Bitcoin $BTCUSD in a Descending Triangle, breakdown by 1.7.18?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
Bear with me (no pun/pun intended), as I'm a fairly newbie chartist, but I've been pretty good with it and profitable lately, AND I've been trading Bitcoin since 2015 when it was $400 a share. From my standpoint, historically there is a support line at $12500-$12700 for Bitcoin . Since the peak at near $20K just before the second set of futures went live on 12/15, the subsequent >40% crash, and multiple corrections up and down, Bitcoin has been establishing lower highs and lower lows at the support line of $12500-$12700. In addition CCI is already indicating oversold, and the RSI is going to reach that point very soon.

My theory/hypothesis: This is a CLEAR descending triangle on the 4 hour Bitcoin chart. If you follow the trendlines out from the peak downwards, with the bottom trendline as $12500-$12700 support, there seems to be a CRITICAL point that will occur sometime by the end of the first week in January. IF that $12500-$12700 support line is broken at that point (around 1.5.18-1.7.18), there will be a free-fall and MAJOR correction/gap down in Bitcoin at that point...I believe it could go to as low as $8K or more at next supports. Furthermore, I do not expect major spikes or dips in Bitcoin above $15K or below $12.5K until that time.

What do y'all think? Fair analysis?

DISCLAIMER: I USED to be long in Bitcoin in 2015, and bought the dip/sold EOD on 12/22, based on my chart analysis. I am a short-term Bitcoin bear, intermediate-term Bitcoin bull (until end of 2018-mid-2019 when there is more clarity in the crypto market on a perferred "winner), and a long-term Bitcoin bear.

I don't have any position in Bitcoin but MAY enter a short position (or more likely wait for the huge gap down, and then buy the dip I expect to occur) after 1/7, if this goes the way I think it will go.
agreed, adding your chart on the updates of my dec 17 idea :
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