Bitcoin poised for Downward Move: Hull MACD Edition
I don’t see many people using the Hull MACD, (I usually just call it the H-MAC to distinguish it)) which is a MACD comprised of Hull moving averages rather than exponential moving averages. This post is pretty educational but it sill has an analytical component so I tagged it as analysis.
If you have seen some of my HMAC posts before you will recall how I mention it acts differently than the MACD, and right now I think is a great example. Even better if I am correct, BTC dumps, and my shorts are in the money (I am not your financial advisor, and I still havn’t figured out the HMAC completely).
The formation we see in the left chart, marked by the blue arrow, is an extra-ordinarly bearish formation on the HMAC The HMAC behaves really funny when it is squished between converging support and resistance when the price popped up we got this formation that for some reason reminds be of a beak, and this humming bird beak is the worse iteration of the beak.
The middle chart, marked yellow, has the HMAC very likely to to complete an ossiclation with the peak completely below the zero line. Those movements, especially on a timeframe like the daily chart, are usually very deep when they get done moving.
The right-most chart is the 3 day chart, and the HMAC is predicting a decisive move to the downside, just like one would expect from the MACD. Within the next 3 days the downtrend should get grizzly.
Of course, no indicator is perfect and you should always use ones stops and limits to get in and out of positions.
Below is another version of the bird beak (histogram removed) on ETHBTC and this time I made it a bit clearer why it looks like a sea-gull to me. With this seagull formation you typically see it exactly as shown, with a bearishly divergent bounce. The hummingbird beak above, as I said, typically more bearish but this one is still pretty bad. You can also see that the HMAC is a lot more volatile and centered around zero compared to the MACD. That movement around zero can give you a lot of false signals due to how volatile the HMAC is, especially on lower timeframes.
If you have seen some of my HMAC posts before you will recall how I mention it acts differently than the MACD, and right now I think is a great example. Even better if I am correct, BTC dumps, and my shorts are in the money (I am not your financial advisor, and I still havn’t figured out the HMAC completely).
The formation we see in the left chart, marked by the blue arrow, is an extra-ordinarly bearish formation on the HMAC The HMAC behaves really funny when it is squished between converging support and resistance when the price popped up we got this formation that for some reason reminds be of a beak, and this humming bird beak is the worse iteration of the beak.
The middle chart, marked yellow, has the HMAC very likely to to complete an ossiclation with the peak completely below the zero line. Those movements, especially on a timeframe like the daily chart, are usually very deep when they get done moving.
The right-most chart is the 3 day chart, and the HMAC is predicting a decisive move to the downside, just like one would expect from the MACD. Within the next 3 days the downtrend should get grizzly.
Of course, no indicator is perfect and you should always use ones stops and limits to get in and out of positions.
Below is another version of the bird beak (histogram removed) on ETHBTC and this time I made it a bit clearer why it looks like a sea-gull to me. With this seagull formation you typically see it exactly as shown, with a bearishly divergent bounce. The hummingbird beak above, as I said, typically more bearish but this one is still pretty bad. You can also see that the HMAC is a lot more volatile and centered around zero compared to the MACD. That movement around zero can give you a lot of false signals due to how volatile the HMAC is, especially on lower timeframes.
Penafian
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