BTCUSD shortterm: cloudy but calm, with chance of meatballs.
Disclaimer: It's been really hard to count the waves since the start of 2023, not helped by erratic political and geopolitical movements.
These counts are based on super-basic Elliot Wave rules:
- 5 wave movements (3 impulses, 2 correctives)
- Wave 2 is never a triangle, often retraces 61.8%
- Wave 3 is never the shortest, often the longest
- Wave 4 is opp in nature of Wave 2 (impulse vs triangle)
- Wave 5 tend to see hidden divergences
The tension that I have with these counts is that I have not yet seen a 'proper' macro 2nd wave retracement of 61.8%.
While it is customary with Elliot Wave counts, however, it is not always necessary, even if I opine for it.
Could we go straight to 100k or 200k from here? Perhaps.
Of course, the probability is always there (with crypto you never know~), cautious optimism dictates that we need a breather ever since we rallied through 2023, from 2022's bear market.
While the price has been sideways for 1.x months, it plays out as a bullish pennant, a sign of accumulation.
And there isn't a clear indication of a bearish divergence either.
Heck, it's not even oversold (RSI) territories yet.
So I'm inclined to see a few more rallies before market sentiment truly shifts to doom and gloom.
Again, cautious optimism, because there are still curveballs on the horizon -- a meaty concoction of geopolitical tensions with US politics and financial policies to fully iron out.
We could just be approaching the calm before the storm.
These counts are based on super-basic Elliot Wave rules:
- 5 wave movements (3 impulses, 2 correctives)
- Wave 2 is never a triangle, often retraces 61.8%
- Wave 3 is never the shortest, often the longest
- Wave 4 is opp in nature of Wave 2 (impulse vs triangle)
- Wave 5 tend to see hidden divergences
The tension that I have with these counts is that I have not yet seen a 'proper' macro 2nd wave retracement of 61.8%.
While it is customary with Elliot Wave counts, however, it is not always necessary, even if I opine for it.
Could we go straight to 100k or 200k from here? Perhaps.
Of course, the probability is always there (with crypto you never know~), cautious optimism dictates that we need a breather ever since we rallied through 2023, from 2022's bear market.
While the price has been sideways for 1.x months, it plays out as a bullish pennant, a sign of accumulation.
And there isn't a clear indication of a bearish divergence either.
Heck, it's not even oversold (RSI) territories yet.
So I'm inclined to see a few more rallies before market sentiment truly shifts to doom and gloom.
Again, cautious optimism, because there are still curveballs on the horizon -- a meaty concoction of geopolitical tensions with US politics and financial policies to fully iron out.
We could just be approaching the calm before the storm.
Penafian
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