Going into the Bitcoin Cash fork & SegWit activation, this looks to be a likely scenario we will face. Please ensure you store your Bitcoin in a Bitcoin Cash supported wallet if you have any intention of receiving the forked coins.
Method Analysis: 1. Accumulation: A sideways range in which institutional smart players buy carefully and skillfully, without moving the price. The small players are unaware of what is going on; the market is out of the public focus while under accumulation. From a technical perspective, prices move sideways in a trading range bounded by rough areas of support and resistance
2. Markup: The classic uptrend. At this point, the small scale traders become aware of the price movement, and their buying fuels price action higher. Smart money players who bought in the accumulation phase may sell some of their holdings into the strength of the uptrend, or they may just hold and wait for higher prices. As the trend grinds higher, the early, aggressive shorts will be forced to cover, and their buying pressure will, in turn, push the market higher.
3. Distribution: Eventually, the uptrend ends and the market enter into a distribution phase in which the smart money players sell the remainder of their holdings to the small retail traders who are still generally anticipating higher prices. Really smart money players might even sell more than they own and go short in this range. From a technical perspective, there are, two ways this can happen. The manic blow-off end-of-trend pattern will be the result. More common is that the uptrend runs out of steam, and the market goes into another sideways trading range
4. Markdown: The downtrend that follows distribution. Smart money players who are short will buy back some of their shorts into this weakness. Eventually, the retail trader realizes that higher prices are not in their future, so they panic and sell their positions. This panic, more often than not, marks the end of the downtrend. Real downtrends begin out of this environment of optimism or complacency. Longs begin to unwind their positions, adding to the selling pressure.
This is just what I was thinking! Fucking breath of fresh air when most people in this crypto space cant even tell the difference between an Accumulation phase and a distribution! God. Anyway Great job!
AdamKen
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Good work. Agree 100%. Well done. I think the chart can/should be applied to the whole marketcap, as i think some individual charts are slightly off such as i.e. Litecoin. Money seems to be distributed from pump to pump and scewes individual charts. But the overall marketcap is a good indicator of the total money in the market. Have a look the Bubble chart works nicely applied to it... i got out of most of it a while ago near the top and predicted the latest consolidation to be around 60billion, i think it will consolidate eventually around the 30-40billion mark... Patience is your friend...Let me know what you think. Thank you!
thymasterful
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Lol this was the biggest REKT chart i've ever seen. But i love Wyckoff, please do more!
hoschnok
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Activation on litecoin resulted in 300% increase in a few weeks. Now the same update is applied to Bitcoin and years of scaling debate will be solved and you expect 50% decrease? Fear just cause by BCC split?
STIADAYSOFPAST
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@hoschnok We also have a bullish scenario but aren't at that point yet; I will react to the market and trade accordingly. Expect price to drop on Bitcoin when the money that came from alts to get free Bitcoin cash, goes back to alts.
hoschnok
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@STIA, I can agree on that. Actually, I am hoping for it, since I bought many alts during these bloody weeks.
mychartslie
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@hoschnok, "buy the rumor, sell the news" isn't just a cute saying. The insiders have known that SW was going to get activated for at least a month now. You're the type of minnow that whales love to eat for breakfast. They've probably already sold their Bitcoin to you at 2800, haven't they
hoschnok
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@mychartslie, Litecoin were on it's peak the day of segwit activation. This would be the best day to sell. So if you sold it 1 month before, like you mentioned, you would have missed potential 200% of earnings. I am just checking the facts.
mychartslie
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@hoschnok, lol you still don't understand. Rumor= segwit will lock in, News= Segwit locks in
mychartslie
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@hoschnok, so for example, let's say that Amazon announces they're planning to add Bitcoin as a payment option. This is the rumor. Price shoots up. Then a month later, Amazon actually adds Bitcoin for real. Then suckers lose money because the early birds sell.