Panjang

BTC: Three Peaks and a Domed House

Telah dikemas kini

Just an idea for later reference. Nothing conclusive yet.

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Earlier than expected. If we don't reclaim the support area soon, I think we can drop a slight bit more - potentially below $56.5. Bounce wasn't decisive enough IMHO.

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Despite the red this looks very primed for a reversal from here. I'll go all-in on alts for this last phase I'm expecting (not an advice, not mentioning any coins by name).

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Alternative Game Plan: If the resistance area can't be reclaimed. Either way, I'm expecting alts to soar one last time.

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Updated Game Plan. Still, I don't think we are done yet. Expecting to peak in the week starting Dec. 20th (21st?). We did come down to this level in May before coming up once more to 58k before we continued down. In this case I could also see a retest of the May 2021 high (a new ATH would seriously surprise me at this point - if the pattern holds potentially August 2022?). The other reason why I still stand with not done yet, is that we didn't see the Sh**-Coin indicator go up double digit %s (Exit-Trap) which would signal a decent drop back to the 32k-30k levels.

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Short-Term:
Today (Friday, December 17th 2021) is quad witching day. Meaning "Equity Futures Contracts", "Options on Individual Equities", "Options Contracts on Equity Futures" and "Options on Equity Indexes" will expire and typically leads to volatility in the next days. I expect today's market action to be rather flat, trending down, before we re-test the small wedge on the weekend with a potential target.

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Short-Term Update Dec. 21st:

Small Wedge is being tested - I think there is enough steam left to test the 50k area at least. My sell target still remains at for now, if we can manage to break above the trend channel from the ATH - but I don't think we will manage to hold a re-test of 50k for long.

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Seems we are starting to flatten out. I'm cautiously pessimistic at this point and opened a small short at 49.3k

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Short-Term Update Dec. 22nd:
Still to early to tell where this will go. We closed the 12h + 6h slightly below the trendline - but I would give it another 12h for the daily close for confirmation. If we manage to close above the trendline I would wait for the next 24h candle to also close above before making a long entry.

As for the rest of the year expectations:
I don't expect a christmas rally for the markets in general anymore. If at all, there will be profit taking in the next days until EoY and end of Q4. Too much uncertainty about Omicron, and BTC is too far away from an ATH for a "blow off top" rally. I'm still eyeing $42-41.5k for a long entry if we can't close above in the next 2 days and expect sideways movement until early 2022.

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Food for thought:
I recently read a tweet about how similar the current TR looks to the TR we had between May-July and the conclusion was we are in a re-accumulation range. My thoughts on this:
1. Typically re-accumalation happens in a TR below the 1D200MA and the move into this range is accompanied by huge volume - at present, we are still above and have found support at the 1D200MA while moving down and we haven't seen similar levels of high volume so far.
2. Although, the TR when compressed looks somewhat similar so far the re-accumulation took ~3 month - the current range is still very young (21 days).

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Alternative Game-Plan: If we drop below and don't see a strong pullback - could be that we are in a double-top with range Wyckoff Distribution (there are more patterns than what you see on your first search result). Only way to know is if we are to break support at 40k with volume. In any way, if we he hit this area I would be cautious with longs and open positions (any cryptos), if we don't bounce back up to the 46.5k with authority on BTC, if not we'll see an Exit-Pump on alts.
For the shorts you might have open like me, I'll use multiple trailing stop losses once we break support and trendlines.

Note: This is just an alternative game plan. There are multiple scenarios in which this can play out - I believe it's important to consider as much possibilities as possible and not go all-in on one potential scenario.

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Short-Term to Mid-Term Update Dec. 31st, 2021:
Just weighing pros and cons.

Monthly for Q4 is closing today with a big fat sell signal, unless we make it above the mid of the TR above 48.9k or even better 50k - if we can, I still expect to move down to the lower 40k- and trade side-ways for a couple of days on the short-term before we try to move back up again - and I think there is still room for another big rally until the last week of Feb. 2021 (I expect the FED to raise interest rates (hard) as early as March).
We are still above the quarterly open from October (43.8k) and way above the yearly open of 2001 ().
That being said, the Nasdaq and DJ index charts look also look exhausted since Oct. 2021 - yes there have been new records, but if you look closely you'll see distribution patterns all over the place.
This could be seasonality - with Q4 closing and proft taking, but I could also mean that a decade(!) of stock value pumps and overvaluation due to low interest rates is coming to an end. (longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/)
When comparing US10Y vs. US02Y treasuary yield we see currently a downtrend that has started in Oct. 2021 - this means that the long term outlook isn't looking to bright right now.

On BTC I still see a negative Money Flow Index - meaning higher sell activity - distribution, particularly in the 4h TF (Red wave in chart below) - this has been slowly creeping up into the higher time frames as well.

Overall, the structure looks bearish, if we go down significantly and can't hold 40k, we'll probably see a major sign of weakness with a close below 30k before we continue with re-distrubition in the 32k-20k range.
On the weekly, and with the current trend, there are still weeks if not months to go before we see a buy signal again.

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High potential for a reversal here - or for a breakdown of range to the lower 40k region. Recommendation: Stick out of trades for the next couple of hours and watch for a squeeze to the downside or to the top. I'm setting tighter SL on my shorts here.
Usually the 1hr TF works best for me to detect this.
What we want to see for reversal to upside: Money Flow Index (MFI) turning back into the green. Bullish engulfing candles (Green, lower open and higher close than the previous candles, followed by small spread green candle(s).
Nevermind if it looks overbought if this happens (SRSI). It is also ok, if the price dips below the TR (potential Spring) with low volume (shakeout) and then squeezes to the upside.
Example (Yellow box):

What we want to see for a breakdown of TR: Close below 45.5k ideally - MFI not turning back.
Squeeze of the support line from the top, that is bearish engulfing candles (Red, higher open & lower close than previous candles), small spread red candles pushing down from top to the support and most importantly higher volume on red candles, so opposite of a reversal to the top.

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Update 01/06/2021:

Down it is - don't think we'll come back to test 45.5k in the next 40 minutes before day close as of writing. There is still room to dip a little bit more for now to around 40k. Notice the volume was not extraordinary high so far. We have lost the Point of control at 47k for now - I'll set my SLs slightly above this point. I also don't think we are ready to set a new major sign of weakness below 30k just yet. Watching alts now, expecting a heavy exit pump soon.

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Update 01/07/2022:

Monitoring US100 for a potential bounce - expecting BTC to do the same.

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Update 01/09/2021:

Updated long term schematic with (potential - not confirmed yet) labels. Unfortunately, we didn't make it past the previous monthly low yet, so I don't feel comfortable to speculate on a relief bounce, although this would be a good place for one - but potentially short lived (CPI Data for December on Jan 12th, 2022).

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Update 01/10/2022:

Weekly closed below the trading range 52.1k-42.3k - 1D50MA is probably going to cross 1D200MA in the next couple of days (Death Cross). Eyes on Jan. 12th, 2022.

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Nasdaq 100 - 30 mins. before the opening bell:

Rule: Don't short support. Wait for confirmation (down to 1D200MA up to trendline, then down )

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Same goes for BTC. Don't short support.

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Update 01/11/2022:

Careful at U.S. market open today, especially if we open in the green - what happened yesterday was an open invitation for scalping - nothing has changed on the macro view. As for BTC, probably more sideways today - tomorrow is going to be important (CPI), watch for moves before the data comes out (and run in the opposite direction if you want to take a bet before confirmation).

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2nd Update 01/11/2022 - Personal Opinion:

I think we tested our small upper TR with an UTAD (Up-Thrust after Distribution) and now are on our way down through the TR, no way to know for sure before we see it (drop into the mid 30s at least and wait for a failed test of 40k) - I still added a smaller short to my portfolio at 43k out of conviction. I expect tomorrow to be a red day. As mentioned before, CPI data is to be released at 8.30 a.m. ET and you can already bet that it's going be worse than expected if the White House already issued a front run saying "ELEVATED INFLATION DATA EXPECTED [...] BUT MONTH/MONTH FIGURES TO MODERATE OVER COMING MONTHS" - we heard this already last year.
Sure, a lost has been prized already in - mostly uncertainty. FED says potentially 3 hikes this year, other are saying maximum 1 before we spook the market and will have politics pressure the FED to drop back to 0 faster than you can say bailout and throw on the printer and bail the rich out - especially at or shortly before elections in November. On the other hand you have JPM saying 20(!) hikes are possible this year - don't ask me how they got that number.
In the meantime, Brent prizes soared 25% since Omicron fears began, some FED officials resigned early for after revelations of insider trading in 2020 - but after Powell got renominated and of course there is more than one member of congress who beat the in 2021... Oh and one more thing: Powell during his testimony today said that inflation will last until mid this year (at first he said well into next year, but then corrected - *wink* ;-) )

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My current holdings (Not an advice, just for transparency):
SHORT Nasdaq 100 (since last week of December)
SHORT BTC (Multiple - some mentioned in thread above)
LONG Commodities (Gold + Oil in particular, but some other stuff too)
LONG PBR

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S&P 500 - Potential Hindenburg Omen (On Weekly):

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CPI data came in as expected - so already priced it. Closing shorts and longing for now.

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43.850ish needs to hold.

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Closed 43.900ish -- too close to call. Waiting for confirmation on next daily.

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Well, the alt-pump and scam-wick to 44.4k was alerting - maybe I was to early to call UTAD earlier.

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If we close below $42749 the daily will print a bearish engulfing candle + potential Death Cross on 1D50MA and 1D200MA.

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Short-Term Update 01/17/2021:

Expecting volatility to pick up now after U.S. market closed for three days - expecting a dip to 40k and a bounce back to the area (mid of our current TR - red line) before we leave our current TR - probably in the next 2 days. Also expecting some wild action on US100 and US500 by the way things are looking right now.

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Great read; gmo.com/europe/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/

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Short-Term to Near-Term Update 01/21/2022:
The 3-Day candle is going to close today - well, I think by the looks of it, there isn't much that isn't obvious:

What will become interesting next week however is, where we will find support and how we will react on it.
Currently $36-34.5 is our on next area of highest (previous) buy volume - which is also where the 3D200MA currently is at $35.184 (next candle it will be a little higher)

During the 2018 bull-run we did find support on the 3D200MA and bounced between 3D50MA (currently at $51.816) and 3D200MA back and forth on decreasing volume and spread until they crossed and we legged down.

Could this happen this time as well? Sure, by the looks of the indicator level we could find a potential (temporary) bottom at or around the 3D200MA in the next days.
That being said, we didn't have much correlation or stake between what was going on with the US100 back in the days. ("This time it's different")
If we look at the US100 (Nasdaq) for correlation next area of support is going to be 14.000 (we are currently at 14.493 as of writing).
If this is lost, there is potential for a free fall to 10.000 - which could potentially drag down BTC further too (at least for a dip).
If this holds (or can be reclaimed) we might see a relief rally there as well (and after so many red candles, I wouldn't be surprised to see one).

In any way, there is as always of course, multiple scenarios how this can play out. My recommendation is to not jump on the first green 3D candle you see without being cautious of the current environment.
I still expect BTC to at least touch sub-30k at some point. We'll see.

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Addendum: CME Futures for January will expire next week Friday (Jan 28th, 2022)

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Large cap stocks showing signs of weakness.
Usually the risky assets go first, if the large caps start to show signs of weakness, this usually means there is 20%+ downside still in the play.

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Short-Term Update 01/21/2022:
The "Good" News we stopped our decline today. The "Bad" News we couldn't close above 37k. If we still rally, would be my sell target for now, but I still do see a very good chance to end up at ~26k, but the stop action suggests that we might be ranging between 37k-32k first.

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Short-Term Update 01/28/2022:
I like how the short-term reacted after the market close yesterday with strong up candles to 37.500 and higher highs, but it seems like it is not able to keep the momentum at this point. If we were to rally above 39k for SOS (Sign of Strength) and make a daily close there I would consider going long with the anticipation of a higher high above or close to 43k. BTC is way oversold on the higher timeframes.
That being said, we have the CME Futures expiring today (with a potential rollover from last month). U.S. Indexes also likely to open lower - and potentially close way lower. I'm cautious at this point with longs and are looking for a more riskless entry than currently given.

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The odds for a higher high look better and better. CME and US market about to close in 30 mins. Let's see.

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Short-Term Update 01/31/2022:
Failed to deliver a high high.

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Ozmium

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