AMD EXTENED LINE'S EXTENDED LINE EDITION (CONTINUE OR FALL)

20 Jan

If you've been following me with AMD, we're pretty much out at this point, as we've been targeting the trade since 93, and there isn't much point to miss a few extra percentage points on the topside at the risk of losing all or much of the profits.

HOWEVER, there are still trades to the topside, as far as trades heading to the bottom side.

Marked in thick green and thick red are the TWO STRONGEST support and rejection trends I could find. Do more exist? Maybe, but you'll need a better analyst that me to find those.

Light red are steep support trends that have been building on top of each other (stacking)
Think of this like a skyscraper being built.


All indicators point that we are nearing a top. However, this means nothing as short term indicators can theoretically keep pumping the price over the long term targets, which would see numbers at 200+

Notice the time frame of the chart, 2h, meaning it won't last for more than a couple weeks and you'll likely have a whole new set of trends.

A move like this into earnings is going to be the big question.
179
189
are two really strong rejection lines. May not be exact, but close. You really need to analyze in real time at this point because move will happen faster and faster.

I would say, should the price not hold 171.00, I would wait to see what happens in the short term, and try and buy the dip if it occurs pre earnings, with a potential trade before, on or right after earnings. I would then be waiting on topside for a short entry rather than pushing my luck as a bull.

If you follow me with trades, you'll know that we essentially speak in probability. Meaning, at or above 189, I'm more likely to screw up than make a good trade, and if I screw up, there is a lot of downside showing, which will do absolutely nothing to cover the mistake (loss). Having said that, if you're a short term trader and familiar with short term trading, yes there are absolutely still chances to trade above this level should it occur.
We would also say, there is a better than average chance that should I wait for some of these topside targets to hit and enter short, I have a better than average chance to both profit, and make more overall money, than trying to time out more really short term trades.
It's all about profitability, risk, percentages, and patience. Waiting for the RIGHT trade IS 1000% better than jumping into a trade you missed because you have FOMO.
There will almost always be another buy, there will almost always be another stock moving up the percentage you missed. Idk, what it would be called in formal terms, but I call it the sniper strategy.

Good luck!!
I've attached all previous AMD charts to this chart.

25 Jan

Nota

AMD SELL WARNING #1 Triggered at 180
This does not mean the price will not go any higher, it means, risk increases over this price target and you should use caution.

29 Jan

Nota

I've seen some reddit posts lately talking about some absolutely ridiculous price predictions. Try not to get pulled into that FOMO. Remember, in reality, the price has gone up essentially 100% (Doubled your money, you put in 1 and take out 2, profit of 1 or 100%).
S&P avg is like 7 or 8% a year (I put in 1 and I take out 1.07 or 1.08, profit of 7 or 8 cents, or 7-8%, OVER AN ENTIRE YEAR ON AVERAGE, MEANING, SOME MORE, SOME LESS)
When you compare AMD currently to reality (especially if you've been following this idea for awhile). It has gone up nearly 100% in ABOUT 3 MONTHS.
So definitely take a minute to do an emotion check, and realize that the odds earnings spikes AMD to 300 or 400 is completely out of reality. POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE.
Second take a minute to ask, maybe the move we saw over the past few months was in prep for earnings, meaning, it will already be priced in. Is there more topside with that thought in mind?

Right now, I see 208 and 220 as potential highs based on earnings.
There is potential to see profits taken before earnings, and then a big move to the upside, There is also potential to see the move to the upside before earnings, with an afterhours move that will bounce all over the place, and ultimately top out and start to retrace this movement.

All in, I'd prefer nobody loses money if they don't have to.
SO, please take a minute, do an emotions check.
Step back and view the chart as whole.
Make your own decisions. My opinion is just that, an opinion. I could be right, I could be wrong, I could be lying to all of you right now about everything I just said. The best advice I can give you to protect you from yourself is to collect all the information, from as many sources as you can, then start to verify what you believe to be true, then make a decision based on that information.
(example, maybe you use my chart to set 1 price target, you use another chart to find a trend, you use another chart to pick up a longer term bear target, you use a major stock information source to get a range of prices, you use AI to summarize all the fundamentals, you check multiple ETFS to see who owns what...) See what I mean?

Seriously though, GOOD LUCK, BE GREEDY, MAKE TONS OF MONEY! I hope you all have made a decent profit already, and I hope you continue to make more. 2024 might be a bad year for some people, but if you learn to trade in two directions and pick stocks with some great long term potential, it doesn't matter where the price moves, it matters more that you can manage risk and emotion. Everyone loses, but some people never recover, and others, use loss as a super power.
Fail till you win, win till you fail. Repeat.

It's a mindset.
If you have 90,000 and you lose 89,000.
If your initial reaction is I've lost all my money, I quit, then you're missing a huge chance to learn a major lesson and improve yourself.
Every situation has a positive, you just need to find it because nobody will find it for you.
Instead//
If you have 90,000 and you lose 89,000. You should be thinking, "I still have $1000, time to get my money back" and then studying the loss. What went wrong, how did it go wrong, what point did it go wrong, why did it go wrong. Basically, if you don't see my point yet, emotions control a lot of decisions whether you realize it or not, you want that in a lot of things, but you want to be in control of the decisions when it comes to trading, not your emotions.
And when you ask yourself those questions about what went wrong, it's what did "I" "ME" "YOU" "THE PERSON WHO MADE THE TRADE" do and how can I learn? If you blame some random news event about your loss, you're likely stuck in a mental bias and your ego is trying to protect yourself from a mistake. In the end, you clicked the buy button, nobody else, find that deep reason why. What made you so sure, yet so wrong?

31 Jan

Nota

Anyone catch the drop?
I don't know because I haven't looked at the chart since last week, but I do know both trends that broke were fairly weak, and both trends that remain, are fairly strong. If I was planning on jumping back in, I'd likely wait for the strong trends.
personally, I like that 145 number.

2 Feb

Nota

Careful on this trend break and return, you could potentially see a sizeable drop in a short period of time.
Will it drop?
idk, but it's worth noting as a potential outcome based on indicators and price action.