AUD/USD: Tech outlook and review...
Kicking off this morning’s report with a quick look at the weekly chart, we can see that buyers and sellers remain battling for position within the walls of a support area penciled in at 0.7849-0.7752. This zone has a strong history and held well as support during the month of August, thus there’s a good chance that we may see history repeat itself here. In support of the current weekly zone, a strong daily demand base logged at 0.7786-0.7838 is seen painted within its boundaries. While as of current price the market is bid from this daily barrier, traders might want to note that should this area give way, the next port of call will likely be a nearby broken daily Quasimodo line seen at 0.7740.
As expected, H4 price drove lower in opening trade on Monday and attempted to breach the 0.78 handle. The unit, as far as we can tell, is well-bid from this psychological level given that the number is positioned within the higher-timeframe support areas!
Suggestions: As of current price, we see two possible setups:
1. Wait for H4 price to CLOSE above the nearby mid-level resistance at 0.7850, and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter, targeting the 0.79 handle, followed closely by a broken Quasimodo line at 0.7917.
2. As stop-loss orders are still likely active beneath 0.78, a whipsaw through this number in the shape of a H4 buying tail (pin bar) would be attractive. Once/if this is seen, traders could look to become buyers on the candle close, targeting 0.7850 as an initial take-profit zone.
Data points to consider: RBA interest rate decision and statement at 4.30am. FOMC member Powell speaks at 1.30pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 0.78 region (watch for a H4 pin-bar candle to whipsaw through this number before pulling the trigger, stop loss: ideally beyond the pin bar’s tail). Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.7850 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a H4 bullish candle to form in the shape of a full or near-full-bodied candle following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
As expected, H4 price drove lower in opening trade on Monday and attempted to breach the 0.78 handle. The unit, as far as we can tell, is well-bid from this psychological level given that the number is positioned within the higher-timeframe support areas!
Suggestions: As of current price, we see two possible setups:
1. Wait for H4 price to CLOSE above the nearby mid-level resistance at 0.7850, and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter, targeting the 0.79 handle, followed closely by a broken Quasimodo line at 0.7917.
2. As stop-loss orders are still likely active beneath 0.78, a whipsaw through this number in the shape of a H4 buying tail (pin bar) would be attractive. Once/if this is seen, traders could look to become buyers on the candle close, targeting 0.7850 as an initial take-profit zone.
Data points to consider: RBA interest rate decision and statement at 4.30am. FOMC member Powell speaks at 1.30pm GMT+1.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 0.78 region (watch for a H4 pin-bar candle to whipsaw through this number before pulling the trigger, stop loss: ideally beyond the pin bar’s tail). Watch for H4 price to engulf 0.7850 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (waiting for a H4 bullish candle to form in the shape of a full or near-full-bodied candle following the retest is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
Penafian
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