Bitcoin: Potential 2025 targets
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Here you can see the similarities between the last three halving cycles and compare them to the current fourth one.
The blue zones represent when the price has broken the 0.382 fib after a bear market roughly one year before the halving. The price never broke the 0.786 fib before the halving, so I don’t expect the price to go above $50,000 until at least few months after the halving in 2024.
The green zones represent the time from the halving to the peak. The price reached the 1.618 fib in each of the previous cycles (and got a massive rejection). This cycle the 1.618 fib is at $174,000.
The orange zones represent blow-off tops. In the first two cycles the price kept going all the way to the 2.272 fib. In the last cycle it didn’t happen (but it was still a very bullish phase). This cycle the 2.272 fib is at $462,000.
I have copied the price action of the last three cycles and adjusted them to the current fib levels to get a visualization of what we can expect after the next halving. I don’t know what will happen before the next halving, but I expect the price to range between $20,000 and $50,000.
Main target for 2025 is just under $200,000. And maybe we’ll see $420,690 just for the meme.
The blue zones represent when the price has broken the 0.382 fib after a bear market roughly one year before the halving. The price never broke the 0.786 fib before the halving, so I don’t expect the price to go above $50,000 until at least few months after the halving in 2024.
The green zones represent the time from the halving to the peak. The price reached the 1.618 fib in each of the previous cycles (and got a massive rejection). This cycle the 1.618 fib is at $174,000.
The orange zones represent blow-off tops. In the first two cycles the price kept going all the way to the 2.272 fib. In the last cycle it didn’t happen (but it was still a very bullish phase). This cycle the 2.272 fib is at $462,000.
I have copied the price action of the last three cycles and adjusted them to the current fib levels to get a visualization of what we can expect after the next halving. I don’t know what will happen before the next halving, but I expect the price to range between $20,000 and $50,000.
Main target for 2025 is just under $200,000. And maybe we’ll see $420,690 just for the meme.
Nota
We're still in the blue box. The real fun begins 6-12 months from now.Nota
We're approaching the upper edge of the blue box. Every time that happened in the past three cycles, we got at least a 40% pullback. If that happens now, we're looking at around 30k, which would be a strong support zone, and a great buying opportunity.Nota
Bitcoin ETFs launched today, the price is very close to the upper edge of the blue box (0.786 fib) as I'm writing this, and the last time the fear and greed index was this high was november 11th 2021. Very high probability we get a big pullback in the near future.Nota
We just re-tested the breakout from the blue box after being overextended for several months. We might test the 40k area which would be similar to september 2020.
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