A whipsaw through 0.64 to H1 demand at 0.6360/0.6380 may be seen
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Closing a touch off worst levels, price action continues to languish beneath supply from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised this area comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642.
April 21 low at 0.6253 is visible as the next possible support band on this chart; breaking lower reveals demand at 0.5926/0.6062 may come under fire.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe.
Supply-turned demand at 0.6432/0.6462, as you can see, has so far withstood upside attempts. Sellers in this market likely have eyeballs on a break of demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Overall, the noted harmonic pattern is still in motion and remains valid until breaking the X point at 0.6684.
H1 timeframe:
Since the beginning of the week, H1 price has been condensing between 0.6377/0.6433 in the form of an ascending channel. A pickup in USD demand weighed on AUD/USD Wednesday, sending action beneath channel support towards 0.64, albeit after a retest at the underside of 0.6450/the 100-period simple moving average at 0.6434.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
Intraday trade has price testing 0.64, with a break unmasking nearby demand at 0.6360/0.6380, an area that held price higher at the beginning of the month. It is essentially the same zone as the current H4 demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
With room for H4 price to nudge lower, a whipsaw through 0.64 into H1 demand at 0.6360/0.6380 could be in the offing. This may be viewed as a buy signal upon forming a H1 close back above 0.64.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery.
April’s 370-pip advance has, as you can see, landed May within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, an area intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Closing a touch off worst levels, price action continues to languish beneath supply from 0.6618/0.6544. It should also be emphasised this area comes with a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6578 and a nearby 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642.
April 21 low at 0.6253 is visible as the next possible support band on this chart; breaking lower reveals demand at 0.5926/0.6062 may come under fire.
H4 timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe.
Supply-turned demand at 0.6432/0.6462, as you can see, has so far withstood upside attempts. Sellers in this market likely have eyeballs on a break of demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
Overall, the noted harmonic pattern is still in motion and remains valid until breaking the X point at 0.6684.
H1 timeframe:
Since the beginning of the week, H1 price has been condensing between 0.6377/0.6433 in the form of an ascending channel. A pickup in USD demand weighed on AUD/USD Wednesday, sending action beneath channel support towards 0.64, albeit after a retest at the underside of 0.6450/the 100-period simple moving average at 0.6434.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
Intraday trade has price testing 0.64, with a break unmasking nearby demand at 0.6360/0.6380, an area that held price higher at the beginning of the month. It is essentially the same zone as the current H4 demand at 0.6356/0.6384.
With room for H4 price to nudge lower, a whipsaw through 0.64 into H1 demand at 0.6360/0.6380 could be in the offing. This may be viewed as a buy signal upon forming a H1 close back above 0.64.
Penafian
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