BTC TO THE MOON! (but not just yet)
After this atrocious bear market that we've had at the start of the year, it's clear that things are beginning to turn around for BTC as it's shown serious reversal signs of late, breaking out well above the 200 day MA and chewing through resistance levels such as 10K (more psychological) and 11K (more technically clear). BitConneeeeeeect is gone, the FUD and panic over Tether has seemed to quiet (hopefully those guys either have or get the USD reserves), and mainstream media is really starting to catch on (CNBC has posted multiple highly bullish articles, Ellen recently introduces BTC to millions of new viewers who likely were unaware of it).
However, despite being bullish on BTC and the overall crypto market in the near future, when looking at the chart and indicators, I'm not expecting a full breakout yet. First off, the most obvious indicator is a simple drawing of a trend line connecting the December and January highs to the high we saw yesterday just below 12k, they line up perfectly. Secondly, when looking at the one day chart you can see that the stochastic RSI is showing BTC is more overbought than it has been since early December (it hit max values just a few days ago!). The Bollinger Bands on BTC also showed tightening (signaling a move) just a couple days ago when BTC was trying to break above 11K, and after we failed to break through 12k we're back right at the same level. The MACD has been curling up during this run and the 9 day MA has broken above the center line, but the actual MACD line (difference between 12 and 26 day moving averages) still has a ways to go (breaking above would signal a bullish trend).
Given this, I'm expecting BTC to drop as we see some consolidation before a true bull run (I'm all cash BTW). In my ideal bull scenario, we'll see a drop down to where buyers will come off the sidelines in a zone of 7500-8000 as people recognize the coming bull run and buy at weak support levels since they don't believe that it will double bottom. If this zone doesn't hold, then I see BTC coming down more where buyers will then start to come in at the double bottom at 6000 and it not to break down through the line of support at 5500 (good chance even that buyers see the double bottom at 6000 and it gets bought just before)
All in all, I don't really care about BTC but more how it affects the more fun, volatile alts that will run when it does. I think that both markets will be doing well soon and that we've got a huge year driven by mass adoption ahead of us, we're just not there quite yet.
However, despite being bullish on BTC and the overall crypto market in the near future, when looking at the chart and indicators, I'm not expecting a full breakout yet. First off, the most obvious indicator is a simple drawing of a trend line connecting the December and January highs to the high we saw yesterday just below 12k, they line up perfectly. Secondly, when looking at the one day chart you can see that the stochastic RSI is showing BTC is more overbought than it has been since early December (it hit max values just a few days ago!). The Bollinger Bands on BTC also showed tightening (signaling a move) just a couple days ago when BTC was trying to break above 11K, and after we failed to break through 12k we're back right at the same level. The MACD has been curling up during this run and the 9 day MA has broken above the center line, but the actual MACD line (difference between 12 and 26 day moving averages) still has a ways to go (breaking above would signal a bullish trend).
Given this, I'm expecting BTC to drop as we see some consolidation before a true bull run (I'm all cash BTW). In my ideal bull scenario, we'll see a drop down to where buyers will come off the sidelines in a zone of 7500-8000 as people recognize the coming bull run and buy at weak support levels since they don't believe that it will double bottom. If this zone doesn't hold, then I see BTC coming down more where buyers will then start to come in at the double bottom at 6000 and it not to break down through the line of support at 5500 (good chance even that buyers see the double bottom at 6000 and it gets bought just before)
All in all, I don't really care about BTC but more how it affects the more fun, volatile alts that will run when it does. I think that both markets will be doing well soon and that we've got a huge year driven by mass adoption ahead of us, we're just not there quite yet.
Penafian
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