BTC/ USD all bubbly thinking aside

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
This chart contains few simple indicators that I am using while trying to determine if we have any kind of a trend or not. The Average Directional Index , the MACD and the 21 EMA . From the chart we can see that the ADX is slowly going down. This means that we are cooling off from the last bull run that we had. We can also see that the MACD is pointing down and the price is below the 21 EMA . All this tells me that the weekly chart of bitcoin             is Neutral on the verge of bearish . If we break below the support line that I drew BTC             is almost certainly making a new low (below 6k). If we are to make a bull run from this chart some buyers are really going to need to step in and push the price in the 13 14 k range, which i thing we have a low probability if doing. If i had to put a percent chance that we will make a bull run this year i would put it in the 25% chance range. Not to mention the fact that the last weekly candle is bigger then the previous one, which is also bearish .
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