Based on the chart and three math models -- ARIMA(5,2,1), ARIMA(0,1,0), and Monte Carlo simulation using past 100 trading days -- BABA was trading below its expected projected value by over 5% prior to January 2nd. Projecting forward 20 days, the expected 20 day forecast from the Monte Carlo is 189 with a return volatility of 12%. Additionally, this is supported by the ARIMA(5,2,1) forecast with an expected value of 187. The chart also indicats an upward trend in the form of a wedge with a strong resistance at ~165.
From a fundamental standpoint, BABA shows significant operating margin of over 30%. This outperforms both AMZN and EBAY operating margin which are sitting at 4% and 26% respectively. Additionally, a growing middle class in Asia and multiple "Buy" ratings from analysts further support the stocks growth. One should keep a close eye on the Chinese econometrics as this could have a stronger impact on the BABA stock than metrics from the U.S. economy. On a more recent note, the Trump tax plan shouldn't have a significant effect on the stock.
From a fundamental standpoint, BABA shows significant operating margin of over 30%. This outperforms both AMZN and EBAY operating margin which are sitting at 4% and 26% respectively. Additionally, a growing middle class in Asia and multiple "Buy" ratings from analysts further support the stocks growth. One should keep a close eye on the Chinese econometrics as this could have a stronger impact on the BABA stock than metrics from the U.S. economy. On a more recent note, the Trump tax plan shouldn't have a significant effect on the stock.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
Closed positions on 170, 175, and 180 Calls when BABA hit $195.80 to 120% return on positions.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.