BITCOIN broke the 10 month Resistance! Next levels to watch.

28 Jul 2020

At the beginning of the month (which I followed with an update one week ago) I posted the following idea that Bitcoin was trading within a Channel Up since the beginning of May, stressing that this was by far the more reliable pattern we would get:

** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **

** Touching the Higher High **
The expected aggressive break-out finally took place and Bitcoin touched today (even exceeded it marginally) the Higher High trend-line of this Channel Up. It is therefore no surprise that it got rejected as technically this is were most short-term traders would take profits.


** The MACD top and blow-off top **
The MACD on the 4H chart is giving an interesting signal to trade. The rejection took place near the 370.00 MACD level which on April 30 was the High ($9500) that took the price within the current Channel Up. What followed was a pull back and consolidation near the 4H MA50 before a final blow-off top (May 07 near $10100) that was the first Higher High of the Channel Up. Notice how the MACD made a Lower High on the price's blow-off top, which indicated the weakness.


** What's next? **
Right now we are on a similar situation, with the MACD as said on that April 30 top, rolling downwards. This suggests that if the price makes contact with the 4H MA50 again, it may rebound for one last blow-off top again, this time outside the Channel Up around $12000. In essence we saw the MACD inserting Bitcoin within the Channel Up in May and we may see the MACD pushing Bitcoin outside the Channel Up now.


Always keep in mind though that the greater picture is the following (wider) Channel Up (excluding the LIBRA, COVID anomalies) since the December 2018 Bear Cycle Bottom, and that we are close to starting the aggressive phase of the new Bull Market. So best to do is keep a long-term perspective and accumulate (buy) on every major pull back).

So what do you think about this idea? Do you expect the pull back to find support near the 4H MA50 and rebound to a new high outside the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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