2018.04.19 BTC 2hr - The case for a bullish $7.7k retrace
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With BTC hitting 8.4k (missing by a dollar on GDAX), I'm seeing at least one story for a completed impulse wave structure that we can now analyze.
We could be done with the wave up (1-5) and are putting in an A-B-C correction. Wave B has retraced to almost exactly .786 of A, so this could possibly be the start of wave C.
Wave C likely target is around 7.7k, seen with confluence of:
- .382 retrace of the entire structure (this would be pretty bullish in the medium term)
- 1:1 extension of wave A
- bottom of the parallel channel indicated by the pitchfork
If these all come true, (go down now, 8.2k to 7.7k -> bounce), we will be in for another strong wave up soon.
We could be done with the wave up (1-5) and are putting in an A-B-C correction. Wave B has retraced to almost exactly .786 of A, so this could possibly be the start of wave C.
Wave C likely target is around 7.7k, seen with confluence of:
- .382 retrace of the entire structure (this would be pretty bullish in the medium term)
- 1:1 extension of wave A
- bottom of the parallel channel indicated by the pitchfork
If these all come true, (go down now, 8.2k to 7.7k -> bounce), we will be in for another strong wave up soon.
Nota
some very optimistic buying led BTC to go up a bit more, so targets are tweaked:- a quick retrace may likely bring us to 8.2k,
- a more extended retrace may bring us to about 8k flat
Nota
finally get some confirmation of a correction starting. Looking for a bounce/reaction at around $8,450Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
The 5th and final wave ended up being extended, leading to so many confusing counts. It ended up going higher before correcting. So it ended up going as high as 9.7k, and down to 8.6k, hitting exactly the bottom of a channel, as well as close to 38.2 retrace region (pic attached).My sense is that the correction is now over, and we begin the 3rd wave of the cycle.
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