Bitcoin: 100K? 85K More Probable.

16 Nov

Bitcoin has gone nuts thanks to the historical election catalyst. Unusual situations such as these often provide lots of opportunity but that opportunity comes in forms that may not be so obvious to many. In situations where a market makes new all time highs, I do not get caught up with what the crowd is saying, and instead measure the affects of such a move in terms of RISK.

There are going to be LOTS of wild forecasts. The typical "expert" tends to overreact along with telling people what they want to hear in order to attract eye balls. The rational question is: what is the RISK for investors, swing traders, day traders, etc?

In terms of the broader perspective, Bitcoin has broken out of the consolidation that was in play since March. The move appears to be a broader Wave 5, which means a test of 100K or higher is within reason as a result of this breakout. People who called this move years ago look like geniuses only by coincidence (if the election went the other way, Bitcoin may have also). While there is NOTHING bearish to consider at the moment, this situation is best for those who bought much earlier. When markets look their best, that is usually the WORST time to buy not because of some bearish reason, but because of the inherent RISK.

Investors and swing traders are assuming the MOST risk at these levels. The nearest supportive area (by proportion) is somewhere between 83K and 78K (see rectangle, arrow). A 6K to 10K+ retrace is very possible and can come out of no where for any reason (have you seen the -500+ Nasdaq?). Fundamentals do not matter in these high momentum situations. If you are not willing to take that kind of risk, then taking on new positions at these levels with the intention of staying in for the 100K break out is NOT in your best interest. The probability of a retrace increases as the market pushes higher. The rational thing to do is be patient, WAIT for the retrace. Markets do NOT move in straight lines.

The better opportunity in my opinion is on the smaller time frames (day trade). 1000 points per hour in some cases, this is where you can take relatively smaller risk (if you know how to control it) while capturing some wild moves. There is a number of supports for this time frame but the more obvious one is around the 87K area. With this type of price action you can play both long and short and avoid the broader risk by not taking any overnights. A tool like my Trade Scanner Pro works well in a high momentum environment like this one, especially when it comes time to defining risk and profit objectives.

The illustration on the chart shows the scenario that I anticipate on the daily time frame for the coming week. It MAY or MAY NOT unfold this way. It may touch the 95K resistance first. There is no way to know in advance, the key is to have some idea of what scenario is within reason and then act when the market CONFIRMS.

While there is a clear bias in price structure, we must always respect that MARKETS are HIGHLY random and things can change fast. A strong market can easily retrace and yet it is still strong. Know your higher probability levels in advance and wait for the market to prove itself. Otherwise, if your the type who depends on hope in tough situations, your profits during this wild time will be brief.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.