2018-6-13 BTC LONG (mid term) Have BTC found the BOTTOM?
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Hello guys, today I wanna show in this analysis why I'm not as bearish as lot of the big TradingView's OPs!
Let's start comparing 3 situations that I think they look a lot with each other. As you can see on the chart,
after the big 20k bull run followed by the retracement full of panic sell, BTC headed up again and failed
reaching a new all time high (which put it in a bear market). This bear market had already 3 big bearish
trends (1, 2 and the current). In both first bearish trends, BTC have found support (candles bodies) at that
black lower line. At the current bear trend, today to be more exactly, we just touched this support zone
(candle wick). As you can also see, 3 out of the last 4 days BTC had daily volumes bigger that current volume average.
Now let's take a look at the RSI in this 3 situations too, at 1 and 2, RSI have went down showing a clear bearish trend
confirming price action and reversed when it touched the oversold zone (below 30). In the current bearish
trend (3), we also had RSI decreasing with a resistance above it confirming the bearish trend and we just
entered in the oversold zone. As you should know, in a bear market, an asset may stay oversold for a long time,
but when it emerge above 30, it usually signal a trend reversal.
Considering this 3 scenarios, what do you think BTC is going to do from now? Do you think it is going to
follow the green arrow or the red one? I already opened my position, closer to the support, with lower risk.
Another possiblility is openning a position when RSI break up the bearish trend (which lead to a higher
probability of being right but lower reward).
DYOR
Let's start comparing 3 situations that I think they look a lot with each other. As you can see on the chart,
after the big 20k bull run followed by the retracement full of panic sell, BTC headed up again and failed
reaching a new all time high (which put it in a bear market). This bear market had already 3 big bearish
trends (1, 2 and the current). In both first bearish trends, BTC have found support (candles bodies) at that
black lower line. At the current bear trend, today to be more exactly, we just touched this support zone
(candle wick). As you can also see, 3 out of the last 4 days BTC had daily volumes bigger that current volume average.
Now let's take a look at the RSI in this 3 situations too, at 1 and 2, RSI have went down showing a clear bearish trend
confirming price action and reversed when it touched the oversold zone (below 30). In the current bearish
trend (3), we also had RSI decreasing with a resistance above it confirming the bearish trend and we just
entered in the oversold zone. As you should know, in a bear market, an asset may stay oversold for a long time,
but when it emerge above 30, it usually signal a trend reversal.
Considering this 3 scenarios, what do you think BTC is going to do from now? Do you think it is going to
follow the green arrow or the red one? I already opened my position, closer to the support, with lower risk.
Another possiblility is openning a position when RSI break up the bearish trend (which lead to a higher
probability of being right but lower reward).
DYOR
Nota
BTC price action is looking really like a bull flag, but bears are stopping every bull's attempt to break upward the pattern. It's been an impressive fight. I think the momentum is better for bulls after today's great news...Nota
It have taken too long for breaking upward, I'm losing hope in this bull flag, but the dashed bull channel will act as support.Nota
As I suspected in the last update, the bull flag failed.Current price action have formed another bullish pattern:
descending broadening wedge.
Usually a partial decline in the last movement down leads to a break upward.
Let's keep observing.
Nota
Evolution since my last update, looks bullish for meNota
Partial decline + Bullish divergence = Descending broadening wedge broken upward.
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