My BTC Long hypothesis

20 Dis 2018

Pay attention to the following points:

Historical data and how the bottom was identified\pattern
200 Weekly moving average and its role
Sloping trend line (downwards) shows consistency
Volume

Note: I believe the uptrend in the past days is to hit the 200 W MA (resistance) and then downwards to continue the bear trend.

20 Dis 2018

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Closerup image

11 Jan 2019

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11 Jan 2019

Nota

I'm not going to try to forecast the sideways movements as this would be credulous. Pay note how we move or trace towards the 20 Week Moving Average.

13 Jan 2019

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Just some finer details (updated 20 Weekly moving average and possible sideways movement before the next major drop

20 Jan 2019

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How we are tracking the 20 week moving average. (note, error on the txt for 200 Weekly EMA)

6 Feb 2019

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The 200 weekly MA is acting as the resistance and the 300 weekly MA is acting as the https://support...https://www.tradingview.com/x/r4XVqFaX/

14 Feb 2019

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How are we tracking?

14 Feb 2019

Nota

14 Feb 2019

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Monthly candles. We have had 6 straight months of bearish candles, which is more than previous trends. 5 was the longest. Note another indicator on the chart where ADX and DI indactor shows the buying and selling is squeezed to the point of balance and hence a trigger for reversal as per the previous downtrend in 2014/2015

12 Mac 2019

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Progress update

17 Mac 2019

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Daily 128 EMA has been an accurate resistance level. Currently 4200 is the resistance roof.

21 Mac 2019

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It seems its going to hit a number of resistances , the horizontal resistance (red) the sloping resistance (black) and the 128 D, MA resistance. We also have daily RSI approaching over 80% (overbought) and volume getting lower than before at the resistance(red). If there is a possibility that it passes through these, then the 200 D, MA will be a major resistance. . Long term trend is still bearish. I would sell before we get to these junctures,

22 Mac 2019

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Another indication of the coming move. Refer to the RSI and Stock RSI

4 Apr 2019

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Who was to guess it would sky rocket higher than some key resistances. Interesting what was also potentially missed(I did) was a inverse head and shoulder? You be the judge. Going to basics, the 50 Weekly MA will be the next resistance at about $5280. Some people say 5500 and 6000 the ultimate resistance. Observation>e BTC hit top at $5275 and then a 20% retrace?. The Weekly 20 MA is a strong support for a pullback, at $4100 but we can't see it falling that back. My guess moving forward, over extended and a re-tracement to 4500 (.618 fib)

4 Apr 2019

Nota

tradingview.com/chart/gH9tO8tq/

4 Apr 2019

Nota

10 Apr 2019

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As its work in progress, with new information, we need to tweak our charts and expectations. after many Weekly green candles on the we expect a
good pullback\consolidation . What goes up must come down. Its been proven many times of this nature, and we use the previous and current RSI levels +
the Weekly 100 MA and 200 MA to confirm this, as well as. That being one is resistance and the other support.

10 Apr 2019

Nota

What are the 100 and 200 Weekly MA values as we speak?
$5262 and $4136 .
This fits in nice with the Fib metrix, the current trent and with the assumption that we will soon have a restracement because of the RSI value range matching July 2016 high range in the "accumulation" phase of the cycle.

21 Apr 2019

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Another progress report.
Both the slope resistance and previous support in Oct 2017 is now acting as resistances.
The Weekly 50 SMA also acting as a resistance.

21 Apr 2019

Nota

NVT indicator and previous RSI high indicator says we are close to reversal.
Chart includes slope line from 2015, historical RSI and NVT events that support peaks and reversals.