mologna

BCN - Don't buy more just yet (and why I hate flags)

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COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
All,

BTC is of course gathering a lot of attention. Looking at the chart you can see a nice pretty "bull flag" forming - almost textbook. This times nicely with the overall market as FUD grows about Futures launch today and next week. It's a pretty logical consolidation time as weak hands drop coins and strong hands pick them up (my suspicion, at least).

If you are looking at opening a position on BTC, I would wait until we see some sort of move out of this downward channel. A more aggressive trader / holder can enter as soon as we get a confirming 1h/ 2h candle out of the upper trend-line, and a more conservative trader / holder can enter as soon as we break the flag and get a new ATH.

I hate flags on chart analysis because all they really are is a short-term bear channel, and so many people will tell you to buy the flag. It's horrible advice. The short-term channel could easily continue on, breaking the pattern and losing you thousands. This is why you should ALWAYS wait for a confirming signal before entering a new position.
Komen:
Bitcoin broke out of that downward channel and is now forming a second, smaller bull flag. If it breaks this bullflag and also breaks its ATH consider that your buy signal if you're a conservative investor. Aggressive investors should have already entered their positions.
Komen:
So if you caught that nice ride and you're swing trading, be looking for an exit again. The volume and RSI decreasing here is concerning.

I would expect at least one more drop to anywhere between $1400-1600 before a reversal will happen (if it happens).
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