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BTC: 200D SMA vs 600D SMA

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BTC has been bouncing between the 200D SMA (blue/orange) and the 600D SMA (green/red) for the last 4 months. The last two weeks, however, BTC has touched both, with the 200D SMA acting as resistance, and the 600D acting as support.

BTC has not fully closed below the 600D since March 2020. In addition, the 4H, 6H, 8H and 12H RSI have not been this low since January 22nd of this year.

The big question everyone is asking now... Will BTC bounce up to 50K+ or will it fall below 30K?

Feel free to share your thoughts with technical evidence.
Nota
8H RSI: January 22 vs April 11
syot kilat

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