BTC: 8wk crossing BMSB as a measure of a bull market?

27 Jan 2023

I marked each time in BTC's recent history that the 8week sma crossed the bull market support band. When it goes under after a bull run it seems to indicate a bear market (albeit a little late).

- During a bear market there tends to be 6 times that the 8week and bmsb cross.
- After the initial cross, at the end of a long bull run, BTC falls over 70% from the price at the crossing to the bear market bottom.
- The moving averages tend to flip each each other when BTC is moving sideways( ish ) (eg. 2015, 2019-2020, 2021)
- There was a "fake-out" where the 8 week fell below the bmsb in the 2021 market, but it indicated a short bear market. The bull market after it was very short lived as well.

The 8week has just crossed above the 20wk after a large drop. I drew out some paths BTC *could* take based on the times where I drew arrows. For all I could know the price could just go down, but this seems either bullish or at the least not bearish .