Dolar Australia / Dolar A.S.Singkat
Credible resistance remains on AU
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD is found holding gains south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied by a trendline resistance (0.7031). With the likelihood of price revisiting the said levels this week, pencilling in nearby supply at 0.6618/0.6544, sited just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, could be an idea in the event we explore higher ground.
A move to the downside, on the other hand, could refocus the spotlight on demand at 0.5926/0.6062.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe as we head into the final week of April. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Price action, although reaching lows at 0.6253 last Tuesday, has had a hard time testing demand plotted at 0.6192/0.6247. Striking this zone will likely be enough to tempt short sellers out of the said Gartley formation to reduce risk to breakeven.
Despite the lack of enthusiasm from sellers, the current Gartley pattern remains valid until we break the X-point at 0.6684.
H1 timeframe:
0.6350, along with a trendline resistance-turned support (0.6444), contained downside in early London Friday (a noted area of support in Friday’s analysis), and invited an approach to 0.64 by the close.
Interestingly, above 0.64, there’s little stopping the pair from reaching supply at 0.6461/0.6435 which blends with a three-drive pattern, terminating around the 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6438.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north, traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
Short-term:
From a shorter-term perspective, the H4 harmonic Gartley pattern around 0.6433 remains credible resistance. Should H1 price connect with supply at 0.6461/0.6435 and complete the three-drive pattern around 0.6438, intraday sellers may make an appearance and target 0.64 as initial support.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The recovery move, alongside April’s advance so far, has landed the unit within striking distance of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
AUD/USD is found holding gains south of a 61.8% Fib level at 0.6449, accompanied by a trendline resistance (0.7031). With the likelihood of price revisiting the said levels this week, pencilling in nearby supply at 0.6618/0.6544, sited just south of a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6642, could be an idea in the event we explore higher ground.
A move to the downside, on the other hand, could refocus the spotlight on demand at 0.5926/0.6062.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The harmonic Gartley formation, boasting a defining limit at the 78.6% Fib level from 0.6433, remains a focal point on the H4 timeframe as we head into the final week of April. Technicians will also note additional Fibonacci studies around this area in the form of a 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6421 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6420.
Price action, although reaching lows at 0.6253 last Tuesday, has had a hard time testing demand plotted at 0.6192/0.6247. Striking this zone will likely be enough to tempt short sellers out of the said Gartley formation to reduce risk to breakeven.
Despite the lack of enthusiasm from sellers, the current Gartley pattern remains valid until we break the X-point at 0.6684.
H1 timeframe:
0.6350, along with a trendline resistance-turned support (0.6444), contained downside in early London Friday (a noted area of support in Friday’s analysis), and invited an approach to 0.64 by the close.
Interestingly, above 0.64, there’s little stopping the pair from reaching supply at 0.6461/0.6435 which blends with a three-drive pattern, terminating around the 127.2% Fib ext. level at 0.6438.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 remains a point of interest to the upside, though in order to reach this far north, traders must first contend with the noted daily resistances.
Short-term:
From a shorter-term perspective, the H4 harmonic Gartley pattern around 0.6433 remains credible resistance. Should H1 price connect with supply at 0.6461/0.6435 and complete the three-drive pattern around 0.6438, intraday sellers may make an appearance and target 0.64 as initial support.
Penafian
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