Previous analysis worked out quite nicely, where it followed almost everything to the point. Have to say, it has not been that easy for a while now. Now when looking at these charts, there is no denying that they are very similar. Making like a double top shape with the red zone being the neckline. Also very identical stages as well with the colored circles.
I am going to keep this one short. As long as we stay below the 7900ish, it's an easy view down. There is also room up to 8000ish, but then it should stay withing the shape of the possible bearish wedge on the right. For a wedge , volume is very important. So there is no room to see a solid push up through the 8000 with high volume . If that happens, it probably means something else is going on.
I am not going to do any mid/long term predictions here, just taking it step by step. In the previous analysis i talked about a bigger ABC correction down from the whole rally. It could be finished already, but since the double top gives a target around 7.000, i think chances for a drop are still bigger at this point. I don't have a real scenario yet if we see the 7900/8000 break.
Alts are also hardly bouncing up with this consolidation of Bitcoin the past 24 hours, this is also in favor of the bears so far.
Now if we do see another drop , it's important to look at the volume of that drop . If we see it being similar to the previous one, or preferably even lower, than chances for a low will increase some. If sell volume increases even more, it will be the other way around. So suggesting the market can drop even more as this fractal suggests.
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Previous analysis:
Komen
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New ETH analysis:
Komen
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Support line for ETH and BTC just broke, at the moment it looks like a standard retest. So it is not allowed to see those red zones break anymore. Because that would invalidate the pattern usually
bottom line is the fundamentals haven't changed much. there are a few custody solutions coming online soon, bitcoin is available on TD and will be on other platforms soon. so there may be more waves of FOMO. but that's really all this is. a lot of people capitulated last nov, and if they weren't following BCH politics- who does- it caught them off guard. they said "fuck it" and sold off. now as they check the price, they say "oh shit" and buy back in higher. but the fundamentals are still the same. BTC is a 1mb crippled self-speculation tool. ETH 2.0 isn't out yet. the others haven't gained enough traction or use cases. best thing to do is try to ride the fomo the right way and make some money. fundamentals-based prices won't come for another year or 2.
MichielVan_Kets
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@dma90210, exactly! I do a lot of international payments for my job; I would love to switch to bitcoin, but that's just not possible; we're forced to keep using paypal ... as long that problem hasn't been solved; this is fomo and nothing else, and yes, there might be some more fomo left indeed, so it might actually go up even more, but that would just make it drop even harder afterwards
dma90210
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@MichielVan Kets, as long as BTC is under blockstream's control it will remain crippled. LN has serious fundamental problems. ETH shows a lot more promise, and 2 years from now everyone will think of BTC as the myspace of the crypto world. Some platforms can already scale, but have big tradeoffs.
for payments, you should wait til stablecoins get good enough. DAI shows some promise, but has been having issues under the hood lately. the others are all basicaly paypal, as theri backing bank could shut them all down overnight if they wanted.
MichielVan_Kets
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@dma90210, well, personally I don't mind all the different inconveniences of using crypto's, but ... my clients and my suppliers don't have time for that; they're the ones that are not interested in bitcoin, which is why I can't use it either
Mikki0416
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I think we will go to 5800-6000 zone. and then stabelize and slow growing up.
Sherem
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Down we go!
Nilles
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Well spotted! I think ~6k will be in reach soon.
d14b0ll0s
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The difference was that in July '18 it was a correction in a larger downtrend that just finished and Bitcoin was on its way further down. Now we're correcting from five impulse waves of the new uptrend that startedi n December '18, which means it needs to retrace more, to the end of B, as part of the ABC correction before going lower. In addition to the candles, notice how oversold the market is right now and how few people are in it (in 'long' positions). This needs to create more hope than a couple of green 2H or 3H candles after all the fear instilled in this market during the recent forceful drop of almost 20%.
Can there be a parallel for the present situation in a bullish market, something between Nov. 2015 and Nov. 2017, that you could draw from instead?
jthrasher
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@d14b0ll0s, totally agree. One was a bear market rally and one was a bull trend correction. The trend dynamics are completely different. Doesn't mean we can't see this play out but I do not feel like they are very analogous.