Arbitrum; soon

1 Apr

Looks like a correction almost done. There's also a chance for a truncated fifth or a double bottom here stopping at the VWAP:



It all depends on how btc moves from here.

In case of a new low I'd be looking at the lower 1.3x$ range:



with the possibility of a liquidation event sending us towards the macro POC currently sub 1.20$.

11 Apr

Nota

So far has been holding the previously shown VWAP cluster and there's an obvious way to see a finished count here:



Counting the wave C as a contracting diag though could still deliver the suggested lower targets:



And in case of a diag here, wave 4 might not be done yet, even wave 3 might not be done yet - that's the fun part (not) with diags, they can keep going... either way, zones of interest are unchanged.

13 Apr

Nota

Brutal! Got the liquidation event, but it went one level deeper than the Macro POC and hit the Macro VAL around 1.05$ (on binance anyway, depending on the exchange there was even more pain).

There is some nice geometry in arithmetic view, hitting the pitchfork median line and a bigger trendline and bouncing off of it from there:



As for the count... I'll admit that I have difficulty getting a straight forward count here that doesn't have some kind of proportions that aren't ideal, like this:



So either it just isn't very ideal, it isn't done yet or it's not an impulse here. I am mindful of the low being taken out at least one more time, but here's an alternative:

Placing the white wave 5 one pivot earlier, the whole correction could be seen as a sideways combo, starting with a flat and finishing with a zigzag:

14 Apr

Nota

Not really much to add to yesterday's update. I mentioned that I was mindful of the low being taken out again. We did get a noticeable wick down, but are already back up above the macro VAL. That one really needs to hold. Seeing a close below that and below 1$ would not look good.

28 Apr

Nota

Not out of the woods yet. Currently sitting below the Macro POC. Needs to get above and stay there to have more conviction in upside:



Macro VAL has moved lower due to PA at these levels.

Some relevant geometry, needs to get above that too:



More relevant geometry. In arithmetic view these Pitchforks seem to want to hold the PA, with the yellow lines currently as resistance:



Same pitchforks in log view are currently giving resistance lines:



Should we actually get another move downwards, while staying with the bullish count, this would be one way to look at it:



Truncations aren't something to primarily assume, but seeing how deep the yellow 3 wicked in this count, this would certainly be a fitting place to get a truncated 5, meaning that the yellow 5 would not necessarily make a new low.