Bitcoin: Surpise Selloff

19 Apr 2021

Nothing is impossible when it comes to price action. There is
always a chance that price can have a move up or a move down.
If someone tells you that a certain trade is going to win 90%-100%
of the time, they are lying to you and it is best for you to run away
from them.

So last night we had a quick and strong selloff for about 20 mins and
today's bar was fairly bearish and it was a sell climax and high churn bar.
What does this mean? It means we had a whole lot of selling going on
which included big institutions being involved in that. Over
9 billion dollars worth of long positions were closed last night according to
an article I read. Ya, A TON of stop loss orders were hit last night and
now the question is when will those buyers come back in?

We will know in the next couple of days. If we get continued follow through
selling in the next 2-3 days, this means that large buyers will not be coming back in
until price goes lower to a support level they feel comfortable with. This could be as
low as 40,200 or even 31,200. I would say there is a 40-50% chance of this happening.
Price has just had a failed breakout of the 60,000 resistance level and is slicing
through the 21 day EMA.

Now, if price breaks above the high of today's sell climax/churn bar then it is
extremely probable that Bitcoin will continue to move up and put in a new high.

We'll see what tomorrow's bar brings!

Note: I am currently not long BItcoin. Closed up my position with a 22% gain.