Some reflections regarding BTC.

12 Nov 2018

BTC volume has completely drained throughout the year, with prices consistently staying above 6000USD, but the highs being pushed down. A classic falling triangle, which obviously is no good sign. Volume being drained from ATH, indicates a lot of "HODLers" are still left in the market, not adjusting their positions. This is most likely about to change, with a move that is very likely to happen before we start the new year. This move could take BTC to 5000USD levels, before we see any bounce of significance. This is where things get interesting, and where the decision is made by the market: do we want this thing anymore or not? I am leaning towards the latter. Buyers have completely vanished, and the price can only be held up so much by the HODLers before they capitulate and take whatever profit or loss that they can. The trendlines in the chart make me belive that we could see 2000USD levels during the next year, but at what pace the price will move once we convincingly start breaking support levels is impossible to predict, so the arrows drawn in the chart are only a subjective opinion. Having a bearish bias towards BTC, I obviously only tell the bearish side of the story, but the possibilities are still there for moves to the upside. Bouncing on- or breaking up from trendlines in the chart will signal strenght, just like the opposite signals weakness. Fundamentally, I think a lot of expectation is still priced in at current levels, which is the cause of my bearish bias, which means confirmation of market expectations, or exceeding those, would also signal strenght. I just don't see a positive shift happening, with the fundamental disagreements in the cryptocurrency landscape, in addition to blockchain already finding use cases that shouldn't be reflected in currency prices.