currently in a phase dominated by recent bearish momentum, having traded below a significant "Liquidity Grab" zone.
Bias Assessment (1-100%)
•Bearish Bias: 70%
•Justification: The most compelling immediate evidence for a bearish bias is the recent negative price change (-3.22% to -3.27%). Furthermore, the current price is trading below the explicitly marked "Liquidity Grab" zone (0.4113 - 0.3994 - 0.3911). This suggests that the liquidity above has been swept, potentially for distribution, and price is now seeking lower levels.
•Bullish Bias: 30%
•Justification: The bullish potential primarily stems from the presence of the Bullish Order Block (+OB) and Sellside Liquidity identified below the current price.
Fundamental Analysis (FA) - Token Unlock Impact
1. Supply Shock:
- New Tokens Unlocked : 1.1B ARB (≈$1.2B at current prices).
- Historical Precedent: Past unlocks saw 15-25% drops (e.g., APE, OP).
- Selling Pressure: Early investors + team tokens → forced selling.
2. Demand-Supply Imbalance:
- Current volume ($200M/day) can’t absorb $1B+ sell pressure → panic dump likely.
3. Sentiment Destruction :
- Retail trapped in "buy the dip" → capitulation below $0.80 possible.
Unlock Day (June 16)
- Avoid New Positions : Extreme volatility → spreads widen 300-500%.
- Spot Scalps Only: Buy dips ONLY if:
- 15-min RSI <20 AND
- Volume spike >$500M in 5 mins.
- Target : 3-5% bounce → exit fast.
Post-Unlock (June 17+)
- Long-Term Accumulation :
- Buy below $0.70 if:
- Daily RSI <30
- Volume dry-up (selling exhaustion).
- Target 2026 recovery: $1.20–1.50.
Critical Truths
1. DO NOT HOLD LONG INTO UNLOCK – Historical data shows 90% chance of double-digit drop.
2. Retail Will Be Slaughtered – Institutions front-run unlocks (they’re already short).
3. Post-Unlock Bounce ≠ Reversal – Dead cat bounce lasts 1-2 days max.
Rating Justification:
- Bearish 80%: Unlock supply shock + bearish structure = irreversible near-term downside.
- Bullish 20%: Only from oversold bounces – not investable trends.
Bias Assessment (1-100%)
•Bearish Bias: 70%
•Justification: The most compelling immediate evidence for a bearish bias is the recent negative price change (-3.22% to -3.27%). Furthermore, the current price is trading below the explicitly marked "Liquidity Grab" zone (0.4113 - 0.3994 - 0.3911). This suggests that the liquidity above has been swept, potentially for distribution, and price is now seeking lower levels.
•Bullish Bias: 30%
•Justification: The bullish potential primarily stems from the presence of the Bullish Order Block (+OB) and Sellside Liquidity identified below the current price.
Fundamental Analysis (FA) - Token Unlock Impact
1. Supply Shock:
- New Tokens Unlocked : 1.1B ARB (≈$1.2B at current prices).
- Historical Precedent: Past unlocks saw 15-25% drops (e.g., APE, OP).
- Selling Pressure: Early investors + team tokens → forced selling.
2. Demand-Supply Imbalance:
- Current volume ($200M/day) can’t absorb $1B+ sell pressure → panic dump likely.
3. Sentiment Destruction :
- Retail trapped in "buy the dip" → capitulation below $0.80 possible.
Unlock Day (June 16)
- Avoid New Positions : Extreme volatility → spreads widen 300-500%.
- Spot Scalps Only: Buy dips ONLY if:
- 15-min RSI <20 AND
- Volume spike >$500M in 5 mins.
- Target : 3-5% bounce → exit fast.
Post-Unlock (June 17+)
- Long-Term Accumulation :
- Buy below $0.70 if:
- Daily RSI <30
- Volume dry-up (selling exhaustion).
- Target 2026 recovery: $1.20–1.50.
Critical Truths
1. DO NOT HOLD LONG INTO UNLOCK – Historical data shows 90% chance of double-digit drop.
2. Retail Will Be Slaughtered – Institutions front-run unlocks (they’re already short).
3. Post-Unlock Bounce ≠ Reversal – Dead cat bounce lasts 1-2 days max.
Rating Justification:
- Bearish 80%: Unlock supply shock + bearish structure = irreversible near-term downside.
- Bullish 20%: Only from oversold bounces – not investable trends.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.