AUDJPY - 15 December 2021

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Current Market Condition:
Market Structure (MS) & Order Flow (OF):
Daily: Bullish OF but with strong bearish momentum, price is now retracing after slightly taking out the previous swing low.
4H: Bullish OF, price give a 4H bearish CHoCH right after it gives a BOS to upside, we may assume that price is now in the pullback of the 4H bullish leg.
1H/15m: Bearish OF, price broke the 15m swing low then immediately give a 15m bullish CHoCH. However, the 15m CHoCH might just be a LQD as it takes out the weak high and mitigates the 15m supply above. Price atm respecting the supply chain. Price is now moving correctively back up to the recent major supply. As we have a prevailing supply chain formed, I expect this 15m supply to hold to at least take out the LQ below. Whether price can put in a new 15m LL, depends on whether the 15m S2D below the LQ can hold or not.

Momentum:
15m: Correctively retrace to the upside showing there is insufficient bullish momentum to sustain the move.

Liquidity Condition:
Price took upside LQ recently and tons of LQ stacked at the downside.

Trade Idea: Short
If we get a confirmation after price tap into our major 15m supply above, I will be more than happy to play a short there and at least target the LQ below.

Penafian

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