Bitcoin Bottom "Are We There Yet?"
Telah dikemas kini
This market reminds me of a long drive as a child where it seemed like forever until we got where we were going and all we said to Pops is "Are we there yet?". Well the Crypto Market is no different right now, However, we must keep in mind we are still up overall 60% since August which is a great return by any metrics, and this is using only a simple buy and hold strategy.
This is not a time to panic or sell out if you believe in the technology. Do you think COMEX and the CBOE listed these equities if they thought they would go to zero in 4 months? NO and though it can, it is a risk I am willing to take. This is simply a short to mid term bear market. What I mean by short to mid term is less than 6 months "Alledgedly".
Technically we broke through the 7666 area and the selloff was swift. The next resistance level is at the 7246 level which we will once again look for a reversal signal. A breach of this level and we are likely to test the extreme low of 5865-6615. One note there is an interesting level that comes up on my chart around 6079. This is a unique level and one where we likely get a reversal if we do continue to pullback. It is also the recent previous low so there is likely to be major support here. I also want to mention a couple side items.
1) I added the moving averages because many are asking. I do not use them for longer term positioning though if I am day trading I do use the HMA's. But I am not daytrading so these are nothing more than "good news feeds" in my opinion. Most of the time selling at the "Death Cross" is selling at the bottom. We already broke the 200D SMA so it is already priced in in my opinion. However what I do use moving averages for is to look at the slope of the prevailing trend. As you can see the 50 day is slowly flattening out not increasing to the downside though a close this low will not help the bull thesis. The 200 is still slightly positive to flat. In my opinion the slope of the MA's is more important than a crossover etc. Looking at the slope of the moving averages provides insight to the slope of the trend. They are flat or neutral.
2) If you look at the failed double top it is setting up similarly here as a failed double bottom. Actually there are more and more Fibonacci levels that are around the 7250 level then I could possibly post and we just added another. The 0.618 extension of the previous bearish wave.
3) Why not sell and buy cheaper is a common question. Well regardless of the Oracles of TV' you never know when the reverse is coming. I again am not buying here but I definitely am not selling either. Years ago I was the perfect bottom finder when I did sell in times like these. I have learned its just better to hold and look for a reversal.
4) The levels we put on charts are there to provide us direction and areas to look for reversals either bull or bear. These are not crystal balls. But they provide a gauge as to the market conditions and give us some direction. Like driving the car you get here, you pull the map out and go OK I have to go this way.
Summary: Whether we go lower from here I am un-moved. I am in this for the long term and am looking for a level to add not sell. I remember only 2 months ago when I posted I was shaving some ETH at 1225 I received a ton of flak that we would never see 1000 again. Well just like that post I am not a seller here if anything I would be a buyer. Now I am not buying either until we get a signal. I know I am saying the same old same old but we are simply in wait mode and not being impulsive.
This is not a time to panic or sell out if you believe in the technology. Do you think COMEX and the CBOE listed these equities if they thought they would go to zero in 4 months? NO and though it can, it is a risk I am willing to take. This is simply a short to mid term bear market. What I mean by short to mid term is less than 6 months "Alledgedly".
Technically we broke through the 7666 area and the selloff was swift. The next resistance level is at the 7246 level which we will once again look for a reversal signal. A breach of this level and we are likely to test the extreme low of 5865-6615. One note there is an interesting level that comes up on my chart around 6079. This is a unique level and one where we likely get a reversal if we do continue to pullback. It is also the recent previous low so there is likely to be major support here. I also want to mention a couple side items.
1) I added the moving averages because many are asking. I do not use them for longer term positioning though if I am day trading I do use the HMA's. But I am not daytrading so these are nothing more than "good news feeds" in my opinion. Most of the time selling at the "Death Cross" is selling at the bottom. We already broke the 200D SMA so it is already priced in in my opinion. However what I do use moving averages for is to look at the slope of the prevailing trend. As you can see the 50 day is slowly flattening out not increasing to the downside though a close this low will not help the bull thesis. The 200 is still slightly positive to flat. In my opinion the slope of the MA's is more important than a crossover etc. Looking at the slope of the moving averages provides insight to the slope of the trend. They are flat or neutral.
2) If you look at the failed double top it is setting up similarly here as a failed double bottom. Actually there are more and more Fibonacci levels that are around the 7250 level then I could possibly post and we just added another. The 0.618 extension of the previous bearish wave.
3) Why not sell and buy cheaper is a common question. Well regardless of the Oracles of TV' you never know when the reverse is coming. I again am not buying here but I definitely am not selling either. Years ago I was the perfect bottom finder when I did sell in times like these. I have learned its just better to hold and look for a reversal.
4) The levels we put on charts are there to provide us direction and areas to look for reversals either bull or bear. These are not crystal balls. But they provide a gauge as to the market conditions and give us some direction. Like driving the car you get here, you pull the map out and go OK I have to go this way.
Summary: Whether we go lower from here I am un-moved. I am in this for the long term and am looking for a level to add not sell. I remember only 2 months ago when I posted I was shaving some ETH at 1225 I received a ton of flak that we would never see 1000 again. Well just like that post I am not a seller here if anything I would be a buyer. Now I am not buying either until we get a signal. I know I am saying the same old same old but we are simply in wait mode and not being impulsive.
Nota
I see a lot of comments on "Bubble" fear, capitulation, Greed etc.... Sounds great and makes for good you tube videos, but this is the reality of a bubble. Bubbles separate the weak from the strong pertaining to stocks or companies. Not all companies go to zero. Here is something you do not see on these so called "experts" sites. Those that lost were those that sold at the bottom.
Nota
This is why we keep saying "KEEP THE BIG PICTURE IN MIND". I'm not scared, attached, moved either way, or anything else. Cryptos is a small part of my overall portfolio and only if you have tooo much exposure should you be nervous. Bitcoin goes to zero so does the space!Yes I heard all the same comments concerning GOLD in late 2015. It was dead, going to $600 $450 even. The gold bubble has popped. Hmmmmm! Yes I started buying!
Nota
As we pullback from the 6615 resistance level we are looking at two levels of importance. The 7200 level is the level that needs to be broken for us to turn bullish. This level needs to be held. At this point I almost want to see two closes on the 12 hour chart to confirm.The level I am looking at for a continued decline is the 6427 level. Keep in mind between the 5865 and 6615 level this is an likely area for a reversal so being short here is dangerous.
Regardless of the calls for zero I am not selling here. If you do not believe in the space in general then invest in IBM and TSM as they both have blockchain exposure and pay nice dividends. Personally I believe this is just a typical correction that ALL markets go through. Scared money don't make money! I am actually looking at some alts like WABI and DRGN to add here.
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