BTC HTF View

14 Nov 2024

14-11-2024



Now that we have the HTF breakout, we can note the new HL. Two HL's to be exact...

I don't know how this works with market cap and all, but pure from a structural perspective I think this breakout looks to be the best one yet:

- March 2020 low led to a stronger structure being
formed, more zig zag instead of the usual
straight up (I view structure like a rectangle
from highest high to lowest low);

- Price retested this 2017-2020 structure which I
think is already better than not doing so, and
the structure it retested was also a stronger
one;

- This 2024 consolidation structure could be seen
as another HTF structure, which is weird because
it's so thin. Apparently there was more resistance
here, and I don't know why: it didn't make sense
as the November 2021 ATH was an SFP, which
shouldn't provide any resistance at all.


Basically, you get two breakouts in one, and one of those is already stronger than usual because it retested a previous structure which was a stronger structure than usual.

Price breaking through resistance will lead to bigger expansions than when there isn't resistance at all. Now there was resistance, previous times there was hardly any.

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The higher the TF the more speculative it gets, and I feel a bit of a fool writing this because it fits perfectly with the usual crypto X-community sucker bullishness, though it does now really look this good.

This 2024 structure right at the previous ATH is a bit funny though, it definitely stands out. One scenario I keep in mind is that this structure could lead to a future HTF MSB setup, meaning that we get this strong short expansion which will top out fast with an SFP, whereafter price breaks through the whole structure (so below the 49k low). Luckily I know my LTF setups...