver bullets, and macros to enhance your trading strategy.
Usage:
To maximize your experience, shrink the pane where the script is drawn. This minimizes distractions while keeping the essential time markers visible. The script is designed to help traders by clearly annotating key trading periods without overwhelming their charts.
Originality and Justification:
This indicator uniquely integrates various time-based strategies essential for ICT traders. Unlike other indicators, it consolidates session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours into one comprehensive tool. This allows traders to have a clear and organized view of critical trading periods, facilitating better decision-making.
Credits:
This script incorporates open-source elements with significant improvements to enhance functionality and user experience. All credit goes to itradesize for the SB + Macro boxes
TASC 2024.03 Rate of Directional Change█ OVERVIEW
This script implements the Rate of Directional Change (RODC) indicator introduced by Richard Poster in the "Taming The Effects Of Whipsaw" article featured in the March 2024 edition of TASC's Traders' Tips .
█ CONCEPTS
In his article, Richard Poster discusses an approach to potentially reduce false trend-following strategy entry signals due to whipsaws in forex data. The RODC indicator is central to this approach. The idea behind RODC is that one can characterize market whipsaw as alternating up and down ZigZag segments. By counting the number of up and down segments within a lookback window, the RODC indicator aims to identify if the window contains a significant whipsaw pattern:
RODC = 100 * Segments / Window Size (bars)
Larger RODC values suggest elevated whipsaw in the calculation window, while smaller values signify trending price activity.
█ CALCULATIONS
• For each price bar, the script iterates through the lookback window to identify up and down segments.
• If the price change between subsequent bars within the window is in the direction opposite to the current segment and exceeds the specified threshold , the calculation interprets the condition as a reversal point and the start of a new segment.
• The script uses the number of segments within the window to calculate RODC according to the above formula.
• Finally, the script applies a simple moving average to smoothen the RODC data.
Users can change the length of the lookback window , the threshold value, and the smoothing length in the "Inputs" tab of the script's settings.
Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression [LuxAlgo]Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression is an anchored version of Machine Learning: Gaussian Process Regression .
It implements Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), a popular machine-learning method capable of estimating underlying trends in prices as well as forecasting them. Users can set a Training Window by choosing 2 points. GPR will be calculated for the data between these 2 points.
Do remember that forecasting trends in the market is challenging, do not use this tool as a standalone for your trading decisions.
🔶 USAGE
When adding the indicator to the chart, users will be prompted to select a starting and ending point for the calculations, click on your chart to select those points.
Start & end point are named 'Anchor 1' & 'Anchor 2', the Training Window is located between these 2 points. Once both points are positioned, the Training Window is set, whereafter the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is calculated using data between both Anchors .
The blue line is the GPR fit, the red line is the GPR prediction, derived from data between the Training Window .
Two user settings controlling the trend estimate are available, Smooth and Sigma.
Smooth determines the smoothness of our estimate, with higher values returning smoother results suitable for longer-term trend estimates.
Sigma controls the amplitude of the forecast, with values closer to 0 returning results with a higher amplitude.
One of the advantages of the anchoring process is the ability for the user to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts and further understand how settings affect their accuracy.
The publication also shows the mean average (faint silver line), which indicates the average of the prices within the calculation window (between the anchors). This can be used as a reference point for the forecast, seeing how it deviates from the training window average.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Limited Training Window
The Training Window is limited due to matrix.new() limitations in size.
When the 2 points are too far from each other (as in the latter example), the line will end at the maximum limit, without giving a size error.
The red forecasted line is always given priority.
🔹 Positioning Anchors
Typically Anchor 1 is located further in history than Anchor 2 , however, placing Anchor 2 before Anchor 1 is perfectly possibly, and won't give issues.
🔶 SETTINGS
Anchor 1 / Anchor 2: both points will form the Training Window .
Forecasting Length: Forecasting horizon, determines how many bars in the 'future' are forecasted.
Smooth: Controls the degree of smoothness of the model fit.
Sigma: Noise variance. Controls the amplitude of the forecast, lower values will make it more sensitive to outliers.
Educational Inidicators - Ichimoku CloudThis indicator is part of the Indicator Educational Series, intended to help newer traders understand and interact with various indicators. The goal is to allow users to gain a stronger understanding of an indicator's underlying philosophy, and visually see how changes to an indicator's parameters affects the trades suggested by that indicator.
The scripts in this series are all open source, with the code broken up into logical section and notated so beginner users can also understand some PineScript fundamentals.
Please understand that no indicator presented in and of itself constitutes a complete trading strategy. Rather, this series is to help users determine which indicators make sense to them, and which ones to combine to create their own trading strategy. All material presented is purely for educational purposes.
Presented here is the Ichimoku Cloud.
The Ichimoku Cloud was developed by Goichi Hosada, and first published in the late 1960s. It is used by traders to understand price momentum, and help forecast future price movements.
The indicator at its core can be understood from four component parts:
The Conversion Line - An average of the highest and lowest price in a given window. Typically, this is a "fast" average, and as such, this line has the lowest period
The Base Line - An average of the highest and lowest price in a given window. This is a "slower" average than the Conversion Line, and as such should have a larger period than the Conversion Line
Leading Span A - The average of the Conversion Line and the Base Line
[*}Leading Span B - An average of the highest and lowest price in a given window. This is the "slowest" average of all three, and as such should have the largest period
When plotted, the Conversion Line (orange by default), Base Line (purple by default), Leading Span A (blue by default), and Leading Span B (red by defaults) are all drawn on the chart along with the price candles. The area between the Leading Span A and Leading Span B lines are also shaded depending on which of the two lines is greater: whenever Leading Span A is greater the area is shaded positively (blue by default), whenever Leading Span B is greater the area is shaded negatively (red by defaults).
One interesting feature of the Ichimoku Cloud is that it drawn a certain number of candles forward. What this means is that where the cloud is drawn on the chart is reflective of prices that have occurred a number of candles in the past. This is done intentionally to help traders see how the current price is moving in relation to historical price movements on the asset.
See below for how the indicators look in their default colors on the chart
These indicators can then be used to start analyzing the price movement, and making trade decisions.
The first inference we can make is the momentum of the price. Since the lines are drawn from averages of varying speeds, the shaded area between the Leading Span lines can tell us whether the momentum is bullish (up) or bearish (down).
Whenever Leading Span A, the faster of the two lines, is above Leading Span B, that means that price is moving upward faster than it typically has, ergo we are in Bullish Momentum. On the chart, this is indicated in two ways:
The area is shaded positively (blue by default)
A green upward triangle is added to the chart to indicate where the momentum first turned Bullish
Whenever Leading Span A is below Leading Span B, that means that price is moving downward faster than it typically has, ergo we are in Bearish Momentum. On the chart, this is indicated in two ways:
The area is shaded negatively (red by default)
A red downward triangle is added to the chart to indicate where the momentum first turned Bearish
The next inference we can make is possible trading points. When we're in a period of momentum, as determined above, we know that price is going up or down, depending on the momentum we're in. We can then use the Conversion Line, Base Line, and the Price itself to confirm a good trade price.
When the asset is in Bullish Momentum, and the Conversion Line, our fastest average, is above the Base Line, our mid speed average, we know that the price is coming up quickly in the short term. When the Base Line and current Price are also above the cloud, then we have triple confirmation that price is going up, and we should enter a Long position. On the chart, this point is indicated with a green flag.
When the asset is in Bearish Momentum, and the Conversion Line is below the Base Line, we know that the price is going down quickly in the short term. When the Base Line and current Price are also below the cloud, then we have triple confirmation that price is going down, and we should enter a Short position. On the chart, this point is indicated with a red flag.
The script presented here also allows users to customize the various parameters of the Ichimoku Cloud, and visually see how analysis is affected by these changes. This is designed to allow users to modify parameters as they see fit, within certain constraints, to find the best set for them. The lines, cloud, and chart indicators will all update automatically with the users' inputs.
Paytience DistributionPaytience Distribution Indicator User Guide
Overview:
The Paytience Distribution indicator is designed to visualize the distribution of any chosen data source. By default, it visualizes the distribution of a built-in Relative Strength Index (RSI). This guide provides details on its functionality and settings.
Distribution Explanation:
A distribution in statistics and data analysis represents the way values or a set of data are spread out or distributed over a range. The distribution can show where values are concentrated, values are absent or infrequent, or any other patterns. Visualizing distributions helps users understand underlying patterns and tendencies in the data.
Settings and Parameters:
Main Settings:
Window Size
- Description: This dictates the amount of data used to calculate the distribution.
- Options: A whole number (integer).
- Tooltip: A window size of 0 means it uses all the available data.
Scale
- Description: Adjusts the height of the distribution visualization.
- Options: Any integer between 20 and 499.
Round Source
- Description: Rounds the chosen data source to a specified number of decimal places.
- Options: Any whole number (integer).
Minimum Value
- Description: Specifies the minimum value you wish to account for in the distribution.
- Options: Any integer from 0 to 100.
- Tooltip: 0 being the lowest and 100 being the highest.
Smoothing
- Description: Applies a smoothing function to the distribution visualization to simplify its appearance.
- Options: Any integer between 1 and 20.
Include 0
- Description: Dictates whether zero should be included in the distribution visualization.
- Options: True (include) or False (exclude).
Standard Deviation
- Description: Enables the visualization of standard deviation, which measures the amount of variation or dispersion in the chosen data set.
- Tooltip: This is best suited for a source that has a vaguely Gaussian (bell-curved) distribution.
- Options: True (enable) or False (disable).
Color Options
- High Color and Low Color: Specifies colors for high and low data points.
- Standard Deviation Color: Designates a color for the standard deviation lines.
Example Settings:
Example Usage RSI
- Description: Enables the use of RSI as the data source.
- Options: True (enable) or False (disable).
RSI Length
- Description: Determines the period over which the RSI is calculated.
- Options: Any integer greater than 1.
Using an External Source:
To visualize the distribution of an external source:
Select the "Move to" option in the dropdown menu for the Paytience Distribution indicator on your chart.
Set it to the existing panel where your external data source is placed.
Navigate to "Pin to Scale" and pin the indicator to the same scale as your external source.
Indicator Logic and Functions:
Sinc Function: Used in signal processing, the sinc function ensures the elimination of aliasing effects.
Sinc Filter: A filtering mechanism which uses sinc function to provide estimates on the data.
Weighted Mean & Standard Deviation: These are statistical measures used to capture the central tendency and variability in the data, respectively.
Output and Visualization:
The indicator visualizes the distribution as a series of colored boxes, with the intensity of the color indicating the frequency of the data points in that range. Additionally, lines representing the standard deviation from the mean can be displayed if the "Standard Deviation" setting is enabled.
The example RSI, if enabled, is plotted along with its common threshold lines at 70 (upper) and 30 (lower).
Understanding the Paytience Distribution Indicator
1. What is a Distribution?
A distribution represents the spread of data points across different values, showing how frequently each value occurs. For instance, if you're looking at a stock's closing prices over a month, you may find that the stock closed most frequently around $100, occasionally around $105, and rarely around $110. Graphically visualizing this distribution can help you see the central tendencies, variability, and shape of your data distribution. This visualization can be essential in determining key trading points, understanding volatility, and getting an overview of the market sentiment.
2. The Rounding Mechanism
Every asset and dataset is unique. Some assets, especially cryptocurrencies or forex pairs, might have values that go up to many decimal places. Rounding these values is essential to generate a more readable and manageable distribution.
Why is Rounding Needed? If every unique value from a high-precision dataset was treated distinctly, the resulting distribution would be sparse and less informative. By rounding off, the values are grouped, making the distribution more consolidated and understandable.
Adjusting Rounding: The `Round Source` input allows users to determine the number of decimal places they'd like to consider. If you're working with an asset with many decimal places, adjust this setting to get a meaningful distribution. If the rounding is set too low for high precision assets, the distribution could lose its utility.
3. Standard Deviation and Oscillators
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. In the context of this indicator:
Use with Oscillators: When using oscillators like RSI, the standard deviation can provide insights into the oscillator's range. This means you can determine how much the oscillator typically deviates from its average value.
Setting Bounds: By understanding this deviation, traders can better set reasonable upper and lower bounds, identifying overbought or oversold conditions in relation to the oscillator's historical behavior.
4. Resampling
Resampling is the process of adjusting the time frame or value buckets of your data. In the context of this indicator, resampling ensures that the distribution is manageable and visually informative.
Resample Size vs. Window Size: The `Resample Resolution` dictates the number of bins or buckets the distribution will be divided into. On the other hand, the `Window Size` determines how much of the recent data will be considered. It's crucial to ensure that the resample size is smaller than the window size, or else the distribution will not accurately reflect the data's behavior.
Why Use Resampling? Especially for price-based sources, setting the window size around 500 (instead of 0) ensures that the distribution doesn't become too overloaded with data. When set to 0, the window size uses all available data, which may not always provide an actionable insight.
5. Uneven Sample Bins and Gaps
You might notice that the width of sample bins in the distribution is not uniform, and there can be gaps.
Reason for Uneven Widths: This happens because the indicator uses a 'resampled' distribution. The width represents the range of values in each bin, which might not be constant across bins. Some value ranges might have more data points, while others might have fewer.
Gaps in Distribution: Sometimes, there might be no data points in certain value ranges, leading to gaps in the distribution. These gaps are not flaws but indicate ranges where no values were observed.
In conclusion, the Paytience Distribution indicator offers a robust mechanism to visualize the distribution of data from various sources. By understanding its intricacies, users can make better-informed trading decisions based on the distribution and behavior of their chosen data source.
Profitunity - Beginner [TC]This indicator aggregates the knowledges of the first level of the Trading Chaos approach by Bill Williams. It uses the Market Facilitation Index (MFI) in conjunction with the type of bar(candle) to generate strong long and strong short signals.
General information
Bars numeration
All bars or candles could be numbered with the following algorithm. If we divide the candle for 3 equal parts from high to low. The highest third have the number 1, the middle one - 2, the lowest one - 3. Hence we can define the first number as the number of the third where the price opened, second - where the price closed. For example, if the price opened at the highest third and closed at the lowest one this candle has the number 13.
Trend defining
Also candles could be divided into three groups according to the trend condition: uptrend, downtrend, sideways. If the middle of the candle's trading range is above the high of the previous candle - it's uptrend candle, if below the low of the previous candle - it's downtrend candle, sideways in other candles.
Profitunity windows
According to Bill Williams MFI has 4 windows - fake, green, fade and squat. I am not going to describe here the methodology of MFI, but one thing you should know that the most valuable windows are green and squat. Green state is an indication of the true move on the market. Squat the sign that the increase in volume have not triggered the trend continuation and reverse is about to happen.
How to use?
You can use this script as the helper in automatic defining the type of candle. Indicator shows only green (green candle color) and squat (red candle color) MFI states. Add script to any timeframe and asset chart to see labels.
The "strong long" label flashes when 3 conditions are met:
1. Squat candle
2. Candle number 13
3. Downtrend candle
"Strong short" label flashes when:
1. Squat candle
2. Candle number 31
3. Uptrend candle
This indicator helps to find the trend reversal points, can be used in conjunction with other TA tools to find the entry points.
Rolling MACDThis indicator displays a Rolling Moving Average Convergence Divergence . Contrary to MACD indicators which use a fix time segment, RMACD calculates using a moving window defined by a time period (not a simple number of bars), so it shows better results.
This indicator is inspired by and use the Close & Inventory Bar Retracement Price Line to create an MACD in different timeframes.
█ CONCEPTS
If you are not already familiar with MACD, so look at Help Center will get you started www.tradingview.com
The typical MACD, short for moving average convergence/divergence, is a trading indicator used in technical analysis of stock prices, created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It is designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock's price.
The MACD indicator(or "oscillator") is a collection of three time series calculated from historical price data, most often the closing price. These three series are: the MACD series proper, the "signal" or "average" series, and the "divergence" series which is the difference between the two. The MACD series is the difference between a "fast" (short period) exponential moving average (EMA), and a "slow" (longer period) EMA of the price series. The average series is an EMA of the MACD series itself.
Because RMACD uses a moving window, it does not exhibit the jumpiness of MACD plots. You can see the more jagged MACD on the chart above. I think both can be useful to traders; up to you to decide which flavor works for you.
█ HOW TO USE IT
Load the indicator on an active chart (see the Help Center if you don't know how).
Time period
By default, the script uses an auto-stepping mechanism to adjust the time period of its moving window to the chart's timeframe. The following table shows chart timeframes and the corresponding time period used by the script. When the chart's timeframe is less than or equal to the timeframe in the first column, the second column's time period is used to calculate RMACD:
Chart Time
timeframe period
1min 🠆 1H
5min 🠆 4H
1H 🠆 1D
4H 🠆 3D
12H 🠆 1W
1D 🠆 1M
1W 🠆 3M
You can use the script's inputs to specify a fixed time period, which you can express in any combination of days, hours and minutes.
By default, the time period currently used is displayed in the lower-right corner of the chart. The script's inputs allow you to hide the display or change its size and location.
Minimum Window Size
This input field determines the minimum number of values to keep in the moving window, even if these values are outside the prescribed time period. This mitigates situations where a large time gap between two bars would cause the time window to be empty, which can occur in non-24x7 markets where large time gaps may separate contiguous chart bars, namely across holidays or trading sessions. For example, if you were using a 1D time period and there is a two-day gap between two bars, then no chart bars would fit in the moving window after the gap. The default value is 10 bars.
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This indicator should make trading easier and improve analysis. Nothing is worse than indicators that give confusingly different signals.
I hope you enjoy my new ideas
best regards
Chervolino
Rolling VWAP█ OVERVIEW
This indicator displays a Rolling Volume-Weighted Average Price. Contrary to VWAP indicators which reset at the beginning of a new time segment, RVWAP calculates using a moving window defined by a time period (not a simple number of bars), so it never resets.
█ CONCEPTS
If you are not already familiar with VWAP, our Help Center will get you started.
The typical VWAP is designed to be used on intraday charts, as it resets at the beginning of the day. Such VWAPs cannot be used on daily, weekly or monthly charts. Instead, this rolling VWAP uses a time period that automatically adjusts to the chart's timeframe. You can thus use RVWAP on any chart that includes volume information in its data feed.
Because RVWAP uses a moving window, it does not exhibit the jumpiness of VWAP plots that reset. You can see the more jagged VWAP on the chart above. We think both can be useful to traders; up to you to decide which flavor works for you.
█ HOW TO USE IT
Load the indicator on an active chart (see the Help Center if you don't know how).
Time period
By default, the script uses an auto-stepping mechanism to adjust the time period of its moving window to the chart's timeframe. The following table shows chart timeframes and the corresponding time period used by the script. When the chart's timeframe is less than or equal to the timeframe in the first column, the second column's time period is used to calculate RVWAP:
Chart Time
timeframe period
1min 🠆 1H
5min 🠆 4H
1H 🠆 1D
4H 🠆 3D
12H 🠆 1W
1D 🠆 1M
1W 🠆 3M
You can use the script's inputs to specify a fixed time period, which you can express in any combination of days, hours and minutes.
By default, the time period currently used is displayed in the lower-right corner of the chart. The script's inputs allow you to hide the display or change its size and location.
Minimum Window Size
This input field determines the minimum number of values to keep in the moving window, even if these values are outside the prescribed time period. This mitigates situations where a large time gap between two bars would cause the time window to be empty, which can occur in non-24x7 markets where large time gaps may separate contiguous chart bars, namely across holidays or trading sessions. For example, if you were using a 1D time period and there is a two-day gap between two bars, then no chart bars would fit in the moving window after the gap. The default value is 10 bars.
█ NOTES
If you are interested in VWAP indicators, you may find the VWAP Auto Anchored built-in indicator worth a try.
For Pine Script™ coders
The heart of this script's calculations uses the `totalForTimeWhen()` function from the ConditionalAverages library published by PineCoders . It works by maintaining an array of values included in a time period, but without a for loop requiring a lookback from the current bar, so it is much more efficient.
We write our Pine Script™ code using the recommendations in the User Manual's Style Guide .
Look first. Then leap.
