One last time to MA200 before the rally can start

I think it's quite likely that we're going to revisit the MA200 one last time, as a final shakeout, before any kind of rally can start.
The stock market looks as if it want to commence a second dump wave, therefore, it's quite likely that btc will follow to some extent. However, it will not follow as strongly as last time, because
now, we are in post halving territory.
This last dip would also complete an E-wave, therefore completing the bullflag which has been in the making since soon 3 years.
The weekly MA200 now stands at around 6200, and slowly rising.

I would see a last correction as very healthy.
Also, the monthly picture speaks for that scenario too, since the monthly Bollinger Bands are still not narrow enough for a breakout to the upside. They need to contract further, which would
favor this scenario.
I see the chance for that happening around 60%, for an unexpected breakout to the upside with 25%, and for an unexpected complete breakdown of the structure, with prices below the MA200, with 5%.