BTCUSD Weekly Bearish Risk Looms Amid Low Volume

kelmarin

Key Observations

1. Resistance and Pivot Zone:
- The price recently tested the $99,800 level, marking a new All-Time High (ATH) in November 2024.
- The pivot zone near $92,800–$93,000 appears critical. A daily close below $92,800 could trigger a strong bearish move.

2. Bearish Scenario:
- If the price closes below $92,800, a significant drop toward $79,000 and potentially $71,000 is anticipated.
- The bearish sentiment is supported by low trading volume, indicating weak buyer participation at current levels. Historical volume trends show stronger bearish reactions in similar conditions.

3. Bullish Scenario:
- To maintain bullish momentum, the price must stabilize above $98,800, confirmed by a daily close above this level.
- If the bullish trend resumes, potential targets could range between $104,000–$110,000 (above the primary ascending channel).

4. Volume Analysis:
- A consistent decline in volume compared to 2021 and 2018 suggests exhaustion in the upward trend.
- Low volume after a significant rally often signals a possible trend reversal or consolidation.

5. Channel Dynamics:
- The primary ascending channel remains intact. The current price action is near the upper resistance line of this channel, increasing the likelihood of rejection.
- Historically, price rejection at the upper channel line has resulted in sharp pullbacks (e.g., 2021 ATH).

6. Demand Zone:
- A demand zone is highlighted between $49,000–$64,000, which could act as a major support area in case of a strong bearish move.

7. General Direction:
- The broader trend remains bullish in the long term, but the short to medium-term signals indicate a potential correction or consolidation.

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Summary and Next Steps:

- Bearish Targets:
- $79,000: First key support level.
- $71,000: Strong support and possible rebound zone if $79,000 breaks.

- Bullish Confirmation:
- Stability above $98,800 is required to regain bullish momentum, targeting $104,000–$110,000.

- Key Trigger Points:
- Watch for a daily candle close below $92,800 for bearish confirmation.
- Monitor volume dynamics; increasing sell volume would further validate the bearish outlook.