AMZN Update: 02/05/2024

6 Feb

As always, I have been tracking an ALT count along with my primary. After the release / reaction to the earnings report, it makes my ALT much more likely than before. The main reason I say this is due to MACD. With the recent strength of the rise in price, it caused MACD to make a new high. It hasn't breached the previous high MACD made during wave III, but it did breach the A wave high made on 02 Feb 2023. This has me watching much more closely to determine if this next move down is for wave 2 of V or ((C)) of IV. They will both have the same structure but much different endpoints and timeframe.

First, let's discuss a few reasons for the possibility this next drop is 2 of V.
1. The low MACD made on 10 May was made during the wave (A) which is standard.
2. On 05 June MACD made a high during wave 3, which is common except wave A should have made the highest reading.
3. On 02 Feb MACD made a new high on both the 1HR & 4HR charts for this move up from the $81.44 low.
4. Price already made a 57% decline from the wave III high to the $81 low.

If the drop from July 2021 would have been longer in duration, I would easily say wave IV is complete and this move up from $81 is wave 1 of V. However, I expected wave IV to be at least 4-5 years in duration, not 2. With the current price action and the way MACD is shaping up to be though, I am now 50/50 that wave IV is done. To many things are starting to stack up in favor of IV ending in Jan 2023. Either way, I feel this move higher is ending soon. If you don't already, I suggest setting stop limits to protect profits.

I am starting an experiment, and I am allowing y'all to be front and center to it. As you notice I have yellow and orange fibs on the chart that are almost exactly the same. Normally I always base my fibs on pre, during, and post market price action. However, I want to see which is more accurate to use between the pre, during, and post market, or open market action only. The orange fibs are based off of price during open market hours only and the yellow fibs are based on my standard guides/rules. Let's see which is better!!