Where BTC Top and Bottom in New Market Cycle? (based on 4-Y MA)
This is more of an "outside of the box" kind of perspective on when the top might come in and when (and around what price) the new "bottom floor" (base support - the price that price won't be able to trade below, with perhaps the exception of a quick weekly wick or two) comes in, after this new bull market cycle top is printed.
What I show on the chart is the length of time that it took the last bull cycle to complete after first testing the 4-Year (208 week) moving average (blue line). I then projected the next market top by adding the same number of days that it took between testing that MA and making the cycle top (840 days) to the most recent test of that MA, on the week of March 9, 2020 (as indicated by the vertical dotted green line marking that date on the chart). The predicted top comes out to the 27th of June, 2022.
Seeing as the 4-Year moving average (I'll now refer to it as simply "4Y") has acted as such a strong support in the past, I feel that it's reasonable to use it's projected price at the time of the projected correction (from cycle market top) as an indication of where to expect a new market floor (or "unbreakable support") - the bottom before the next market cycle.
To do this I used the trend-angle tool to connect the price of the 4Y when it was first tested during the last market cycle (on the week of August 24, 2015) to its price on the date that it was tested once again, after completing the cycle top (week of December 10, 2018), giving me the approximate angle between those two tests (approximately 27 degrees on my chart as I had it laid out, but it could show up as a different angle for you). You can see the connection of these points between the red lines on the chart.
I then projected out the same distance and angle (of the measurement I described in the above paragraph) from the most current test of the 4Y, presumably the starting date of this new (bull) market cycle. The next projected test of the 4Y, based on my described method, will happen on the week of July 3, 2023 at a price of about $71,000 (the exact number on the chart is $71,389.23, but it would be ridiculous to expect such a prediction to work out so accurately as to call for this type of precision).
That's a new market bottom that's still around 19K higher than the current ATH!!!
Crazy!
What do you guys think about this kind of analysis? Is it valuable? Interesting? Useless?
If nothing else, I think it's an interesting perspective that COULD be valuable in the future. Time will tell.
What I show on the chart is the length of time that it took the last bull cycle to complete after first testing the 4-Year (208 week) moving average (blue line). I then projected the next market top by adding the same number of days that it took between testing that MA and making the cycle top (840 days) to the most recent test of that MA, on the week of March 9, 2020 (as indicated by the vertical dotted green line marking that date on the chart). The predicted top comes out to the 27th of June, 2022.
Seeing as the 4-Year moving average (I'll now refer to it as simply "4Y") has acted as such a strong support in the past, I feel that it's reasonable to use it's projected price at the time of the projected correction (from cycle market top) as an indication of where to expect a new market floor (or "unbreakable support") - the bottom before the next market cycle.
To do this I used the trend-angle tool to connect the price of the 4Y when it was first tested during the last market cycle (on the week of August 24, 2015) to its price on the date that it was tested once again, after completing the cycle top (week of December 10, 2018), giving me the approximate angle between those two tests (approximately 27 degrees on my chart as I had it laid out, but it could show up as a different angle for you). You can see the connection of these points between the red lines on the chart.
I then projected out the same distance and angle (of the measurement I described in the above paragraph) from the most current test of the 4Y, presumably the starting date of this new (bull) market cycle. The next projected test of the 4Y, based on my described method, will happen on the week of July 3, 2023 at a price of about $71,000 (the exact number on the chart is $71,389.23, but it would be ridiculous to expect such a prediction to work out so accurately as to call for this type of precision).
That's a new market bottom that's still around 19K higher than the current ATH!!!
Crazy!
What do you guys think about this kind of analysis? Is it valuable? Interesting? Useless?
If nothing else, I think it's an interesting perspective that COULD be valuable in the future. Time will tell.
Penafian
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