Surfing BTC: Awaiting MACD pickup for quick trade

23 Mei 2023

Technicals:
1. Seasonal minor peak
2. RSI is on the oversold side
3. MACD has been negative for more than 2 months

Trade:
1. Looking out for a rebound in MACD and exit

25 Mei 2023

Nota

Technicals:
1. MACD did not go positive
2. BTC price remains curiously very weak cf Nasdaq 100
3. BTC may hopefully fall to around 25K
and rebound from there when RSI goes oversold

Action:
1. Continue to monitor for a breakout

27 Mei 2023

Nota

Technicals:
1. MACD is at +/-1 going into this weekend
2. There is no clear indication which side it will breakout

Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling resolution impending within a week
2. Ukraine expecting counteroffensive within a week
3. Both of above have historically been BTC bullish

Action:
1. Cointinue to monitor for breakout (could be very soon)

28 Mei 2023

Dagangan aktif

BTC: $27199

Technicals:
1. Miniscule signal for MACD to +9

Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling in-principle announcement made

Action:
1. Entered 15 BTC at $27197
2. Trade is now active

30 Mei 2023

Nota

BTC: $27733

Technicals:
1. MACD is positive and rising
2. Price action is still very weak

Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling must pass by 5 June (next monday) and all the theatrics ongoing

Analysis:
1. Trade probably needs to wait till after debt ceiling passes to see if it continues to move up or falls.
2. I feel that it could move to either $35 level, or not pass recent high of $31
3. In any case, I think the season will be over with this last trade, and downward movement all the way to the end of the year.

Action:
1. $27197 Buy Trade is still in play and active.
2. Position is currently +1.97%

31 Mei 2023

Nota

BTC: $26901

Technicals:
1. MACD has made the first fall
2. Price action is extremely weak, the MACD uptick couldn't even muster 2 meaningful green days

Fundamentals:
1. Debt ceiling probably approved tonight

Analysis:
1. BTC has been staying at this level like a bad stench, refusing to make the move up for more than 2 months
2. The tide is turning for a downtrend till end of the year, however, there has been no FOMO event for years since 2018.
3. Closing the position may not mean anything with such low volatility
4. Compared to N100, BTC has not made the uptick, but yet is going down with it now

Action:
1. Trade still in play.
2. We will have to wait for 2nd down MACD. RSI is already moving down.
3. Position is currently -1.0%

2 Jun 2023

Nota

BTC: $27065

Technicals:
1. MACD (daily) has kept on its very weak trend, below 0, and turning negative
2. This is totally out of nature to turn negative so quickly, reflecting the weakness of BTC

Fundamentals:
1. There was a miniscule spike up from the approval of the debt ceiling to above 27K
2. There were strong payroll but no reaction from that

Action:
1. Trade still in play.
2. Fingers on the trigger, going down to 2h and 15m MACD for an exit

2 Jun 2023

Dagangan ditutup secara manual

BTC: $27065

Technicals:
1. 15m, 2h, 1D are all weakish, with very little upside (maybe up to 28k)

Analysis:
1. I felt that the downside risk is huge compared to upside, and with very weak price action, it is much better to exit this position

Action:
1. Closed position

Next Trade:
1. Looking for TQQQ entry (Trade idea 2023/4) at the end of June 2023.