Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.Panjang
BABA: Short term targets (2-3 months out)--Part 1
Happy new year. Don't expect me to post my analysis here regularly as I am not going to. So enjoy (if you like) what I have.
2021 was a monster year, tons better than 2020 (I thought that was a monster year). Hope you all are killing it too.
I have decent size position in BABA (250K) and it is in my best interest to keep my technicals up to date. I just redoing this and it will come in two parts.
What you see here is MONTHLY chart and it is very evident that 119.xx was a MAJOR support and I notified few of my friends to get going in this. You also notice that 137.xx is very clear and will happen next week. Going above and beyond can be little tricky as this hits a ton of cloud (Ichimoku). What it really needs is volume and this can be missing to seend this higher before this month end.
My theory is that this was one was the worst name to own in 2021 and plenty of investors prolly have to dispose this as part of "tax wash sell" and as a rule they cannot buy this name again for 30 days (I hope I am right on this...not a CPA). Mostly this sell happens last few days of Dec. Considering this has actually occured, more and more people are just watching this from the sidelines wishing they can get in but they cannot.
While this rise is partly news based (Charlie Munger) and coincidence is that it happened right around 119 level.
Mind you this is monthly chart you are looking at. With this hitting 137.xx next week, my trades will be all be green with 63+ more days to go before expiry.
Few catalysts working for this name:
1. China names are all beaten down and majority in oversold conditions. Go check YINN
2. Value is amazing at this current price point.
3. Current mkt has some kind of rotation going on.
4. Upcoming earnings
Given some of these, anything above 143-185 is though the thick cloud and going through this requires momentum (mass x velocity). So my take from now till end of Jan (2022) is that it will hang around 137-143 and then "mass" will coming with few days to spare before the earnings, it can go through the path of "most resistence" and should see 157.xx--185.xx if the numbers reported are promising and upbeat.
For now I am watching 137.xx to come and stall near 143.xx
More in part 2.
2021 was a monster year, tons better than 2020 (I thought that was a monster year). Hope you all are killing it too.
I have decent size position in BABA (250K) and it is in my best interest to keep my technicals up to date. I just redoing this and it will come in two parts.
What you see here is MONTHLY chart and it is very evident that 119.xx was a MAJOR support and I notified few of my friends to get going in this. You also notice that 137.xx is very clear and will happen next week. Going above and beyond can be little tricky as this hits a ton of cloud (Ichimoku). What it really needs is volume and this can be missing to seend this higher before this month end.
My theory is that this was one was the worst name to own in 2021 and plenty of investors prolly have to dispose this as part of "tax wash sell" and as a rule they cannot buy this name again for 30 days (I hope I am right on this...not a CPA). Mostly this sell happens last few days of Dec. Considering this has actually occured, more and more people are just watching this from the sidelines wishing they can get in but they cannot.
While this rise is partly news based (Charlie Munger) and coincidence is that it happened right around 119 level.
Mind you this is monthly chart you are looking at. With this hitting 137.xx next week, my trades will be all be green with 63+ more days to go before expiry.
Few catalysts working for this name:
1. China names are all beaten down and majority in oversold conditions. Go check YINN
2. Value is amazing at this current price point.
3. Current mkt has some kind of rotation going on.
4. Upcoming earnings
Given some of these, anything above 143-185 is though the thick cloud and going through this requires momentum (mass x velocity). So my take from now till end of Jan (2022) is that it will hang around 137-143 and then "mass" will coming with few days to spare before the earnings, it can go through the path of "most resistence" and should see 157.xx--185.xx if the numbers reported are promising and upbeat.
For now I am watching 137.xx to come and stall near 143.xx
More in part 2.
Penafian
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